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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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No chance of it happening.  No support here in the US or within NATO.  Great concept, something that theoretically should happen, but going up against a crazy man armed with nukes is really not smart.  If Putin didn't have nukes, this war would have been over last week.

The best way to get a no-fly zone over Ukraine is to keep sending anti-air weaponry to Ukraine as fast as possible.  Apparently discussions are underway to get S-300 missiles to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

Steve

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3 minutes ago, Begemot said:

Steve,

You have a problem with the truth. Ukraine has a Nazi problem like here, the famous Azov battalion:

Azov Battalion - YouTube

If you want to pretend otherwise, fine. So if you and your chums can't face the reality then go ahead and be the little Nazi you are and send me to the Gulag.

pretty much every country has some nazi element.  f'd up but it is what it is.  Difference is in Russia the head of the country is a fascist.

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12 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I hate seeing a bunch of conscript kids being killed & wounded, but that's what  it's come down to.  Either russian conscript kids die or a free, independent democratic nation dies, along with lots of its citizens. 

Every destroyed convoy warms my heart.  And if the drivers escaped in panic back to their own lines to lower morale and cause more panic, that's a pretty good outcome w/o lots of dead russian kids.

"russian conscript kids" came here to kill, rob and rape - and many are doing it right now, mind you.

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11 hours ago, John Kettler said:

kraze,

Your point about no precision weapons in WW II is largely true, but by no means completely. RAND Corporation rated the kamikazes as precision weapons, since they could hit at least 50% of the time if left unmolested. The Germans had such precision aerial weapons as the mighty Fritz X which sank the battleship Roma and aiso severely injured British battleship HMS WARSPITE she was out of action for a year. The US Navy's television guided by radio control BAT guided bomb was a precision or near precision weapon in its own right.

And the mere fact that precision weapons are being used does not, ipso facto, prove that a deliberate attack was conducted against a civilian target. Even the fanciest weapons sometimes don't work or work too well on friendlies, never mind the enemy. During the Vietnam War, we somehow managed to fire a Shrike ARM at one of our cruisers. The missile went off just over masthead height, destroying every antenna topside and instantly defanging the ship. Weapons, even without enemy interference, can and do misguide or fail to guide. One of the things commentators have noticed is how high the failure rate is for Russian missiles, and visual evidence suggests their FAB-500 bomb has fuzing issues, too. Have seen pics for at least three duds of this type. And I've seen some arguments that the supposed Klub that hit the apartment building was actually a UA SAM. In my informed opinion, there simply wasn't enough destruction to sell that argument, absent significant deflagration. Returning to iron bombs, by far the most commonly used Russian aerial weapon is an iron bomb, and all it takes to cause one to significantly-drastically deviate from the expected ballistics is a bent fin. Precision guided munitions offer far more potential failure points, because of their complexity. If there's clear evidence (preferably evidences) of deliberate attack that's one thing, but the mere fact an air attack results in a hit, however damaging to people and structures alike on a civilian building, say, does not make a prima facie case for a war crime.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Pretty sure nearly 40 bombed hospitals, 200 destroyed schools and whole villages ceasing to exist - means russians know perfectly well what they are doing very deliberately.

And that's before we even get to pilots and arty POWs talking, as well as their docs filled with coordinates for civilian targets.

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2 minutes ago, sburke said:

we did see that idiot trying to break into the electronic store, but I have not heard a case yet of rape.

its war, i'm sure its happened. they kinda go hand in hand. not like the Russians would allow that stuff to be reported anyways. just look at Berlin in 46'.

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2 minutes ago, sburke said:

we did see that idiot trying to break into the electronic store, but I have not heard a case yet of rape.

Occupied Donbass is full of such events, "Izolyatsiya" itself is basically a prime example of such concentrarion camp, that also included torturing women through rape by russian soldiers.

And I'm pretty sure there's no difference between russian soldiers in there and anywhere else.

It's just that we don't know much yet about what they are doing on the currently occupied territories, apart from what is captured by the CCTV - but I wouldn't hold my breath.

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1 hour ago, Begemot said:

Steve,

You have a problem with the truth. Ukraine has a Nazi problem like here, the famous Azov battalion:

 

If you want to pretend otherwise, fine. So if you and your chums can't face the reality then go ahead and be the little Nazi you are and send me to the Gulag.

*Yawn*.  We've been over this before.  Ukraine has Azov, DPR has Sparta. Though at least this war is sorting that out some of this.  I'm sure lots of Azov Neo-Nazis are going to die in Mariupol from the artillery which isn't killing innocent civilians in their own homes, so that should make you happy.  Though you are probably sad that Russia's lost one of its favorite Neo-Nazis two days ago with the death of Sparta's commander:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17859386/russian-warlord-shot-dead-in-ukraine/

Another difference is that Ukraine's Azov wouldn't exist if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine and brought in its own Nazis like Paul Gubarev to illegally occupy sovereign Ukrainian soil:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Gubarev

Or this Russian Neo-Nazi fellow who fights with the illegal Wagner Group to spread misery outside of Russia's borders:

https://informnapalm.org/en/russian-neo-nazis-in-the-ranks-of-wagner-pmc/

Or others...

https://news.pn/ru/incidents/106809

https://newslanc.com/tsukerman-russian-nazi-volunteers-in-donbas/

I could keep going, but it's past my bed time and obviously you're not going to change your mind.

So yes, Ukraine has Nazis in it and so does Russia.  So does every democracy.  Good on you for pointing that out.  But really, I think a fascist country that attacks a democratic one for 8 years, killing thousands of civilians, should have just a wee bit more of cover story than "we're going to take out the Neo-Nazis in Ukraine that don't control the government and replace them with Russian Neo-Nazis that will".  Personally, I think it's some rather weak logic.

And with that, we end this tiresome push back against brainwashed trolls.  You can call me a Nazi all you like, but you obviously haven't a clue what one is so I'm not really offended.

Steve

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2 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I think at some point Ukraine is going to have to transition from knocking out tanks and Buk launchers from the air to going after rocket artillery. Each GRAD (or equivalent) knocked out is one less salvo of artillery rockets falling on population centers that evening. Its like fuel trucks. You knock out one, you knock out another, and another... eventually you start to make a dent in Russians' capabilities. 

On other hand... rocket artillery ammunition is super bulky and a major logistics drag. If it takes one truck to reload a single Grad launcher every time it fires they need a lot of trucks to keep things going. So more trucks, more congestion, more maintenance stress, more targets and fewer trucks carting other things about.

Edited by Hapless
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3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I suspect in the end Ukraine will give up Crimea and maybe half the disputed donbass territories, just to get clear borders. And will apply to join NATO ASAP.  They will never agree to not join NATO, that could be suicide. 

Nope, you are wrong.

NATO is very much off the table at this point for one major reason - NATO is extremely afraid of Russia and will never accept Ukraine ASAP. They are afraid of helping us now directly - do you realistically think they will want (have the balls) to defend us if we were a member?

It's the reason Baltic states are so worried because they see how potentially not ready NATO is and there's a chance it won't protect them either.

So in the absolutely "best" case scenario joining will take years, years we wouldn't have, especially if agreeing to any of russian terms.

However with what little indirect help NATO does provide it's possible to survive this and see Russia finally cease existing.

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36 minutes ago, kraze said:

Pretty sure nearly 40 bombed hospitals, 200 destroyed schools and whole villages ceasing to exist - means russians know perfectly well what they are doing very deliberately.

And that's before we even get to pilots and arty POWs talking, as well as their docs filled with coordinates for civilian targets.

Russia was accused of using the "do not target list" of hospitals published by the UN to target those very same hospitals.

When you're waging a war against the people of a country, then it's a natural strategy to target the people.  Russia is just doing the logical thing by targeting civilians.

Clearly Russia isn't waging a war against Nazis or even democracy.  This isn't about NATO or the EU either.  It's about retaliating against the people of Ukraine because they dare to want something more than 2nd class citizenship in a fascist federation.  That and they might give Russians the idea that kleptocratic fascism isn't the best form of government out there.

Steve

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58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No chance of it happening.  No support here in the US or within NATO.  Great concept, something that theoretically should happen, but going up against a crazy man armed with nukes is really not smart.  If Putin didn't have nukes, this war would have been over last week.

The best way to get a no-fly zone over Ukraine is to keep sending anti-air weaponry to Ukraine as fast as possible.  Apparently discussions are underway to get S-300 missiles to Ukraine as quickly as possible.

Steve

Really? Does NATO really have stocks of S300 sitting around?

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I think the Russian strategy has now turned from a general advance into keeping a hold on the places they already got.. while inflicting as much damage on the cities and civilians as possible.

This will then be used as a bargaining chip - probably the goal is now to return to the state before this invasion, leaving Russians in control of Crimea (and the land bridge) and DPR and LPR recognised as independent.

Ukrainians have shown themselves capable of defence and ambushing Russians, but will they also be able to go on the offense? I'm not seeing the situation map change much for the last week or so.

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41 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

Yup, the Greeks have a bunch.

I think our government should not be willing to send those. We can't use them against our seller (Russia) Plus we are in constant threat from Erdogan. Last time Turkey did a "mini Putin" in Cyprus, (and still holding north with 40.000 troops) nobody really cared. 

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