How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Its never done until its done, but....

I  can't really see Ukraine agreeing to these terms unless the war is going much worse for them than we are led to believe.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk are AGS much in use in the new Ukrainian army, in this invasion? They seem to static for the current UKR mobile/dispersed infantry format...

Even better, do you have a relatively current OOB? Although I think I asked this before...

Platoon of AGS is usual weapon of UKR or RUS battalion. 

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Platoon of AGS is usual weapon of UKR or RUS battalion. 

Yes, aware, but aren't they kinda crappy, for this current type of combat, no?

[MikeyD]

Someone mentioned we've seen few videos of regular Ukrainian army unity, where AGS would be, mostly hunter-killer special forces or home guard units, where they wouldn't be.

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes, aware, but aren't they kinda crappy, for this current type of combat, no?

I dont think so, they can degrade or damage pretty much anything on the battlefield. And as we've seen, it doesnt take too much to abandon your equipment in the field. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Artkin

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yes, aware, but aren't they kinda crappy, for this current type of combat, no?

Not more, than ATGM ) And yes, you judge about "mobile warfare" only by territorial defense footage. I don't know either AGS-17 are in TD or not. But you can mount AGS on pick-up and get mobile thing ) 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Sgt Joch]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I  can't really see Ukraine agreeing to these terms unless the war is going much worse for them than we are led to believe.

it would not surprise me if there is an agreement along those lines. Zelensky has already signaled that he is open to concessions, not something you do if you are clearly winning. 

The war seems to be at a stalemate, so any ceasefire agreement will probably leave the situation close to what it was pre-war.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Sgt Joch

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

 But you can mount AGS on pick-up and get mobile thing ) 

*Cough*BFC*cough*

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I  can't really see Ukraine agreeing to these terms unless the war is going much worse for them than we are led to believe.

That is because we have largely been focusing on the military picture.  Nationally, Ukraine has had serious hurt put upon it.  Its national and economic infrastructure has been severely damaged, it now has to try and get those refugees back or it faces a human capital problem.  It has thousands of civilians still at serious risk and Russia could simply do more and more damage.  It is very likely that a tidal wave of aid will flow in from the West, further pulling UKR away from Russia but any good politicians calculus has to be how to get out of this and still be able to rebuild.  

I am not sure what people thought winning looks like in this situation but it was always going to be "the best bad".

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is because we have largely been focusing on the military picture.  Nationally, Ukraine has had serious hurt put upon it.  Its national and economic infrastructure has been severely damaged, it now has to try and get those refugees back or it faces a human capital problem.  It has thousands of civilians still at serious risk and Russia could simply do more and more damage.  It is very likely that a tidal wave of aid will flow in from the West, further pulling UKR away from Russia but any good politicians calculus has to be how to get out of this and still be able to rebuild.  

I am not sure what people thought winning looks like in this situation but it was always going to be "the best bad".

Agreed that it's about the bigger picture, but if Ukraine doesn't enter Nato, and cannot build up its own defences, then isn't that just setting things up for the Russians to attack again some years down the line, and maybe getting things right instead of squandering their forces?

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Zelensky has already signaled that he is open to concessions, not something you do if you are clearly winning. 

I think it's important for him diplomatically and politically to signal that he is open to negotiations. Whether he really is, I don't know.

[Huntsman]

4 hours ago, Baneman said:

Isn't there at least one Moscow in the States ?
That could make for some tense double-checking of your targeting co-ordinates !

Yes Moscow is halfway between Oxford and Geneva and not far from Troy.  There are 27 Oxfords in the USA and at least one of every large town in Europe as well as towns names after several countries.

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I  can't really see Ukraine agreeing to these terms unless the war is going much worse for them than we are led to believe.

Key word is citing unnamed officials involve.

NATO membership, of cource can be and will be, i think, one of our concession. As well as NATO or any foreign troops bases. NATO hadn't political will to "escalate" with Russia by aссepting our membership. All what we heard are only "doors are open" and "deeply concerned". I doubt NATO will have this will to protect Baltic states. We ruined a myth about Russian ground forces "invincibility", so, we don't need in NATO anymore. Direct security guaranties from US or UK with an artcile of immediate miliatary support in case of new aggression will be better. Zelensky claimed exactly such position.    

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

it would not surprise me if there is an agreement along those lines. Zelensky has already signaled that he is open to concessions, not something you do if you are clearly winning. 

The war seems to be at a stalemate, so any ceasefire agreement will probably leave the situation close to what it was pre-war.

Perhaps Zelensky knows Putin isn't interested in anything else than complete victory, realistic or not. Zelensky can state that he's prepared to make concessions, because Putin will never make peace. He can't, too much at stake for him. 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think it's important for him diplomatically and politically to signal that he is open to negotiations. Whether he really is, I don't know.

Agreed. Was thinking today that from a military strategic / real-geopolitical POV, it might be more harmful for Russia than Ukraine to continue the war for much longer. 
If Ukraine can fight Russia until a collapse occurs, it will be even harder for Russia to go for another adventure years down the line.

Of course the cost in human lives and destruction is getting larger by the day. 

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is because we have largely been focusing on the military picture.  Nationally, Ukraine has had serious hurt put upon it.  Its national and economic infrastructure has been severely damaged, it now has to try and get those refugees back or it faces a human capital problem.  It has thousands of civilians still at serious risk and Russia could simply do more and more damage.  It is very likely that a tidal wave of aid will flow in from the West, further pulling UKR away from Russia but any good politicians calculus has to be how to get out of this and still be able to rebuild.  

I am not sure what people thought winning looks like in this situation but it was always going to be "the best bad".

and frankly militarily Ukraine can afford to give quite a few concessions.  The Russian Army is going to be pretty defanged after this.  To your point what Ukraine is focusing on is the economic rebuild and human cost.  The Ukrainian army will modernize more and become more effective with less while Russia... well Russia tries to figure out where to buy tires.

Edited March 16, 2022 by sburke

[dan/california]

Zelensky needs a peace that allows for economic rebuilding. I would note what is published is NOT ruling out EU membership. My personal preference would three U.S. heavy brigades, and short range ballistic missiles aimed at Moscow all over the bleeping country. But how many months is Zelensky willing to grind it out while Ukrainian women and children die or flee to achieve that level of victory.

[BlackMoria]

53 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

Technically speaking, or how I should call it, he is a serial killer because he kills more than three separate individuals within a short period of time, which I think is the FBI definition of a serial killer, and this can be said about many other soldiers that are in active duty. The difference is that he, hopefully, doesn't get any sexual gratification from the killing which is what serial killers often seek from it.

Don't harsh my mellow....  

[sburke]

6 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Russian convoy on Ushakova avenue in Kherson. 

 

Picking a still from around 14 seconds, I've found where this is on google streetview to figure out that they are heading south-east, but it's not obvious from that what they are doing. I'd guess moving in to central Kherson - if they were advancing out of Kherson or moving back across the Dneipr, I don't think they'd be going down the avenue in that direction, but maybe someone more local knows better.

c'mon guys you are missing the most obvious conclusion. This is the f'n Russians we are talking about.  They are either lost or someone just found a Best Buy they can raid.

[Panserjeger]

27 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I  can't really see Ukraine agreeing to these terms unless the war is going much worse for them than we are led to believe.

Zelensky has already signalled that he is willing to stop talking about NATO membership, so that is probably something he is willing to put on the table. "Limits on it's military forces" could be anything, maybe promising to not acquire nukes? Or not expanding the army more than it already is? 

[Zaba]

Here in Spain they have published this news https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/zelenski-lavrov-arrojan-optimismo-negociaciones-hay-esperanza_1_8834564.html and quote the Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1. But the last one asks for subscription to read it.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Zelensky needs a peace that allows for economic rebuilding. I would note what is published is NOT ruling out EU membership. My personal preference would three U.S. heavy brigades, and short range ballistic missiles aimed at Moscow all over the bleeping country. But how many months is Zelensky willing to grind it out while Ukrainian women and children die or flee to achieve that level of victory.

My bet is that Zelensky is willing to grind it out as long as needed. There's no alternative really. All this talk about peace or a cease fire. Completely unrealistic. It's victory or death.

[sburke]

Been wondering about all these Russians confiscating (read stealing) personal cell phones. laptops etc.  Once they are done watching porn I wonder how many are catching western news on the state of the war and the impact on morale.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Key word is citing unnamed officials involve.

NATO membership, of cource can be and will be, i think, one of our concession. As well as NATO or any foreign troops bases. NATO hadn't political will to "escalate" with Russia by aссepting our membership. All what we heard are only "doors are open" and "deeply concerned". I doubt NATO will have this will to protect Baltic states. We ruined a myth about Russian ground forces "invincibility", so, we don't need in NATO anymore. Direct security guaranties from US or UK with an artcile of immediate miliatary support in case of new aggression will be better. Zelensky claimed exactly such position.    

Well we'll never know until it happens, but Baltic states are already in NATO and NATO troops in Baltic states. It is different situation. Some countries wanted to have Ukraine in NATO, others didn't. After 2014 it wasn't going to happen if only because the 'territorial disputes'. 
The countries that wanted to have Ukraine in NATO could have 'intervened' or escalated by themselves, if they'd wanted to. 

Anyway I agree that a guarantee by some / all NATO countries to directly intervene in next Russian aggression into Ukraine territory is as good as NATO 'membership' for Ukraine .

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

But how many months is Zelensky willing to grind it out while Ukrainian women and children die or flee to achieve that level of victory.

This always was his weak point and Putin knows where to beat

This is of course was made for this. Russian jet drop heavy bomb on the building of Dramatical Theater in Mariupol, where was a shelter for citizens. Hundrerds citizens with children hide there... The building ruined completely. There is unknown about casualties. Nobody can reach this place because of heavy shelling. Officially in Mariupol already lost more 1800 citizens, but real number of victims can be more 10000...