How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is interesting about this is that the US and Europe are likely already contributing the most dangerous thing they can, ISR.  A lot of those Russian tanks that are getting "blowd up" are likely a result of ISR feeds be given to the Ukrainians from the West, particularly satellite. 

Yes, I'm sure you're right about this. NATO is feeding Ukraine with all the intel they can.. this is probably also a large part of the reason we see so many ambushed Russian columns, air landings getting shot down, most of the UKR airforce still surviving, etc.

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Every year Russia holds a big military parade. Rows of soldiers marching, shiny tanks and afv go rolling past the stand.

Going to be interesting to see it this year…if for some reason it isn’t canceled.

Already rehearsing it mate - sneak preview image ...

 

[DesertFox]

Starstreak missiles. Nice!

Starstreak - Wikipedia

 

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm also a Cold War kid, and I must admit that this feels different. The whole MAD doctrine is based on both actors being rational.

Two questions: How crazy is Putin really? Could he launch if he wanted to?

Question is how crazy is everyone in and around the chain of nuclear command.

It's not like he has a big red button connected remotely to every nuke in the country - especially considering extremely dated and rusty russian military communication technology.

That order will have to go through a lot of people willing to die in a nuclear fire.

In fact Cold War history knows a few of such examples with near launches caused by human error and stopped by cool heads.

[Probus]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think what has changed is the BMD equation.  I have no idea what the US has been working on for over 30 years but the thanks to NK, the ability to hit incoming ICBMs is no longer zero in the US (not sure about the rest of the West).  And what had to be keeping Russian leadership up at night is just how high above "zero" that number is, because it breaks MAD when it gets high enough.  We do know it is not 100% ability to stop nuclear attack or there would be NATO involvement in this war, and it would likely be over. 

@The_Capt, Have you seen this doomsday submarine, the Belgorod, that was undergoing sea trials last year?  Carries the Poseidon nuclear powered, nuclear tipped torpedo:

http://www.hisutton.com/Poseidon_Torpedo.html

http://www.hisutton.com/Spy Subs -Project 09852 Belgorod.html

Also Sub Brief:

 

[Erwin]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Question is how crazy is everyone in and around the chain of nuclear command.

 

Can't see Putin as crazy when you see what he's done to build up Russia in the past decades.  As posted elsewhere, am thinking that if Russia can capture Ukrainian infrastructure like nuke plants and keep the land bridge between Crimea and Russian open, it will go on the defensive.

Attacking Russian forces will be much harder than the current Ukrainian defensive strategy which seems mostly "hit and run".

That would give Putin the "win" at least for his domestic audience.  

The big question is how much will China help Russia, and if China learns any lessons from this situation.  Will it be more likely to encourage China to continue its own aggression in S China Sea and vs Taiwan, or will China be discouraged?

Russia is still a regional nuisance.  China is going for world domination.  Kinda like Italy and Germany relationship in WW2.

 

[akd]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is interesting about this is that the US and Europe are likely already contributing the most dangerous thing they can, ISR.  A lot of those Russian tanks that are getting "blowd up" are likely a result of ISR feeds be given to the Ukrainians from the West, particularly satellite. 

The problem of crossing the Rubicon in these scenarios is to make sure you know where it actually is.

And likewise, ATGMs and MANPADS are likely to kill far more Russians in Ukraine than MiG-29s.  The main effect of MiG-29s would be to frustrate Russia’s ability to bomb where it wants whenever it wants (and we already know it wants to bomb cities), or to dedicate its entire multi-role fighter force solely to bombing.  Fighters are just as defensive, if not more so from a broader defense of the population standpoint, as any handheld weapon.  Allowing Putin to set irrational redlines rather than approaching them rationally is a huge mistake.

Edited March 9, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

And likewise, ATGMs and MANPADS are likely to kill far more Russians in Ukraine than MiG-29s.  The main effect of MiG-29s would be to frustrate Russia’s ability to bomb where it wants whenever it wants (and we already know it wants to bomb cities), or to dedicate its entire multi-role fighter force solely to bombing.  Fighters are just as defensive, if not more so from a broader defense of the population standpoint, as any handheld weapon.  Allowing Putin to set irrational redlines rather than approaching them rationally is a huge mistake.

Absolutely, I suspect we are already seeing an erosion of our doctrinal concepts around big expensive platforms as Ukraine seems to be waging the first smart-missile defensive war, of this century at least.

The use of a Mig-29 is more likely an information win, they nail a few Russian birds or get some really “Wow” strikes that go all over social media but the heavy lifting is being done by small missile teams and good old infantry dug and slugging it out.

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

 this is getting kind of old now.  You recall something about Javelins?  $350 million in weapons and supplies delivered in less than a week? Any supplies the US has been giving for a couple years now?  Massive sanctions beyond anything with the possible exception of those against Iraq when it invaded Kuwait?

The West is doing a balancing act.  We are giving as much equipment as we can without providing Putin with any pretext to widen the war which frankly would play well for him at home and give him an out better than having to say the UKR kicked his ass.  We appreciate you'd like us to just go all in and crush the Russian military.  That isn't going to happen.  Poland jumped the gun here and likely made a hash of the plan.

Flying fighter jets from a NATO country into a combatant is exactly the kind of thing Putin wants to justify the war as a fight against a NATO incursion. It also is quite escalatory. We’ve already escalated a ton. We have to demonstrate to the Russians and to everyone else that there are limits to what we will do. That makes Russian escalation harder and lowers the chances this gets out of hand. People have to get their Cold War game faces on. That’s how you fight without everyone dying immolated in a nuclear explosion. I understand and sympathize with the immediate desire to end this as fast as possible but the MiG's are mostly symbolic at this point. They won't actually end things faster and quite possibly make things worse.

 

Ye

[Kinophile]

If I was Putin I would create a tenuous line from Belarus to Crimes, cordoning off East Ukraine (,lincl. Kiev) and state it as the new Russian border. Anyone attacking across gets nuked (existing stated RUS nuclear policy re borders) and treat the subjugation of Kiev et al as an "internal matter".

This is what Putin means when he threatens "Loss of Statehood" - the denial of the moral right of anyone to "interfere".

That cordon doesn't need to be perfect, just effective enough to claim a new border.

We're thinking too "Western". There's an echo chamber effect in this thread if how badly the RUS forces are doing, and they are, but Putin doesn't need them to do well, just barely ok is fine, so long as they cut off East UKR , at whatever human cost.

Putin simply doesn't care how many people die, of whatever nationality, in order to achieve his goal - absorption of Ukraine and destruction of it as a cultural concept.

This man is willing to level entire cities to achieve his desire. He's done it in Syria and he'll do it in Ukraine.

Popular revolution is not going to happen. This isn't 1989 or even 1917.

This is 1938 all over again.

 

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, Erwin said:

The big question is how much will China help Russia, and if China learns any lessons from this situation.  Will it be more likely to encourage China to continue its own aggression in S China Sea and vs Taiwan, or will China be discouraged?

We have avoided talking about the Dragon on this thread but maybe it is time to broaden the discussion.  I personally think that the only real potential “winners” in this war are NATO and China.  NATO has just gained what it so badly needed, relevance.  Unless we are talking a total collapse of Russia, NATO will have a job out to the 22nd century thanks to Putin.

China is the other potential big winner.  This war will likely push Russia into Chinas orbit-ack the historical trust but in order to have a semblance of an economy, Russia will swallow all that because, money.  That puts all of Russia’s resources in Chinas hands, as we just cancelled them, and for cheap.  This will continue to feed Chinas massive ambitions with the means to do it.  My thinking is that China is many things but normally they are not stupid, so a overt military action could totally screw up the good deal they are staring at for now good reason.  Like Ukraine, Taiwan is not a existential emergency for China but also like Ukraine we do know nations are very capable of acting irrationally.  So I think it comes down to a question of China remaining smart and quietly making major gains while we get all scope eye on Russia and Europe.

[akd]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The use of a Mig-29 is more likely an information win, they nail a few Russian birds or get some really “Wow” strikes that go all over social media but the heavy lifting is being done by small missile teams and good old infantry dug and slugging it out.

Continuing to exist as a threat completely alters the nature of Russia’s air operations.  Every sortie requires an escort, reducing the number of planes that can carry bombs and increasing the fuel consumed per bomb dropped.  Probably also almost entirely negates Russia’s ability to use big transports to bring troops or material in without an all out air effort that drains everything else.

Edited March 9, 2022 by akd

[kraze]

40 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Can't see Putin as crazy when you see what he's done to build up Russia in the past decades.  As posted elsewhere, am thinking that if Russia can capture Ukrainian infrastructure like nuke plants and keep the land bridge between Crimea and Russian open, it will go on the defensive.

Attacking Russian forces will be much harder than the current Ukrainian defensive strategy which seems mostly "hit and run".

That would give Putin the "win" at least for his domestic audience.  

The big question is how much will China help Russia, and if China learns any lessons from this situation.  Will it be more likely to encourage China to continue its own aggression in S China Sea and vs Taiwan, or will China be discouraged?

Russia is still a regional nuisance.  China is going for world domination.  Kinda like Italy and Germany relationship in WW2.

 

Not sure what exactly has putin done to build up Russia in the past decades...

The vast majority of russians live in poverty, it's just that their GDP numbers are written on the other side of a piece of imported toilet paper that has their "modern" army stats written on it, while they fight in an Afghanistan era helmets. According to russian Vedomosti Russia today sees a shortage of cashier check tape due to sanctions because they import the damn thing.

As for the "land bridge" - Putin doesn't give a rat's arse about that one, he wants whole Ukraine, it's ideological to him. Not to mention that having a "land bridge" wouldn't quite work a few months down the line when cops that protect the dwarf will have to wipe their butt using the birch tree bark.

As for China - russian banks are now mass moving towards yuan as a primary foreign currency. Not sure that being so dependent on one of the least reliable countries similar to yours will be much of a help.

Edited March 9, 2022 by kraze

[db_zero]

Like many I’m a Cold War kid. Studied the Soviet Union and NATO vs Warsaw Pact quite a bit back in the day.

I think todays world is far more dangerous. During Cold War it was basically a bi-polar world. Now it’s multipolar. 

You have more countries with nukes and don’t be surprised if more start seeking them as a way to insure their national sovereignty.

You have a more connected world, social media, economies more interconnected and wealth distribution heavily tilted towards the top. Nations that were once creditor nations are deep in debt.

Some even believe we may see an end of democracy in America as we knew it in a couple of election cycles. The demographics of the US is rapidly changing and the stress cracks are showing.

China which was not a economic superpower during the Cold War now is and has built up its military and flexing its muscles.

This whole Ukraine situation is a lot like the 1973 Yom-Kippur period. You had everyone questioning the role of the main battle tank after the Israelis suffered heavily from ATGMs (studied this a lot and is a whole separate and interesting topic).

President Nixon threatened nuclear war by putting US nuclear forces on high alert as US and the Soviet Union were on a collision course over support of their respective client states.

You also had a sever oil shock and years of inflation and stagflation-something I foresee for the West in the coming years

Edited March 9, 2022 by db_zero

[Haiduk]

Territorial defense in Sumy oblast ambushed one more convoy. Tank, truck with fuel, medical MRAP AS-L "Linza" based of Typhoon 4x4 type and some unidentified further on the road (the second video)

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Russian convoy on the move somewhere. Still being edgelord trolls with their Soviet flags:

 

[Lethaface]

Born '82 so wasn't really conscious of the whole cold war threat. But not really scared about MAD now either. Of course, if you think about it too much it's a scary / strange idea that things can all be over in a big flash after some button pushes. Why would anyone do it?

But, if it comes it comes and it will probably be over very quick. It's all outside my control anyway, plus on average people with large responsibilities have enough braincells to not destroy their own livelihood, family and future for vague reasons.

On the other hand, seeking a war with Russia would be stupid. Not because of fearing them, but because the loss of life and destruction would only become larger.

I also don't buy the inevitable war with Russia. Maybe it comes, maybe it doesn't. I'd put my money on 'doesn't', because some quick fait-accompli like taking the Baltics seem less and less likely while the repercussions are clear. Nato won't start a war with Russia. 

Personally I believe Mr Putin will be drinking some nice special operation tea when he is thinking about starting thermo nuclear warfare.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Lethaface

[db_zero]

You’re definitely going to hear a lot of talk about the demise of the tank, just like you did after the 1973 Yom Kippur war. 
 

After the stunning 1967 victory Israel became a tank dominated army and neglected the mech infantry and artillery branch. Once they realized their error the hard way they changed tactics and rectified the imbalance and regained the upper hand.

No question weapons like Javelin, NLAW and Stinger make life far more perilous for tankers as well as helicopters and low flying aircraft, but I think the lack of tactical and operational finesse and execution is also a huge factor.

Its also clear there are basic structural flaws in the Russian military and society that are contributing factors.

If a Western Army like the US conducted a similar operation against a similar armed opponent like the Ukrainians I don’t think we would be seeing the same sort of results…the execution, coordination and finesse would produce different results.

Like the 1973 war this current conflict is going to result in a lot of study and research into ways to counter weapons like the Javelin.

[danfrodo]

Let the UKR pilots come and pick up the MIGS.  If we let him play this threat game with us like this it's ridiculous.  He is actively engaging in war crimes and we are to cringe every time he threatens us?  Like was mentioned above, we can't let him threaten us out of all our aid.  He already said sanctions were an act or war. 

This sounds like some lawyers got involved and are busy quibbling while Kyiv burns.  Let the non-NATO folks pick up the dang jets.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Continuing to exist as a threat completely alters the nature of Russia’s air operations.  Every sortie requires an escort, reducing the number of planes that can carry bombs and increasing the fuel consumed per bomb dropped.  Probably also almost entirely negates Russia’s ability to use big transports to bring troops or material in without an all out air effort that drains everything else.

Normally I would agree that this sets up some sort of Air Denial effect; however, Russian Air Force is pretty tepid and somewhat absent, so not sure as to change in calculus impacts there, and Russian risk acceptance is very different from what we have seen, so I am not sure we could count on Ukrainian airpower having as broad of an effect as it would have on us.  But hey, definitely worth trying, give them air-to-ship missiles while we are at it and try to shake up that dynamic.

So on the topic of "what hard power the west can bring to bear" which seems to be confounding a lot of people I would offer:

- SOF, special forces were made for this kind of work, so going in covertly into Ukraine to collect intelligence and provide AAA is no doubt on the table

- Posture on bordering NATO countries.  Already things are ramping up but there is room here for more shows of force that may make the Russians nervous...we can do exercises to.  This may force Russia to rethink putting all its ground forces into Ukraine

- Black Sea.  NATO has naval forces in the Mediterranean, is there an option to put them in the Black Sea (they have done it before) either in Turkish or Romanian waters.  This is definitely an escalation but perfectly legal.

-  Back doors.  Bering Sea and the Arctic.  These are all within reach, capability and legal frameworks for NATO/Allied demonstrations of force.

-Space.  A lot of unknowns within Space.  We have signed laws not to weaponize space but there are also grey areas one could drive a trick through.  Russia has space based assets that are vulnerable to cyber, at least, these could be on the table.

- Sharp Power.  The US and west can do political warfare as well, along with Cyber efforts to erode and subvert Russia from within are likely back on the table.  These actions tend to be hard to attribute so there is a lot of space here, biggest problem is that based on history one can not build these in a hurry, they take time and effort to set up.

All of these are measures short of no-fly zones or direct confrontation.  They are all tricky and could easily end in confrontation but could be on the table as strategic manoeuvre room. Some are likely already happening.  My point being that escalation is a nuanced space, not digital.  I see a lot of frustration from may corners that the west is not simply "rolling in" but there are still a lot of options on the table before we get to that.  Of course what really sucks if civilian dying all the while the west comes up with some sort of compression and "fixing" strategy on Russia.

[akd]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russian Air Force is pretty tepid and somewhat absent

In part, this is because Ukraine is still operating some of its fighters.

[db_zero]

A no fly zone over Ukraine is not just about the risk of NATO shooting down Russian aircraft.

The Russians have sophisticated SAMs like the S300 and S400 that would have to be suppressed. These sites are surrounded by mobile and static anti aircraft positions that would also need to be suppressed. 
 

The long range of the S300/400 and the overlapping nature of a layered air defense network would mean NATO would also have to suppress positions in Belarus and Russia itself.

We’re talking a major escalation. That’s why it’s completely off the table.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by db_zero

[kraze]

Painting MiG29s in Ukrainian colors and letting Ukrainian pilots fly them home isn't escalation, it's transfer of Ukrainian jets to Ukrainian airspace.

If putin really wants to justify a fight with NATO - he doesn't need any real reason to. Just like he never needed one for every single russian invasion ever.

He may just come on TV and say "today NATO bombed Voronezh, now we need to invade Lithuania and kill neonazis in there" - and it will work smoothly.

[Haiduk]

One more T-72B3M near Voznesensk, Mykolaiv oblast

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Combatintman]

@The_Capt - Kaliningrad is the low-hanging fruit for all of that posturing malarkey.  NATO/Europe could also make life a lot harder for them, close borders and stop anything coming over the land route, airspace I believe has been done already and it just needs a few grey fighting canoes in the Baltic to disrupt that route.