How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

I think Russia shot its wad and its game over for Putin. There are questions as to whether he is slightly or completely unhinged.  Failure may signal the loss of his wealth, power and perhaps his life. So what now?

1. Figuring it the end of his wealth, power and him he decides to take everybody down with him and orders a nuclear strike. If it ever came down to this, hopefully those he would need to cooperate will not comply.

2. Use chemical weapons and use the threat of nuclear weapons to keep NATO at bay. The irregular and civilians defending are not prepared or trained to deal with this and I don't know how prepared the reserves are. The regular army is probably the best prepared to deal with this. Like nukes, if it came down to this I hope the Russian military doesn't comply.

3. Use the TOS1s and level cities. The outcry will be massive and once again Putin could use the threat of nukes as a deterrent to NATO from responding.

Other than that I don't see a way out. A continued ground assault as it stands doesn't seem like it has a high chance of success. Its been a couple of days since NATO countries announced large arms shipments and they must be starting to arrive and be distributed. The supply lines of the Russians are extremely vulnerable. Only 1/3 of the original invasion force was combat troops and its obviously been diffused by losses, desertions and simply the fact the deeper they advanced and more area they captured means even under the best of circumstance - which obviously isn't the case their forces would become diffused.

[womble]

2 minutes ago, George MC said:

this summation of Russia’s supply issues. 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-logistics-invasion/

Seems like a pretty facile treatment of the subject, with little actual additional insight into the reality of Ukraine. Though in some ways, it emphasises the disparity between the speed of advance of Russia in Ukraine (at a 24 hour average of 1mph, they should be way past Kharkiv by now...) and that of an actual competent army that (while coming close to it) never actually ran out of supply, rather than supply issues causing wholesale abandonment of significant assets.

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. 

Operationaly they might still win in Ukraine, that much is true. Strategically? He is losing and very badly

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Swedish media reported 90 minutes ago, about a 27km long convoy of mech units. Tanks, IFV/APC, tankers, atillery, and other support. 

 

Ukrainian artillery, and CAS. You have your targets! Unleash hell on them  Slava Ukraini 

My kingdom for a couple of Warthogs.

[akd]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now in another reality, this would be where NATO builds up forces in the Baltics to pin down any Russian re-deploying options...oh wait they did that with the VJTF: https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-combat-ready-force-eastern-states-russia/31723732.html

 

There is probably something to be said for not creating the appearance that NATO is mobilizing to take military action against Russia or Belarus.  Just enough forces to show solidarity and maybe give pause to pulling everything (especially Belarus military) and no provocative demonstrations.  Support Ukraine’s fight and isolate Russia / Belarus economically with clear conditions for removal of the sanctions.

The entire world can completely, openly and honestly say that no party to this crisis has harmed a Russian citizen in Russia, or even threatened to harm them with violence.

Edited February 28, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

 

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

With the invasion being such an incomparably catastrophic f-up in every conceivable way for Putin and his regime; is there really any way to avoid nuclear brinkmanship at this point and how to proceed in that event? ...As Steve said very far up thread, there's nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal (much less rabid), and now they are even threatening "consequences" for any nation that provides lethal arms/means to Ukraine which most NATO countries have already committed to very publicly. This is a contemporary Cuban Missile crisis but perhaps exponentially worse because it truly is involving the whole world. 

...long time (decade+) lurker, own all the games etc. Thanks BF for keeping this thread open. Appreciate any response or thoughts regarding the above question. 

I can understand the concern, all the DEFCON stuff is also troubling.  When one elevates that equation - nuclear war - Clausewitz no longer applies, one cannot pursue a policy of self-destruction rationally.  So the real question is one of "is Russia a suicide state?"  And despite the obvious issues, I have to go with a firm "no" on this one.  I do not think they are ideologically there, nor is this existential to the Russian people.  It is likely existential for Putin and his government but I am not sure even his hold on power is cultish enough to go down this road. 

Now if we start seeing BMD batteries outside major US urban centers, I will start to get worried, but I expect this is Putins way to try and get the world to back off and somehow contain this mess. 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Hi everyone. Nikita here.

I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.

1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.

2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.

3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

Great to hear from you!  I can tell you we've definitely been thinking of you even though you are not in the war zone.

Myself and no doubt the people you speak of are humbled by this.  This is exactly why it is better to engage with each other instead of lobbing grenades.  You need to congratulate yourself as well because you clearly demonstrated that you were open minded enough to hear what was being said, even when you disagreed with it.  If it helps your mood any, you have left a deep impression upon me and others as well.

Take very good care of yourself.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. If Kiev holds I can believe it, but not before.

I am with Aragorn on this.  Lots of success so far, but Putin is now throwing in reserves.  He can't afford to lose.  I'm worried. 

I sure hope those ATGMs and stingers get there in time.  With the mud, if they can destroy vehicles from a distance to block roads, would sure slow things down.  and also could savage any supply columns following along through thin advance corridors. 

Hopefully the advance in the far NW will stumble across the Polish border and bring NATO more into the fight. yeah, sounds crazy but I want NATO to move into western Ukraine.

[db_zero]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Seems like a pretty facile treatment of the subject, with little actual additional insight into the reality of Ukraine. Though in some ways, it emphasises the disparity between the speed of advance of Russia in Ukraine (at a 24 hour average of 1mph, they should be way past Kharkiv by now...) and that of an actual competent army that (while coming close to it) never actually ran out of supply, rather than supply issues causing wholesale abandonment of significant assets.

There are significant differences. The US had complete air dominance. From what I've heard Russia has not secured compete air dominance.

The US didn't face a opposing force that was amply equipped or supplied with sophisticated anti-tank, anti-air and tactical radios.

The Russian logistical tail is going to be coming under increasing attacks and will need significant protection.

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I can understand the concern, all the DEFCON stuff is also troubling.  When one elevates that equation - nuclear war - Clausewitz no longer applies, one cannot pursue a policy of self-destruction rationally.  So the real question is one of "is Russia a suicide state?"  And despite the obvious issues, I have to go with a firm "no" on this one.  I do not think they are ideologically there, nor is this existential to the Russian people.  It is likely existential for Putin and his government but I am not sure even his hold on power is cultish enough to go down this road. 

Now if we start seeing BMD batteries outside major US urban centers, I will start to get worried, but I expect this is Putins way to try and get the world to back off and somehow contain this mess. 

Precisely. It's cheer bluff. And one of Putin's biggest mistakes ever. This will even convince his buddies that he lost it. It also infuriated his opponents, which is even more of a mistake. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

There is probably something to be said for not creating the appearance that NATO is mobilizing to take military action against Russia or Belarus.  Just enough forces to show solidarity and maybe give pause to pulling everything (especially Belarus military) and no provocative demonstrations.  Support Ukraine’s fight and isolate Russia / Belarus economically with clear conditions for removal of the sanctions.

Oh I guarantee the military planners have been driven nuts trying to figure that one out.  How much is just enough without driving public opinion into Putins arms?  It probably helped that Putin went all "hey I got nukes" because more force appears defensive now and not offensive.  That said, no way Putin isn't watch the other borders, he is ex-KGB and one paranoid SOB, no way he lived this long without being one.  

[womble]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

There are significant differences. The US had complete air dominance. From what I've heard Russia has not secured compete air dominance.

The US didn't face a opposing force that was amply equipped or supplied with sophisticated anti-tank, anti-air and tactical radios.

The Russian logistical tail is going to be coming under increasing attacks and will need significant protection.

Indeed there are, and the article doesn't even begin to think of touching on them. It's pretty much puff filler.

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

There is probably something to be said for not creating the appearance that NATO is mobilizing to take military action against Russia or Belarus.  Just enough forces to show solidarity and maybe give pause to pulling everything (especially Belarus military) and no provocative demonstrations.  Support Ukraine’s fight and isolate Russia / Belarus economically with clear conditions for removal of the sanctions.

The entire world can completely, openly and honestly say that no party to this crisis has harmed a Russian citizen in Russia, or even threatened to harm them with violence.

Yes, this.

Hey AKD, remember that video you posted of a long trainload of Russian forces headed north in Belarus?  I'm wondering if that was being positioned as a tripwire force somewhere along the border with either Poland or Lithuania and/or to make NATO nervous?

Steve

 

[Vic4]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I can understand the concern, all the DEFCON stuff is also troubling.  When one elevates that equation - nuclear war - Clausewitz no longer applies, one cannot pursue a policy of self-destruction rationally.  So the real question is one of "is Russia a suicide state?"  And despite the obvious issues, I have to go with a firm "no" on this one. 

@The_Capt But in this case we relying on insubordination of Putin's underlings to not carry out such an order, correct? Really not trying to chicken little here fwiw.. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Vic4

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Exactly. I'm getting extremely nervous from all that optimism. So much wishful thinking. The Russians haven't even started yet and the world thinks they are beaten. If Kiev holds I can believe it, but not before.

I posted a really long assessment post about three pages back now (we really need a billboard on this thing).  Russia is definitely not out of strategic or operational gas yet but that needle is dropping. Accepting peace talks 4-5 days after you invade another country is never a good sign unless 1) that was your plan all along and 2) you can dictate the terms completely.  Russia has not met either condition.  

It is the options space that is indicating Russia is in trouble here: sue for some sort of gamed win "Russian Minor Victory" actually at this point pyrrhic might be a better term or engage in a brutal long slog for which I am not sure the Russian people have the appetite.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, womble said:

Indeed there are, and the article doesn't even begin to think of touching on them. It's pretty much puff filler.

Given the audience it is intended for, that's about all the detail they can handle.  Remember, most people in the world know absolutely nothing about military operations at all, not to mention the behind-the-scenes stuff it takes to make them function.

About the nuclear threats from Putin.  He seems to not understand that what you do/say often tells the other person more about your thinking than you want them to know.  If he's reaching for his biggest threat, then he feels none of his other threats matter at all.  So much for the bluff and bluster of 2014/2015 where he said (paraphrasing) that Russia thanks the West for the sanctions because it will help Russia become a stronger and more independent country.  Nobody thought that was true, but theoretically what he said could have been true.  Certainly it resonated with pro-Putin fans around the world and the Troll Army had a message to weaponize.  Going straight to the nuclear threat, on the other hand, can only be seen as a sign of weakness.

Steve

[db_zero]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am with Aragorn on this.  Lots of success so far, but Putin is now throwing in reserves.  He can't afford to lose.  I'm worried. 

I sure hope those ATGMs and stingers get there in time.  With the mud, if they can destroy vehicles from a distance to block roads, would sure slow things down.  and also could savage any supply columns following along through thin advance corridors. 

Hopefully the advance in the far NW will stumble across the Polish border and bring NATO more into the fight. yeah, sounds crazy but I want NATO to move into western Ukraine.

Just how good are these reserves? Before the war there were those who mentioned how much better the Russian Army was after years of reform.

Thats not looking like the case.

If the reserves being brought up are poor quality and poorly motivated, they will just be cannon fodder and the disaster just got worse for Putin.

I do agree Putin has to continue to try and make something of this.

[MikeyD]

About a week ago I was on a news chat site where posters were speculating 'The coming war will be like this, the coming war will be like that.' I speculated the coming war will resemble the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The Israelis had overwhelming superiority but didn't make it more than twelve miles into the country before being turned back. In a fit of pique they then cluster-bombed everything at random and blew up all of the bridges they could find in Lebanon. But it proved fruitless. Eventually the Israeli government fell because of the disaster.

[Armorgunner]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this.

Hey AKD, remember that video you posted of a long trainload of Russian forces headed north in Belarus?  I'm wondering if that was being positioned as a tripwire force somewhere along the border with either Poland or Lithuania and/or to make NATO nervous?

Steve

 

Does´nt need much, right now for the Russians to feel threatened. Most of their active forces from German Königsberg (Kaliningrad). Is in Ukarine. So one armored battalion in Poland, could look really threathening now .

 

Is Ukraine a part of Russia, then Kaliningrad/königsberg is a part of Germany. And the Baltic states belong to Sweden! If we go by Russian mouthtalk!

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I posted a really long assessment post about three pages back now (we really need a billboard on this thing).  Russia is definitely not out of strategic or operational gas yet but that needle is dropping. Accepting peace talks 4-5 days after you invade another country is never a good sign unless 1) that was your plan all along and 2) you can dictate the terms completely.  Russia has not met either condition.  

It is the options space that is indicating Russia is in trouble here: sue for some sort of gamed win "Russian Minor Victory" actually at this point pyrrhic might be a better term or engage in a brutal long slog for which I am not sure the Russian people have the appetite.

What if those negotiations are just a ruse to buy some time to bring in the big guns and give the world some false hope in order to avoid more sanctions? Besides they had hoped to lure Zelensky in their trap. Wouldn't have been the first Ukrainian leader they've poisoned. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

@The_Capt But in this case we relying on insubordination of Putin's underlings to not carry out such an order, correct? Really not trying to chicken little here fwiw.. 

Well first hurdle is whether Putin has completely lost the bubble.  I mean a really bad plan and botching an invasion is not a sign of complete insanity.  If the guy has gone totally "the Russian people do not deserve to exist either if they cannot support me" then the short answer is "yes", we are going to rely on his underlings to take him out and introduce him to his god.  But here one has to really look at his hold on power, it is pretty strong but not to the point 170 million people are willing to die for him alone.  North Korea is another story, and so would a cult state where a really powerful ideology was in play, so think if ISIL won and formed a state with nukes, then we are all in trouble.

The next big strategic question is "how far will Putin go?".  If he moves to chemical, or god help us tactical nuclear weapons to try and save this thing, and his military actually back him, well all bets are off at that point.  But I am not sure if we are there yet, or even will get there to be honest.  A lot of very rich Russians have a lot to lose here, and are losing based on the economic hurt which is just starting. If one adds WMDs onto civilian areas on top of that I think we will see a Russian coup, maybe a civil war...which is whole other set of bad.

Edited February 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

If the reserves being brought up are poor quality and poorly motivated, they will just be cannon fodder and the disaster just got worse for Putin.

Yes and yes.  I've made some analysis of this before but basically Russia concentrated its contract (think regular soldier) soldiers in a small number of units in large percentages so that their readiness would be quite high.  Some of the less prominent units probably had just enough contract soldiers to man the desks during the day and turn off the lights at night.  Conscripts filled in the rest.

Also, legally speaking Russia is not allowed to send conscript soldiers outside of Russia's border without some sort of official authorization of hostilities from the Duma.  In 2014/2015 they did not have such an authorization, so before units went into battle the conscripts were pressured to sign up to be contractors.  They were offered signing bonuses as an inducement (some claimed they never got it, but that's a different story).  There were even some who said their commanders signed them up without their knowledge or in some way tricked them into signing up.

The point of this is even for the tip of the spear units there is a smaller amount of conscripts, but for the other units there is smaller amount of contract soldiers. 

1 minute ago, db_zero said:

I do agree Putin has to continue to try and make something of this.

Putin's war on Ukraine is kinda like someone who's house is about to be foreclosed on.  Instead of trying to find the best options to address the situation, he takes what little money he has and travels to Las Vegas or Monaco in the hopes he can win and win big.  In his mind this is a good plan so he doesn't even conceive that he might need another plan in case he loses.  Because if he envisioned losing, he might not gamble so much.  And gambling seems like such a great solution, so no need for a backup plan. Self reinforcing logic.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Here's something we can all laugh at.  Sent to me by a friend who has no interest in military stuff at all, so that makes it even funnier to me: