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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 hours ago, Fernando said:

I don't think tanks are an obsolete tool. The key is to use the best tool for the task while all other tools support it. Using mechanized forces with little infantry in crowded terrain makes no sense. Attacking or defending in open terrain with light infantry but little armored support is pointless. Attacking a fortified line with armor and infantry, but little artillery is also meaningless. The Russians aren't using their tanks the right way, and their units are over-armored because of the wrong infantry-to-tank ratio, but that doesn't make the tank a bad tool.

This is sort of how I feel too. However I think there are perhaps several parallel discussions going on. 

* Is tank obsolete right now yes / no
* I have $50,- Bn to spend on R&D in 2025-2030, where am I going to spend it? Or: how much of the Leo/Leclerc 3 does one 'need'? Do we need to increase spending on armed/weaponized unmanned (aerial) vehicles? Or autonomous?! Will that affect tank funding? Are there cheaper / faster time-to-market alternatives? etc
* How much can one learn from incompetent show on basic every level
* What is new in this war vs Lebanon 2006, 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh
** Or CMBS. I think CMBS can model the current war quite well, although it will require an incompetent player and soft settings for the RED side. Now if only QBs would allow some UKR (pricey) ammo dumps with Javelins ;-).
* For lessons learned post war best to start with an open mind, instead of thinking 'tank obsolete' or 'nothing new to be learned'. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This is sort of how I feel too. However I think there are perhaps several parallel discussions going on. 

I think CMBS can model the current war quite well, although it will require an incompetent player 

 

finally a use for me in testing!

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4 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Heh, yes, I should have said claimed.
On the other hand, we do see debris falling from offscreen and what must be a long way above the dock (and nothing going up beforehand) as well as multiple small "explosions" rather than one big one. Or is that how Tochka missiles work?

Offshoot,

Tochka-U warhead has 50 submunitions in it which are impact fuzed and, if my tired brain serves, roughly half the weight of a Grad warhead. I posted this information earlier in the thread (pages 338, 339), together with a photo of the 9N24 submunitions being discussed. Though not as nasty warhead for warhead, being shotgunned with 50 of these from on high while unloading fuel, munitions, trucks, armor, etc. is a huge problem and quite a danger to just a ship hit, too, never mind any people who happen to be in the pattern. In that area you not only have those things but a warehouse (also destroyed) and two aboveground fuel tanks (status unknown). Further, there could be damage to the cranes as well. Post-strike imagery, preferably high res and in color would be most helpful.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited by John Kettler
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1 hour ago, Machor said:

From the article: Ukrainian troops' daily ration:

I think perhaps most telling for me was that the Ukrainians had enough of these to be giving one to the journalist as a memento. Though maybe it's just as inedible as any other "field ration", even if not out of date ;) And they are getting cakes from local factories. Talk about a morale win: just wafting the smell of fresh cake over Russian positions...

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34 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This is sort of how I feel too. However I think there are perhaps several parallel discussions going on. 

* Is tank obsolete right now yes / no
* I have $50,- Bn to spend on R&D in 2025-2030, where am I going to spend it? Or: how much of the Leo/Leclerc 3 does one 'need'? Do we need to increase spending on armed/weaponized unmanned (aerial) vehicles? Or autonomous?! Will that affect tank funding? Are there cheaper / faster time-to-market alternatives? etc
* How much can one learn from incompetent show on basic every level
* What is new in this war vs Lebanon 2006, 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh
** Or CMBS. I think CMBS can model the current war quite well, although it will require an incompetent player and soft settings for the RED side. Now if only QBs would allow some UKR (pricey) ammo dumps with Javelins ;-).
* For lessons learned post war best to start with an open mind, instead of thinking 'tank obsolete' or 'nothing new to be learned'. 

 

Been watching this thread since it started and we go through cycles.  When things really appear to start shifting on the ground (via social media) we get really focused on "what is happening".  Then when lulls occur in the newsfeed, we start to splinter off into sidebars and the like.  One could probably create an information overlay based on our activities that could tell a lot about how we saw it just based on the conversation threads. 

For example, if the Russians suddenly surrounded Kyiv, or signal a major collapse we will get very focused and the side chatter will likely stop.

 

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52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Twitter account of US volunteer. Many short videos 

 

I am out of words...... a real hero.  Choosing to make the world better by fighting and risking his life.  I hope that's the first of many AFVs his team smashes.  I wonder where this is. Once again we see UKR (+US) forces not only destroying RU forces but owning the battlefield afterwards.

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14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am out of words...... a real hero.  Choosing to make the world better by fighting and risking his life.  I hope that's the first of many AFVs his team smashes.  I wonder where this is. Once again we see UKR (+US) forces not only destroying RU forces but owning the battlefield afterwards.

This is in Lukyanivka, as mentioned above.  Another video from there:

Looks like it took an artillery hit to the side.

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Recenty known photo of Russian tank in the river, but here the new photo of the bridge. Russian driver thought his tank would pass such tiny bridge... Locals say whole crew is still in the tank. This is Plishyvets village, Poltava oblast and the small bridge through Psel river.

Зображення

 

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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I think with NATO rearming, especially Germany you're going to see even more tanks. Poland is going to get 250 M1's and Germany is going to crank up its tanks formations. Don't be surprised if other nations also buy tanks.

Tanks are perfect for mobile defense and provide excellent protection from artillery, NBC and are highly mobile.

Sure infantry ATGMs will have to be taken into account, remember though NATO is going to be on the defense. They can keep the tanks in the rear, use drones and indirect fire to break up attack formations, then launch devastating counter attacks with tanks in areas of their choosing that have been properly reconnoitered and prepped with artillery and other means.

Infantry with ATGMs is not well suited for this sort of tasks and drones can't occupy territory. Aircraft and helicopters can't occupy territory either. Infantry can only carry so many missiles and its a one shot weapon. The cannon on a tank can fire on the move accurately and can spit out a lot of firepower in rapid succession, plus the MGs on the tank can also pour out a lot of firepower.

There is mobility and then there is combat mobility and tanks give both. You just have to be good at using combined arms, conduct proper reconnaissance and operate in a a synergistic way.

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8 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

They may still be in this one too, it's upright but the hatch appears to be closed.

Image

This is August 2014 near Sygnalne vllage, Donetsk oblast. Failed "vacationers" tank atatck. Tank driver didn't know the terrain and when tank turned out under fire, he became to maneuver and retreat in revers and fell into the water reservoir or sump.

Edited by Haiduk
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3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Looks like the Ukrainians have closed the pocket, or at the least are VERY close. Do we have any idea how many Russian troops are cut off? 

they may not be totally cut off, but I expect they'll be leaving on foot if they leave.

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34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Anyone posted this?  First if genuine this is really impressive open source work.

In the early weeks of the war there was a lot of buzz about Russian Federation forces being picked up on radio. The open source guys were looking for journalists to help them make sense out of the material, and the result is that report (pretty good one too). 

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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I am out of words...... a real hero.  Choosing to make the world better by fighting and risking his life.  I hope that's the first of many AFVs his team smashes.  I wonder where this is. Once again we see UKR (+US) forces not only destroying RU forces but owning the battlefield afterwards.

I felt the same way as you!  Love this!!

Except he called a BMP-2 a tank!!  Come on!!!!  None of us CMers would fall into that trap!!  🤣

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10 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

In the early weeks of the war there was a lot of buzz about Russian Federation forces being picked up on radio. The open source guys were looking for journalists to help them make sense out of the material, and the result is that report (pretty good one too). 

So what I picked up on was

- Obvious comms issues leading to all sorts of OPSEC failures

-  Logistical issues “no gas, food or water”.

- No air support or serious lack of integration.

- Morale issues

- At least two possible warcrimes.

- A lot of C2 issues, confusion and disorganization.

Anything else?

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