How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I have. As far as I remember, the humans launched a tactical nuke at the Skinnies' water supply so it would be irradiated for 10,000 years. Hopefully that's not what's going on in Belarus, but I think you might be remembering some other incident of the book? It's a long time since I read it.

Hmmm... I don't remember that.  What I remember was the Troopers going to a Skinny's city and "bouncing" around it blowing stuff up while trying to make a point.  IIRC they Heinlein wrote it so the Troopers were actively avoiding causing an casualties, just trying to scare them into not going neutral and thus negatively effecting the war against the Bugs.  That's the way I remember it anyway!  I read it probably 30 years ago so there's that

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

I think the whole thing about who has javelins and who has tanks is not really so important... drone missile strikes and drone guided artillery strikes are probably what's causing the most damage.

From the videos I've seen, it looks to me as if the Russians don't even realise drones have been invented.

They park their vehicles closely together inside forests or dug into the ground as if they think the important bit is to not be spotted horizontally, when the real danger is hanging above them.

[Vet 0369]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another late breaking follow up to the Belarus reports:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/few-facts-much-speculation-as-explosions-heard-in-belarus/

There might be two separate things going on simultaneously.

Who here has read the original Starship Troopers (i.e. not the movie book)?  Remember what the Humans did to the Skinnies?

Steve

I have Steve, I also owned and played the Avalon Hill game in the late 70s. Are you talking about the preemptive attack or Rico firing his nuke because they weren’t supposed to take any back? Amazing that the author, Robert A. Heinlein also wrote “Stranger in a Strange Land,”which became the Bible of the “Counter-Culture” revolution (i.e. Hippies). I just can’t “Grok” it. 

[sburke]

Time for a break and an oldie but goody.

aah stranger in a strange land, great book - In 2012, the Library of Congress named it one of 88 "Books that Shaped America"

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmmm... I don't remember that.  What I remember was the Troopers going to a Skinny's city and "bouncing" around it blowing stuff up while trying to make a point.  IIRC they Heinlein wrote it so the Troopers were actively avoiding causing an casualties, just trying to scare them into not going neutral and thus negatively effecting the war against the Bugs.  That's the way I remember it anyway!  I read it probably 30 years ago so there's that

Steve

The bomb that announced its countdown was the best example. It literally squawked "I am a thirty second bomb, 29,28,27, why aren't you running yet, 19, 18 , 17, 16, you're all gonna die 11, 10...". I thought it was a brilliant idea then, and still do, for the right mission.

[TheVulture]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hmmm... I don't remember that.  What I remember was the Troopers going to a Skinny's city and "bouncing" around it blowing stuff up while trying to make a point.  IIRC they Heinlein wrote it so the Troopers were actively avoiding causing an casualties, just trying to scare them into not going neutral and thus negatively effecting the war against the Bugs.  That's the way I remember it anyway!  I read it probably 30 years ago so there's that

That matches my memory of the opening scene of the book. They hit the Skinny city and basically rampage through it destroying infrastucture and strategic targets as a kind of punitive raid. I'm not sure they were trying to avoid casualties (IIRC Rico bounces in to a building full of skinnies, so he drops a tac nuke and gets out again before they can react). But the point was to make a lot of noise and visible damage, hitting high visibility targets for maximum psychological effect.

[db_zero]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have no doubt that Ukraine is taking losses.  But for 2+ weeks now the Russians have definitely not cleared out the area around Kiev by a long shot.  The thought of them storming a city of Kiev's size without doing that, not to mention their crap resupply history, is not going to work.

I don't doubt they've captured quite a bit of war booty.  But what good does that do Russia?  Even 100 Javelins doesn't begin to compensate for all the stuff they've lost in the past couple of weeks.

The evidence of systemic Russian failure is plain enough to see and we know Ukraine has tens of thousands of fighters yet to be introduced into war.  Not seeing Ukraine's losses doesn't change the basic equation.

Steve

I agree the Russians are not in a position to storm Kyiv, but Putin is psycho enough to cause as much death and destruction on Ukraine.

Targeting of Ukrainian arms factories looks like that is coming.

Also hearing S300s may be sent to Ukraine.

[db_zero]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the whole thing about who has javelins and who has tanks is not really so important... drone missile strikes and drone guided artillery strikes are probably what's causing the most damage.

From the videos I've seen, it looks to me as if the Russians don't even realise drones have been invented.

They park their vehicles closely together inside forests or dug into the ground as if they think the important bit is to not be spotted horizontally, when the real danger is hanging above them.

Unreal, but given what we’ve learned about the over centralized nature of the Russian military, lack of secure communications, GPS, NVG and other equipment the West takes for granted, the Russians may be bunching up to maintain command and control…they have no choice and can’t adapt quickly.

[LukeFF]

43 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Seeing report that Russians are slowing inching way forward towards Kyiv with fighting concentrated around a couple of regions on the outskirts.

It been suggested that Russia wants to get closer to get their self propelled 152mm artillery in range of city center so they can reduce the city in a week or 2. 

We've been hearing that for the last month.

[Homo_Ferricus]

On the topic of staying objective on Russian progress/status, this guy again:

 

 

Also some analysis of the Brovary ambushes caught on drone cam, but nothing much we haven't discussed here already. First 5 minutes or so were interesting for me.

Hopefully not a repost--this was uploaded yesterday but I haven't seen it in this thread.

[db_zero]

11 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

We've been hearing that for the last month.

Unfortunately now it seems like a real possibility. 

[Bulletpoint]

5 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

On the topic of staying objective on Russian progress/status, this guy again:

 

 

Also some analysis of the Brovary ambushes caught on drone cam, but nothing much we haven't discussed here already. First 5 minutes or so were interesting for me.

Hopefully not a repost--this was uploaded yesterday but I haven't seen it in this thread.

I find him too annoying to really watch... but yes, it's clear that there's a side of the war we're not getting to see.

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Unfortunately now it seems like a real possibility. 

how so?  I haven't seen anything to say the Russians are advancing and some stuff that suggests they have lost some ground

[The Steppenwulf]

3 hours ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

It's hard keeping up in this thread and trying to have a day job all at once!

+1. I spend the day working and the whole evening until the early hours catching up on what I've missed.

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

how so?  I haven't seen anything to say the Russians are advancing and some stuff that suggests they have lost some ground

I’m no expert and perhaps someone more knowledgeable can elobrate but so far Central Kyiv has been targeted by missiles and air strikes, but if self propelled artillery gets into range that’s a whole different kind of hurt.

Missiles and air strikes are a one and done type of deal. Sustained artillery fire is a different story.

and if you correlate the news that a long curfew has been imposed and other news reports that the streets are empty you get the sense those on the ground have a sense of what’s coming.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by db_zero

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

I’m no expert and perhaps someone more knowledgeable can elobrate but so far Central Kyiv has been targeted by missiles and air strikes, but if self propelled artillery gets into range that’s a whole different kind of hurt.

Missiles and air strikes are a one and done type of deal. Sustained artillery fire is a different story.

Understood, it was the part about Russia advancing I was asking about.

[db_zero]

Just now, sburke said:

Understood, it was the part about Russia advancing I was asking about.

Take your pick from the numerous reports and throw a dart. 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Take your pick from the numerous reports and throw a dart. 

I am not seeing those numerous reports other than maybe regular media which typically lags events by a couple days.  Haiduk had a post earlier today that had Ukrainians forcing the Russians out of at least two locations.  I trust that source more than anything else I am reading.

[akd]

Better image of the damage done to Russian FOB at Kherson airport:

 

[db_zero]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

I am not seeing those numerous reports other than maybe regular media which typically lags events by a couple days.  Haiduk had a post earlier today that had Ukrainians forcing the Russians out of at least two locations.  I trust that source more than anything else I am reading.

We both could be right. Success in one area, not so much elsewhere. It’s a big country and lots of battles, big and small raging all over.

One thing I can say is looking at the people in the big cities, small rural areas in Ukraine as well as those protesting in Russia, I feel more of a kinship with them, that the politicians who incited this madness.

[LukeFF]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Unfortunately now it seems like a real possibility. 

Based on what?

[billbindc]

Best estimates now 7000 Russian dead and 14000 to 21000 wounded (more likely the latter based on Steve's estimate of the situation):

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/russia-troop-deaths.html

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, db_zero said:

We both could be right. Success in one area, not so much elsewhere. It’s a big country and lots of battles, big and small raging all over.

One thing I can say is looking at the people in the big cities, small rural areas in Ukraine as well as those protesting in Russia, I feel more of a kinship with them, that the politicians who incited this madness.

possibly, it is pretty fluid.  Both locations Haiduk listed were on Kiev axis.  He also noted a counterattack in Kharkov drove back a Russian attack and out of what used to be the Russian forward positions. Meanwhile the Russians seem to be repositioning down south and giving up some of their gains.  For what isn't clear.

Edited March 17, 2022 by sburke

[db_zero]

18 minutes ago, LukeFF said:

Based on what?

Basing on the fact 152mm SP artillery may soon come into range. Sustainable indirect fire brings a new dimension into the equation.

Combined with missile and air bombardment we may begin to see Russia finally use combined arms in the field they are known for… indirect and indiscriminate firepower.

Historically Russia viewed artillery as the god of war.

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by db_zero

[BlackMoria]

A number of assumptions would have to be true then.

1.  Russian Army has not evolved or devolved from the doctrine of WW2 and Cold War days.  Doesn't appear to be the case for this conflict.

2.  They have the supply and logistics to keep ammo/fuel/etc to their artillery.  That is very much in question right now.

3.  The terrain and environmental conditions permit them to mass arty groups.  Again, very much in question.

4.  They have the command & control capability to tie it all together in a crescendo of doom.   Very much in doubt.

Maybe the Russian arty will be the proverbial rabbit out the hat to save the day.  I, for one, very much doubt to overcome all of the above to pull it off.  Possible but it is steep odds against producing the rabbit they need.