How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

I've been hoping to see more optics and imagers in UKR infantry hands. Not many vis with regular army show them. SOF doe, naturally. 

[Kinophile]

10 minutes ago, akd said:

Claim that the 8th CAA commander General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev was killed in the strikes on the forward base at the Kherson airport:

 

Not just on the base, but hitting his command post specifically, which is why several of his staff died with him. Killing those guys is a real organizational blow. They have so much in their heads, their intuition, situational "feel" and experience are very non-transferable to the new guy filling their boots. 

Where as UKR commanders are still in place, growing in experience and ability.

A very nicely done decapitation strike.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yep, I wondered this too; my impression was that the UKR units in the area were above par. You mentioned before that one of the better UKR units was in maneuvers/exercises and was caught out of cohesion by the assault. Bit of a daft time to go do exercises, considering the recent tension then.

Hm... I can't recall this ) Judging on many abandoned/destroyed BRDM-2, the isthmus was defended by units of some motorized-infantry brigade (56th?) with some, probably 55th, artilelry brigade support (abandoned 2A65 near the bridge)

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

Claim that the 8th CAA commander General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev was killed in the strikes on the forward base at the Kherson airport:

 

so we are now at 25% of the officers commanding at this level?

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I've been hoping to see more optics and imagers in UKR infantry hands. Not many vis with regular army show them. SOF doe, naturally. 

Typically, our mech.infantry company can have 1-2 Archer thermal sights for PKM and 3-4 thermal cameras for surveilance + additionaly some NV devicse as civil volunteers aid. Air-assault units equipped with AN/PVS-14 NV devices and Archer thermals

[womble]

1 hour ago, Erwin said:

In the past I noted that if the Russian forces simply sit tight and hold onto what they have captured, that would make Ukraine a non-viable nation.

What military power has Ukraine got to attack with to remove the Russians?  If Ukraine needs a 3:1 ratio to be successful, they probably can only attack one Russian enclave at a time.  That would almost certainly require weakening their forces elsewhere - opening opportunities for Russian attacks there. 

They don't have to attack to remove them. It's been said a few times: if the Russians dig in, they'll be the ones under siege. They may be able to "forage" on the local populace, to some extent, for a while,  but they won't be able to resupply munitions with any degree of reliability. That's if the Russian economy remains capable of functioning to a sufficient degree to keep manufacturing the munitions. Eventually, any Russian occupation will wither on the vine.

They don't have enough of anything to make an impermeable line of control and their rear areas will be a hotbed of resistance. Yes, this will become a long term standoff, if Russia doesn't failback sooner rather than later, but the Ukrainians don't seem to be in a giving up kind of mood. And while public interest might wane, that didn't stop Governments helping the Muj out in Afghanistan.

[Vet 0369]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Drones have posed all kinds of problems for traditional AD systems.  Which makes sense because when you design something (like an SAM system) you have to make certain assumptions.  Nobody had drones in mind when the traditional (legacy) systems were designed.  Likewise, designing a heat seeking missile doesn't do much if the target doesn't have enough of a heat signature to track.

I wonder what Russia is using to shoot down the TB2s.  Cannon from helicopters might be the most effective?  Helicopters have far more control over speed and altitude than a fixed wing aircraft does.

Steve

Well, while playing CMBS AS THE u.S. against a friend playing Russians, I found the Tunguska to be deadly against my ravens and or the drones.

[Haiduk]

UKR HMMWV in action

 

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

But it is all going according to plan!

Putin is rumored to be purging the Kremlin of Russian officials he blames for the faltering invasion of Ukraine (msn.com)

If this is going according to plan? I wounder what that plan looked like? The destruction of Russias economy? The destuction of the Russian army elite divisions? Exactly what is going on as planed?

[The_Capt]

Oryx is up to 500 Russian logistical vehicles as photographed/filmed as lost.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

That is a full third of Russian overall recorded losses.  That is also coming up on 2 x CAAs worth.  

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

@Armorgunner as Eddie Izzard once said:

"For someone who supposedly has a plan, this looks awfully like he doesn't have a plan..."

He was referring to God but still...holds true here also...

[Kinophile]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Typically, our mech.infantry company can have 1-2 Archer thermal sights for PKM and 3-4 thermal cameras for surveilance + additionaly some NV devicse as civil volunteers aid. Air-assault units equipped with AN/PVS-14 NV devices and Archer thermals

To be clear, those amounts are the total for the entire company as a whole?

[panzermartin]

Something is suspicious to me about the false intelligence. Even we knew, that Ukraine with NATO training, modern equipment, and a good percentage of population absolutely hating russians, would be a deadly opponent to any force. Heck even the US army would probably suffer heavy losses there. How on earth did his advisors fail to grasp that. They even had people in Ukraine for years that shared Intel. I have a theory that this could be a setup with the hope of weakening Putin. He is talking about traitors and you are talking about corruption. What if these people were bribed or infiltrated by the West to lure Putin into a dangerous military adventure. 

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Footage from Russian Ka-52, damaged during assault of Hostomel airfield 24th Feb. On 1:29 pilot says "Guys, I'm hit, keep control, emergency landing"

 

 

I must admit to being a bit confused by this. First, was he using a Go-Pro or something to record this since the Ka-50 is a single seat, or is the Ka-52 a pilot and a weapons officer like the Mi-24? Also, what was that string or line that was tied across the poet window/door at about 1:40 in the video?

[akd]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I must admit to being a bit confused by this. First, was he using a Go-Pro or something to record this since the Ka-50 is a single seat, or is the Ka-52 a pilot and a weapons officer like the Mi-24? Also, what was that string or line that was tied across the poet window/door at about 1:40 in the video?

Ka-52 has two crew, side-by-side.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder how long they can tow them before there is a failure in one of the helicopter's wheels/axles. Such systems have design tolerances for such things as weight and heat (friction).  For a helicopter wheel the design assumptions might not include prolonged towing.  Then again, Russia might have taken such situations into account when designing the wheels/axles.

Steve

Nothing about their tire-wheel-bearing-axle-maintenance is the least bit reassuring on this.

[Phantom Captain]

5 hours ago, Combatintman said:

I don't know the answer to the whole question but if we go back to the Soviet era regimental artillery battalions and divisional artillery regiments.  Each battalion essentially had one truck allocated per firing system plus a couple spare.

2S1 Battalion had 6 x 2S1 and 6 x trucks (Ural-375) in each battery for a total of 18 x 2S1 and 18 x trucks.  There were another two on top of that for a total of 20 trucks (not counting small trucks like Gaz-66s, maintenance and POL trucks).

2S3 Battalion figures are the same 6 x 2S3 per battery and 6 x trucks for that same total of 18 x 2S3 and 18 x trucks plus two 'spare.'

BM21 Battalion figures are 6 x BM-21 per battery and 6 x trucks (bored yet  ) 18 x BM-21 in the battalion and (slight difference here) 36 x trucks in the battalion.  The extra 18 trucks, which is suspiciously similar to the number of launchers sit in the service battery, which the gun/howitzer battalions didn't have.

Taking a divisional artillery regiment alone then of 2 x 2S3 battalions and 1 x BM-21 battalion you are looking at 72 x trucks allocated for ammunition resupply.

For simplicity I have not counted the 36 trucks in the Regimental MT company because I don't know whether they would have been allocated to ammunition  resupply or not.

Now I have no idea how much 122mm or 152mm a Ural-375 can carry but there will be a gunner out there who can give some sort of answer.  I would hazard a minimum of two reloads and of course each 2S1 and 2S3 would have had a turret load of some description.  I think I'm on safer ground by saying that you'd get one BM-21 reload only on a Ural-375 and that seems to explain the presence of the service battery in that battalion to provide a second reload plus of course those that are already in the tube. 

Of course this is not the Soviet Army any more but the principle will be the same at the divisional level and below so one gun = 1 truck and 1 rocket launcher = two trucks for the big bangy bullety whizzbangy carrying malarkey.

 

Thank you!  This is the kind of breakdown I was looking for.  Most illuminating!

[womble]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Nothing about their tire-wheel-bearing-axle-maintenance is the least bit reassuring on this.

I would have thought the shocks of landing and stresses of taxiing would expose such deficiencies pretty quickly. Further, these are aviation machines, and even if the standard of maintenance isn't quite up where you might expect it in NATO service, the things have to have a fair bit of care and attention just to keep them flying safely enough that their crew don't just refuse to fly them...

[dan/california]

Putin is clearly demanding his entire army die in Ukraine.

[BlackMoria]

Canada's UN Mission twitted a letter from the Russian UN Mission that was sent to all member countries.  Canada's UN Mission decided to troll hard the letter by marking it up and returning to the Russian UN Mission.

 

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian VDV checkpoint somewhere NW from Kyiv.

 

Why was the “STOP” sign on the bar at 1:20 or so, in English? Do Russians use the word “STOP” also?

[pintere]

6 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Canada's UN Mission twitted a letter from the Russian UN Mission that was sent to all member countries.  Canada's UN Mission decided to troll hard the letter by marking it up and returning to the Russian UN Mission.

 

Classic Canada. Not always willing to walk the walk, but can definitely talk the talk! In this case it’s actually kinda awesome though.

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Awesome, yes please, by all means dig your own graves - errrrr I mean dig in.

Got some sunflower seeds?...You'll need those so we can find you in a few months.

EDIT: That would be a great pysops campaign, use drones to drop packets of sunflower seeds before an attack or after a strike.

Put Putin's grinning face on the outside, so it's really nice and clear who's the reason for this ****show.

Edited March 18, 2022 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Putin is clearly demanding his entire army die in Ukraine.

And maybe this the future.  Russia tries to dig in and UKR doesn't want to frontally attack.  So UKR fights a war against supply lines and hopes the RU units will break as they run out of supplies.  So can RU actually protect supply lines to all these disparate areas while having sufficient strength to make something that looks like 'front lines'?  I guess we shall see.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder how long they can tow them before there is a failure in one of the helicopter's wheels/axles. Such systems have design tolerances for such things as weight and heat (friction).  For a helicopter wheel the design assumptions might not include prolonged towing.  Then again, Russia might have taken such situations into account when designing the wheels/axles.

Steve

Russian/Soviet aircraft were designed to use rough/unimproved airfields. Their helicopters routine use a rolling takeoff under most conditions, and especially when heavily loaded. Based on my 50+ years in aviation and aviation maintenance, I expect, and assume, that those frictions and stresses that are experienced during takeoff and landing are much worse than simple low speed towing when basically at empty weight.