How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Panserjeger said:

Looks like "Kalibri", Caliber ?

No, that should mean "colibri", but it is written with grammar mistake. Typical situation in Russia - level of education is falling lower anf lower. They swarm here "to protect Russian language from oppresion", but they themselves don't know how to write correctly in it.   

[db_zero]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, that should mean "colibri", but it is written with grammar mistake. Typical situation in Russia - level of education is falling lower anf lower. They swarm here "to protect Russian language from oppresion", but they themselves don't know how to write correctly in it.   

Does it have any meaning? A quote from a popular movie or name of some rock band?

[Haiduk]

Just now, db_zero said:

Does it have any meaning? A quote from a popular movie or name of some rock band?

Just the name of the tank

[Commanderski]

Just saw this: Swedish Air Force jet deployed over Belarus border in threat to Putin.

It wasn't a fighter jet but it was a Swedish Air Force jet. The article said that Sweden is now also supplying some weapons to the Ukrainians.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1586623/Swedish-Air-Force-Korpen-jet-deployed-Belarus-border-Poland-Putin-Ukraine-NATO-war-latest

[Haiduk]

Ukr troops on railway station Smorodyne in Trostianets (by unknown reason the station was named like nearby village, which already long time ago became part of the town). So, our forces at least pertially controls this town

[rocketman]

7 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Just saw this: Swedish Air Force jet deployed over Belarus border in threat to Putin.

It wasn't a fighter jet but it was a Swedish Air Force jet. The article said that Sweden is now also supplying some weapons to the Ukrainians.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1586623/Swedish-Air-Force-Korpen-jet-deployed-Belarus-border-Poland-Putin-Ukraine-NATO-war-latest

We have already sent 5000 AT4 to Ukraine and another 5000 are on their way. It has also been suggested by one party that we should send the decomissioned stock of Carl Gustaf recoiless rifles, but no decision yet.

[Haiduk]

Something hit Russian BMP (?)

 

[akd]

Vice reporting team ventures into Irpin:

 

[Kraft]

Lots of captured Russian soldiers on Telegram today, I saw atleast 4 different occasions with half a dozen or more being captured. I assume this is the result of the counter offensive, being uploaded / reaching us just now.

Seems the kindness is starting to fade a bit, on several occasions they were stripped almost naked and transported.

I feel the worst is yet to come though, with Azov starting to run out of space in Mariupol. I do not think the Chechen thugs will try to take many prisoners.

What will also be interesting is to see how the international volunteers there will be treated. I know Russia announced hardline treatment, but I am not sure Putin will risk obvious war crimes against them, atleast not openly in the street.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kraft

[Taranis]

@Haiduk Have you infos about the fighting/counterattacks in the area of Izium ?
Some says that the russian realised a minor breakthrough in the area (direction to the south), in view of the new concentration on Donbas ? Last news I've got was that UA was trying to cut it off by counterattacks .

 

Begin at 2:14

Haiduk : "Russians bypassed Izium from SW and crossed Siverskyi Donets river. Our troops stopped them near Topolske village with heavy artilelry strikes. Now there is a fighting to eliminate their bridgehead in this area. Also as you ould see aboove Russians are movins several BTGs from Sumy oblast to Izium and Siverodonetsk."

Edited March 26, 2022 by Taranis
Haiduk reply add

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Have you infos about the fighting/counterattacks in the area of Izium ?

Yes, I posted this 1-2 days ago. Russians bypassed Izium from SW and crossed Siverskyi Donets river. Our troops stopped them near Topolske village with heavy artilelry strikes. Now there is a fighting to eliminate their bridgehead in this area. Also as you ould see aboove Russians are movins several BTGs from Sumy oblast to Izium and Siverodonetsk.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, rocketman said:

We have already sent 5000 AT4 to Ukraine and another 5000 are on their way. It has also been suggested by one party that we should send the decomissioned stock of Carl Gustaf recoiless rifles, but no decision yet.

A couple of days ago it was reported that Zekinsky was asking for 500 Javelins and 500 Stingers a day from the US and that caused some push back. The distribution of AT and AA missiles to units is far beyond what would be considered normal in most armies-at lease from what I've seen from TOEs published, and this isn't counting other items like AT4s, Panzerfausts and other non guided munitions.

Its going to be interesting to see what the ratio of missiles fired to hits is once studies are done. Besides tanks, AFV and trucks, it will also be interesting to see if they've been firing lots of Javelins at static targets like buildings.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pentagon officials are becoming concerned about running down the stock of Javelins and Stingers in the US military stockpiles. I certainly would be as there is a global microchip shortage and the last thing you need is trying to ramp up production of weapons that use microchips when there is an existing shortage taking place.

Even “dumb” weapons like the AT4 has variants where the user can select target type and if it’s being fired inside a building and I would bet it uses microchips.

In addition to microchips, neon a gas used in the production of wafers is being looked at with concern as Ukraine is a producer of neon and it’s out of commission.

Going to have to keep track of the microchip market. If you have electronics on your wishlist you may have to be prepared to pay up. The stockpiles of weapons will probably need to be replaced and with countries ramping up defense spending the already stretched demand for microchips may get even worse.

Edited March 26, 2022 by db_zero

[dan/california]

If Oryx is anything close to0 correct, the Russians are losing over a BTG per DAY. If their so called reserves are in as bad a shape as the last two or three pages of this thread indicate, how long can they do that? Steve's total collapse theory looking stronger by the day.

[akd]

Illia Ponomarenko (Kyiv Indepenent’s defense writer) provides an assessment of the war after one month:

https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukraine-reaches-breaking-point-in-russias-war/

[Taranis]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, I posted this 1-2 days ago. Russians bypassed Izium from SW and crossed Siverskyi Donets river. Our troops stopped them near Topolske village with heavy artilelry strikes. Now there is a fighting to eliminate their bridgehead in this area. Also as you ould see aboove Russians are movins several BTGs from Sumy oblast to Izium and Siverodonetsk.

Thanks, I thought by mistake this was another "breakthrough" and the redeployment could be a reinforcement in view of an "enlarging / exploitation"

[The_Capt]

I don't think I have seen this posted yet, apologize if it was.  Pretty even handed:

 

[Battlefront.com]

I've watched two of that YouTuber's videos and they are quality stuff, so I'll see if he can go 3 for 3

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Sometimes Twitter is a cesspool. Sometimes it is not.

"I am the very model of a Russian Major General

My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable

My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal

Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal

 

I used to have a tank brigade but now I have lost several

My fresh assaults are faltering with battleplans extemporal

I can't recover vehicles but farmers in a tractor can

It's all becoming rather reminiscent of Afghanistan

 

My ordnance is the best but only half my missiles make it there

I would have thought by now that we would be controllers of the air

But at the rate the snipers work my time here is ephemeral

I am the very model of a Russian Major General"

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[The_Capt]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

I've watched two of that YouTuber's videos and they are quality stuff, so I'll see if he can go 3 for 3

Steve

This guy has to be in the business somewhere.  Acquisition or Investment Planning is my guess.

[sburke]

Russia says Azerbaijan enters Russian peacekeepers' zone in Nagorno-Karabakh (msn.com)

[akd]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Something hit Russian BMP (?)

Light AT weapon from close range.  You can see firing signature below the BMP right before hit.  The line extending “up” from the BMP after hit is the HEAT “jet” penetrating through the BMP and carrying on behind it. Appears vertical because of the camera zoom distance compression.

[db_zero]

President Biden is now calling for regime change in Russia:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-26-22/h_7dbce41e65428047cd28fdb679a43116

[Haiduk]

Officially. 93rd mech.brigade and local territorial defense, which acted like partisans during occupation, liberated Trostianets town in Sumy oblast. During the battle was hit the  comamnd center of 96th recon brigade and was defeated the elements of 4th Guard Tank Division

Trostianets is located on the H12 road Poltava - Sumy between Sumy and Okhtyrka. Both latter still encircled but Russians havn't enough forces to assault them and just shelled them with artillery, especially Okhtyrka.

 

 

Looks like one more abandoned T-80U in Trostianets

UKR soldier near abandoned 2S19

Railway station

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

20 hours ago, Holman said:

As an alternate example, imagine if someone came to their final conclusions about the value of armor by studying the WW2 Pacific theater and ignoring the European theater.

Agree! I don’t know if U.S. Army Landing forces used their armor the same way as the USMC did, but suspect that they did. USMC armor was used basically as support for the Grunts. If a Marine unit came up against a strong point that would be difficult for them to take, cave, bunker, etc., they would call in the tanks (light 37mm M5s) or M4s to reduce the strong points with HE or flame. There were very few tank to tank battles, primarily because the Japanese tanks were not very good. Unfortunately, later armor use and tactics were developed on European use because the Army could get more funds that way. Then, they believed their own propaganda.

I’m pretty sure the USMC’s use of tanks during WWII formed a major part of its decision to divest of it’s armor and heavy artillery. They just don’t fit the USMC mission to “Seize and secure advanced naval bases.” In my humble opinion, the USMC has been used incorrectly since the Korean Conflict, primarily because they have been under an Army Overall Commander in every conflict since WWII.

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, Holien said:

John IMO you are being a useful Russian stooge once again...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/10/twitter-deletes-russian-embassys-posts-calling-an-apparent-pregnant-ukraine-hospital-victim-a-crisis-actor/?sh=6e323ee73c2b

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60589965

As Womble politely asked you please engage what critical thought process you have

The truth is out there..... (Just not on certain US TV channels...)

 

Holien,

Definitely don't appreciate that label, and as my post should've made abundantly clear, am absolutely no fan of Putin.  It's readily demonstrable that both warring sides are lying, making determining the truth that much more difficult. Ukraine has been several times caught now using ARMA video to depict Russian air attacks, and Russia has made up all sorts of stuff, repurposed video, etc. In checking to see what I could turn up pro or con on some of the issues raised by you, I found this, which cites a range of sources, some unambiguously Left (The Nation), that paints quite the picture of things not being at all like what we've been told. Among sources quoted are The Economist, Deutsche Welle, and Al Jazeera. One bombshell in this article is that the CIA had training teams working with Ukrainian Far Rght forces, including Azov, starting in 2015, for  ops against the Separatists. The article talks about warnings given (posted to Telegram) of provocations (aka false flags) that would be done by Azov in Mariupol. It also talks about the lack of evidence, as described in The Economist, ref the bombing of the Mariupol Theater and notes reports to the Russians from fleeing refugees that Azov blew it up. A few days ago, there was at least one report by Ukrainian villagers that a Ukrainian tank rolled in and shot up their village, much to the consternation of the locals. I don't have specifics yet on this, but I now find myself wondering whether this might've been Azov at work. Believe this article will give you and others here much to think about as to what's really going on, who's involved and why. But my basic test is this: Who benefits and how? The below article is more than enough to convince me we're not even close to having the full story. And I would like to point out that before the invasion there was a ton of press coverage of Nazis in Ukraine, a topic that vanished as soon as Russia invaded, yet it is precisely one of Putin's stated objectives to de-Nazify Ukraine, which assuredly must mean that part of that declared mission has to consist of wiping out Azoz and other Far Right paramilitaries. From what I've seen to date, Azov seems to be doing quite well.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/neo-nazis-in-ukraine-fake-incidents-to-gain-more-western-support.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef0278807100f1200d

Regards,

John Kettler