How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Probus]

I’ve seen many posts of Ukrainian infantry armed to the teeth with AT weapons. These guys would be considered heavy infantry at this point?

[Sequoia]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

If this is all true, it begs the question as to what Putin does with it.  Let's assume he made his decisions based on a reality that was totally false but that he believed.  Now that it is blowing up in his face what does someone like him do in response?  A dangerous moment as now they are really going to be winging it in the midst of a huge crisis.

And if it's true, did they lie to him to set him up for a fall?

[Cobetco]

I'm reading a (bad) translation of that supposed FSB document now I think? if its real, then it is real bleak. one of the lines that stood out to me was:

"By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble."

I have seen a lot of comparisons recently to other conflicts as people grasp to explain this not just to nerds like us, but the public. The Russo-Japanese war is one I have forgotten about, but probably a good one to think about in this context.

(edit, i know its been around for a while, but this is the first I have heard of the document)

Edited March 10, 2022 by Cobetco

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Smoke grenades on turret going off probably.

I agree. That was actually my first thought, but I’ve been conditioned by CMBS to Black smoke grenades as IR resistant, and white just visually resistant. Maybe I give the Russian armor too much credit to properly prepare their tanks against modern munitions.

[Fenris]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

I agree. That was actually my first thought, but I’ve been conditioned by CMBS to Black smoke grenades as IR resistant, and white just visually resistant. Maybe I give the Russian armor too much credit to properly prepare their tanks against modern munitions.

From what we've been seeing that wouldn't surprise me at all.

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

 

sburke,

Quite the coup for Anonymous and a huge potential headache for Putin and cronies!

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Boche]

9 minutes ago, Probus said:

I’ve seen many posts of Ukrainian infantry armed to the teeth with AT weapons. These guys would be considered heavy infantry at this point?

To be honest IMO I dont think there is such a thing as light infantry anymore. There hasnt been for a long time.

[Phantom Captain]

4 minutes ago, Boche said:

To be honest IMO I dont think there is such a thing as light infantry anymore. There hasnt been for a long time.

Taliban and Mujahadeen in Afghanistan are absolutely light infantry.  And our US soldiers would agree they are one of the world's best light infantry at that.  Or are you talking 1st world modern armies?

Edited March 10, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

About ten years ago I went to the US military’s Defense Language Institute and learned Korean. The events of the last couple weeks has me regretting that I didn’t choose Russian.

Bearstronaut,

A dear now departed friend took Mandarin and I forget what else there. Told me it was a brutal brain-overloading experience, one I could tell he hadn't relished, but at least he got to use Mandarin during hs military career.

Haiduk and db_zero,

If that black thing I asked Steve about and is visible in both the firefight video and the video of the tank hunters is a Panzerfaust 3, have to say it's really nasty looking, (downright ominous appearing) and looks like an SF weapon, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 10, 2022 by John Kettler

[BletchleyGeek]

5 minutes ago, Boche said:

To be honest IMO I dont think there is such a thing as light infantry anymore. There hasnt been for a long time.

And this. I was "light infantry" and our AT weapons were M40 105mm recoilless rifles. We would have been stamped over like bugs.

I am old too.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Four out of the five planes mentioned are leased planes from Boeing and Airbus, which very likely have stringent contracts for maintenance that would make embezzling much more difficult. Though Russia is perhaps considering allowing outside firms to maintain airliners, which would be a different matter, especially without ready access to spare parts.

 

No surprise. I think probably “four out of five” commercial airplanes in the world are leased. Most from Boeing, Airbus, and GE Capital Leasing. Just like with land vehicles, you can have the “latest and greatest,” for less expense when you lease. It will be interesting to see how many of those Russian Commercial airplanes end up landing at non-Russian airports while declaring “an emergency” or a “hijacking!”

Edited March 10, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Armorgunner]

I have unfortunately, not been able to be a part of this community. For a couple of days, becouse of reasons.

 

[Lethaface]

20 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk and db_zero,

If that black thing I asked Steve about and is visible in both the firefight video and the video of the tank hunters is a Panzerfaust 3, have to see it's really nasty looking, (downright ominous appearing) and looks like an SF weapon, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

There are PzFaust 3's in the video, with 2 different rounds/variants. I think one is the PzF3-IT (with the long nose). See here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerfaust_3

Edited March 10, 2022 by Lethaface

[db_zero]

Not too long ago people were lamenting the billions spent in Afghanistan trying to build a modern army in the image of the west and what a spectacular failure it was.

Now we're seeing another army built in the image of the west and its a spectacular success.

Both instances are going to be the subject of a lot of studies in the future.

 

[John Kettler]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... But there is English word for this. Floodplain of Irpin' river hystorically was swampy, so in post-war Soviet times with swamp terrains struggled with special meliorative canals, which bypassed the water from the swamps to the rivers. This allowed to dry the terrain at least partilaly. You can find WWII time map of the same place and see the difference.

Haiduk,

Greatly appreciate your explanation. Believe the US equivalent term would be drainage channels, because when we saw canals here, it refers to some sort of deliberately engineered navigable waterway.

Shifting gears, many posts back I asked you to recommend a source from which I could learn to ID modernish-modern Russian AFVs, and all the other stuff we're seeing disabled, dead or captured. You seem to have them all memorized--or maybe just have a great reference. If the latter, what is it/are they, and is this a book or site in English?

Regards,

John Kettler

[dan/california]

The people who are running this war for Ukraine will get very tired of lecturing at every staff college in the western world. They won't get a day off

5 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Not too long ago people were lamenting the billions spent in Afghanistan trying to build a modern army in the image of the west and what a spectacular failure it was.

Now we're seeing another army built in the image of the west and its a spectacular success.

Both instances are going to be the subject of a lot of studies in the future.

 

for years.

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

I'm reading a (bad) translation of that supposed FSB document now I think? if its real, then it is real bleak. one of the lines that stood out to me was:

"By and large, the country has no way out. It’s just that there is no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, sailed at all. They 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that the army was in trouble."

I have seen a lot of comparisons recently to other conflicts as people grasp to explain this not just to nerds like us, but the public. The Russo-Japanese war is one I have forgotten about, but probably a good one to think about in this context.

(edit, i know its been around for a while, but this is the first I have heard of the document)

As I've been putting it to people, a Russo-Japanese War but ending in a Tet rather than a Tsushima.

[Fenris]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Not too long ago people were lamenting the billions spent in Afghanistan trying to build a modern army in the image of the west and what a spectacular failure it was.

Now we're seeing another army built in the image of the west and its a spectacular success.

Both instances are going to be the subject of a lot of studies in the future.

 

 

Not sure there's that much equivalency really.  The starting positions are quite different IMO.  A unified nation state vs an external threat compared to a country that was not unified vs an internal threat.  The later is always more complex and Afghanistan was even more corrupt and fractured compared to most of UKR I reckon.

[John Kettler]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

DesertFox,

Yet more V force SO troops. Have seen so many more V marked AFVs and MT that I believe it's fair to say that the true size of the V force is at least twice what we'd previously seen

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 10, 2022 by John Kettler

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

It was/is mechanized but my impression is they're holding back, spot-fighting in support and occasional counter-attacks. I saw one opinion that tanks are used to draw the RUS armor, moths to a flame, which are then slammed by ATGM screens.

That said, the UKR gov do list several hundred UKR MBTs destroyed/captured, which shakes out. It makes some operational sense to penny packet your tanks behind a dispersed and flexible AT inf force, so long as you can rely on that force. Which, with 17K AT weapons provided and an extremely motivated infantry, I think they can.

If UKR can get proper, coordinated and redundant suppression of RUF battlefield Air then a large scale counter attack with those saved tanks could be very dangerous. 

As noted by others, UKR cannot attack until they can deal with the RUS Air. I dont believe MIGs will do it, but a flexible, networked AA/AD would be sufficient, based on how chickensh*t the RUS AF is when faced with something other than children in schools and mothers in hospitals. Assh*les.

Also, don’t forget that “General Mud” is impartial. If the UA counterattacked now, they’d face the same movement problems as the RA. UKR is remaining flexible by using infantry with AI weapons, while the RA seemed to be blindly following the prewar planning. That’s the difference between Western training of the new UA, and the Soviet training of the pre-2014 UA and current RA.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Not too long ago people were lamenting the billions spent in Afghanistan trying to build a modern army in the image of the west and what a spectacular failure it was.

Now we're seeing another army built in the image of the west and its a spectacular success.

Both instances are going to be the subject of a lot of studies in the future.

 

Although the Afghan Mujahedeen were rather successful using Western weapons against Soviets inside Afghanistan. 

Now obviously the West has supported the color revolutions and Maidan politically and financially etc, but I think the main difference is that Ukrainians want to fight for their country and asked for help. So that is a clear mission fit for a military: train soldiers willing to train.

The post 9/11 Afghanistan invasion and occupation was a rather different affair, which did indeed fail miserably in the end, although that wasn't really that surprising; it would have required much more money blood and time for starters. But I digress  

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Umm, Panzerbuechse, anyone?

 

 

DesertFox,

Old indeed. My eyes are bleary, but I unambiguously saw the classic Soviet GPW sniper rig--Mosin Nagant carbine with the PSO-1 telescopic sight fitted. Saw at least one other Mosinn Nagant carbine and the front part of a PTRS/PTRD (not sure which) antitank rifle.  Am sure the separatists are not thrilled with their battle technology, to use the translated Russian term.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 10, 2022 by John Kettler

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

In your tournament Ru leadership wouldn't do very well I guess 

 

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Umm, Panzerbuechse, anyone?

 

 

Here’s some more food for thought. I, as a former U.S. Marine can no more play the Russian Campaign with the thought processes of a Russian than a former Russian military man can play the U.S. Campaign from a Western thought process. I freely admit this, so the outcomes of my missions as RA are irrevocably skewed by my training. I recognize and accept this inability, but I cannot change it.

[db_zero]

25 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Although the Afghan Mujahedeen were rather successful using Western weapons against Soviets inside Afghanistan. 

Now obviously the West has supported the color revolutions and Maidan politically and financially etc, but I think the main difference is that Ukrainians want to fight for their country and asked for help. So that is a clear mission fit for a military: train soldiers willing to train.

The post 9/11 Afghanistan invasion and occupation was a rather different affair, which did indeed fail miserably in the end, although that wasn't really that surprising; it would have required much more money blood and time for starters. But I digress  

I have a bias based on past living experience in the Middle East-no amount of time and money would have changed the outcome I'll just leave it at that. No real practical experience with Eastern Europe. I did know someone who emigrated from Moscow and we would swap stories. He would always lament how the corruption was in Russia. Perhaps no amount of money spent by Moscow will produce a highly efficient military and Russia will always be a clumsy military that will rely on brute force.

Based on a video posted earlier today a picture is emerging regarding the Ukrainian army. Apparently it was riddled with corruption and in a piss poor shape in 2014. It was re-organized and the western nations tasked with training it started from the bottom up working on the basics like tactics, weaning it away from the over-centralized Russian model and empowering the NCO's to make decisions instead of relying on officers to micromanage.

Sounds like the past few years much was done on a higher level training mid and senior level officers the operational skills like combined arms and coordinating units and other operational skills.

When all is said and done Ukraine is going to possess a western trained military with a lot of combat experience that is far different than the Middle East.

I keep hearing from media sources that based in their sources the Russian army will eventually be able to bring their superior resources and firepower to ground down the Ukrainians, I'll have to defer to those who know more than me, but my gut tells me the Russians are a spent force, but maybe they are just re-grouping and the worst is still yet to come.

Edited March 10, 2022 by db_zero

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

My goodness, another Pantsir...

 

edit: nope we already have had that one 3 days ago:

 

 

 

DesertFox,

Don't recall seeing any captured Pantsir in firing order. No wonder Ukrainian drones are doing so well. Pantsir was specifically designed to protect mobile strategic SAMs from all sorts of aerial threats, first using missiles to deal with threats as far away as possible, then guns as a last ditch measure against inbound targets inside the strategic SAM's Rmin aka dead zone. Among other things, it was designed to defeat the US HARM.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 10, 2022 by John Kettler