How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

What part of "average Russians" are in army service now? Their army have many servicemen with combat experience, especially sergeants and officers of Western and Southern military districts. From Afganistan to Chechnia, Georgia, Donbas 2014, Syria. Yes, all they had a moods "we will take Kiev in 2-3 days" and "Nobody can't resists to Russian overhelming power", but this is not cancelling their "breathing of war" like while Russian society, which feed agressive military propaganda. 

I think, when Russia will lose this war, this "average Russians" will have "national shame feeling" deeply inside themselves. And this evil will await own time to grow up again if there will no "de-rushization"  (from the word "rushizm"). Russians want such leader lilke a Putin, they want "make Russia great again", but not in spheres of science, wellness etc. How said one of their politics "The greatness of nation is determined by capability to destroy a world". If Putin will gone, another similar will come. 

 

Re this conversation^

[kraze]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am pretty sure that is not true.  A quick search on the links between Afghanistan and the Fall of the USSR produces a lot of contrary evidence to that effect.

https://faculty.washington.edu/aseem/afganwar.pdf

https://scholarscompass.vcu.edu/uresposters/180/

As examples.

USSR fell not because russians changed, but because Afghanistan (and other events like Chernobyl) has shown how weak and extremely corrupt russian occupiers are to occupied nations.

And so this russian empire started gradually crumbling all over - from "GDR" to Russia itself.

However russians themselves didn't welcome the change as evidenced by them outright supporting a much more hardline Yeltsin coming to power instead of a "weak" Gorbachev.

Yeltsin was seen by russians as a guy that will save the empire - which he immediately proceeded to do by starting bloody wars in countries that opposed being occupied or forcing less resisting countries to accept russian military bases on their territory as a twisted "kill-switch" that would lead to eventual re-occupation and recreation of USSR (politically known as "CIS").

Yelstin didn't get to do it all due to age and health issues - so he transferred his power to putin, who simply continued rebuilding USSR.

Note how not a single time russians tried to oppose anything since 1991.

[Kraft]

Putins approval rating spikes during his manufactured conflicts.

I do not believe this was his main reasoning for starting this invasion but the majority of the population follows deeply engrained state narrative since decades and will see economic situation as a result of western aggression against russia and rally behind Putin. Of course there will be rising protests against the war but I doubt open opposition will resist long against government goons. I dont't blame them, consequences in Russia are almost life ruining.

Unless living situation becomes totally unbearable there will be no bottom up demand for change of government. I think chance of inner circle moving against Putin is higher but that is based entirely on wishful thinking.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

When Russian POWs tell "we didn't know nothing, we though this is maneuvers" - this is lie.

Here the captured document, "The register of personnel, who gave agreement to completing of special (combat) tasks on the territory of foreign states", military unit 01485 (34th motor-rifle brigade, Southern military district), 4th motor-rifle company. In the register you can see the list of personnel and their signs, dated by 21st Feb - for 3 days to invasion.

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Well, I most certainly do not agree.

I feel that your posts are becoming a little, well, too spiteful for my liking..

We in Ukraine didn't like the constitutional coup staged by Yanukovich in 2010, that completely made him an illegitimate usurper of power, and all the gradually growing violence against people that fought the coup that came afterwards, so him being in power ended just 3 years later.

Or we could just complain non-stop about how we are "just ordinary people that don't influence anything" with you yourself not being able to tell the difference between Ukraine and Russia as it was pre-2014.

Just sayin'

[Holien]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is fresh Kadyrov's fighters, arrived 2-3 days ago. Now they launced counter attack on our troops on the line Hostomel - Bucha - Irpin'. Reportedly there are 4 hours of heavy clashes. The artilley battery in our district shot about each 2-3 minutes, probably in this area

 

 

Trying to get a clear indication of the arm band, that they are wearing? Clearly a propaganda video shot.

Nothing like that shown for the Russian troops which is telling. 

A bit like the photo shoot of the UKR troops on the bridge for the media early on in the WAR...

[BornGinger]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is fresh Kadyrov's fighters, arrived 2-3 days ago. Now they launced counter attack on our troops on the line Hostomel - Bucha - Irpin'.

To see those Kadyrovci walk by like that in the video reminded me of the orcs walking around in Mordor in the film The return of the king. They're just as ugly and walk in a similar way.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

We in Ukraine didn't like the constitutional coup staged by Yanukovich in 2010, that completely made him an illegitimate usurper of power, and all the gradually growing violence against people that fought the coup that came afterwards, so him being in power ended just 3 years later.

Or we could just complain non-stop about how we are "just ordinary people that don't influence anything" with you yourself not being able to tell the difference between Ukraine and Russia as it was pre-2014.

Just sayin'

The fact that something happened somewhere, doesn't mean that if it doesn't happen somewhere else that nobody in 'somewhere else' tried/wanted to do something or is happy with the status quo. In fact with some simple googling you can find plenty of protests in Russia since '91.

Propaganda, fear, poverty, repression, etc.  

 

[Artkin]

How expensive has this war been per time spent fighting? I guess the Arab-Israeli wars were a taste of what was to come. Everything about this operation has been totally bizarre - to echo this thread. 

Considering both outcomes put russia in a worse place than it was before, I thought I was dreaming when I first read the news of this

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

I know plenty of Russians are against this war, I'd suspect most of them especially if they have info about what's going on. Let's hope from all this unnecessary destruction and loss of life, some things can change for the better. 

Are they against the war or are they against not being able to buy an iphone anymore?

That's the key difference.

[Baneman]

I saw in a post somewhere else where they called it "The Putin War".

Which seems better than calling it the "Russian-Ukrainian War" - it tells everyone who started it and who for.
Let that be his legacy.

[Lethaface]

Just now, kraze said:

Are they against the war or are they against not being able to buy an iphone anymore?

That's the key difference.

Does it have to be A or B?
How much do 'they' know about the war? How much has propaganda successfully implemented in their thinking? 

 

[BornGinger]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

When Russian POWs tell "we didn't know nothing, we though this is maneuvers" - this is lie.

Here the captured document, "The register of personnel, who gave agreement ... In the register you can see the list of personnel and their signs, dated by 21st Feb - for 3 days to invasion.

It's much likely that certain officers knew about this in good time. But that doesn't have to mean that ordinary privates were aware of what was about to happen.

As many Russian soldiers have surrendered to the defenders and some have abandoned their vehicles could mean that they understood a bit late what they had been sent to do and decided that "No way that I'm going to fight the ukrainians"

We'll find out when this is all over and Russian soldiers have been interviewed by Ukrainian officers and non-Russian journalists.

[chuckdyke]

I am impressed the Ukraines don't have problems with his Ozzie accent. 

 

 

 

[kraze]

Just now, Lethaface said:

Does it have to be A or B?
How much do 'they' know about the war? How much has propaganda successfully implemented in their thinking? 

 

Most russians I see all around "being against the war" weren't against the war for 8 years (it didn't start last week after all), but now they are "against the war" when they cannot travel abroad anymore and their food prices have grown 2 times in just a week (and keep rising fast).

Somehow "propaganda" doesn't prevent them from being "against the war" now, but prevented when everything was OK?

That "propaganda" seems to have stopped working with a snap of two fingers.

[akd]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

When Russian POWs tell "we didn't know nothing, we though this is maneuvers" - this is lie.

Here the captured document, "The register of personnel, who gave agreement to completing of special (combat) tasks on the territory of foreign states", military unit 01485 (34th motor-rifle brigade, Southern military district), 4th motor-rifle company. In the register you can see the list of personnel and their signs, dated by 21st Feb - for 3 days to invasion.

There are also reports from POWs of being forced to sign such documents at last moment.  Probably will require many more prisoners to build an accurate picture.

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by akd

[BeondTheGrave]

19 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Which seems better than calling it the "Russian-Ukrainian War" - it tells everyone who started it and who for.
Let that be his legacy.

Second Russo-Ukrainian War. Unless it ends soon. I kind of like the ring of the 'Twenty Days War.' 

Also scary news coming out of Russia today.

 

 

 

re the Julia Ioffe tweets, if you don't know her shes a Russian born journo who does Foreign Policy. In my opinion one of these reporters who analysis is mainly driven by 'Well when I lived in Moscow...." Which can be useful and shallow alternatingly. What I will say though is that from every time I've hear her speak, I get the sense shes very plugged in to the goings on of the Russian upper middle class. The well to-do Muscovites and St. Peters...bergischers? If her friends are panicked and running that means a lot of fear within Russian civil society right now. Imagine if every yuppie, finance bro, and hipster fled the streets of New York en mass for Canada. 

edit update to the conscription story from earlier:

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

It's much likely that certain officers knew about this in good time. But that doesn't have to mean that ordinary privates were aware of what was about to happen.

They all knew what was about to happen because they were all told to use the "I was told I was going on a training exercise" legend in case of a capture.

They literally repeat that word for word when captured meaning it's an order to lie in an organized way.

[akd]

More evidence that T-72B3Ms were sent into combat without ERA plates in the bags on their hull sides:

Note bag split open in middle, plastics spacers stacked inside, no ERA plates in between the spacers.

Edited March 3, 2022 by akd

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Most russians I see all around "being against the war" weren't against the war for 8 years (it didn't start last week after all), but now they are "against the war" when they cannot travel abroad anymore and their food prices have grown 2 times in just a week (and keep rising fast).

Somehow "propaganda" doesn't prevent them from being "against the war" now, but prevented when everything was OK?

That "propaganda" seems to have stopped working with a snap of two fingers.

Well, and it's all speculative, but perhaps the propaganda about poor Russians in Donbass worked for that scale of the conflict; 'only volunteer vacationers' etc.

But now they noticed whole world is shocked, they try find other news and realize full scale war is going on and that can't be explained from the 'donbass' thing? 

There are probably millions of other reasons and each individual is separate. Maybe now they feel more 'safe' to say something, because they have less to lose? 

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, akd said:

More evidence that T-72B3Ms were sent into combat without ERA plates in the bags on their hull sides:

Note bag split open in middle, plastics spacers stacked inside, no ERA plates in between the spacers.

What was the rush? After ukraine recieved its first shipments of javelin and nlaw it was already too late. 

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Artkin said:

What was the rush? After ukraine recieved its first shipments of javelin and nlaw it was already too late. 

Plenty of RPG around in Ukraine against which it would have been effective. It's not like the only weapons they have were from the west. I'd guess only a small fraction at start of war, although more and more is send.

[kraze]

Just now, Lethaface said:

Well, and it's all speculative, but perhaps the propaganda about poor Russians in Donbass worked for that scale of the conflict; 'only volunteer vacationers' etc.

But now they noticed whole world is shocked, they try find other news and realize full scale war is going on and that can't be explained from the 'donbass' thing? 

There are probably millions of other reasons and each individual is separate. Maybe now they feel more 'safe' to say something, because they have less to lose? 

"Liberal" russians too?

See aforementioned Sobchak escaping Russia.

Before the full scale war of 24.02 she fully supported the russian invasion, calling our government a "regime fighting its own people" and mentioning Crimea being a russian territory on multiple occasions.

And now she's running because an iron curtain is falling.

I have doubts that a well known "liberal" politician with a huge audience didn't know what was really going on and projected her far right position onto the masses because she listened to state propaganda.

[Artkin]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Plenty of RPG around in Ukraine against which it would have been effective. It's not like the only weapons they have were from the west. I'd guess only a small fraction at start of war, although more and more is send.

True but the era on the t72b3m will definitely stop a rpg 7vl

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Artkin said:

True but the era on the t72b3m will definitely stop a rpg 7vl

Not from the side into the hull, which is probably what the bags were meant to help with.