Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, The_Capt said: If Russia is going for Marshal Law, it is a concrete sign that there is significant instability on the domestic front. Putin may not be able to go all in if he needs those forces to hold onto power. There is also a point when the Russian military is going to say “nope”, this is not, NK Putin does not have an ideology to hold this together. No ideology means no real control on perception or agency beyond legal frameworks. Regular viewers of this thread will remember that more than once I predicted that Putin could be out by the end of this week. I'm sticking by that prediction, though it could just be that the end of this week is the first concrete sign of his end. Either way, I think his goose is cooked. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Whatever follows Putin, you can be assured that If Russia wants to be accepted back into the global community it is going to have to show something in return. Handing over people to the Hague will likely be one of them. And not just the ones responsible for this war, but the ones that are responsible for other crimes such as MH-17 and assassination plots in Western countries. With Putin out of power the incentives to suffer crushing economic sanctions on his regime's behalf is going to be greatly reduced. Of course this does depend heavily on who takes over. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I hope there is a plan to win the peace if by some miracle we get one. It would be worth ANY amount of money to turn Russia into a Functional country. I mean a plan for getting Russias troops out without most of them starving to death. I mean a plan for not just reversing the sanctions but actually reversing the sanctions damage. I mean we need to do everything that can be done. Of course it all depends on Putin "retiring", and a sane person taking over. And and a top level sweep out of the really bad people. But if we get a sane person we need to SUPPORT them. An enormous relief package for Ukraine obviously, EU, NATO, the whole deal. I suspect Belarus would beg Zelensky to be their President, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Yes, and we have at least $400b in looted Russian treasure that could be used to make that peace work better. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 The function of dictators is to make democratic countries look good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sequoia Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Well lets not count our chickens just yet. Things can still turn out to be extremely ugly. I suppose they already are, but you get my drift. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Sequoia said: Well lets not count our chickens just yet. Things can still turn out to be extremely ugly. I suppose they already are, but you get my drift. Let me wait until morning to get completely morbid again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Sequoia said: Well lets not count our chickens just yet. Things can still turn out to be extremely ugly. I suppose they already are, but you get my drift. There's so many different ways this could go, and most of them really bad. However, any clean removal of Putin from power (and there is a long history of this sort of "transition of power" in Russia) followed by a cease fire in Ukraine, then withdrawal, would be enough to get the ball rolling in a good direction. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said: This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left. And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter.... Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish). UAV targeting Russians' artillery seems a good counter-measure. So far, it seems the Russian air defense systems are useless against UAV raid. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zveroboy1 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This is another point of failure in the Russian plan. There seems to have been ZERO inclusion of recovery and repair services to be deployed behind the combat elements. So when something breaks down or gets stuck, it's effectively lost. Could be as simple as a bad spark plug or a flat tire, so it seems. Yes you know this must have been the main reason why we kept seeing all these abandoned vehicles. Was some of it caused by fleeing Russians? Sure definitely a few. Some of it caused by lack of fuel? Certainly. Some caused by ambushes too. But this has to be the main reason, several looked bogged down and for the vast majority of them, the recovery vehicles never came to tow them. It is like that footage where you saw several bmps i think it was inside a farm complex, they looked way too neatly parked to have been simply abandoned. It must have been a collection point for vehicles that were slightly damaged or had encountered a mechanical problem. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Putin bet it ALL on a short victorious war. Like so many before him, that isn't what he got. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 It's unfortunate that Navalny chose to return to Russia. Is there any information that he is still alive? ..Would be a miracle if so... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Vic4 said: It's unfortunate that Navalny chose to return to Russia. Is there any information that he is still alive? ..Would be a miracle if so... as of Feb 24th yes On 24 February, during his trial, Navalny condemned the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and asked the court to include his statement to the trial's protocol. He said that it would "lead to a huge number of victims, destroyed futures, and the continuation of this line of impoverishment of the citizens of Russia." He called the war a distraction to the population to "divert their attention from problems that exist inside the country 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Actually, he made an appeal for Russians to protest the war just today: https://www.dw.com/en/navalny-urges-russians-to-protest-war-wherever-you-are/a-60986515 I presume that if Putin goes the West will have a lot of interest in seeing Navalny released (given) and part of whatever new government forms (probable). Well, if things go reasonably well that is. As I said, there's so many different ways this could go. BTW, the uncertainty of what comes next is almost the same as wondering how things would go if Putin had a genuine heart attack or died from something like cancer. Dictatorships do not, by necessity, have clear means of transferring power. Oh, speaking of health stuff. A few pages ago there was some speculation if Putin might have some sort of physical ailment that has kept him in isolation rather than fear of COVID. It is possible. It is also possible that even vaccinated he couldn't risk getting seriously ill (still possible, especially if he had Sputnik and not a Western vaccine) because things are too unstable internally. People waiting in the wings might take an opportunity to act if Putin was, say, on a ventilator. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Thanks @sburke; I hope he makes it through. If Putin does fall it would be good for the people of Russia to have an inspiring voice and potential leader with some established integrity. Ah, thanks Steve, hadn't seen that! Edited March 3, 2022 by Vic4 Ninja'd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ts4EVER Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said: Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist? Freely admit I'm no expert but he's definitely managed to galvanize much of the population to aspire for democratic ideals. Imho, certainly better than anyone in Putin's immediate sphere that could just as easily or forcefully take control (i.e. Medvedev etc.) Edited March 3, 2022 by Vic4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Reporting in the NY Times says that trains leaving Russia and going into Finland are packed with Russian and non-Russian citizens looking to get out while they can. The non-Russians include long term residents of Russia who have citizenship elsewhere. This has nothing to do with the possible introduction of Marshal Law report, but rather simple observations and conclusions that lead to leaving now. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said: Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist? I'm not sure there is anybody in Russia who isn't a nationalist in that they believe in a strong Russia. The key thing is if the vision includes justice and the rule of law. From the little I know about Navalny's positions that is the core of his being. He is basically sitting in jail, after nearly getting assassinated more than once, because he was very effective in uncovering the massive levels of corruption in the Russian government. For example, documenting the super expensive dachas of the top levels of government, such as Medvedev. I think the West would work with Navalny without hesitation. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said: Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist? In February 2021, Amnesty International stripped Navalny of "prisoner of conscience" status, due to lobbying about videos and pro-nationalist statements he made in the past that allegedly constitute hate speech.[290][291][292][293] This designation was then reinstated in May 2021: the international organization stated that the withdrawal of the "prisoner of conscience" designation had been used as a pretext by the Government of the Russian Federation to further violate Navalny's human rights.[41] 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, sburke said: In February 2021, Amnesty International stripped Navalny of "prisoner of conscience" status, due to lobbying about videos and pro-nationalist statements he made in the past that allegedly constitute hate speech.[290][291][292][293] This designation was then reinstated in May 2021: the international organization stated that the withdrawal of the "prisoner of conscience" designation had been used as a pretext by the Government of the Russian Federation to further violate Navalny's human rights.[41] Can't let the best be the enemy of the good. Nalvany is NOT perfect, we aren't going to get perfect. But Nalvany has many acceptable positions, and he has some semblance of a power base that is not based in the military or the security forces. He would obviously have to make certain guarantees to get full western support. He is anti corruption and pro rule of law, that isn't nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Don't know if this is real but am wondering... Does UKR have any anti-ship capabilities? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Russia Evacuates Wounded Soldiers to Belarus as Its Casualties in Ukraine War Rise (msn.com) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said: Dunno about that, isn't Navalny a pretty right wing nationalist? He is. He is no different to putin, just wanted to take his throne. He fully supported an invasion of Georgia in 2008 and an annexation of Crimea in 2014 and said time and again that freeing Crimea is out of the question to him. The worst thing the West can do is support Russia once again after collapse like it did in the 90s. When Yeltsin waged bloody wars in Moldova, Georgia and Ichkeriya, full of warcrimes, leveled Grozny - the West was still feeding russians. Because the problem is not putin, the problem is russians themselves. There will always be 'putin' under any name. Only full and complete disintegration of Russia will make the world a safe place. There's 1 putin but 140 mln russians and they do nothing, like they did every other war - figure out why. Not learning the lesson that no dictator can exist without full support of his people will make the tragedy repeat again and again. Edited March 3, 2022 by kraze 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Sequoia said: Well lets not count our chickens just yet. Things can still turn out to be extremely ugly. I suppose they already are, but you get my drift. Indeed. Too much confirmation bias around at the moment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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