How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

My first sighting of T-72AMT (Ukrainian) in this war. I would appreciate help with understanding what destroyed the second tank - I believe the Ukrainians are using military jargon that I'm unfamiliar with:

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 4:00 PM, womble said:

While it's possible that the US has a trace on every foreign boomer, they don't necessarily have targeting solutions on them all that can be prosecuted before they hit launch depth and fire of their nukes. Nuclear-armed subs are a first strike weapon, and if you're going to strike first, you don't care if your empty boomers are all killed; they were never going to make it back to port to re-arm anyway, largely because all the ports they might've used would be glowing craters shortly after the first strike was detected.

I think you can only wax any boomer if you are 100% sure you're gonna get them all in one simultaneous, coordinated strike. Because if someone attacks your first strike weapon, and they don't completely destroy it, you gotta use what's left before they sort their act out and sink the rest, or, you're right, there was no point having them. If you're doing it in response to a nuclear action, the party whose subs you are sinking has already crossed a line, and there's a good chance they'll escalate right along with you. Forcing them to "jump bid" straight to all-out ICBM launch might cause enough pause for thought to bring a halt to the escalation. But sinking an entire sub fleet inside an hour or so would be a heroic task, even for an outfit with as proud a record as the US bubbleheads. Probably only possible in a Tom Clancy novel.

 

womble,

Emphatically disagree! The purpose of the boomers is NOT first strike, but assured retaliation in the vent of one. The US built and deployed SSBNs to: act as a highly survivable return strike capability which would be viable even were the B-52s and ICBMs to be destroyed. Starting with the revolutionary Polaris on the USS GEORGE WASHINGTON, the US presented the Soviets with an almost inconceivably difficult challenge, one that got many times worse as better and better SLBMs were developed and deployed. When the Soviets got their boomers operational, they did much the same, but the US rapidly developed and deployed an entire array of means to deal with them. During the latter part of the Sold War, the Soviets developed the bastion concept in which their SSBNs, protected by sensor arrays, mines, attack subs, ASW helos and fixed wing air support, would operate as a secure deterrent force, while operating largely beneath the polar ice pack. This is true today, too. None of the above is to say that boomers can't be used for fist strike, but that wasn't the underlying philosophy on either side--during the Cold War or now.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 3:31 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Actions have consequences and so does inaction.  Anonymous affiliate is threatening large Western corporations that have not pulled support for Russian operations:

 

Soon Ukraine's Territorial Defenses will be better equipped than the Russians they are fighting.  Probably better at driving tanks too:

Steve,

Those firms still in Russia should be far more afraid of Anonymous than the Russians are of Ukrainian farmers in their tractors. Anonymous can do nuclear strike level damage to targeted companies.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

it was only a matter of time

 

 

As usual MSM way behind this thread ...

 

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 10:20 AM, Sarjen said:

Azov took a Raptor High-speed patrol boat out. (Project 03160)

 

Sarjen,

Russia denies it was sunk, but does admit it was damaged and is under tow to port. Here's what a Project 03160 ship looks like. Appearance is similar to SO craft operated on behalf of US Navy SEALs.

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russians-confirm-the-damage-to-the-raptor-class-boat-near-mariupol/
 

Regards,

John Kettler

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

As usual MSM way behind this thread ...

 

 

lol blame me.  That popped up on a news link.  probably old now but I laughed pretty hard.

[John Kettler]

On 3/21/2022 at 6:34 PM, akd said:

Sweet.

 

akd,

This is the same firm building the Armata series family of AFVs, including the T-14. If there's even a more contemporary CMBS, the T-14 may still not be included!

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

16 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

That can't possibly be the right tank, for this picture is from very early in the war and this tank was captured, I believe, by Azov.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Way to kick a couple of "respected experts" when they are down

The sad thing is that after this is all over I expect most of those numbnuts who made even the most outrageously bad calls will still have audiences willing to fund their next YouTube video.  That's the way this world seems to work.

Steve

In some ways, these epic fails are small potatoes compared to Dupuy's 'titanic overestimation of friendly losses in the upcoming GW I attack. HIs QJM (Quantified Judgment Model) used so successfully in many analyses, and influenced by the lessons of the Iraqi-Iranian War, predicted an immense horrible bloodbath on our end, yet there were only a handful on the US side.

Regards,

John Kettler

[THH149]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

My first sighting of T-72AMT (Ukrainian) in this war. I would appreciate help with understanding what destroyed the second tank

I dont know Ukrainian but the first tank doesn't seem to have been penetrated from the front/side, though its very hard to tell. The second obviously had a catastropic explosion.

One candidate could be a Ka-52 firing ATGMs from the rear perhaps, but that would suppose some kind of air power that we haven't seen since the first days of the war.

A different perspective might suppose that they are both pointed to the left and hull down behind the roadway and another road to the further left at a higher elevation (a poor defensive position for them I guess) so some kind of fire from the trees on their left or right.

Edited March 23, 2022 by THH149

[John Kettler]

Deleted.

Edited March 23, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Here’s something we haven’t seen yet, I think:

 

akd,

Just yesterday I was wondering when we might see our first one of these show up after watching that train with a whole bunch of them aboard. Can you ID the version? Good luck with that, given how much UI clutter is on top of it!

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 23, 2022 by John Kettler

[kraze]

8 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I don't see how Russia and current administration will ever restore relations with the West after all this mess. After some point they may not care at all. Now most of the media depicts them as orcs, hitlerisks, institutions boycott swan lake or Dostoyevski and so on. Imagine after some more months of shelling Ukrainian cities... They are down the road of no return. I don't think any other nation has done more harm to itself with a single military action in human history, and it seems it was due to tragic miscalculations. 

Besides Ukraine, I'm actually very sorry about Russia too. My father was a kid under the Nazi occupation of Athens, the famine killed hundreds of thousand people here, and his only hope was listening with a forbidden set, to BBC radio Moscow. The victories of the red army and liberation marked his life, and he was the one that made me a WW2 buff.  He introduced me to the series, "unknown war" with Burt Lancaster, that was a brilliant doc on the eastern front, and I got hooked. I grew up with an admiration for the sacrifice of russian (and all Soviet people) ,(despite my nick ) This war has put a big stain on Russia, that perhaps is not what it's people, rich culture and achievements like sending first man in space, really deserved. 

That would've been somewhat true in a reality where USSR wasn't an ally of Nazi Germany and didn't start WW2 together with Hitler.

Pretty sure Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland could chime in about all the "sacrifice".

Being the cause of so much suffering and then pretending you are the victim, when things inevitably go wrong, is the russian classic. You can even see it in every line to buy sugar today.

USSR may have sent the first man into space, but they tortured and broke the chin of the man who did it.

Edited March 23, 2022 by kraze

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

It is just ironic that Putin who wanted to restore what he saw as the glory days of the USSR has turned Russia into a pariah and for him even worse - a meme.

sburke,

Putin made it clear that what he was seeking to do was restore the Great Russian empire of the Tsars, not the Soviet Union. The RF emblem is not the hammer and sickle, but the double headed eagle of the Tsars.

https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2022/03/01/putins-dark-designs-restore-pre-1917-russian-empire

Regards,

John Kettler

[kraze]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

It is just ironic that Putin who wanted to restore what he saw as the glory days of the USSR has turned Russia into a pariah and for him even worse - a meme.

Because like with all the things in life - a knockoff is always a knockoff, especially when it's a cheap one.

[John Kettler]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

I was able to find this:

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-96K6-Pantsir-2K22-Tunguska.html

"Early variants of the Tunguska series introduced an electroptical tracker to provide silent angle tracking in jamming environments. The electro-optical tracking system includes a longwave (8 - 14 μm band) thermal imager for target acquisition and tracking, and a dual band short (3 - 5 μm) / midwave  (0.6 -1.1. μm) IR tracker for angular measurement of the missile beacon."

Then, there is this video:

What is your take on the screen at 2:45-48?

(Out of 'likes' today; will give one tomorrow to your Su-35 vs. TB2 commentary.) 

Machor,

Gave up too soon on my checking, I see. Concur that this version has a thermal sight (but apparently lacks an oh so helpful LRF to complement it), but the question I have ref Tunguska in the game is which version is being represented, and would the one you show have been reasonably available in the game's 2017 timeframe? ResearchGate shows Tunguska-M as entering service in 1990, but as we've seen in the current war, it's not necessarily rational to expect the latest war toys to be available, not with some version of the ZSU-23/4 now in action! Had no idea there was a likes limit, but am glad you enjoyed my analysis of the immense value the TB2 missile sponges really represent.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294263909_Tunguska_M1_operational_with_Russian_Army

Regards,

John Kettler

[Taranis]

 

 

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

Let's switch on Russian TV:  & 

 

Land corridor to Kaliningrad has the strong whiff of something similar in 1939 on that same coastline which ended in tears.  Of course they are talking out of their @rses when they say it would be 'even easier than what's happened in Ukraine.'  Personally this is where I would like to see Poland focus its efforts rather than banging on about no-fly zones, peacemaking/peacekeeping forces and transferring Migs.  I doubt the Kaliningrad Oblast is self-sufficient so 'interruptions' to power plus anything else in transit would cause enough grief there for starters.  Then I would just saturate the place with messaging.  Stick huge screens up on the border and play footage of Russian casualties etc.

[panzermartin]

34 minutes ago, kraze said:

That would've been somewhat true in a reality where USSR wasn't an ally of Nazi Germany and didn't start WW2 together with Hitler.

Pretty sure Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland could chime in about all the "sacrifice".

Being the cause of so much suffering and then pretending you are the victim, when things inevitably go wrong, is the russian classic. You can even see it in every line to buy sugar today.

USSR may have sent the first man into space, but they tortured and broke the chin of the man who did it.

The key thing here is about the "people". I'm not a fan of the way USSR functioned. Though some good things came out of it. I don't agree that some humans are fundamentaly flawed either. Russia will have to change after this, I just hope it doesn't happen with a big boom. 

[panzermartin]

I forgot to add about the sanctions earlier, that practically half of the world is still doing business with Russia. China, India, who is at the moment buying 4x more discounted oil from them, Pakistan who continues on their common gas pipe, Gulf states from Saudi Arabia to UAE who seem to start distancing from US and of course Turkey, the favorite bad boy of the West that is still occupying northern Cyprus 50 yrs later and is as much a fan of revisionism as Putin. Lastly, and not less importantly, Israel seems to not be that harsh on Russia and its one of the few that didn't send weapons. So, they might not ran out of tires after all , and might not collapse so easily and could find workarounds even in military tech, especially from China that the  West (and primarily US) taught them everything and made them the production giant they are today. Good job capitalism. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by panzermartin

[Sarjen]

Another insight into RF. Ethnicities/Minorities play a huge factor.

 

 

[DesertFox]

one more for the list

 

 

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The key thing here is about the "people". I'm not a fan of the way USSR functioned. Though some good things came out of it. I don't agree that some humans are fundamentaly flawed either. Russia will have to change after this, I just hope it doesn't happen with a big boom. 

On occupied territories Soviet soldiers committed atrocities that were no different from German.

They mass-murdered, raped, tortured, looted same as their Nazi counterparts.

In fact that famous photo of a soviet soldier putting red flag over Reichstag has his buddy wear multiple watches he just looted somewhere.

Comprehending another, very uncivilized and violent culture, that is very different from yours is incredibly tough. It makes it very hard to believe that what seems so evil to you - can be an absolute norm somewhere else. That's why it's easier to ignore it as long as it has no effect on you.

Which brings us here once again.

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just thought about this based on some posts above.  We've talked about Russia preparing for a 3 day "victory lap" around Eastern Ukraine.  We've all noted that all of Russia's logistics were based on that concept.  We have seen how bad this flawed assumption was in terms of Russia's plans.

However, what if they had taken over eastern Ukraine in 3 days?  Would things have gone much better for them after?  I mean, where were these soldiers going to be housed?  Does Russia have stocks of food sufficient for months of occupation?  Would they have much better luck keeping their trucks running smoothly even with no enemy activities?

Obviously this is all hypothetical and irrelevant, but it just occurred to me that Russia might have failed at occupation even under the most ideal circumstances.  Now there's a fun thought.

Steve

Well, the French bistro is derived from the Russian for 'hurry up!' (aka 'schnell!') which the Russians occupying Paris after Napoleon used to shout at the waiters....

Basically, the world's first 'fast food'.

And until our dear comrade @BeondTheGrave shows up to ruin a fun story yet again with dull as dishwater historical literalism , here is my muse Kamil Galeev's twitternote on that same episode:

 

...I'll finish with a little known fact. Borodino Battle near Moscow was the single bloodiest day of the Napoleonic wars. Russian soldiers stood all day beating off one French attack after another. They lost 39000 men, but didn't run away being gunned, shelled and charged by cavalry

You know where Russian army lost more men than at Borodino? In France. After Russian army occupied France, soldiers realised that this is a far richer nation. And after Napoleonic wars it has few men in countryside. So you can easily find a girl wit HER. OWN. PLOT. OF. LAND. 
In a rich country with few adult males who now how to farm their positions on sexual and economic market were great, far better than they could ever be in Russia. Bonus point, the country had no passport system, so you could just disappear and it would be hard to find you 
And the army started disintegrating. It probably lost around 45 000 men due to desertion, much more than at Borodino. Tsar Alexander was very upset and asked king Louis if he could find them. Louis said sorry no - and Alexander marched out with remaining forces out of France asap 
The same soldiers who stood to death against Napoleon when they had no way out, deserted in huge numbers the moment they saw they way out and advantageous perspectives after. So they voted by legs, ending Russian occupation of France quicker than planned 
This should be taken into account when planning modern policies. If you want to influence people, you should give them salt. And you give it to those who *really* need the salt you have. Napoleon deluded himself he has salt Alexander needs, but he couldn't offer him anything.

YMMV.

[kraze]

22 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Another insight into RF. Ethnicities/Minorities play a huge factor.

 

 

He is wrong in calling them "minorities" though. For minorities to be there - Russia has to have a majority. And there's none.

It's an empire that consists of about 30 countries that have absolutely different ethnicities, none is dominant enough in population.

So their army quite literally represents a generic composition of all ethnicities in Russia.

It's not that Russia is sparing slavs - it's just that they are a minority just like everyone else.