How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

40 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Head exploded in a good way ! 

Getting back to you and your exploding head 

According to the site linked below up until now they indeed lost 2 TOR-M2s. One we have discussed earlier, the other fell victim to a TB2 drone strike 

578 — Postimages (postimg.cc)

Here you can keep track of all losses so far:

Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

[DerKommissar]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

then there is this

$1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman (msn.com)

They should crowdfund a supplement to that -- I know, I'd pitch in. Where's Dog the Bounty Hunter when you need him?

Normally, I'd never encourage violence. But why don't they take him out like Kennedy or Bin Laden?

Surely a megalomaniacal war criminal in control of a nuclear arsenal is everyone's problem?

17 minutes ago, kraze said:

It took a single war lost in Afghanistan for a vastly more powerful russian empire to crumble - so there's chance there will never be any Russia anymore ever.

I'm with you on this one. I was thinking how WW1's human and economic cost precipitated the german-funded communist take-over. I am hoping the post-Putin reality is a brighter one, not a darker one, though.

Surely if they can place puppets in power, we can too?

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, akd said:

Fun club there. Note: all of Russia’s own security alliance, except Belarus, abstained.

This also isn't really going Putin's way.

China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy (msn.com)

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.

For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?

And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?

As I understand it, it's pretty much presumed at this point that Putin will eventually demand attacks on the West because he sees the sanctions effects (i.e. Google Pay and Apple Pay no longer working on the Moscow metro) as essentially the same thing. But...the US can respond in a profoundly big way and that's got to be giving the Kremlin pause. In addition, NATO has clearly stated that a cyber attack on any one NATO country triggers Article 5. So I'd expect some nibbling around the edges but no major swings for the fences yet.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good post.  I especially appreciate you mentioning the bribing aspect of Russia's victory.  It is similar to the turn around the Collation had in Iraq when hostilities were significantly reduced after making successful deals with tribal factions.  Not going to happen in Ukraine.

BTW, Putin's supposed attack dog, Kadyrov, come to power as a direct result of Russian bribes.  His father went from one of the most successful fighters against Russia to one of the most loyal enforcers of it.  Again, there will be nothing like that in Ukraine to help Putin win.

Stev

Or so we hope....

There will always be ruthless opportunists willing to sell their own mothers, but such wise guys need to feel they are protected, or at least have a way to get rich and end up in a condo in Miami....

Stukach (or the Ukrainian equivalent) or even Quisling official in occupied 'independent Slavic republics' isn't going to be a path to riches, ever. At least 'Transnistria' is relatively close to Europe proper and can be a destination for stolen Benzes, etc.

...It's more likely to end in 'necklacing' (tyre and gasoline) in the dead of night, or whatever traditional punishment is meted out there.

[Markus86]

Do we know if Ukraine did receive loitering munition? Wouldn't these systems significantly boost their defense capabilities? ("cheap", can be operated from a safe location, small radar-signature, ...)

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

This also isn't really going Putin's way.

China not emerging as lifeline for sanction-slammed Russian economy (msn.com)

So I did a piece a long way back on the thread on how Russia's Relationship as a component of its power is collapsing, this is what that looks like.

They managed to get Finland, Sweden and Switzerland to vote in favor...Jeopardy answer "how you know you are totally f#cked in a land war in Europe?"

[womble]

13 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Having the battlefield littered with destroyed or abandoned military equipment perhaps shouldn't be so surprising.

Sure. Burning wrecks, spiked artillery pieces. But long lines of vehicles abandoned without fuel, left undefended? Maybe we just aren't seeing the pickets that were left to defend the vehicles until they were refuelled, since we (understandably) don't see much citizen reportage of the sharp edge, but if civilian contractors can mosey up to functional equipment and hoik it onto a low loader, Russia's not controlling that particular space, for sure. And some of these assets are "high value", low density (AA, SPA) that you'd expect the Russians to want to hold onto.

[Markus86]

14 minutes ago, riptides said:

I thought I saw an announcement from Russia that cyberattacks against its satellites would be considered an act of war. I can imagine that there is a whole list of infrastructures that have been talked of that are considered crossing the line.

Anonymous reported that an affiliated hacker group did achieve this. 

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1498792639877074945?s=20&t=X8dwZ4cA1A9TxIIrUaAsZA

[Bulletpoint]

It seems to me the most brutal bombardments of civilians are taking place in Mariupol... this could be a sign that the Russian Army has been ordered to break through there as fast as possible at any cost.

This might be an indication that Russia is hoping for a fast land grab of key areas before negotiating for peace?

Basically saying "ok, we'll withdraw from the entire north of Ukraine if you'll let us keep the east, Crimea, and the connecting corrridor..."

Edited March 2, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Anonymous reported that an affiliated hacker group did achieve this. 

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1498792639877074945?s=20&t=X8dwZ4cA1A9TxIIrUaAsZA

ouch, now that's got to hurt.

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, womble said:

Sure. Burning wrecks, spiked artillery pieces. But long lines of vehicles abandoned without fuel, left undefended? Maybe we just aren't seeing the pickets that were left to defend the vehicles until they were refuelled, since we (understandably) don't see much citizen reportage of the sharp edge, but if civilian contractors can mosey up to functional equipment and hoik it onto a low loader, Russia's not controlling that particular space, for sure. And some of these assets are "high value", low density (AA, SPA) that you'd expect the Russians to want to hold onto.

Yes, I think this speaks volumes about the actual situation on the ground, propaganda or not.

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sink it! well offshore. One of many reasons why an amphibious invasion of Taiwan remains an extraordinarily risky undertaking.

 

I seem to recall that the Royal Marines in South Georgia managed to damage an Argentinian corvette with a Charlie-G and small arms fire back in 1982. Pretty sure a Javelin would be rather more effective.

Edited March 2, 2022 by cyrano01

[BeondTheGrave]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

In short, doubling down on kinetic sieges is akin to finding your arm stuck in a hornets nest and deciding to start smashing it with your face.  Sure you will break the hive and if given enough time you will kill a lot of hornets, but you sure as hell won't be going out dancing anytime soon.  And to make matters worse, you are guaranteed to have that on YouTube with a billion hits. 

What a great analogy LMAO. But I think youre analysis is right. In the West I think we have a hard time defining what 'victory' looks like. I also think Putin's MO ultimately has been to trade a crisis tomorrow for success today. I also think about how a short term victory, maybe some surrender negotiated at the point of a gun, impacts Russian strength. On the one hand you may not be concerned by any unit or piece of gear in the Russian Army. But the Army as a kind of beastial anaconda creature still proves it can smash the life out of its enemy. If youre Georgia, Finland, the Baltics states, how does that ultimately impact your outlook? The understanding that if you fight too hard or NATO doesn't ride quick enough to your rescue, Riga will turn into a crater? The one thing I think is missing from most of the western coverage is what happens if the government falls. How does that leave the Ukrainians, how does that leave the Russians? How much of the dunking people in this thread and elsewhere goes away if victory is still obtained? 

[BeondTheGrave]

Also a Russian target drone captured. Perhaps deployed to bait AD fire. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

It seems to me the most brutal bombardments of civilians are taking place in Mariupol... this could bea sign that the Russian Army has been ordered to break through there as fast as possible at any cost.

This might be a sign that Russia is hoping for a land grab of key areas before negotiating for peace?

Basically saying "ok, we'll withdraw from the entire north of Ukraine if you'll let us keep the east, Crimea, and the connecting corrridor..."

I don't think that would be enough for Putin.  After his big speech on the goals of his "special police action", a minor land grab isn't gonna cut it.  As someone who just retired, if I saw my retirement savings essentially just get flushed down the toilet by my country for a bit of land that I don't really care about.. well it wouldn't go well.  I also see little incentive for Ukraine to agree to terms yet.  While Russia does still hold the military advantage its performance so far has made folks less fearful.  There is blood in the water and folks are sensing Russian vulnerability.

[danfrodo]

So it sounds like russian hacker attacks on NATO infrastructure would be an excuse to intervene?  Please please please be that stupid, Putin. 

Right now, if NATO air forces intervened, those russian columns would look like the highway of death from kuwait 1991.  We don't need to send in ground forces, the russians are all sitting right out in the open.  We attack the AD assets then smash them.  Gawd Damn I am getting angrier by the day. 

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It seems to me the most brutal bombardments of civilians are taking place in Mariupol... this could bea sign that the Russian Army has been ordered to break through there as fast as possible at any cost.

This might be a sign that Russia is hoping for a land grab of key areas before negotiating for peace?

Basically saying "ok, we'll withdraw from the entire north of Ukraine if you'll let us keep the east, Crimea, and the connecting corrridor..."

Agree, I suspect as a fallback they'll try to keep the entire south bank of the Dnieper from Mariupol, the rest of the Donbas and maybe the sparsely settled oblast around Samy (which is stubbornly holding out, so far). Declare a 'cease fire' and dare the Ukrainians (or NATO) to try to take it back.

Putin would obviously love to gobble up the more densely populated Kharkov oblast as far as Kremenchug (i.e. all of East Ukraine) but that just seems too big a bite to me, given what we've seen of RA capabilities, even with a full national mobilisation. That part of Ukraine is well populated and would resist fiercely for years.

Finally, as noted earlier, Slavic Russia is a falling birthrate society: human wave attacks by hordes of muzhiks just ain't happening. So, they  'ethnically cleanse'. Then what? Resettle their new lands with... who exactly? Chechens? Yakuts?

Idiots!

Edited March 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BeondTheGrave]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

As someone who just retired, if I saw my retirement savings essentially just get flushed down the toilet by my country for a bit of land that I don't really care about.. well it wouldn't go well. 

This is doubly important because fixing the pension and retirement system is was a VITAL early initiative for Putin and one thats earned him lasting support from older Russians. Basically like the US politicians who promise to fix Social Security to buy the AARP crowd. But AFAIK most pension in Russia, like in the US, are drawn from a national market fund. If the market collapses either the Russian treasury will have to cover the gap, thus draining more of that precious gold reserve, or pensioners will go without checks. It totally undermines the reason why people support Putin in the first place. 

That one pressure point could come to be a big deal. Best thing Putin could do now economically is to stop the war. Even if none of the sanctions are removed, it would save him billions in war costs alone. 

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

In 1994 Ukraine agreed to get rid of their Soviet era nuclear units. 

Yes, with BOTH Russia and the USA signing an agreement to protect Ukraine from the aggression of a foreign invader. I assume that Russia feels since “Ukraine is historically and culturally part of Russia,” that they don’t qualify them as a “foreign invader.” Why the U.S. doesn’t “put boots on the ground” to satisfy it’s pledge is beyond me. I served the U.S. for more than thirty years in different capacities, and I must say that I’m disgusted that the U.S. Government has again shown that it cannot be trusted to keep it’s promises and commitments that it makes to defend others.

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, HUSKER2142 said:

An interesting answer was posted on the Combat Mission discord. 

 

Thank God you’re safe. I’m really happy to see you back!

[womble]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Russians funding far-right fascists in western nations -- no way!  But on the other hand, it's so beautiful: nazis and bolshies...

Dan, the Russkies got rid of their commie overlords a couple of decades gone... Nowadays their rulers effectively play the nationalistic card that many right-wing "organisations" in the West try and leverage.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

 

 

 

Quick Twitter round up. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So it sounds like russian hacker attacks on NATO infrastructure would be an excuse to intervene?  Please please please be that stupid, Putin. 

Right now, if NATO air forces intervened, those russian columns would look like the highway of death from kuwait 1991.  We don't need to send in ground forces, the russians are all sitting right out in the open.  We attack the AD assets then smash them.  Gawd Damn I am getting angrier by the day. 

I think right now one NATO overflight would send the whole army running, or surrendering in mass. Deploy one sensor fused munition, and they wouldn't stop running this side of the Urals.

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, riptides said:

Bosnia comes to mind. Will that change your stance?

No. Bosinia was a different situation and there wasn't the prospect of US/NATO air forces directly engaging Russian air power. Any sort of intervention would require US/NATO air power and the risk of engagement and escalation would be too great.

Any sort of humanitarian assistance that would have steps to prevent any sort of accidental or deliberate engagement is going to require Putin/Russia to agree to it, and I don't see that happening.

The US and West is firmly behind Ukraine under current conditions, but there are limits. Getting into a situation where direct confrontation and possible escalation to WW3 isn't something the public is willing to get behind.

If Kyev and other cities fall then we'll probably see years of insurgency supplied and supported by the West. The leaders have already been briefed of the possibility of a decade of continuing conflict and insurgency in Ukraine if the Russians prevail.

Edited March 2, 2022 by db_zero