How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Phantom Captain]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR SOF with captured Russian Eleron-3 UAV

Is the US supplying uniforms or is this commercially bought scorpion pattern?  

[The Steppenwulf]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They have to win their strategic goals for this invasion to be worth it.  That isn't going to happen no matter what.

Caveat emptor: Unless they resort to use of WMD, and as a consequence, UKR Govt capitulates.

But even then we should separate the local strategic goal of victory over Ukraine and the broader geo political ambition of Putin, which is shattered, regardless of what colour flag flies over Ukraine in the short, medium or long term.

Edited March 12, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Hapless]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's his thinking [...]

Excessive casualties at the tactical level, grandiose operational planning but limited actual gains, no strategic endgame... is that the ghost of Ludendorff looming over the Russian General Staff like it's 1918?

[John Kettler]

37 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Btw folks…if you are impressed by the ‘FSB letters’ you should be asking yourself what information contained therein couldn’t be gleaned from a reasonably informed reading of pretty widely known public facts and how easily could it be written by anyone with a pastiche level of knowledge of the way the Russian security state thinks/talks? Once you have the answer, you know how seriously you shouldn’t be taking them.

 

billblindc,

Found the first three credible in light of many years of reading insider accounts of Soviet and Russian intelligence operations, but the fourth was absolutely not the same person and differed dramatically from the first three in a host of ways. That being the case, wouldn't trust the fifth, either.

All,

Those of you who enjoy the frighteningly expensive for their size and page count Osprey monographs will appreciate this notional one.



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Taranis]

23 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Just heard a French Ex-General claim on  France-24 that the Russians are losing tactically and Strategically but they are winning at the Operational level .  Kind of made me curious - What would one declare to be  Operational Objectives of the Current Russian Action and are they meeting them ?

- Capturing Kherson ?

- Encircling  Maripol ?

- Applying Pressure  to Kharkiv and  Kiev  ?

- etc etc

I just not sure how one could claim Russia is achieving anything at the Operational level myself - but maybe I misunderstand what is meant but Operation level Goals .

 

 

Honestly, I laught a lot nearly each time I saw a French military expert/general talking about Ukraine. How many BS I heard since the beginning, like "Russia will steamroll easily UKR"... How can they say that while UKR reorganized and reequiped since 2014. Their fanatical resiliance was sure and even if the Russians had taken the ground rapidly a strong insurgency was inevitable. Everything since Maidan show us that UKR will not give up easily... They only see the theorical russian army without keeping in mind the importance of logistic (amateur like Bradley said), weather, fire support and morale (things that CM players are aware). Russian propaganda had made great job with them... All medias are saying Kiyv is being encircled but reaching Kiyv is a thing, encircling it an other, keeping the encirclement still an other and taking it it's not even need thinking of it. I'm talking about the French point of view because I'm French and so french media are one of my main sources and so I didn't really know how it is in other countries. We really learn more on this forum than with any other pseudo expert we have.

[TheVulture]

Not impossible, but I'm not sure what they'd really gain versus having a logistics base just over the border in Belarus.

 

 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

Not impossible, but I'm not sure what they'd really gain versus having a logistics base just over the border in Belarus.

 

 

russian military is not very smart.

Simply because there's 100km between CNPP and Kyiv. 100 km of heavily wooded areas that TD knows like the back of its hand.

Their problem isn't with the fact that their junk food is too far, their problem is that it doesn't get to the front line for a myriad of angry reasons.

[The_Capt]

47 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Just heard a French Ex-General claim on  France-24 that the Russians are losing tactically and Strategically but they are winning at the Operational level .

That makes no sense to me.  I am struggling to find a historical example of this and am coming up empty.  One can do well tactically and still fail to translate into Strategic gains but book ending failures around Operational and somehow calling as successful makes no sense as far as I can see.

[Taranis]

6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Not impossible, but I'm not sure what they'd really gain versus having a logistics base just over the border in Belarus.

 

 

I'm really curious about russian projects with Nuclear powerplants. It seems to be key objectives for them. Is it for threating the locals to cut the power ? What will they do with it if russians began to retreat ?

[Haiduk]

How Army and Territorial defense in distant places receive or resupply the western weapon? Thanks to SOF and civil volunteers. If Russian threaten to attack convoys with a weapon, they should to destroy each car on the roads. 

 

[Bulletpoint]

44 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian stock exchange won't re-open on Monday (msn.com)

You have to admit those Russians are smart. Instead of spending millions on developing a pen that could write in spce, they just used a pencil. And now, instead of facing stock market meltdown, they just keep the stock exchange closed.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

You have to admit those Russians are smart. Instead of spending millions on developing a pen that could write in spce, they just used a pencil. And now, instead of facing stock market meltdown, they just keep the stock exchange closed.

But black market price of USD already about 350 RUB.

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That makes no sense to me.  I am struggling to find a historical example of this and am coming up empty.  One can do well tactically and still fail to translate into Strategic gains but book ending failures around Operational and somehow calling as successful makes no sense as far as I can see.

Agree. Moreover I think that if we want to be on a Russian/Soviet level of thinking, their Operational level is the Invasion of Ukraine itself everything under are Tactical ones (think of WW2 Soviet Operational level was generaly at Front/multi Armies level). The Strategical one are Belorussian involvments, threatings with NATO etc. Only with the logistics the Operational level is a failure...

[Bulletpoint]

The only way I could see Russia winning operationally would be if they were close to achieving encirclements of large parts of the UKR army. Not sure if that's what we are seeing.

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

But black market price of USD already about 350 RUB.

I was being sarcastic

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Is the US supplying uniforms or is this commercially bought scorpion pattern?  

Commerciall. As I know, our SOF has a "privelege" to buy any uniform and gears for real work to own taste (of course in some limits inside own unit) 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That makes no sense to me.  I am struggling to find a historical example of this and am coming up empty.  One can do well tactically and still fail to translate into Strategic gains but book ending failures around Operational and somehow calling as successful makes no sense as far as I can see.

As I laid out in my previous post, it makes sense only if you're thinking literally.  The problem is when you put it all together it sounds really silly

"the Russians are still having operational successes because they took a strategically useless village at the cost of 100 men"

Nope, sorry.  A nation can not win a war tactically or operationally unless the tactical or operational results have the potential to be strategic.  Like losing all your battles but winning the war simply because the enemy runs out of soldiers in the process.  Russia is the one running out of stuff so no chance of that happening either.

Russia's only strategic hope now is to bomb the Ukrainians to the negotiating table and get meaningful concessions out of them.  That isn't going to happen.

Steve

[Taranis]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The only way I could see Russia winning operationally would be if they were close to achieving encirclements of large parts of the UKR army. Not sure if that's what we are seeing.

 

Yes, but even if they achieved encirclement, troops could still be approvisioned like Haiduk or Kraze said before (if my memory serves me right) with the help of the local population. Hearts and mind... Try to catch the fish with hands alone...

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Commerciall. As I know, our SOF has a "privelege" to buy any uniform and gears for real work to own taste (of course in some limits inside own unit) 

Multicam is the "Woodand" of the 2000s.  It is the most common commercially available camouflage pattern out there. Hell, many non-US militaries have some degree of Multicam in their own forces.

Steve

[akd]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Btw folks…if you are impressed by the ‘FSB letters’ you should be asking yourself what information contained therein couldn’t be gleaned from a reasonably informed reading of pretty widely known public facts and how easily could it be written by anyone with a pastiche level of knowledge of the way the Russian security state thinks/talks? Once you have the answer, you know how seriously you shouldn’t be taking them.

 

I agree that it is probably a creative writing project, but it is not a bad one.

[akd]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Multicam is the "Woodand" of the 2000s.  It is the most common commercially available camouflage pattern out there. Hell, many non-US militaries have some degree of Multicam in their own forces.

Steve

Including Russia!

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

How Army and Territorial defense in distant places receive or resupply the western weapon? Thanks to SOF and civil volunteers. If Russian threaten to attack convoys with a weapon, they should to destroy each car on the roads. 

 

how did this never occur to me?  I've been really worried about distribution of the supplies coming in from the west.  Turns out Ukrainians all have cars!  This will go down in history.  car companies should make truck and SUV commercials about "tough enough for Ukrainians, tough enough for you!".  So when russian airforce goes hunting for supply lines, do they just shoot up every vehicle they see?  probably make more sense to knock out bridges, but they can't knock out all the bridges.

[Sandokan]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

If McMasters or Mattis was going to do something I'd flip it on, but that would be about it.

There's a McMaster interview on France 24 English here.

 

[DesertFox]

I guess this one heard an incoming tractor and decided to play dead...

 

 

[The Steppenwulf]

I'd say operationally the Russians have succeeded in the approach, attack and capture of Kherson... but they've demonstrated concrete failures in the implementation of effective operational plans everywhere else in their campaign (thus far).