How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_ca197c5149c1d1b6ba767d5924a95ef4

 

The "classified" given to congress seems to have been fairly grim, which is worrisome since the US intel has been good so far. Or at least it was up until the minute the shooting started. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

BeondTheGrave, I think your professors missed something.  Or I missed reading something you wrote...

Russia uses the huge foreign reserve fund to cushion economic fluctuations, as it did in 2014 double hit from sanctions and oil price drop.  Inflation remains less than it would otherwise be, the currency doesn't go as low as it probably would.  Even with this, 2014 was really tough and stressed out the fund.

The reserve fund is in total something like $600b, some of which is in gold or the gold is separate (fuzzy on that).  The investments are in foreign currencies and are generally viewed as safe because there's hardly any history of such assets being frozen or worse.  Iran is one that definitely suffered from frozen assets.

In 2014 nobody froze these assets, this time pretty much everybody but the Chinese have.  It is estimated that means only $200b of the $600b are available to cushion the economic pain.

Freezing the assets also removes the possibility of a retaliatory strike by Russia to sell of X currency and flood the market, thus driving down the value of the targeted currency. 

So in one stroke of a keyboard in a half dozen countries Russia was denied a critical tool to both keep its economy from suffering and also a weapon to use/threaten others with.

And since it was done so quickly and so widespread by multiple currency holders at the same time, Russia had no ability to counter the move.  It's done.  Over and done.  Nothing Russia can do about it directly.

Then there is the whole problem of making investing in Russian sovereign debt illegal.  Not that anybody is interested in buying any at this point as for sure as nobody buys when something is in massive decline.  So right now not a big deal, but when things stabilize it could be.

And then there's the private sector.  Why did Gazprom and Rosneft partner with companies like Shell, BP, etc.?  Because they had expertise and infrastructure that those companies do not have.  In particular exploration and exploitation technologies.  Those are now unavailable to them.  And with the investments divested, threatening to hurt Western companies directly through lower corporate earnings is moot.

Now, I'm not saying that this means Russia will collapse.  I'm just pointing out that this time Russia is on a different playing field than the last time.  So far the economic indicators seem to reflect that the financial class sees this as both significant and bad for Russia.

Steve

[melm]

I didn't know Steve got an economics degree.

[melm]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-28-22/h_ca197c5149c1d1b6ba767d5924a95ef4

 

The "classified" given to congress seems to have been fairly grim, which is worrisome since the US intel has been good so far. Or at least it was up until the minute the shooting started. 

 

Definitely not that optimistic. The info may predict UKR will lose some territory(not all at least) and no ability to drive all the Russians to their home.

[Battlefront.com]

Nah, just been living long enough to get the basic principles of how modern economies work.  Although I did (almost) make it through the definitive history of the 1920s/1930s currency collapse.  The reviewers were correct... one of the most thorough, well documented, and comprehensive work about how it all happened.  They also mentioned it was about as exciting a read as pounding a nail into your forehead is.  Or something like that

Steve

[borg]

My god . Administration building in Kherson… just saw OSINT. I think im

going to take a break . I’m not sure I can see/take this .

 

surely , this is AGAINST law/legal what ever they say in military conditions . Not sure - is there a threshold how long civvies can continue being targeted ? As in . Oh a hit , oh another hit , ohh another building hit .. i mean. How long ? 
 

then again …it is war . And war is hell. 
sorry for my rant guys 

Edited March 1, 2022 by borg

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, borg said:

My god . Administration building in Kherson… just saw OSINT. I think im

going to take a break . I’m not sure I can see/take this .

 

surely , this is AGAINST law/legal what ever they say in military conditions . Not sure - is there a threshold how long civvies can continue being targeted ? As in . Oh a hit , oh another hit , ohh another building hit .. i mean. How long ? 

There is no law that Putin recognizes. That is why he has to go, and why we need a massive air/cruise misslie strike in the Russian forces in Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

We had a long seminar on the Ukraine crisis at my Uni today, if they post a video I'll upload it. (not sure, there were tech problems) Mostly it was everything a lot of you guys already know, and to a room of undergraduates. The crowd skewed older, 20-22, but much of the discussion varied from basic questions about historical context to ideologically driven questions about how to 'make the world a better place.' Most of the students had their hearts in the right place and brought some interesting questions. 

Some interesting points that came up: Our resident expert on political economy had a lot to say about sanctions and Russia's future. He suggested that in the short term the Russian economy was heavily insulated from economic shocks. Its war chest was large and sanctions, while bold in concept, were not as extensive as the west makes them out to be. My previous predictions of doom (I believe I compared the Russian economy to Chernobyl) may have been a bit..... enthusiastic. He suggested that between access to Chinese markets, German reluctance to pull the plug on gas, and the watering down of SWIFT sanctions, the situation today isn't as bad as first appears. On SWIFT specifically the prof said that banking sanctions are all or nothing, if even one bank is excluded it will become the breathing tube for the rest of the economy. So long as banks in Russia are willing to play ball, and the west doesn't plug the tube, a single bank can float much of the rest of the system. More troubling in the long run, he suggested that this sanctions regime has probably destroyed the Russian economy for a generation, and a bad generation it will be. He pointed out, correctly, that Russian manufacturing lags behind the rest of Europe. This is because the ruble is artificially overvalued thanks to oil. More people buy oil, more people want rubles, more people want rubles, ruble price goes up. But Russian industry isn't up to the value of the ruble and that blocks foreign investment. What little foreign investment there has just died. China was building a new Jetliner with Russian companies. That will almost certainly die thanks to western sanctions. So will most east-west trade deals with Russian businesses. Companies will still want to make one of deals with Russia (we'll buy x mil bbls of oil at y price) but nobody will make long term deals with a country that is so economically self destructive all the time. The situation that Russia is facing is the same as Venezuela in a way. Tons of economic potential but nobody is willing to make a deal or help them out because of poor policy. The only exception is in Oil (Russia has more mineral wealth of course, but its biggest and most valuable is oil). Several problems with Russian oil. First sanctions will crash the price of Russian oil. Bad but not catastrophic. Second and more catastrophic, Russian oil is extremely expensive per bbl to pump. It and Canadian oil sands (said the professor) are the most expensive to pump in the world. Much of this is down to geography. Russian oil is remote, its really far from its customers, and its in some pretty bad terrain above the Arctic circle. Saudi Oil, on the other hand, is the cheapest /bbl. Third Russia will never pump more oil than it does today, in a broad sense. That is, the world is moving away from petroleum energy just like it did with coal and wood and dung. The single greatest 'sanction' the EU could impose is a law banning gas heating in new construction. And theyd be glad to do it, because its green. Between green energy and green cars and green cities, the world is going to use less and less oil. Russia will be the first to suffer. 

Both the military historian and the Russian historian were pretty set that Ukraine would not last much longer without a fundamental revision in the conflict. The Russian historian was pretty convinced that Putin would not lose power to a popular movement in the short term, though he did note that the last two times regime change came to Russia it was after a failed war. He felt though that this conflict, while embarrassing, was not so bloody or onerous as World War One. More of a risk was the oligarch and military classes. They have less tolerance for failure and economic chaos. Putin, the thought, is more likely to drink polonium tea than he is to be gunned down in a dacha basement. Both also agreed that if the fundamental situation did not change, the Russian bear would eventually squeeze the life out of Ukraine. Though one student did ask a question that went mostly unanswered about parallels to Iraq. Hard to convey exactly what was said, I think that many of you would agree with most of the facts they laid out but some would definitely challenge the tone. Shame @The_Capt wasn't there to ask a more stark question about the possibility of an insurgency. 

RE social media the group also pointed out something everyone should remember, lot of bad videos out there, lot of partial information. Everything we see here in this thread, on Reddit, on Twitter is very biased. Even if the person who filmed it didn't think so, there are strong perspective biases that were getting here. We maybe see 1% of whats really going on. 1% of 1%. Just because I havn't seen T-90s doesn't mean they arnt out there (plsplspls post every T-90 or BMP-3 vid you see, and if you see a wrecked T-14, put that pic in a mail and send it to me!) Just because we see a pattern evolving doesn't mean our analysis is based on good info. I dont mean to poo-poo everything were doing here or what were posting, I just want to throw in a little cold water and put things into perspective. It was a point, to be honest, that hit me close to home. 

We also had a few Ukrainian students come and say a little bit. A former Yugoslavian professor also reminded the room that its all abstract theory and ideology when youre in a classroom in rural Ohio. Its a lot different when its your home, your family, your life on the line. That was a bit of cold water I think. I bring it up just so that we can all take a second to think about the real people, Russian and Ukrainian, who are dying over things were writing pet theories about. For us its info-tainment. For them its life and limb. Respect to those risking life and limb to bring us news and updates.  

If I think of anything else worth mentioning I will, if they post the video link (again, there were tech problems they may not) I will. Mostly though the questions were pretty basic, but from the sense of the student's questions more generally it seemed like most were genuinely curious about the context of the conflict rather than the type whose already decided ahead of time. We also have a good bunch here though. I also have a vague feeling that Zoomers, for better and worse, are very open to new ideas. I dont want this to devolve in to a generational schlacht so Ill stop, I think Elvis barely survived this mornings slap fights. 

Fascinating post, BeondTheGrave. Thanks for that.

[Aragorn2002]

51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There is no law that Putin recognizes. That is why he has to go, and why we need a massive air/cruise misslie strike in the Russian forces in Ukraine.

This window of opportunity is closing now Biden has said that he won't send troops to Ukraine. Poland 1939 revisited. A strong military gesture by the West could be decisive, but we're so easily intimidated. By standing on  the sideline we more or less accept that Putin has the right to invade and burn down Ukraine. That's how he will see it at least.

I don't think Putin is  as worried as most people here think.

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[melm]

25 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

This window of opportunity is closing now Biden has said that he won't send troops to Ukraine. Poland 1939 revisited. A strong military gesture by the West could be decisive, but we're so easily intimidated. By standing on  the sideline we more or less accept that Putin has the right to invade and burn down Ukraine. That's how he will see it at least.

I don't think Putin is  as worried as most people here think.

 

Or maybe he does.

[GAZ NZ]

So why did Russia go this hard out and lose everything? 

The whole world is against it

Just to invade Ukraine 

Doesn't make sense 

If Russia is that screwed and Putins losing it what's stopping them from nuking Nato/US? 

It's really concerning 

[CHEqTRO]

Something interesting that happened some hours ago:

It seems that a Russian IL76 tried to make a mad dash to Kaliningrad. It didnt work, and is being scorted by Polish Jets to Bratislava right now.

Edit: Here you can see It landing in Slovakia

Edited March 1, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, borg said:

My god . Administration building in Kherson… just saw OSINT. I think im

 

This happened in Kharkiv. 6 wounded for now. The missile (or a bomb?) hit not the building, but nearby

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, GAZ NZ said:

So why did Russia go this hard out and lose everything? 

The whole world is against it

Just to invade Ukraine 

Doesn't make sense 

If Russia is that screwed and Putins losing it what's stopping them from nuking Nato/US? 

It's really concerning 

I just can't imagine that Putin didn't calculate all this. The sanctions can't be a surprise, perhaps the speed with which they were implemented, but not the scale of it. I'm sure his Chinese friends will help him to survive economically. For Putin this isn't just invading Ukraine. It's a holy crusade to restore the Russian empire to it's former glory and to be remembered as a second Peter the Great or Stalin. That that would bring him a storm of words and sanctions for the West, is a small price to pay in his eyes.

Nukes are just a means to put pressure on the West. He won't use them, why would he? When all dust and smoke is gone, he has exactly what he wants. And he doesn't mind another Cold War. He is a child of the Cold War and I bet he enjoys it. His own people? He doesn't give a damn and I'm sure most Russians are prepared to follow him in his crusade. Those who aren't will face a short and miserable existence.

I don't have the time, nor the brains to post deep analyses like some knowledgeable people here. But I do know that from the moment those Russian troop concentrations were spotted, I concluded that Putin was going to attack.

So what can we do? Well, as I see it, apart from risking a war that still might come but for which we are far from ready, thanks to our imbecile politicians and our own stupidity, we should support Ukraine with everything we can and make the Russians bleed as much as possible, because only that will convince the Russian people that they are following a very dangerous individual. I hope the Ukrainians can pull off a Finland 1939, but I have my doubts. Apart from that we, as Europeans, must prepare ourselves for a Cold/Hot war and re-arm like hell. The US won't be around much longer to hold our hand, especially when China attacks Taiwan, which they sooner or later will. We also must make sure we don't need Russian gas and oil anymore, which is going to hurt big time, but must be done. We have to start the long, bloody process of breaking the back of Russia economically and morally, like we did in 1989, so one day Ukraine can indeed join EU and NATO.

Apart from that we must realize that the US is our only real ally in this world. Not always the ideal ally and one that should not be able to influence our decisions (and don't give them your wallet ), but a valueable friend in a world of enemies nevertheless.

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

Another odd thing...the incredibly bad accuracy of the Russian Iskanders: 

 

Yeah, that really baffles me too. Another thing I still don´t get is the obvious lack of russian geographical orientation of their units operating in Ukraine. Lots of vehicles and columns get lost, don´t know where they are, etc... Even in the 80s during REFORGERs we used 1/50.000 scale maps on every tank of our unit and made sure that down to the smallest corporal everyone knows exactly about his whereabouts. But now that the russians are supposed to have their own GPS (forgot the name) system, it is as if they neither have or make use of maps nor seems to be the russian GPS available to them right now.

[panzermartin]

About the GPS issues and units getting lost, is the West capable of disrupting  Russian Glonass in Ukraine? 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, melm said:

Or maybe he does.

Hmmm, could be propaganda. Same as Hitler putting his bad teeth in the carpet.

Too much wishful thinking to excuse our inaction and lack of courage.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

Truth is the first casualty in a war, so they say. 

[Baneman]

24 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

About the GPS issues and units getting lost, is the West capable of disrupting  Russian Glonass in Ukraine? 

Surely the point of Glonass was that it would be outside possible Western interference ?
But I guess if we've learned anything in the last 5 years or so, it's that anything can be hacked.

Still, it is surprising that the Russians didn't have backup maps if so. Don't you plan for everything to fail and plan accordingly ?

[Sarjen]

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russians entered to Kherson

Belasrusian troops entered to Chernihiv oblast

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

 

May he rest in peace.

[Sarjen]

 

And Belarus won't join Russian war in Ukraine?  Could that be true?