sburke Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Russian social networks confirmed next high-ranked deaths Colonel Sergey Savvateeyev, commander of Rosgvardia SOBR special police detachment of Vladimir oblast. Killed 3rd of March near Kharkiv during the column strike. You should remember that huge column and police shields in the trucks. AAAANNNND... Drumrollll.. Deputy of Black Sea Fleet commander, captain ot 1st rank (=colonel) Andrei Paliy who is the second guy? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
db_zero Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) We can make all the military and political analysis possible, but if you listen to those who have studied and know Putin the best it comes down to a man who has risked all on this venture. He is more dangerous when cornered and will grind Ukraine to dust and doesn’t care how many Ukrainian or Russian soldiers die in the process. If they are correct in their assessment then it’s a very scary prospect. Sounds like a situation where there are no good options just a range of bad ones. Edited March 19, 2022 by db_zero 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Kinophile said: The chat here re UKR smart hybrid doctrine vs RUS "dumb hybrid" is very interesting, especially the discussions re how UKR would do v Western doctrine ( because I assume Russia will at some point mimic the UKR approach, in done form). I would note, though, that for all the terrible carnage, Russia essentially gave Ukraine the only conditions possible for UA to survive the first 3 days. Let's not kid ourselves - RuAF was not doomed to fail at this invasion. It just had a really, really, really ****ty plan. Give it a good plan, give it proper operational surprise, give it proper Air campaign and support, push the d-day 3 months into late spring/early summer, use that time to properly agitate and confuse the UKR socio-political sphere, give it hypersonic decapitation strikes against UKR military leadership, give it's SF unts proper embedding time, give it proper destruction/subversion of UKR internet....and we would be talking about Putin's lightning war in Ukraine. ALL of the above is technically feasible and even routinely trained for by RuAF UKR is just incredibly lucky all the wrong Russian leaders were making all the wrong military decisions for all the wrong political reasons. Put some smarter people in there, have less emotional ego driving everything and this invasion would be very very different. Russia really screwed up but it is not done yet. well said, Kinophile. The only thing I'd add is that some actually smart person would've focused on ending corruption and making Russia's economy, education, and infrastructure work, while being a reliable business partner. Anyone Russian thinking that territorial conquest is the path to .... anything??-- is not smart in the first place; it's just ego, distorted nationalism and emotion doing the thinking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, sburke said: who is the second guy? I wrote in the middle - the deputy of human resourses of Black Sea Fleet commander, captain of 1st rank (=colonel) Edited March 19, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASL Veteran Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Haiduk said: I wrote in the middle - the deputy of human resourses of Black Sea Fleet commander, captain of 1st rank (=colonel) How the heck does the deputy of human resources of the Black Sea Fleet get killed? That's like the most deskbound of deskbound jobs that anyone could have in the military - and he was in the navy to boot! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet 0369 Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said: No, but they would most likely be leaving the country FROM Lvov and not Kiev, so your point about them leaving Kiev because they think it's about to be attacked would be invalid - that's what my point was. Of course, if they remained behind in Kiev for some reason or another after all the other diplomatic missions left, then your suggestion might be a valid one. OK, I can accept that. I was assuming they were leaving from Kyiv, ergo my statement. That makes second possibility stronger as far as I’m concerned. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Haiduk said: I wrote in the middle - the deputy of human resourses of Black Sea Fleet commander, captain of 1st rank (=colonel) sorry, didn't see that.. so how did they hit a Black Sea fleet officer. he go with Marines? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fernando Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said: How the heck does the deputy of human resources of the Black Sea Fleet get killed? That's like the most deskbound of deskbound jobs that anyone could have in the military - and he was in the navy to boot! A heart attack after learning the casualties suffered by Russian naval infantry. Edited March 19, 2022 by Fernando 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Steppenwulf Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Taking the number at face value, we have to keep in mind that this only represents the KIA from the operations around Kiev, it does not include all the dead left on the battlefield (or scattered, as it might be), or those who die from their wounds later. And it might be that this is not the only facility that is handling dead coming out of the Kiev operations, though it probably is A large number of whom have been incinerated in their vehicles, they will in most cases still be recorded as MIA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Just now, sburke said: sorry, didn't see that.. so how did they hit a Black Sea fleet officer. he go with Marines? Probably tried to rise their morale and combat spirit. This guy was born in Murmansk oblast, but military education gained in Kyiv. He refused to take an military oath to Ukraine in 1992 and departed to Russia. Judging on writings on the screen he was tough ideological USSR-follower. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armorgunner Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Javelin launch at...something. Probably at the truck or armored car - the soldier cries "Yeah! Directly in the cabin!" Please dont use up the Javelins on targets, that cost much less than the missile! Tanks, and IFV´s is fine! But a truck, or armored car? you can destroy it with a legacy M72 LAW, or a MG with AP bullets in the later case. Save the Javelins for the heavys! Or are they drowning in Javelins? Edited March 19, 2022 by Armorgunner spelling 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Could have been a high level officer, or real bleep of a FSB guy, or it could have been they were on the pointy end with a missile and saw a target? I just hope they live thru the war to tell us, and on that note I would be displacing from that spot like I meant it. You never know when you are going to trip over a couple of competent Russians. 6 minutes ago, Armorgunner said: Please dont use up the Javelins on targets, that cost much less than the missile! Tanks, and IFV´s is fine! But a truck, or armored car? you can destroy it with a legacy M72 LAW, or a MG with AP bullets in the later case. Save the Javelins for the heavys! Or are they drowning in Javelins? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Armorgunner said: Please dont use up the Javelins on targets, that cost much less than the missile! Tanks, and IFV´s is fine! But a truck, or armored car? you can destroy it with a legacy M72 LAW, or a MG with AP bullets in the later case. Save the Javelins for the heavys! Or are they drowning in Javelins? field practice 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) @sburke Addition about Vladimir SOBR. Savvateyev was deputy SOBR comamnder. This is twitter of local citizen, probably former policeman. He wrote next: Yesterday in Vladimir have took leave of four senior officers of SOBR of Vladimir oblast Rosgvardia Directorate: - lt.colonel Ilya Piatkin, 38 years - lt.colonel Roman Ryabov, 50 years - lt.colonel (likely) [colonel - my remark] - Sergey Savvateyev, deputy SOBR commander, 50 years - lt.colonel (likely) Mikhail Rodionov, 46 years Do you understand all scale of this f...k? For 30 years of Vladimir SOBR existing we had no one lose of personnel. And yesterday for one day we have buried all it chiefs! How much junior officers then lost?! Cited list of KIA here: https://t.me/ilyakosygin/1929 Edited March 19, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Haiduk said: @sburke Addition about Vladimir SOBR. Savvateyev was deputy SOBR comamnder. This is twitter of local citizen, probably former policeman. He wrote next: Yesterday in Vladimir have took leave of four senior officers of SOBR of Vladimir oblast Rosgvardia Directorate: - lt.colonel Ilya Piatkin, 38 years - lt.colonel Roman Ryabov, 50 years - lt.colonel (likely) [colonel - my remark] - Sergey Savvateyev, deputy SOBR commander, 50 years - lt.colonel (likely) Mikhail Rodionov, 46 years Do you understand all scale of this f...k? For 30 years of Vladimir SOBR existing we hadn't no one lose of personnel. And yesterday for one day we have buried all it chiefs! How much junior officers then lost?! Cited list of KIA here: https://t.me/ilyakosygin/1929 The entire bleeping command group eliminated. How long for what is left of that unit to do ANYTHING!? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, dan/california said: The entire bleeping command group eliminated. How long for what is left of that unit to do ANYTHING!? yeah really. Imagine the next guy in line. "hey hear you are up for a promotion' yeah no thanks. Going for a Covid shot Doctor "Do you have a pre existing condition" Russian Officer "well I am fairly high ranking and being sent to Ukraine" Doctor sets syringe down and says "no need for this then." Edited March 19, 2022 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Tanks. Or, a tank. Sorry for Reddit again. What struck me most was the number of autoloader-ejected cases on the ground at both firing positions- they're clearly not playing shoot-and-scoot. That's not necessarily an outright bad thing in the right environment, but it seems like a poor life choice what with the incoming at 1:02. Also looks like the first position is a prepared tank hole so maybe they're playing "Donbass Static" rules. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 1 hour ago, dan/california said: I am fairly sure the Russian guy in question is well around the fascist bend, but his view of the military situations seems very close to board consensus that the Russians best scenario now is losing slow and ugly. If that really did come from Strelkov, that all makes sense to me. He's a Russian nationalist, not a Putinist. Which bring up an interesting point. There are two groups of Russians that are critical of this war. The first group is the type that doesn't think this war should be fought at all, the second group thinks it should BUT that Putin is screwing it up. The first group is the one that is more likely to protest, the second is more likely to commit acts of terrorism and treason against Putin The hardcore nationalists are very violent and not mentally stable. Putin is more likely afraid of the hardcore nationalists than he is of the protestors. This reminds us that Putin might be deposed by a group of people that is even more violent minded towards Ukraine than Putin is. Fortunately, history shows that the more radical a group is the less likely they are to succeed. Radicalism does not lend itself to clear and rational thinking, so they will make mistakes enough to cause their own downfall. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, Armorgunner said: Please dont use up the Javelins on targets, that cost much less than the missile! Tanks, and IFV´s is fine! But a truck, or armored car? you can destroy it with a legacy M72 LAW, or a MG with AP bullets in the later case. Save the Javelins for the heavys! Or are they drowning in Javelins? Notice the Jav gunner's two escorts are looking all around the sky. Or at least it seems like it. This might be the "new normal" for small units. They really do have to be careful about being spotted by a drone. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Interesting comparison of Russian losses in previous campaigns - from an AP article on Marketwatch Estimates of Russian deaths vary widely. Yet even conservative figures are in the low thousands. That’s a much faster pace than in previous Russian offensives, threatening support for the war among ordinary Russians. Russia had 64 deaths in five days of fighting during its 2008 war with Georgia. It lost about 15,000 in Afghanistan over 10 years, and more than 11,000 over years of fighting in Chechnya. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Wow, NATO gets a lot of crap for being slow and bureaucratic, but they can move VERY fast when they feel like it. Apparently Patriots are already on the way to Slovakia as part of the deal for them sending their S-300 off to Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Notice the Jav gunner's two escorts are looking all around the sky. Or at least it seems like it. There is a sound of aircraft heard and explosion before Javelin launch 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Abandoned Russian entrenchments along the road. Location unknown. Our soldier says "we disloged them from..." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 Report that a Russian GRU unit was wiped out in the Saltovka area of Kharkiv. The description makes it sound like the Ukrainians figured out the unit was at a specific place and they swooped in and wiped them out. According to the article 15 dead Russians and one Ukrainian with significant wounds: https://inforesist-org.translate.goog/smi-neskolko-bojczov-vsu-likvidirovali-rossijskij-elitnyj-specznaz-v-harkove/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Abandoned Russian entrenchments along the road. Location unknown. Our soldier says "we disloged them from..." No dispersion, and no attempt at overhead cover. Is the russian army out of plywood and sand bags, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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