Yskonyn Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) News here reports a cease fire of 5 hrs from 8 am onwards to let civilians evacuate the mariupol area. The news also mentioned that defense experts (dutch) expect an intensifying effort to consolidate the south east area and create the ‘land bridge’ between Donetsk and Mariupul area toward the coast as well as a siege of Kiev. Now, the first part seems likely, but from what I read here in this thread the Russians are far from besieging Kiev properly so far? Can anyone elaborate? Edited March 5, 2022 by Yskonyn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, womble said: Looks like Russia is definitely shaping to escalate their devastation of urban areas, if they're giving room for civilians to leave so that they don't get the terrible optics of flattening a city with near half a million people in it. Their historical process for such reduction has been described in the thread, but so have their logistical problems. Do the RA have enough munitions to level city blocks and then curtain them off from reinforcement while their gropos go in? Some suggest maybe not. They certainly don't have enough to level the whole country. But enough to make more and more people hate them. They also refuse to let civilians leave, because in their doctrine they need someone to terrorize to lower the will to resist. Can't terrorize a guy with a gun. Granted at this moment russians agreed to give "green corridor" to evacuate civilians from Mariupol starting in 10 minutes and I would be surprised (actually want to be) if it doesn't end up in a tragedy as usual. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, Yskonyn said: News here reports a cease fire of 5 hrs from 8 am onwards (dutch time) to let civilians evacuate the mariupol area. The news also mentioned that defense experts (dutch) expect an intensifying effort to consolidate the south east area and create the ‘land bridge’ between Donetsk and Mariupul area toward the coast as well as a siege of Kiev. Now, the first part seems likely, but from what I read here in this thread the Russians are far from besieging Kiev properly so far? Can anyone elaborate? If they take Mariupol they have that "bridge" on paper. It's not like that very moment Ukraine is going to call them and be like "Congratulations! you have a road connecting Russia and Crimea! Please don't turn off your console while reality is being saved" and let them keep it. What I'm saying is that the south is notoriously hard to defend when you have an empty steppe with no forest areas in the north and a sea in the south. As for Kyiv - massive nope at this point unless something changes. Human waves at Hostomel are also mind boggling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taranis Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, kraze said: They certainly don't have enough to level the whole country. But enough to make more and more people hate them. They also refuse to let civilians leave, because in their doctrine they need someone to terrorize to lower the will to resist. Can't terrorize a guy with a gun. Granted at this moment russians agreed to give "green corridor" to evacuate civilians from Mariupol starting in 10 minutes and I would be surprised (actually want to be) if it doesn't end up in a tragedy as usual. Yes, i don't think they do this for being see as humans but more for preparing a bad trick (like in Budapest '45 with parlementaries) or simply for having more time and free hands to reorganize and prepare the next step 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George MC Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Ground to air seems effective. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) A 7 hour window at pretty short notice doesn't sound like a lot of time to get half a million people from a city that's been under siege for a while along what might normally be a 3 hour drive (according to gEarth... maybe 4 if it's a different Zaporizhzhia to the one of four I was offered by the map..) to "safety". So much could go wrong. I hope it doesn't. By the same token, 7 hours isn't that long to sort out the kind of problems that the RA seems to have at the moment. Edit: The beeb are saying that the Mayor of Mariupol is expecting to evacuate up to 9000 people. Which is 9000 fewer to have to suffer the barbaric bombardment by thermobarics that's inevitably coming, but not really much of a fig leaf to cover the upcoming war crimes. Edited March 5, 2022 by womble Additional data/opinion 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 About the "green corridor" in Mariupol: sigh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 35 minutes ago, George MC said: Ground to air seems effective. In a better quality Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, THH149 said: When is Rasputitsa - when the land becomes a sea of mud - in Ukraine? March and April? Climate is changing. Even in eastern Ukraianian oblasts wich resently had continental climate and cold winters, now it become more moderate. When US intelligence warned us that Russian can attack in February when the ground will freeze, they probably assumpted old data. Whole February we had relatively warm weather, sometime with a sun a wind, sometime with snow/rains and around zero temperature. Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 45 minutes ago, Taranis said: Yes, i don't think they do this for being see as humans but more for preparing a bad trick (like in Budapest '45 with parlementaries) or simply for having more time and free hands to reorganize and prepare the next step While it would be an escalation on the level of stupidity and bald-faced nastiness of the Russian invasion, to the point of hoping that not even they could be that dense, it's disturbing that it's only hope. To attack such a widely-publicised evacuation convoy might even be enough of a trigger to get NATO involved. There's no way it could be denied or covered up, and no one outside Russia's bubble of mind control would believe any claims that it was UKR "provocation" or false-flag. Or maybe Putin's looking at another double-down. Let's hope not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fernando Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Climate is changing. Even in eastern Ukraianian oblasts wich resently had continental climate and cold winters, now it become more moderate. When US intelligence warned us that Russian can attack in February when the ground will freeze, they probably assumpted old data. Whole February we had relatively warm weather, sometime with a sun a wind, sometime with snow/rains and around zero temperature. Perfect weather for Rasputitsa, I guess 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) SP-howitzers 2S1 of 24th mech.brigade hit Russian column, but hard to locate, because of bad quality of video to read the name of settlement under the flag. It can be Russian border crossing, but can be also LNR-controlled Pervomaysk town approaches. Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Russian column on Kyiv direction. The date of filmilg is unknown. You can see the work of BAT-2 dozer&tracklayer engineer vehicle 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, kraze said: Last big major war with that kind of involvement that russian army took part in was WW2. Even during WW2 much of Soviet victory was dependent in half on non-stop human waves and in half on American support. And they also had Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting for them (which actually suffered the most casualties). They can do neither today - also because unlike WW2 there's no legit casus belli apart from "you go die in a foreign country so we can restore USSR" and that's weak sauce when you aren't winning easily. Can they enforce total mobilization to just throw bodies at us? Sure they can. Thing is the war isn't fought by the numbers for a long long time and throwing scared, broken human waves at ever angrier defenders may as well cause massive unrest back home. Problem is they have a lot more to throw at you than scared, broken human waves. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornGinger Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, kraze said: Pilots during WW2 didn't have much say in where their dumb and completely non-aerodynamic bomb will go... Now a pilot has to target a civilian building on purpose to hit it It was very much the same during WW2 as it is now. The flight officer was pointing with his stick on a map and told the bomber crew that they should bomb this or that city after which the bomber crew went into their plane. The one that was keeping an eye on the ground below waited until he saw what he was waiting for and when they were over the lit up city he told the boss that it was time to open the belly of the plane to let the iron rain fall down to kill. So it was just as much murder then as it is now. And the bomber crew wanted to give the "damned crauts" what they thought the "crauts" deserved. Edited March 5, 2022 by BornGinger 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Ceasefire not holding according to this. "Due to the fact that the Russian side does not adhere to the regime of silence and continued shelling of both Mariupol itself and its environs, for security reasons, the evacuation of the population is postponed" - Mariupol city council Edited March 5, 2022 by Sarjen Sited to include the message of the city council of Mariupol 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Russian jet shot down just now over Сhernihiv oblast. Cameraman exclaims "These ..... jumped!", but now we have only one pilot captured The writings Krasnoyartsev on his helmet - his surmame Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornGinger Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Haiduk said: The writings Krasnoyartsev on his helmet - his surmame Doesn't Krasnoyartsev mean "Someone from Krasnoyar (or possibly Krasnoyarsk)"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, BornGinger said: It was very much the same during WW2 as it is now. The flight officer was pointing with his stick on a map and told the bomber crew that they should bomb this or that city after which the bomber crew went into their plane. The one that was keeping an eye on the ground below waited until he saw what he was waiting for and when they were over the lit up city he told the boss that it was time to open the belly of the plane to let the iron rain fall down to kill. So it was just as much murder then as it is now. And the bomber crew wanted to give the "damned crauts" what they thought the "crauts" deserved. It's like that for russians today. No other country acts like that in a modern war. Nobody else levels cities anymore, murdering civilians on purpose, it's all about precise strikes on the military objects. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) As soon as the situation in the Ukraine is 'stable' and victory assured in the eyes of Putin, we will enter the next fase, an all out cyber war against the West. To the world this will be sold as justified revenge or simply denied by Putin. This is gonna hurt us big time in ways most of us can't imagine. The reason Putin is waiting is that in theory this can bring NATO into the war. Personally I very much doubt that, but Putin is clever enough not to take the risk. The Russian people will love it and it will boost their morale to see the West in chaos. And then? Probably more pressure on the Baltics by causing as much unrest as possible among the Russian minorities there (a bit like Hitler used the German minorities in Poland and Chechoslowakia). Other possibilities are attacks on Moldavia and Georgia and who knows what will come after that? One thing's for sure, it won't stop unless NATO shows it teeth. Red storm rising (again). Edited March 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, BornGinger said: Doesn't Krasnoyartsev mean "Someone from Krasnoyar (or possibly Krasnoyarsk)"? Yes. Many Russian and Ukrainian surnames are derived from the names of settlements or lands. Even our oligarch Kolomoiskyi - probably his ancestors were from Kolomyia town in western Ukraine Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornGinger Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, kraze said: No other country acts like that in a modern war. Nobody else levels cities anymore, murdering civilians on purpose, In some African countries for ecample they kill civilians on purpose and I don't know how often US attack drone controllers and helikopter crew killed civilians by "mistake" in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Russians aren't the only ones that attack residential areas on purpose. Edited March 5, 2022 by BornGinger 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) I wouldn't be surprised if we receive news soon that Ukraine has overrun the Russian convoy. But the whole thing also has a bit of "Barbarossa" feel to it. Reports of victories just keep rolling in, and the whole war seems decided already. Edited March 5, 2022 by Bulletpoint 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Russian missile hit Bila Tserkva town, Kyiv oblast residential area. In Zhytomyr Russian missiles hit local tank-repair factory administrative building, 2 injured Also yesterday in Zhytomyr, enemy missile destroyed the school Edited March 5, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 22 minutes ago, BornGinger said: In some African countries for ecample they kill civilians on purpose and I don't know how often US attack drone controllers and helikopter crew killed civilians by "mistake" in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Russians aren't the only ones that attack residential areas on purpose. Collateral damage and purposeful leveling of cities are two different things. A drone operator making a mistake or a "mistake" - and a whole russian airforce bombing appartment blocks can't be compared. Saying that US killed some civilians somewhere via a drone strike on a military target is the same as sending a whole squadron targeting civilian hospitals is ridiculous Also because that drone operator will most likely face a tribunal and russian pilots will just get medals. Edited March 5, 2022 by kraze 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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