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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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On 2/28/2022 at 8:06 AM, CHEqTRO said:

A whole convoy of russian forces found abandoned by civilians. I hope the ukranian forces or the civilians themselves are disabling them, so they cannot be retaken by the Russians

The intervehicular separation distance is nothin short of staggering. Shall be most interested to know the cause of this, if ever learned. Also, its composition looks like a Russian version of a tiny WW II German kampfgruppe: tanks, BMPs, BTRs, trucks, even a Msta-S. Wild!

Speaking of armor, looks like at least some Russian tanks, are sporting fake bag armor on their flanks.

 

The content of the 'shopping bag armour' attached to the side skirts of Russian T-72B3 Obr. 2016s and T-80BVMs deployed to #Ukraine truly look like egg cartons.
 
 
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Видра-унічтожиня@povnesvavillya·Mar 5Replying to @oryxspioenkopThis is how irl bast-headed russian army looks like. Egg cartons, logs, fake bulletproof vests and first aid kits with Esmarch's tourniquet. Good luck russian 🐷🐶3139RaptoReactive@RaptoReactive·Mar 5Inertia armor, it will work like any other NERAQuote

TweetMika Mäenpää@MMaenpaa1 · Mar 5 Replying to @oryxspioenkopHere is how those were suppose to be filled...
Inertia armor, it will work like any other NERA
 
· Mar 5
Replying to @oryxspioenkop
Here is how those were suppose to be filled...

FNFbhyiXoAo1tO2?format=jpg&name=medium
 


Regards,

John Kettler

P.S.

The comment about logs wasn't ref unditching beams but attempts to use them as armor. Have seen pics of trucks whose front and cab sides were covered by logs.

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Am so far behind in this thread I have no idea what has and hasn't bee addressed since, but I did want to note the Ukrainian MInistry of Defense had officially announced the downing of an Su-34 near Volnovakha, Ukraine in the Donetsk region. This was an outright mistake, because the tail number RF-93026, clearly visible in the wreck image, is unambiguously that a Su-25. Running the tail number brought me to this aviation incident site, which identified the downed aircraft as Su-25SM3, a model I'm pretty sure we knew nothing of in my military aerospace days.  Reported the ID issue to military writer Ilia Ponomarenko on Twitter, and he has made the correction.

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/276147




Regards,

John Kettler

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Ukrainian aviation hit this night Chornobaivka airfield near Kherson, occupied by Russians. The enemy deployed there many helicopters and troops. UKR claimed 30 helicopters hit, also three Russian columns around Mykolaiv were bombetd

Close to the morning, Russians shelled Mykolaiv with Smerch MLRS. They targeted "Zoria-Mashproekt" factory (design&manufacturing of military ship engines), but most of rockets hit residential ares. 

Mykolaiv during and after the strike

Зображення

About hour ago Russian troops attacked Mykolaiv again and entered in city airport. The city mayor Vitaly Kim claimed, UKR forces launched counter attack

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Ukraine claimed Russian combat ship was hit this night near Odesa. Here a video, where MLRS Grad firing and something then burning far in the sea.

Reportedly, several days ago two Russian boats were sunk during attempt of landing near Ochakiv naval base. Its could be armored landing-assault boats "Raptor" class, but for now this unknown.  

 

Edited by Haiduk
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7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.

If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

And used a woodshed for cover ....

Anyway - it would appear that CM's spotting model for Russian tanks is bang on the money and not nerfed as many, who have disappeared from the forums in the last fortnight, have been alleging.

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On 2/28/2022 at 10:17 AM, Haiduk said:

Bayraktar's strike. At least minus one Buk or even more because of detonation of missiles. 20 km NW from Ivankiv, Kyiv oblast

8b02b86-buk-690.jpg

Haiduk,

Much appreciate the drone footage and still. Broadly concur with your assessment. Was surprised primary hit didn't result in a major explosion, but it sure looked like to me, judging from that huge secondary explosion, that the BulkTELAR and missile transporter were destroyed, with the possible bonus being that truk on the far side of the missile transporter. As for Bayraktar, have read Ukraine has now received a total of 30, creating immense opportunities for ruining the invader's day (and night?).

Regards,

John Kettler

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Winston Churchill was renowned for his wartime speeches, but Zelensky is not only a worthy rival, but, I believe, is better. In fairness to Churchill, though, Germans were not rocketing and bombing London, didn't have hit squads in the city or the City of London and didn't have large ground forces practically encircling it or swarming into the country.

Written down like this Zelenskiy’s address tonight reads like a powerful poem.
 
 
Image

 
Edited by John Kettler
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7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Except for the part where they returned to the same firing position for shot 2. The fact that they could, and not suffer the consequences speaks volumes for the utter failure of RUS armor/inf coordination and integration.

If I did that in CMBS, pffft, fuggeddaboutit.

Putting on my cynical hat for the moment, we never see the shots hitting the tanks.  It is a possibility that the tanks were knocked out in an engagement that wasn't filmed, and then the video was shot with the tanks already dead as a 're-creation'.

Although it might be exactly as shown - at that range I wouldn't really expect someone filming stuff to pop out of cover just to get a good view of the tanks. That would seem unwise.

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On 2/28/2022 at 10:27 AM, Lethaface said:

Seems they hit the TELAR, vehicle next to it seems only launcher or ammo vehicle?

Lethaface,

That vehicle next to the TELAR is a missile resupply vehicle, on the same chassis as the Buk. MY eyes aren't working all that great right now, but it appears there may be 8 missiles on that transporter= 2 complete reloads for the Buk TELAR. Really want BDA from this strike.

Regards,

John Kettler

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9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

More stuff for ebay. That BTR has some bulletholes in it. 7,62mm or 13mm caliber? What is your guess?

 

Farmer says this BTR captured near Grebelky village in 22 km NE from Brovary and there are two more captured Russian BTRs, which need to tug here. Grebelky in 11 km southern from Zavorychi village, where our KORD police destroyed 2 Russian tanks with RPG-7  

Edited by Haiduk
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Ref V special ops force, imagery I've seen reveals there were other pieces of it not present in that strip of town or village hwhere the local cursed the Russians throughout his video/s. Specifically, military journalist lia Ponomarenko posted a BMD-2 with dead Russians (faces not visible and no gore) sprawled atop it on the hull top near the turret and aft of that. This one was labeled sensitive and blurred out by Twitter, but you can see it by choosing to override the blurring. Here is a tank originally part of V that certainly doesn't seem to be in a village or town. All imagery is directly from Igor Girkin's Twitter.

FM_5Eh2WQAc3ziH?format=jpg&name=medium
 

Here is a second V marked tank.


Another V stray. Flubbed IDs corrected by Haiduk info Upper photo is BTR-MDM, lower photo FO vehicle 1V119 Reostat  

FM12iH_XoAIBn3S?format=jpg&name=medium


FM12ibbWUAE2uNv?format=jpg&name=small

Were these originally to hold snatched key Ukrainians, their corpses or both for return to Russia. We know what they're ostensibly doing, but can we trust that?
 

 
Convoys of Russian ambulances keep hauling wounded Russian soldiers to the hospitals in southern #Belarus from #Ukraine.
 
 
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All in all, what I've dug up, when placed in context, indicates the V force was considerably larger and far more powerful than I first thought. Looks like the column, variously, fell apart, was cut apart or was never a coherent whole to begin with. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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Брянская обл, 4 марта

The video link didn't work, but this one's right below the tank video, and shows quite a truck column, including Tigr-STS and a BBV command truck.

In other news,  the Russians have lost two Tor SAM TELARS, one in original paint and static, the other in winter whitewash and being towed by a tractor. 

Regards,

John Kettler
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1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Putting on my cynical hat for the moment, we never see the shots hitting the tanks.  It is a possibility that the tanks were knocked out in an engagement that wasn't filmed, and then the video was shot with the tanks already dead as a 're-creation'.

Although it might be exactly as shown - at that range I wouldn't really expect someone filming stuff to pop out of cover just to get a good view of the tanks. That would seem unwise.

I think the tanks were abandoned but that they were used as an opportunity to film a little propaganda. Especially when you consider the UKR troops immediately start posing after they tke the tanks out. In a real fight, you'd probably make sure the area was clear first.

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33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@John Kettler

These photos already were posted here in previous days,but they already deep in the thread. This is not BMD-1KSH. Upper photo is BTR-MDM, lower photo FO vehicle 1V119 Reostat

Haiduk,

As I noted in my earlier post, had not seen the content in the 70+ pages unread by me during my, er, absence. Appreciate correct IDs. Did best I could under circumstances, but thanks to you, was able to fix the flubbed IDs!  Do you have a link to a modern Russian AFV and soft-skin recognition guide. Much of this stuff didn't exist when I was a Soviet Threat Analyst or we didn't know about it. When trying to identify the VDV command track (via Wiki BMD writeup), was blown away by the long list of specialist BMDs, including drone launch and control, long range radio, SATCOM, etc. "Where does he get those wonderful toys?"


Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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Sorry for some reason my previous post wouldn't let me write any more text or add any more twitter links so I have to break it up. 

Anyway if I were an occupier all that protest stuff would scare the hell out of me. When old women in puffy jackets face down your rifles with the flag around their shoulders, youre just done. This is how you end up like Cortes in Mexico, sure you have city hall but the other side has the entire rest of the city and has you besieged. 

 

Can I just say I hate this guy's maps? I understand with my front brain what hes getting at, the 'area' style war maps represent control where it really doesn't exist. Its a pretty inaccurate way of depicting war, any war. Fine. But I find his maps very challenging to read and very hard to understand. There is a whole branch of cartography which seems to emphasize accuracy over everything else, but IMO at the end of a day maps have to be read visually to convey information. And this map conveys very little compared to a similar map with the more inaccurate 'area' layout. 

Edited by BeondTheGrave
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