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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 hours ago, danfrodo said:

why does putin need to take ukraine to stay in charge?  I'm not following that.  The biggest risk to his power he could possibly take was trying to take Ukraine.

Because empires either expand or crumble.

And in putin's case it was also about his ultimate history-making action - he just finished taking Belarus with zero resistance (Lukashenko is just his talking head at this point), many other ex-Soviet republics have been beaten into submission one way or the other, so it was time to cement the recreation of USSR by grabbing Ukraine too.

But, naturally, he forgot to ask Ukrainians.

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https://www.nu.nl/tech/6187269/tientallen-nederlandse-routers-gehackt-door-russische-militaire-hackgroep.html

The dutch military intelligence service, the MIVD,  discovered that dozens of routers from both private persons as companies have been hacked by the Russian unit 74455, also called Sandworm or BlackEnergy. This unit is part of the Russian military intelligence GRU. 

Worldwide thousands of devices have been hacked by the Russians. 

I advise everyone to make a backup of their Combat Mission...

 

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3 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because empires either expand or crumble.

And in putin's case it was also about his ultimate history-making action - he just finished taking Belarus with zero resistance (Lukashenko is just his talking head at this point), many other ex-Soviet republics have been beaten into submission one way or the other, so it was time to cement the recreation of USSR by grabbing Ukraine too.

But, naturally, he forgot to ask Ukrainians.

The annexation of Belarus does get little attention, but is for the West as worrying as the invasion of Ukraine.

Edited by Aragorn2002
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6 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Hmmm, like waiting for the two armoured divisions chockers with Abrams and Leopards that obviously NATO has already deployed to the Baltics while nobody was looking? Nah, I reckon those numbers were expressing a goal rather than a fact. 

 

I was thinking more from internal security; if the best and loyal troops are tied up in an invasion in Ukraine, some other units / entities might get ideas. Especially during economic meltdown.

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Remember the Cuban crisis? NATO was willing to go all the way then and the Soviets backed off. Eventually you must confront him whether you like it or not. Don't believe for one minute he will stop here, his goal is the restoration of the Soviet Union. The breakup he described as the biggest disaster ever. Don't wait till forces from Eastern Europe are once again part of his army. Who could blame them?

 

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5 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Remember the Cuban crisis? NATO was willing to go all the way then and the Soviets backed off. Eventually you must confront him whether you like it or not. Don't believe for one minute he will stop here, his goal is the restoration of the Soviet Union. The breakup he described as the biggest disaster ever. Don't wait till forces from Eastern Europe are once again part of his army. Who could blame them?

 

I don't think he has even plans for moving further west. This operation has been a huge reality check for him. I'm pretty sure he has already regretted it. 

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2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

This operation has been a huge reality check for him. I'm pretty sure he has already regretted it. 

Keep on dreaming, judge what he says and what he is doing. Like Hitler in his bunker far more dangerous in 1944 than he was in 1940.

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11 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't think he has even plans for moving further west. This operation has been a huge reality check for him. I'm pretty sure he has already regretted it. 

I really think that Putin has lost the connection to reality. He has himself isolated with selected staff members and cronies. No sane people are around him. We can only wish, that the guys in the lower ranks don't execute his last order.

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Ukraine is saying it has recaptured Vorzel today NW of Kiev. A few days ago the fighting was in Irpin. Yesterday there were photos after fighting in Bucha (and Hostomel?). Tpday, Vorzel. If you look at a map, that looks like the front line moving around 6km the right way -  away from Kiev. It seems like the UA is making some forward progess against what was the Russian main effort against Kiev.

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I consider him a lot more more intelligent and knowledgable than Hitler. I know this doesn't guarantee anything though. In case he has completely lost it we are doomed, I know Hitler would use nukes if he had them in 1944. That's why I'm against completely blacking out Russia out of this world. We depend on the people around him. If they feel we consider them as species to be extinguished,(they have fond memories from their western borders in 1941-45 and their 25 million dead) the propaganda will play them like clay, they will rally around the strongman like primitive creatures in danger and then this is our end as well. But people think this is some kind of "cancel" culture. You just can't cancel the largest country in the world with thousand of nukes like it is a child molestor. I hope behind the curtain, there is still an open line with sane people in Russia. 

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So the US spent 40+ years inadvertently validating RU doctrine and tactics at NTC. People then saw what they could do and projected it onto the actual RU while not taking into account the cultural, structural, and systemic differences between RUM & USM. ;)

 

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27 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Keep on dreaming, judge what he says and what he is doing. Like Hitler in his bunker far more dangerous in 1944 than he was in 1940.

Eh, that's not entirely true. From about late 1943/early 1944 the Allies canceled all their plans/attempts to assassinate Hitler, because they realised that his behaviour was damaging the German Army big time.

They (the Allied Supreme Command) knew that if Hitler died, and the German High Command would decide to keep on fighting without The Fuhrer's interference, the war would last longer.

In 1940 Hitler was way more dangerous for the world. 

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9 hours ago, dan/california said:

The only confirmation you need that Javelins work is that the Russians are not in Kyiv.

I think the reason they are not in Kyiv has more to do with a complete lack of proper planning, leadership, morale, and logistics than any single weapons system. Many of those tanks were completely intact when they were lost, because the Russians just left them in the field, and then they were blown up by infantry later.

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15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The secondary thread spinning off that talking about the possible implications of Ukrainian forces breaking Russian IFF codes due to these captures is fascinating.

Hope they can pull something like that off.

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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the reason they are not in Kyiv has more to do with a complete lack of proper planning, leadership, morale, and logistics than any single weapons system. Many of those tanks were completely intact when they were lost, because the Russians just left them in the field, and then they were blown up by infantry later.

agreed. 

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