How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

12 hours ago, sburke said:

Anonymous strikes again

20 terabytes: Anonymous Germany hijacks data from Rosneft Germany - Anonleaks

sburke,

Though the material retrieved isn't remotely in my area of expertise, shall be most interested to see what comes out of that impressive hack. Thanks for passing the word.

Regards,

John Kettler

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They've even lost something like 4 generals and a half dozen critical brigade level leaders. 

Steve

slightly morbid but I've been trying to keep a running account

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division

Guards Colonel Konstantin Zizevsky commander of the 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment 
Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division
Colonel Andrey Zakharov, a tank regiment commander
Colonel Sergei Porokhnya commander of the 12th separate guards engineering brigade
Lieutenant Colonel Denis Glebov, Deputy Commander of the 11th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Safronov, Commander of the 61st Separate Marine Brigade
Lt.colonel Alexei Khasanov, deputy commander of 31st Fighter aviation regiment

Guards Major Burlakov Andrei Petrovich, Deputy Chief of Intelligence Staff - Chief of Intelligence Regiment

Confirmed recently claimed death of high-ranked officer of 103 missile brigade (Iskander-M), Ulan-Ude, Buriatia, Esatern miliitarty district: the chief of liason, chief of staff deputy mayor Alexandr Fiodorov. So, this can be real, that Russian Iskander unit met with our SOF...

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

sburke,

Though the material retrieved isn't remotely in my area of expertise, shall be most interested to see what comes out of that impressive hack. Thanks for passing the word.

Regards,

John Kettler

My guess is some folks in Germany are going to be worried they are severely compromised.

[John Kettler]

All,

In several of my posts which had embedded video from Ukrainian or Russian sources, the video was clearly there when posted but has now somehow vanished. Suggest checking the pertinent Twitter pages (which did survive) to see the videos. PITA, to be sure, but it's the best I can do.

Regards,

John Kettler

[DesertFox]

They belong to the Hague...

 

 

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I heard the tail end of some interview with a Russian Orthodox someone or other (might have been an academic).  The question was put to him about if this war is an affront to God, or something like that, and he said yes.  The interviewer then asked why the Russian Orthodox Church hasn't said ANYTHING about this war?  His answer was the usual "I don't know, you'll have to ask them".

The problem for the Russian Orthodox Church is that they are bought and paid for.  Putin lavished them with all kinds of graft, social stances (anti-gay in particular), and repression of competing religions.  In exchange they were to tell all Russians that in order to get into heaven you have to love Putin.

I'm being snarky, yes, but only by a tiny bit.  This was the deal and if we see the Patriarch of Moscow reverse course then it is a sign that Putin is done.  However, as of right now, the war in Ukraine is justified because they have Gay Pride Parades:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/moscow-patriarch-stokes-orthodox-tensions-war-remarks-83322338

For those of you who didn't notice this in 2014, there was a schism because of Russia's invasion.  Most Orthodox Ukrainians rejected being associated with Russian Orthodox Church, but some stuck with it.  The above article indicates the holdouts are changing their view.

Steve

Historically, the Eastern Orthodox Church in Russia has been entwined with the Russian Rulers since at least Ivan the Terrible, right up to Rasputin. The controlled the masses, and the Church controlled their minds. That influence only waned when Communism put a blanket on religion. Wasn’t it Marx who said “Religion is the opiate of the masses?”

[John Kettler]

TheVulture,

122 mm D30 howitzers in travel configuration, ready to be towed. Kind of dig the Hesco light shoring of the ammo storage area via dirt filled tires. D30s are weapons the UA can use immediately, presuming they're in full working order and not damaged.

Regards,

JohnKettler

[DMS]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

t's not incompetency - it's 'something else' - namely hundreds of years of eliminating people with brains and cultivating a nation of serfs that is incapable of producing anything using those raw resources.

I didn't want to interrupt your speeches (I liked story about Muslim Muscovites most of all). But, damn, you use Soviet AKs, T-64s, any weapon in VSU is Soviet with exception to some new ATGMs. Ukraine energy system is supplied by Soviet built nuclear stations invented by "incapable serfs" (thanks to moksha-yakut mudblood Kurchatov). How can you live with such contradictions in your head?

[mosuri]

19 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Group of Russian troops of 138th motor-rifle brigade (Kamenka town, Leningrad oblast, Western military district) tried to dig-in in the tree-plant and hold the ground, but something went wrong.... 3 MTLB, 1 T-72B3 and Metis (or Metis-M) ATGM.

It's been mentioned multiple times in the local news in Finland that the Russian garrisons along the border have been drained of combat troops, at least every two out of three battalions committed to Ukraine.

Some journalists went to interview locals last week, but were asked to leave soon. But not before getting an admission from an officer's wife that the soldiers knew where they were heading, and rumors of 350 wounded for the Kamenka brigade (article only in Finnish unfortunately https://www.hs.fi/ulkomaat/art-2000008665103.html )

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

IIRC The british version of the javelin has remote launch capability.  The CLU can be detatched and used to fire the launcher from around 50m away. (As can the British NLAW)

I think the US versions don't have this,  which is probably what the Ukrainians have. 

TheVulture,

Had no idea there was anything but the same Javelin we saw blow a combat loaded T-72 to bits in a live fire test. Do you have a link to this firing the Javelin sans CLU on the launcher? Am also surprised NLAW can be made to work similarly.

Regards

John Kettler

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Wasn’t it Marx who said “Religion is the opiate of the masses?”

maybe but the Sackler family challenged that perception.  I think their commercial ran something like - Religion? nah WE supply the opiate of the masses.  Purdue Pharma. We make you not feel your pain.  or sumfink

Edited March 15, 2022 by sburke

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, DMS said:

I didn't want to interrupt your speeches (I liked story about Muslim Muscovites most of all). But, damn, you use Soviet AKs, T-64s, any weapon in VSU is Soviet with exception to some new ATGMs. Ukraine energy system is supplied by Soviet built nuclear stations invented by "incapable serfs" (thanks to moksha-yakut mudblood Kurchatov). How can you live with such contradictions in your head?

Are you trying to tell me everything in USSR was built by russians?

Btw:

AK was designed by the German - Hugo Schmeisser. So let's not delve deeper into other Soviet inventions or we may just find how talented people were imprisoned, tortured or even killed even after inventing something useful.

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[Bulletpoint]

I'm wondering what actually happened back some time ago when there were reports that Belarus would also join the war, then suddenly they didn't anyway.

Had Putin agreed with Lukashenko ahead of time that Belarus would join, and was he then betrayed by him when Belarus saw that the Russian invasion was a fiasco?

Lukashenko might have realised that if he joined, he'd get pulled down with Putin, and that Putin's army was no longer a threat to him.

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm wondering what actually happened back some time ago when there were reports that Belarus would also join the war, then suddenly they didn't anyway.

Had Putin agreed with Lukashenko ahead of time that Belarus would join, and was he then betrayed by him when Belarus saw that the Russian invasion was a fiasco?

Lukashenko might have realised that if he joined, he'd get pulled down with Putin, and that Putin's army was no longer a threat to him.

Belarus should have invaded right from the get go, that was the initial plan - but belarussian soldiers riot and also sabotage railroads and trains. Lukashenko has ordered an invasion multiple times already but his soldiers refuse to comply.

Belarus already joined the war on Feb24

Edited March 15, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

Just now, kraze said:

Belarus should have invaded right from the get go, that was the initial plan - but belarussian soldiers riot and also sabotage railroads and trains. Lukashenko has ordered an invasion multiple times already but his soldiers refuse to comply.

I suspect some of that is true but haven't seen any confirmation.  there were a couple pics of damaged railways but nothing to note who was responsible.  there was also a post about Russian officers replacing officers in units, but no confirmation of that either (and that would be a phenomenally bad idea)

I strongly suspect Putin wanted/wants their troops in but some folks in Belarus know that would mean the fall of Lukashenko's gov't.

[John Kettler]

The_Capt,

Ref sleep deprivation effects on combat performance, sometime in the mid 1980s, the US Army did a study of the rifle platoon in simulated defensive combat. Careful assessments were done to establish baseline performance of the NCOs and enlisted at their combat tasks and of the platoon leader at his. The platoon was kept up continuously for 24 hours, at which point the same assessments were made. The discovery was traumatic. The news regarding the NCO down to the most junior enlisted was very good, with 80% effectiveness remaining after 24 hours of sleep deprivation. Contrariwise, the news regarding the platoon leader's performance at his job was catastrophic, for he was functioning at 20%. of his starting effectiveness. At a stroke, this threw the whole rest the men and leader stays awake model right into the trash can, for it now became clear that first priority for sleep had to go to the CO, for without sleep. his poor resulting decision-making ability could get the entire platoon wiped out. Don't know what, if anything, the Army did to incorporate the shocking discovery made in this field test into how it handled the sleep situation, but if nothing else, it provides a useful benchmark of what sleep loss can do to a force on defense, never mind trying to conduct a carefully coordinated organized attack against a well-equipped, ferocious foe on own ground and with everything at stake. And the US infantry platoon wasn't in extreme weather,  had food and water, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 15, 2022 by John Kettler

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

How do you know about 60-70%? Did you speak to all of them? Or any of them?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

And yes I did. In fact I did as far back as 2008 when I was shocked at how many russians supported invasion and occupation of Georgia.

And yes I also watched other people do it and film it over the past 8 years. From mere bloggers to higher profile journos from Radio Liberty. It was always the same - "Ukraine is not a country, they gained independence illegally, we must take it back", just in different variations.

Furthermore - it's 20th day of the war and warcrimes by their country and they do literally nothing about it. Not doing anything equals agreeing with how things are.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, kraze said:

Belarus should have invaded right from the get go, that was the initial plan - but belarussian soldiers riot and also sabotage railroads and trains. Lukashenko has ordered an invasion multiple times already but his soldiers refuse to comply.

Belarus already joined the war on Feb24

As sburke pointed out, the exact picture of why Belarus is not fighting in Ukraine isn't clearly known.  However, I think it is very clear: Putin wants/needs Belorussian land forces attacking Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Belarus are refusing to comply.

There is no other explanation for the fact that Russia is desperately trying to get forces from everywhere, including Assad's regime, and Belorussian forces are sitting idle on their side of the border.  Them staying on their side of the border is the most important thing.  The reasons why are less important (though very interesting!)

Steve

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

Seems like a major chunk of VDV ( VDK ? )  units walking away from their vehicles  ?

 

This is Bucha. Our troops in previous two days extended own control zone in Irpin' town from 30 % to 70 %. Probably today something happened in Bucha, next to Irpin' and Russian "invincible" VDV ran away, abandoned own vehicles. But I can't confirm this, there is hard to say either this just Russians hide vehicles between houses or they realy abandoned. Though, I doubt civilian could walk and film free Russian troops if they would there. 

PS. Guys, I call for less pollitic and historical flame here. It's very hard to read all this and search things, related to the war

Edited March 15, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 Russia is desperately trying to get forces from everywhere

 

https://censor.net/ua/video_news/3325480/polonenyyi_okupant_rozpoviv_scho_na_viyinu_v_ukrayinu_vidpravyly_navit_viyiskovyyi_orkestr_video

Translation: "captured invader spoke about an orchestra being sent to fight in Ukraine"

From the video:

POW: there were orchestra guys, musicians guarding that 

UKR: what orchestra?

POW: an orchestra attached to a company

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/not-just-putin-most-russians-support-the-war-in-ukraine/

And yes I did. In fact I did as far back as 2008 when I was shocked at how many russians supported invasion and occupation of Georgia.

And yes I also watched other people do it and film it over the past 8 years. From mere bloggers to higher profile journos from Radio Liberty. It was always the same - "Ukraine is not a country, they gained independence illegally, we must take it back", just in different variations.

Furthermore - it's 20th day of the war and warcrimes by their country and they do literally nothing about it. Not doing anything equals agreeing with how things are.

This is similar to the big debates about the Germans and the Third Reich.  They knew Jews were rounded up and shipped away.  Concentration camps were spread all over Germany, which meant a large percentage of the population likely knew the "resettlement" cover story was a lie.  They also knew their government viewed Jews as "vermin".  Even with all of this, not to mention the other horrific things the Nazi regime did, only a tiny percentage of Germans did anything to openly or covertly oppose these things.  So when the war ended and the Germans said "hey, we didn't know our government was committing mechanized mass murder" the world correctly said "you should have".

If you look at what happened in Germany after the war you see the effectiveness of de-Nazification.  Not perfect, for sure, but it had the desired effect of turning a traditionally military minded Germany into an economic minded one instead.  Or as I remember some economist putting it years ago, "Deutschmark über Alles!"

Russia did not go through this sort of process once the Soviet Union collapsed.  Its people were not forced to see the horrors that were done in their name.  Not just within their own country, but all over the world and in particular Eastern Europe.  To this day it seems Russians do not understand why NATO exists or why every single state aligned with the Soviet Union in Europe is part of it or wants to be a part of it.  It is because Russia has not changed its ways because nobody forced it to.

We'll see if this war can finally have the same impact on the Russian people as the Germans faced in the years after WW2.  I am hopeful this can happen.

Steve

[dan/california]

https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves/

Nothing shockingly new, But more or less confirms the Belarusian military is more inclined to revolt against Lutashenko than it is  to face Ukrainian missiles. Someone needs to get in there and start offering bribes with the yachts and money that used to belong to the oligarchs. If Lutashenko was deposed and the rail links severed in Belarus, the Russians would be utterly bleeped.

[Kinophile]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the VDV abandoning their vehicles means 1) no fuel/ammo/food came for them 2) they know/were told none will be coming. 

 The vdv is equivalent in role to say, Delta Force? Am I right? Or the 82 Airborne?

so imagine an entire unit of them walking away, no vehicle destruction, Nada.

when was the last time US units did that? Korea?

[borg]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the VDV abandoning their vehicles means 1) no fuel/ammo/food came for them 2) they know/were told none will be coming. 

 The vdv is equivalent in role to say, Delta Force? Am I right? Or the 82 Airborne?

so imagine an entire unit of them walking away, no vehicle destruction, Nada.

when was the last time US units did that? Korea?

I begin to suspect it’s a sign - against their origins 

[Panserjeger]

France 24 piece on a Kyiv workshop that rebuilds captured vehicle HMGs for infantry use: