How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

  

49 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Now what the hell does this mean? 

 

 

Typical Macron. Lots of flustering bluster, but too little, too late. This would have been relevant a week ago. Now? You'll just be carting away bodies. Plus Macron becomes Putin's propaganda tool.

Damn fool.

@dan/california Pentagon is (unusually) jumping the gun a bit, or mixing up Kherson oblast with Kherson city. The province/region is for sure contested. The city though, still has a strong RUS perimeter.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[c3k]

3 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

Since the Ukrainians have shown that they can beat the Russians almost anywhere and anytime of their choosing what kind of peace deal do you think they would accept?

I don't think the majority would want to give up any of the territory that the Russians have taken. If Zelinsky did allow some of the territory to remain in Russian hands there would still be insurgent fighting for years to come.

Full territorial integrity...including Crimea.

Russian (and Belorussian) military units at least ~25 miles on the far side of their borders. Reparations. 

Then, after 2-5 years of "good behavior", signed off by Ukraine, international sanctions can be lifted.

(Yeah, I'm in a dream world.)

[Kinophile]

On 2/28/2022 at 3:10 PM, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Hi everyone. Nikita here.

I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.

1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.

2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.

3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

How are things in Crimea now? Are you safe enough to post?

[mosuri]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Some about Russian gears... Here captured Russian recons. Four men. One dead, other probably wounded or just surrendered. This guy was captured barefoot - probably he had gumboots and lost them in the mud, when runinig away across the field. Instead the socks he has footcloths (rus. "portianki")

BMP-2 on background is Ukrainian.

 

 

I used foot rags in my Finnish army service in the early 90s. Quite comfortable in boots as long as you fold them properly.

[OldSarge]

Please leave the gas light on..

Quote

“In general, the main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed,” Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy, first deputy chief of Russia’s General Staff, said in a Friday briefing. “The combat potential of the armed forces of Ukraine has been significantly reduced, allowing us, I emphasize again, to focus the main efforts on achieving the main goal - the liberation of Donbas.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/25/europe/russian-general-calls-encirclement-of-ukrainian-cities-a-deliberate-plan/index.html

[Gary R Lukas]

This Russian Invasion reminds me so much of Operation Market-Garden, with the spring mud the Russian Armor is road bound and being picked off in large numbers by Aircraft, UAV's, Javelins, RPG's and all sorts of Anti-Tank Missiles, even Mines and Molotov Cocktails. The fighting spirit of the Ukraine Army is right up there with the Polish Home Army fighting in Warsaw, 1944. The battle footage we are seeing hasn't really happen in any major war in the past, but I'm just P&#*ed OFF with the Russian targeting of civilians, hospitals, shelters marked CHILDREN!!!  WTF???? If NATO can get off it's ass and send some Mig-29's to Ukraine that would really help them out. 

[dan/california]

Anybody know when we get the next pass of that NASA forest fire monitoring satellite that has been the best publicly available ground truth? Or did NASA decide it was better than anything the Russians had and stop releasing results for Ukraine?

[Kinophile]

On 2/28/2022 at 3:23 PM, Aragorn2002 said:

Exactly. I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. If Kiev holds I can believe it, but not before.

Yah I hear ya. Russia has deep reserves, unfortunately. 

Yet..so does NATO.

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I always like first person accounts.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/american-volunteer-foreign-fighters-ukraine-russia-war/627604/

@Haiduk what do you think?

I think that all should be present - both modern equipment and high-motivated personnel with proper combat spirit. Having combat spirit only there is too hard to withstand with "steam roller". And when you have modern weapon without a will to fight this is also useless (example Iraq army against ISIS).

Soviet and Russian propaganda created the image ot typical Ukrainain as funny ingenuous mild slightly cunning farmer, which likes to drink horilka (Ukrainain analog of vodka), eat borshch and salo. But our nation had not only farmers, but nobles and warriors too. Ukrainans have "frontier nation" mentality, formed during 14-17th centuries - in peaceful time it sleeps, but when hazard come, this "frontier call" wake up in "farmers" a warrior spirit. Ukrainians mostly "anarchic" nation. Unlike Russians we don't sacralize central power, we can self-organize and act with multiple control centers.  

 

Here the translation of good article how we make war NW from Kyiv. This is some artistic text, but it shows the same about told that marines.

But in first order some explainations of names in the text:

Wilderness (other name Wild Fields) - territory of modern Ukraine and partially of Russia SE from Dniepr (ukr. Dnipro) river to Black and Azov seas. Wide steppes, the theater of endless clashes with nomads, where cossack mentality and spirit had been formed. Best analogue is Wild West or Texas.    

Kholodnyi Yar (means Cold Ravine) - location in Cherkasy oblast forests, which several times became a center of rebellions up to the Soviet times in 20th years. The symbol of fighting for freedom and revenge, sung in poem of Taras Shevchenko in strings "and a new wind will blow from Kholodnyi Yar", like a vision of new fight for freedom of Ukraine

 

In the Kyiv region if full-fledged Wilderness. Just in one small forest near small village, which is being contested I counted Armed Forces, National Guard, Territorial Defense, police. some of glorious volunteer units, SOF, SBU, some mysterious unknown special forces guys with strange barrels and just armed muddy guys. 

All this stuff is constantly moving, engaging and withdrawing, someone is brought in, someone is taken away, and everyone tries to get rich with a weapon and ammunition from enemies or allies. Nobody has  coomunication and coordination with no one. The central commans if even exists, it doesn't control anything. Coordination is poorly feasible - it is worth to deal with someone on joint action, as in few hours you find another unit on their place. 

The forest is under systematical hysterical shellings of the enemy of different intensivity and succees level, from which all run away and later gather in new configurations. When the enemy tries to enter the village, our forces eliminate them and armed muddy guys run under fire to collect the weapons, smearing with a blood. Someone grabs Russian helmets, someone takes a shots of enemy corpses, someone writes combat reports. 

Or tank accidently encounters thre enemy BMPs, knoked them fu...g out and drove away. Fu...g shocked enemy infantry is decimated from three sides by unknown people. Whos tank was it, from where it came and where did it go, no one could answer

The single idea, which unites everyone like a cornerstone is TO KILL. 

This is Cossakship. This is the same "wind from Kholodnyi Yar", which hasn't a single center of coordination and supply - where all these people come from, where they arm themselves, where they go after, even they do not know. 

No one military academy in the world taught how to resist this. Welcome to the hell.                

[Kinophile]

"Russian invaded with 190k, vs 250k Ukr regulars, later augmented by 250k volunteers, 50k foreign fighters, and 400k Ukr men returning from abroad. RU forces lack supplies, and Ukr have modern weapons flooding in. RU will collapse very soon."

Now, the "250k UKR regulars"...I dont know about that. My impression was 100K actual effectives (not just combat). Also I've head the volunteers number is more like 150k, realistically. 250k came forward but of that 150 are actually usable, kind of thing. And the 400K returning...not sure. I'd buy 100K. The 50K foreign is down from the first number I heard (60k) but it might be possible. Yet to be seen. So lets be conservative and say 20K.

Still: 100k + 150k + 20k + 100k

= 370K highly motivated, well armed and fed, on home soil v. max 200K (incl reinfs) unhappy, ****tily lead and hungry Ivans.

My money is still on UKR.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Are we past the fog-of-war for Gostomel at this point? Initially we heard of one helo-borne wave. Then there was alleged more waves. Then we were told they were smashed and dispersed by a counterattack on the first night, but the information never confirmed that the Russians ever lost control/abandoned the airfield. I'm still not sure what really happened there, would love for someone to lay it all out and show the receipts to prove it. It is high on my list of events in the war that I want to see properly debriefed at some point in the future.

First wave of airborne was eliminated with artilelry and pushed off in counter attack during 24-25th. There was a video filmed by our soldiers on recaptured airfield, where many Russian trucks with V mark on the fire. Later Russian reinforcement of motor-rifle infantry, supported by tanks and later VDV, again seized the airfield. 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

50k foreign fighters

Indeed there is will be good if their number is around 1000. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think that all should be present - both modern equipment and high-motivated personnel with proper combat spirit. Having combat spirit only there is too hard to withstand with "steam roller". And when you have modern weapon without a will to fight this is also useless (example Iraq army against ISIS).

Very true, yup.

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

and just armed muddy guys.

The single idea, which unites everyone like a cornerstone is TO KILL. 

Terrifying. Thats the inevitable RUS defeat in a single line, right there.
 

Interestingly, Ukraine has a long history with anarchism, esp. during the Russian civil war. I guess some social through-lines just don't go away.

 

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[The_MonkeyKing]

54 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I think it means Macron is going to dare the Russians to start WW3, it is that or random hot air. We will have to see what they can pull together, and how quickly, in terms of an actual plan. given that the Russians have just demonstrated across the board military incompetence  I am fairly sure they don't want to start WW3. In fact in the absence of nukes I am fairly certain the Finns could take Moscow, based on the Russian performance so far, and the casualties and breakage Ukraine has inflicted.

I could see a naval operation to get civilians out and aid in.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I could see a naval operation to get civilians out and aid in.

Aye. Mariupol is a port, after all, and the sea is the only side they don't have Russians crowding round trying to gain ground. Interesting grounds for international legal wrangling... freedom of navigation in those waters has previously been asserted, I seem to recall...

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ukraine has a long history with anarchism

This is not classical anarchism, like in Bolsheviks Russia, which denies any form of ruling. This is self-govern tradition of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (where even the king was elected) + our "frontier mentality" 

During Russian civil war we have three different national powers from socialist democracy to authocratic semi-monarchy and back to socialist democracy until Ukranian People Republic lost war in 1920 to Soviet Russia.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think that all should be present - both modern equipment and high-motivated personnel with proper combat spirit. Having combat spirit only there is too hard to withstand with "steam roller". And when you have modern weapon without a will to fight this is also useless (example Iraq army against ISIS).

Soviet and Russian propaganda created the image ot typical Ukrainain as funny ingenuous mild slightly cunning farmer, which likes to drink horilka (Ukrainain analog of vodka), eat borshch and salo. But our nation had not only farmers, but nobles and warriors too. Ukrainans have "frontier nation" mentality, formed during 14-17th centuries - in peaceful time it sleeps, but when hazard come, this "frontier call" wake up in "farmers" a warrior spirit. Ukrainians mostly "anarchic" nation. Unlike Russians we don't sacralize central power, we can self-organize and act with multiple control centers.  

 

Here the translation of good article how we make war NW from Kyiv. This is some artistic text, but it shows the same about told that marines.

But in first order some explainations of names in the text:

Wilderness (other name Wild Fields) - territory of modern Ukraine and partially of Russia SE from Dniepr (ukr. Dnipro) river to Black and Azov seas. Wide steppes, the theater of endless clashes with nomads, where cossack mentality and spirit had been formed. Best analogue is Wild West or Texas.    

Kholodnyi Yar (means Cold Ravine) - location in Cherkasy oblast forests, which several times became a center of rebellions up to the Soviet times in 20th years. The symbol of fighting for freedom and revenge, sung in poem of Taras Shevchenko in strings "and a new wind will blow from Kholodnyi Yar", like a vision of new fight for freedom of Ukraine

 

In the Kyiv region if full-fledged Wilderness. Just in one small forest near small village, which is being contested I counted Armed Forces, National Guard, Territorial Defense, police. some of glorious volunteer units, SOF, SBU, some mysterious unknown special forces guys with strange barrels and just armed muddy guys. 

All this stuff is constantly moving, engaging and withdrawing, someone is brought in, someone is taken away, and everyone tries to get rich with a weapon and ammunition from enemies or allies. Nobody has  coomunication and coordination with no one. The central commans if even exists, it doesn't control anything. Coordination is poorly feasible - it is worth to deal with someone on joint action, as in few hours you find another unit on their place. 

The forest is under systematical hysterical shellings of the enemy of different intensivity and succees level, from which all run away and later gather in new configurations. When the enemy tries to enter the village, our forces eliminate them and armed muddy guys run under fire to collect the weapons, smearing with a blood. Someone grabs Russian helmets, someone takes a shots of enemy corpses, someone writes combat reports. 

Or tank accidently encounters thre enemy BMPs, knoked them fu...g out and drove away. Fu...g shocked enemy infantry is decimated from three sides by unknown people. Whos tank was it, from where it came and where did it go, no one could answer

The single idea, which unites everyone like a cornerstone is TO KILL. 

This is Cossakship. This is the same "wind from Kholodnyi Yar", which hasn't a single center of coordination and supply - where all these people come from, where they arm themselves, where they go after, even they do not know. 

No one military academy in the world taught how to resist this. Welcome to the hell.                

Made me think of this odd frontline reportage:

 

[keas66]

Interesting non-pay walled article :

 

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/exclusive-ukraines-defense-intelligence-chief-warns-of-real-hell-for-russians/

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yah I hear ya. Russia has deep reserves, unfortunately. 

Does it?  Putin already had to do some fast dancing over the conscript issue.  Full mobilization for Russia simply isn't on the table.  Putin would take a huge hit from the one group he seems to fear - Russian mothers.  It would also make it much sillier to call this a "special operation" than it already is.  These guys would also have to be thrown into the grinder with no training.  I don't see that going over well.  I don't mind adding a bunch more officers to our list but I think they might object.

As to non human resources Russia seems to have so many issues regarding maintenance and supply capability that I think Russia is just about at the limit of the force it can actually apply.

[Hister]

@Kinophileand others, thank you for taking the time bringing me up to speed on where things stand. 

The speed this thread grows daily is scarry. 

[womble]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

As to non human resources Russia seems to have so many issues regarding maintenance and supply capability that I think Russia is just about at the limit of the force it can actually apply.

Not to mention the difficulties they're going to face in replacing anything with semiconductors in it, or that needs something from the outside world to be made to work. Not that they've made the best use of any hitech they had at the beginning, it seems.

[akd]

21 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I could see a naval operation to get civilians out and aid in.

I was thinking same since Turkey was mentioned, as only they could provide escort.

 

17 minutes ago, womble said:

Aye. Mariupol is a port, after all, and the sea is the only side they don't have Russians crowding round trying to gain ground. Interesting grounds for international legal wrangling... freedom of navigation in those waters has previously been asserted, I seem to recall...

I think even if Crimea were recognized as legally Russian, they don’t have a right under international law to bar access through the Kerch straights.  Not that Russia cares, but could be pretext just to prove a point about Russia.

However, most likely this is just a Special Diplomatic Operation.

Edited March 25, 2022 by akd

[womble]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

However, most likely this is just a Special Diplomatic Operation.

Maybe so, but it made me sit up, and Putin has to put some thought into how he might respond if it goes ahead, and maybe burn some resources setting up preparatory moves. Even if it's just mind games, it's an interesting move. Though Macron is risking looking like a blowhard if the Russians don't play ball.

[Vet 0369]

On 3/24/2022 at 7:38 AM, Haiduk said:

Turret space launch. UKR Leleka-100 UAV is filming

 

I’ll bet the drone operator spotted the tracks in the lower left, and just followed them. So much for concealment from ground fire. One really has to start thinking in three dimensions.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, BlackMoria said:

An analysis of the tank's future is needed to be done from a position where such variables like above are equal across the board in 'the best data points' consideration.   If with the best tactics, logistics, maintenance, equipment designs, etc. that the tank is found wanting, then have the discussion of the future of the tank.  This conflict isn't rock, paper, scissors where the tank is rock.   This conflict is rock, paper, scissors, where rock is a pile of manure, the scissors are dull and the paper is arse wipe when considering the Russian performance to date.

I totally agree.  Fortunately, we all have a handy dandy simulation for that sort of stuff readily available to us   All it needs is a few more unit types and bingo, ready to go.

Until then, this simulations guy has no doubts about what he'll see when MBTs go up against a "full spectrum" force less tanks in 2025.  None at all.

Steve