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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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14 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

Rob has tattoos os Ex US army vet served in tours of Afghanistan and Iraqi

His buddy served 15 years on multiple combat tours

Rob got an Internet following for lots of other things 

The United States Army was where Rob found his home as an 11 Bravo infantry man at the age of 19. Rob would serve the military for over 6 years, initially assigned to 1st and 30th as an infantryman. Rob was deployed to Kirkuk, Iraq, before deciding that being a sniper was his calling -- something that fit with Rob’s love of a challenge but didn’t fit with his “always moving” personality. Rob translated his physical movement for eye movement, and would go on to be a master sniper and lead a team through countless missions. The physical toll of the Army ultimately won out and Rob was medically discharged in 2014, three years after marrying his wife Sarah. 

 

If its not your thing that's fine but he's given good accurate updates by obviously some intell people  and I appreciate listening to his breakdowns as infantry men

What he says matches other updates from other pages but they take along time to be shown

Ok, hey maybe they have got some people on staff but a few tours in the sand makes them experts at shooting people and maybe not so much on the invasion of an entire country.  Now if they were on the Corp staff back in 03 or SAMS grads with some NATO time, ok.  

Based on their resumes this is akin to getting municipal planning advice from two fire fighters.  Sure they are on the payroll but way out of their lane.

Live and let live but I would be cautious and weigh their opinions accordingly.

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Totally 

All information coming out I take with lots of salt 

But they have generally been consistent

I appreciate they are not ex intell 

Other sites are ex intelligence guys so it's good to have some basic infantry guys giving there comments 

They have done combat tours so I give them respect

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58 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I wouldn´t worry too much, if that said tank division will show the same performance quality as the 4th Guards Tank Division we already know about.

 

 

I wasn't reacting to it that way.  I just think anyone who still thinks that column is a tank division is out of touch both with what we do know about that column and how the Russians organizationally are broken down.

Edited by sburke
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The vice chair of the Senate intel committee-Marco Rubio on Twitter said what looks like the largest airborne assault of the war so far was launched against Kharkiv.

An unverified report mentions it’s likely expected to fall.

If this plays out does it shift momentum to the Russians?

 

 

 

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Belarus getting hit w sanctions, including some senior military commanders.  A populace that was already trying to overthrow their leader is now going to have their economy wrecked.  I am not a gambler but I'd be "the under" on how long he can hold out after this.

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31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Belarus getting hit w sanctions, including some senior military commanders.  A populace that was already trying to overthrow their leader is now going to have their economy wrecked.  I am not a gambler but I'd be "the under" on how long he can hold out after this.

We shall see, but if regular army Belarusian conscripts start coming home in zinc, all bets are off.

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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK, my wife is crushing on Zelensky, so I get to have one too....

 

Is she a reporter? The Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, is quite a looker and got tough on Putin. They are sending arms now I read. You are distracting me @LongLeftFlank! 😆

Actually trying to keep up with this thread is distraction enough. :) 

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4 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

To put this back into CMBS context for a minute...  I have to say I am laughing now as how so many fanboys wanted to scream American bias at you and complained forever ad nauseum on how underpowered Russia was as represented, how great their armor is, how modern and top notch their army is, how they would be so capable standing up against NATO forces... Fix or do somefink! 

To be fair... most of the stuff we're seeing is about tactics and not the equipment itself.  Someone watching a video of a guy repeatedly whacking his thumb with a hammer doesn't mean the hammer is overrated.

4 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

Well....it seems they are vastly over-represented in the game now eh? CM made me think the Russians were going to be way more powerful than they are showing themselves to be.  I'm glad they aren't and I guess this is the very definition of "paper-tiger" maybe "pixel tiger" in our case.  CM also made me think the Ukrainians would hold out much longer than the experts gave them credit for. I'm glad this has been the case. 

Here's the thing about Combat Mission that makes it so unique.  Our goal was to make a hyper realistic simulator that was also fun to play as a game.  Most of what is out there was designed to be a game of varying degrees of realism without diving deep enough to really be considered a simulator.

This is not only important for us to claim CM is very realistic, it is also important for us (i.e. Battlefront folks) to learn what the modern battlefield might be like.  With that in our minds we can better question some of the assumptions that others made.  Case in point...

During the immediate fallout of the first Russian invasion of Ukraine there was a reaction from NATO. They understood what was coming even if their political masters did not.  So they started getting ready for things to get worse with Russia. 

There was a big wargame done on what might happen if Russia invaded the Baltics.  The conclusion was that even with significant NATO reinforcements that they'd be wiped out.  I called BS on that and engaged some good people in debate.  What was the cornerstone of my argument?  Javelin.  And where did I come to that conclusion?  Combat Mission.

So now here we are with an actual Russian conventional land attack.  Would it have gone this horribly in the Baltics?  Probably not because the Russians would have started with the premise that NATO wouldn't surrender in the first day.  But I don't think the outcome would be much different.  Russian forces would have gotten themselves very quickly confused and shredded by even light NATO forces with minimal support.  At the time I was being called overly optimistic, now I don't think I'd be called that.

4 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

I feel like I could almost do a better job with one of these Task Groups than the actual Russian commanders are doing.

It seems even a nOoB CM player would handle the Russian forces better than we've seen in this war in most places most of the time.  I'm sure you'd make Brigadier General your first week on the battlefield, especially if you could figure out how to keep your forces fueled and fed ;)

Steve

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34 minutes ago, akd said:

We shall see, but if regular army Belarusian conscripts start coming home in zinc, all bets are off.

Might not even take that much.

Putin gets away with a lot because his people fondly remember the great things he did for them, some of them genuinely impressive (stabilizing the economy after the 1990s free fall being a big one).  They cling to a lot of that these days.

It seems one of the only things that Belorussians liked about Lukashenko in recent years is that he kept Russia from ruling them as 2nd class citizens and using their territory as an expendable buffer with NATO.  Now that is gone and then some.

I think the bigger question is if Lukashenko is going to collapse first, upending what is a vital base for Russian forces, or if Putin goes and Lukashenko goes soon after.  And maybe some other Russian supported tyrants in former Soviet space.

Cripes, it could be a kinda Arab Spring.

Steve

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Regarding the Russian army being perceived as a paper tiger.

It appears more obvious every day that the Russian army was overrated and people underestimated the extent of the cronyism, corruption and its low level of readiness (among other things).

And I don't want to downplay the difficulties the Russians are encountering here, some of them are looking quite serious even potentially crippling and the litmus test of the war is exposing weaknesses in the Russian army that were not necessarily obvious before. But I feel it is becoming maybe too much of a meme and an hyperbole at times.

This is of course fuelled by a justified indignation and understandable but reducing this war to a meme instead of looking at it in a dispassionate clear-headed way is a pitfall that might make it hard to assess the situation and the outcome properly.

I'd like to point out for the record that I think Putin made a big mistake here, that I don't see how he can win strategically and that I root for the Ukrainians. If we could get rid of another dictator and stop this resurgence of authoritarian regimes across the world, I for one would be delighted.

One thing is clear from this though : the Russians are losing the information warfare side of the conflict quite badly. And this is fairly surprising to me. Not so much the heart-warming global public outcry and backlash Putin is facing, but the quasi absence of a Russian response to steer the narrative. Or if there is one it is inaudible.

But what I find a lot less surprising personally is how chaotic and messy this war is and how many mistakes we see from the Russians.

I wonder if this prevalent attitude and perception are not caused by two factors:  aren't people using the American military as a yardstick and haven't they forgotten what a peer or near-peer conflict looks like?

We, as wargamers, should know that modern warfare is brutal, messy, lots of things go wrong etc. This isn't the war on terror. Having the battlefield littered with destroyed or abandoned military equipment perhaps shouldn't be so surprising.

Finally the Russians were never going to measure up to the level of proficiency of the US army. They were never going to conduct a clean, bloodless precision war. Maybe Putin deluded himself thinking it was possible. But this has never been the Russian way. Brute force rather than finesse is more in line with the traditional Russian approach. And I aware that the Soviets were able to carry out maskirovka and elaborate offensives in the past but what would be unacceptable losses for a western military is probably just "you don't make an omelette without breaking eggs" for the Russian mindset.

Cliff Notes :

The Russian army was overrated but this is a near-peer conflict.

 

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11 minutes ago, Zveroboy1 said:

One thing is clear from this though : the Russians are losing the information warfare side of the conflict quite badly. And this is fairly surprising to me. Not so much the heart-warming global public outcry and backlash Putin is facing, but the quasi absence of a Russian response to steer the narrative. Or if there is one it is inaudible.

Here is the statement of the Russian embassy in Canada (Canada has a very large Ukrainian diaspora population):

 

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