How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Next party of captured - 22 tank crewmen of 1st tank regiment of 2nd Guard "Tamanskaya" motor-rifle division. The offcer is a deputy of armement of regiment commander. He said they entered through Myropillia border crossing point in Sumy oblast. The place of capturing is unknown

 

 

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, AlexUK said:

Given the apparent change of tactics of flattening cities, how can Ukraine 'win' this? Presumably Putin starts flattening, says Kyiv next if you don't surrender. 

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

So I think a lot of people (including some experts) are wrestling with this concept of what a Ukrainian victory might look like.  The simplest answer is "existence".  If, after all this Ukraine is still a functioning independent nation (even with redrawn borders) able to decide and chart its own fate, and recognized within the global community as such...they "win".

Further, as in most wars the Ukrainians win if Russian "lose" and the definition of that is widening by the min; however, the Russians also have the added spin of the reality that they can "win" in Ukraine and still "lose", this is an added complication that invading militaries all face. 

Russia could pound a half a dozen Ukrainian cities into dust, massive civilian casualties and eventually the Ukrainian government resolve may fracture, it is highly likely that the resolve of the Ukrainian people, at least in some circles will outlast the resolve of the government, that is a the seed of an insurgency.  Technically, if the Ukrainian government falls and an insurgency doesn't happen, it is still a Russian "loss".  The reason, that level of blunt use of force, human suffering and likely war crimes will ensure that the sanctions we are seeing will stick for a very long time, to the point that Russia will not be "Russia" in a few years. Further domestic support in Russia is very likely going to crack and internal security issues are almost guaranteed.

Looking at the strategic options space, Ukraine has many roads to victory left to it right now.  They can lose Kyiv and major cities in the east but can create governments in exile and deny western Ukraine, at least, with resistance for a generation. There are options and off-ramps for them all along the way from here to there. 

The Russian strategic options space is compressing quickly and painfully. Right now, the only Russian "win" is to keep the pressure up and win at the negotiation table. If they do it early and reasonably the west may lose interest in sanctions in a year or two.  They may get the Crimea (but man it cost them) and some concessions but these are very big maybes right now.  Russian credibility has been burned for a generation on the world stage, it is done, they do not get that back. 

All other options available to Russia are worse that that option.  They double down and do the medieval game, and they are a third world nation or satellite of China in less than a decade. Or the Russian population votes with violence, we are looking at destabilization of Russia in the short term and possibility of a Russian Civil war in the longer.  I think it much more likely that Putin is retired well before this happens. 

In short, doubling down on kinetic sieges is akin to finding your arm stuck in a hornets nest and deciding to start smashing it with your face.  Sure you will break the hive and if given enough time you will kill a lot of hornets, but you sure as hell won't be going out dancing anytime soon.  And to make matters worse, you are guaranteed to have that on YouTube with a billion hits. 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'd reveal what's concealed inside those sand piles, but that would be Teller....

On a different topic, and to cheer up our good @Kraze a bit, could we talk a little about long range sniping? Long range head shots being a extremely convincing and personal way of persuading unwanted c̶o̶u̶s̶i̶n̶s̶ neighbours to GTFH....

Plenty of hunting rifles (and marksmen) available in Ukraine, I take it? Surplus SVDs? Anything the West ought to be sending along in bulk in care packages?

IIRC several nations sent marksman rifles, I know that NL send 100 accuracy international with 30k rounds of ammo (supposedly the AWSM-F .338, also in CMSF2). IIRC other countries send larger numbers.

And indeed especially in large cities I'd expect snipers to be very effective against morale.
 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.

One other possibility is Putin somehow gets deposed. Not likely, but if it did happen, then what would the Russians next move be? Withdraw or negotiated partition?

I wouldn't rule it out.  NATO can't stand by and allow a humanitarian disaster.  Western citizens would force their gov'ts to act.  I doubt it will come to that.  The worse this gets, the more precarious Putin's position becomes.  This is supposed to be a "special police action".  Despite the censorship word is still leaking through in Russia.  

[Phantom Captain]

25 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left. 

And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter.... 

Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish). 

I don't think they have the ammunition to sustain something at this level.  And obviously resupply is not, uh, going so well...

Somewhere I read or heard they only have enough shells for 3 or 4 days and no way to produce more quickly.

[kraze]

56 minutes ago, __Yossarian0815[jby] said:

During the yugoslav wars in the 90s the serbs/croats/bosnians tried to explain to anybody who was listening that they they spoke totally different languages and had irreconcilable cultural differences. 2 Generations later not so much.

Read wikipedia on slavic languages and how they are related.

 

Yugoslavia was an artificial country, with different cultures and ethnicities, held together by force and terror - literally like Russia always was.

Also russian soldiers were doing genocide together with serbs in there so a bad bad bad example, don't do it again.

Edited March 2, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

I don't think they have the ammunition to sustain something at this level.  And obviously resupply is not, uh, going so well...

Somewhere I read or heard they only have enough shells for 3 or 4 days and no way to produce more quickly.

and the other thing, this isn't Chechnya.  Those units shelling Kiev or other cities won't do so with impunity.  With all that material the west is promising and some 60,000 pissed off Ukrainian ex pats returning. well I really think your average Russian soldier is looking longingly back towards the border   Putin's censorship doesn't work so well when an NLAW is hitting your track.

 

then there is this

$1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman (msn.com)

Edited March 2, 2022 by sburke

[kraze]

1 hour ago, AlexUK said:

Peace agreement includes extended Donbas territory, land corridor to Crimea, and commitment to neutrality.

I guess you haven't been following the events of the past 8 years, let alone a few hundreds of years.

Russians couldn't care less about Donbass or Crimea or "neutrality".

They are a fascist empire from 20th century and, just like any empire, to merely exist they need to permanently expand. If they won't expand - they would disintegrate.

It took a single war lost in Afghanistan for a vastly more powerful russian empire to crumble - so there's chance there will never be any Russia anymore ever.

Edited March 2, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

The Russian Parliament past some absurd act/law that banned reporting about Ukraine. They couldn't do a better job of demonstrating they had a disaster in progress if the only thing on the TV was a Ukrainian news feed.

14 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.

One other possibility is Putin somehow gets deposed. Not likely, but if it did happen, then what would the Russians next move be? Withdraw or negotiated partition?

 

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

I wouldn't rule it out.  NATO can't stand by and allow a humanitarian disaster.  Western citizens would force their gov'ts to act.  I doubt it will come to that.  The worse this gets, the more precarious Putin's position becomes.  This is supposed to be a "special police action".  Despite the censorship word is still leaking through in Russia.  

 

[akd]

Fun club there. Note: all of Russia’s own security alliance, except Belarus, abstained.

[Aragorn2002]

As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.

For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?

And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?

[Lethaface]

43 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This was the strategy used in Grozny, and it is the strategy that Putin is obviously switched to now. First is the shock and awe phase, remind citizens how costly its going to be in terms of innocent deaths. Once the army is ready they will roll in behind huge artillery bombardments and turn things in to a Berlin or Stalingrad style siege. Level a block in a hurricane bombardment, push the infantry forward to secure it. Bring down artillery to stave off a counterattack. Repeat as necessary. By the time the Russians are done there will be nothing left. 

And to be honest this isn't something that the Ukrainians can solve with Molotovs and NLAWs. They need dedicated manpower, smart flexible and asymmetric planning, and some heavy arty of their own wont hurt. The way to shortcut this plan IMO is to get in amongst the artillery and either wreck the guns or force them to constantly reposition. But if the Russian concentrate their arty, they can concentrate AD, concentrate CAP coverage, concentrate for a security perimeter.... 

Now if Ukraine had a few of those F-35s that supposedly could penetrate a contested air space, maybe some HARMs, it would be different. But as long as Russia can keep the conflict asymmetric they have an advantage (in the short term, this isn't a strategy to govern its a strategy to take and punish). 

Not that I think the outlook of what's to come is great, but it's not like the Ukrainians have been sitting idle. They also had time to prepare for exactly this. They can make the streetfighting very bloody, counter battery fire, dronestrikes, rear actions against supply, etc.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

I guess you haven't been following the events of the past 8 years, let alone a few hundreds of years.

Russians couldn't care less about Donbass or Crimea or "neutrality".

They are a fascist empire from 20th century and, just like any empire, to merely exist they need to permanently expand. If they won't expand - they would disintegrate.

It took a single war lost in Afghanistan for a vastly more powerful russian empire to crumble - so there's chance there will never be any Russia anymore ever.

For sure.  AlexUK's point is this is what Putin might try to push for in negotiations to end the shelling of Ukrainian cities.  Putin only cares about these things because getting them hurts Ukraine and makes Russia look stronger.

Of course, if Putin has a "heart attack" it won't really matter.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

As we CMers know, city fights are won block by block and district by district, generally at terrible cost.

Grozny had a pre-siege population of around 220,000, and presumably a greater density relative to space (smaller urban footprint). This number fell below 50k in the siege. A major challenge for the RA, but manageable with elite forces alone.

1.  Now compare Ukraine:

Kharkov: 1.5 million

Kyiv: 3 million

...And owing to the higher industrialization and living patterns of Ukrainians (smaller families) vs. Chechens, we should also expect a far bigger footprint to conquer and 'secure' now.

2. Also, in clannish Chechnya, there was a huge amount of bribery to bring clans over to the Russian side, or at least to stand aside. Ukrainians won't be bought.

3. Add to this the relative absence -- so far -- of a sympathetic local population willing to assist the occupiers in identifying partisans.

No doubt some residents are 'on the fence' waiting to side with the winners, but it would take a decisive demonstration of RA superiority (including materiel superiority!) to bring them over to active Quisling status (vs. fear of retribution by their neighbours).

Edited March 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[riptides]

28 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Former NATO commander Wesley Clark-an American general wrote an opinion piece today saying if things continue and get really bad NATO will have to respond even if it means risking a confrontation with Russia. I disagree 100%. Any US or NATO direct involvement is off the table.

...

Bosnia comes to mind. Will that change your stance?

[White2Golf]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.

For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?

And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?

It was mentioned this doing this could trigger Article 5.  Or maybe, like everything else the past week the Russians simply are not as good at stuff as we thought?

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Fun club there. Note: all of Russia’s own security alliance, except Belarus, abstained.

As dysfunctional and ineffectual as the UN might be, these sorts of declarations matter because it gives individual member states legal justification to take certain actions.  Not that any of this matters to Putin as he doesn't care, but it does make it clear that he's almost on his own and that is not something he's used to.

Steve

[riptides]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.

For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?

And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?

I thought I saw an announcement from Russia that cyberattacks against its satellites would be considered an act of war. I can imagine that there is a whole list of infrastructures that have been talked of that are considered crossing the line.

[Haiduk]

Some captured vehicles around Mykolaiv for today

Some news form other palces - UKR forces yesterday took back Tokmak town in Zaporizhzhia oblast, but today new wawe of enemy attack and the city encircled again. 

Ukrainian army hit enemy brigade's command point in Dytiatky village Kyiv oblast (can't confim, just a news)

Russians hold most part of Kherson city, but sometime there are sporadic clashes. Local mayor by unknown reason didn't arm city territorial defense unit and that guys tryed to ambush enemy vehicles just with Molotovs, but probably they were betrayed and almost all were shot out in the park, when Russians approached. At least 8 KIA. 

Russians destroyed two railroad bridges - one near Voznesensk, Odesa oblast, other in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia oblast 

Energodar - civilans have been blocking Russian column on the road to the town, where largest in EU nuclear plant is located. Two days ago Russian tried to enter the city, but citizens didn't allow them to pass.  

 

Unarmed civilians in occupied Melitopol are protesting agaist Russians and trying to push the out

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

How would NATO realistically respond if Putin made a direct threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

China at this point is overtly being sympathetic to everyone but quietly would prefer this were over with a cleanish Russian victory. One tactical nuke and I think China backs away into armed neutrality toward Putin.

[__Yossarian0815[jby]]

18 minutes ago, kraze said:

Yugoslavia was an artificial country, with different cultures and ethnicities, held together by force and terror - literally like Russia always was.

Also russian soldiers were doing genocide together with serbs in there so a bad bad bad example, don't do it again.

All countries are artificial. The belief in a natural nation state of a pure people is the kind of thing Putin believes in.

If you want to be on the winning side of history stick with the artificial agglomerates (Unites States of..., Eur...Union)

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

As we CMers know, city fights are won block by block and district by district.

Grozny had a pre-siege population of around 220,000, and presumably a greater density relative to space (smaller urban footprint). This number fell below 50k in the siege. A major challenge for the RA, but manageable with elite forces alone.

1.  Now compare Ukraine:

Kharkov: 1.5 million

Kyiv: 3 million

...And owing to the higher industrialization and living patterns of Ukrainians (smaller families) vs. Chechens, we should also expect a far bigger footprint to conquer and 'secure' now.

2. Also, in clannish Chechnya, there was a huge amount of bribery to bring clans over to the Russian side, or at least to stand aside. Ukrainians won't be bought.

3. Add to this the relative absence -- so far -- of a sympathetic local population willing to assist the occupiers in identifying partisans.

No doubt some residents are 'on the fence' waiting to side with the winners, but it would take a decisive demonstration of RA superiority (including materiel superiority!) to bring them over to active Quisling status (vs. fear of retribution by their neighbours).

Good post.  I especially appreciate you mentioning the bribing aspect of Russia's victory.  It is similar to the turn around the Collation had in Iraq when hostilities were significantly reduced after making successful deals with tribal factions.  Not going to happen in Ukraine.

BTW, Putin's supposed attack dog, Kadyrov, come to power as a direct result of Russian bribes.  His father went from one of the most successful fighters against Russia to one of the most loyal enforcers of it.  Again, there will be nothing like that in Ukraine to help Putin win.

Steve

[Pelican Pal]

Does anyone know of a map that is tracking location of equipment losses?

It looks like Russian spearheads are making progress but those spearheads seem relatively isolated. Essentially the Russians have a hard edge where they do control ground but the areas behind that edge is only being painted red on the map and not in actuality. But this is just what I've picked up anecdotally and having losses mapped out would help to confirm it.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another thing that Russia has to worry about... civilian roadblocks.  We've seen some smaller ones already, but this one is massive in scale.  This is a city that is very much threatened from being cut off from the rest of Ukraine.

 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

As far as i know this hasn't been mentioned before. Paranoid as I am, I expect the Russians to launch a wave of cyberattacks against the West any day now. I even took the precaution of taking some extra cash, in order to be able to pay the groceries when the bank systems go down.

For those of you that know about these things. Why hasn't this happened yet? I mean some time ago they could even make the whole system of Rotterdam Harbor crash, so what's holding/stopping them?

And equally important, would such a wave of cyberattacks be seen as an act of war against NATO?

I am starting to think we may have over estimated the Russian cyber capability.  If they have got dark farms of hackers ready to collapse the western economic system, why can't they even turn off Twitter in the Ukraine?  Right now the social media feeds and internal communication networks in Ukraine are doing as much damage to Russia as those Javelins. 

If anything the cyber war looks like it is going the other way.