How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm worried that this war might end more like WW1.. an economically devastated and empoverished nation free to brew up new "stab in the back" legends and elect even worse leaders than before.

Yes, I have the same concern.  I really don't hold out much hope that russia will move away from autocratic rule and if it's one thing autocrats need to motivate the people it's a common enemy.

[Vet 0369]

Just now, keas66 said:

Do you think we will ever be in a position to remake Russia as we were with Germany  ?  I don't . I think Putin is going to be festering  on the Edge of NATO until someone removes him ... and likely his replacement's  will carry on in the same way .

Maybe we should offer up our Treasuries to Putin after this Special Operation comes to an end  . Lift the sanctions and let the Russians back into our Financial/ trading systems again ... because the  punishment  should never fit the crime right ?

I have to say up front that I’m not a pacifist or and apologist. “ I don’t “turn the other cheek.” I will make sure they never do it again. I simply try to use an appropriate method to knock out their teeth. What I’m saying is that the response to this atrocity must be considered and calculated, and not based on “vengeance.” I’m very happy to say that I believe the leaders in the West, and the Ukraine have the responsibility to assess those punishments, and I pray they are considered and measured based on possible effects down the line, and not on vengeance.

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I have to say up front that I’m not a pacifist or and apologist. “ I don’t “turn the other cheek.” I will make sure they never do it again. I simply try to use an appropriate method to knock out their teeth. What I’m saying is that the response to this atrocity must be considered and calculated, and not based on “vengeance.” I’m very happy to say that I believe the leaders in the West, and the Ukraine have the responsibility to assess those punishments, and I pray they are considered and measured based on possible effects down the line, and not on vengeance.

 

Fair enough - and now back to the military analysis  of  T72/T80/T90's  getting blown up / stuck in the mud

[Vet 0369]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

 

Fair enough - and now back to the military analysis  of  T72/T80/T90's  getting blown up / stuck in the mud

[Haiduk]

There is just twitter posts, but reportedly UKR forces launched offensive NW from Kyiv. I'm just hearing loud artillery salvos in that direction (there is a night now).

Artillery also heard from eastern direction, but much quieter

A curfew was anounced from 20-00 15/03 to 7-00 17/03. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Has this guy already been put on our "list" of recently deceased Generals?

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Kinophile]

To restate the obvious, All these rear area units like EW/SigInt, radar, arty and c&c assets are continually being lost by one side, to their opposition who use very similar/identical gear and are not losing theirs.

So...how long can an army fight that, with each loss, materially strengthens it's enemy?

 Let's say...3-4 weeks...? >:)

[Haiduk]

Captured BMD-4, NW from Kyiv

Edited March 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To restate the obvious, All these rear area units like EW/SigInt, radar, arty and c&c assets are continually being lost by one side, to their opposition who use very similar/identical gear and are not losing theirs.

So...how long can an army fight that, with each loss, materially strengthens it's enemy?

 Let's say...3-4 weeks...? >:)

Also, since this is part of a withdrawl of Russian units from Mykolaiv through Kerson, it tells you that this doesn't really look like an orderly, planned withdrawl to reorganise lines. If you are redeploying unit in good order to shorten lines, you don't leave your valuable EW assets behind, I'd imagine.

[Haiduk]

UKR 2S7 Pion

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[MikeyD]

For the uninitiated (including me) here's a scale drawing of the 2S7.

 

[panzermartin]

3 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

For the uninitiated (including me) here's a scale drawing of the 2S7.

 

It's of no use in the tactical scale of CM but can we have it as a flavor object pls

[Harmon Rabb]

I have been reading this topic everyday for the last two weeks and signed up to thank you guys.

This topic is the most informative source that I have seen on the internet for understanding the realities of the war in Ukraine.

 

Keep up the good work guys.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

So reference my long post on pauses and initiative…a lot of chatter of Ukr going on the offensive.  It will interesting to see what happens at negotiating table.

[Haiduk]

Russians shelled the shore of Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district of Odesa oblast. Will the night landing come? Putin decided to taste all games of toy soldiers...

 

[Machor]

Article on Russian comms in Ukraine. Summary:

"it seems that the modernisation of Russia's radios may not have gone to plan. Deliveries of things like the R-168 and R-187 digital radios were supposed to have started in 2000 and 2017 respectively. However, there may have been issues with quality and corruption."

"This means some Russian troops have been using civil walkie-talkies, their phones, and unencrypted HF radios, which can be listened into by almost anyone with the right kit and skills."

"This raises three possibilities. The first is that Russian military HF users may not care if eavesdropping takes place. The second possibility is that HF may be used to deliberately transmit false information...and third that the RuAF cannot encrypt HF traffic."

"These issues may present vulnerabilities that the Ukrainians could exploit fairly easily to gain electromagnetic dominance."

 

[The Steppenwulf]

With regard to the MiG 29 discussion and the related debate re blocking their transfer to UKR: I was pondering much earlier in this thread why the US did this, given that NATO have armed UKR in other respects, and the clear combat multiplier they would offer to a UKR counter offensive (which could be so significant as to completely roll over the Russians), as well as what I thought previously are perfectly feasibly solutions to circumvent the thorny issue of NATO "directly supplying them". So here's a hypothesis I've been mulling over that might explain the US inaction on this:

Firstly let's assume (and I think most of us would agree) that NATO MUST steer a path through this conflict that strikes a balance between NATO fighting proxy (by assisting UKR) but not going as far as escalating the conflict (because no one knows where that ends).

But secondly it's NATO's single strategic objective that the result of this conflict MUST result in an outright Russian failure to annex Ukraine, install a puppet Govt or be in any position to seek any sort of favourable terms (IOW it's put in a weak negotiation position). 

So I reason that both of these aims can be served by NATO carefully just doing enough in its military assistance to ensure that Russia is defeated in its aims, but stopping short of assisting UKR so much that it is seen to have smashed the Russians (due only to the help of NATO). The latter might be shaped for Russian public opinion by the Kremlin as not the "defensive NATO" it purports to be, but the former is perceived across the world as failure due to Russian military ineptitude. This result achieves the same end for the Ukraine conflict (militarily) but it mitigates to the maximum the possibility of further escalation between Russia and NATO. In addition, politically and diplomatically, it provides an excuse for the Chinese to bat off any of Putin's requests to back Russia up in any way, other than offer its sympathies.      

In conclusion then; given that its now not unreasonable to think that the Russians are slowly falling apart, and NATO intelligence must have been monitoring this development for a while, I wonder if senior NATO commanders knew already that those MiGs were simply not going to be required. "So that's a no go" as long as the war is projected to remain on course to a Russian defeat, a defeat for which, they will only have themselves to blame.          
 

Edited March 15, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Bearstronaut]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

Article on Russian comms in Ukraine. Summary:

"it seems that the modernisation of Russia's radios may not have gone to plan. Deliveries of things like the R-168 and R-187 digital radios were supposed to have started in 2000 and 2017 respectively. However, there may have been issues with quality and corruption."

"This means some Russian troops have been using civil walkie-talkies, their phones, and unencrypted HF radios, which can be listened into by almost anyone with the right kit and skills."

"This raises three possibilities. The first is that Russian military HF users may not care if eavesdropping takes place. The second possibility is that HF may be used to deliberately transmit false information...and third that the RuAF cannot encrypt HF traffic."

"These issues may present vulnerabilities that the Ukrainians could exploit fairly easily to gain electromagnetic dominance."

 

As a former US Army SIGINTer this news got me salivating.

[Machor]

So, about those French TI on Russian tanks... I had thought Russia would have switched to self-sufficient production after 2015, but it turns out they kept receiving shipments from France:

 

[Machor]

Russian 'success' videos, as requested. Large quantity of destroyed Ukrainian armour in Kherson:

Russian troops show off NATO aid trophies:

 

[Kinophile]

58 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Also, since this is part of a withdrawl of Russian units from Mykolaiv through Kerson, it tells you that this doesn't really look like an orderly, planned withdrawl to reorganise lines. If you are redeploying unit in good order to shorten lines, you don't leave your valuable EW assets behind, I'd imagine.

Hell, if you're attacking in "good order", you don't leave your valuable EW assets behind/undefended.

So if you can't even do that (when you have the tactical initiative/momentum) then come GTFO time...yikes...

Edited March 16, 2022 by Kinophile

[Grey_Fox]

1 minute ago, Machor said:

Russian 'success' videos, as requested. Large quantity of destroyed Ukrainian armour in Kherson:

Just goes to show how big a rout the Ukrainians suffered in the south, and how poorly their initial counterattack went.

[sawomi]

15 hours ago, billbindc said:

Perhaps the best 'big picture' read I've found on where this is and where it's going: 

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist?utm_source=twitter&s=r

I found this one particular interesting:

[removed because racist organizations are by definition not interesting.  Attempts to post similar materials will not be tolerated]