How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, melm said:

nothing stops UKR has nuclear weapons as Turkey already has.

Have you ever read the 1994 agreement? Ukraine got rid of the Soviet arsenal on its soil. From hindsight I call it a huge mistake. I was born in 1950 and listened to the old Soviet propaganda on TV. Putin wants to reinstate the Politburo in all Slavonic countries. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by chuckdyke

[John Kettler]

49 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I understand, John. No offence intended. I value your posts, you know that.

Aragorn2002,

Appreciate your kind response. We're good. There's so much going on, so much at stake, so many interests, some competing, some complementary, that it's frighteningly easy to get swept up. On my end, because of my TBI and Aspbergers, which was exacerbated by the TBI, at times I find it so overwhelming I have to break off. Was similarly fried by CNN's 24/7 Desert Storm coverage, but I didn't have to process it with a TBI thrown in, either. Also, there's a $40 word attached to people with Aspbergers. It's perseveration and basically refers to getting rolling on a topic and just keeping on going, whether in conversation or, in my case, posting! The more stress I'm under and the less sleep I've had, the more I tend to perseverate.

Thus, I find myself in a multi-dimensional tightrope walking exercise in which I seek to take in rapidly breaking intel items, assess them as best I can, when I can and comment on them where possible, while also staying current with the by now hundreds of other posts, which must also be screened for useful info, whether other nuggets from current or near current other SM posts, say, or things like the article on Russian logistics. And as long ago (late June of 1989 when I left) as my Soviet Threat Analyst days were, much of what I knew then still applies now, allowing me to provide perspectives on things when theoretically my knowledge base is largely obsolete. But how obsolete is it when T-64s, T-72s and T-80s, however upgraded, are still the standard tanks, when the MI-24, MI-29 and Ka-50 series (the last already in flight test when I left) roam the skies and dispense death, along with the Su-25? Much the same situation obtains ref artillery, with the 2S1, 2S3, 2S7, BM-21, BM-27, etc. still in service. And today's much higher tech and far smaller manpower Red Army is the result of massive reforms initiated by Marshal Ogarkov while I was still in military aerospace. Likewise, what the Soviets used to call reconnaissance-strike complexes are now fully operational, as evidenced by bad things resulting from UA soldiers using their cell phones! Despite all its high tech, today's Red Army is still heavily driven by concepts and principles antedating the GPW in some cases, but now the means finally exist to execute at least some of them. But as we all know, today's modern battlefield is both vastly more complex and vastly more dangerous, often with no safe rear, either. 

And have to do all of the above while not going off the rails, somehow getting sleep and not getting so caught up in things I post or say something inappropriate. And all of the above while juggling my endless fascination with weapons and warfare against the all too real havoc and destruction and the knowledge that we CMers have our own people in, or potentially in, the combat zone. This is altogether together too close to having brother George in his M3 CFV right across the border from East Germany and a SECRET level Army study in my safe showing a 50% casualty rate for units like his fighting the Covering Force Battle--and then war breaks out.

Finally, this is ever in my mind. Has been n since I first read it and was poleaxed by it.

https://warprayer.org

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[arkhangelsk2021]

9 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

We know they run out of fuel due to the conversation with the civilians, which by theway, tell them that they should surrender as a lot of other russians have already done.

I see. Though quite frankly, I find it weird. I can accept that their resupply did not arrive as hoped, but it's still early enough in the game they should still be on their first tank of gas. Wait ... unless they sold the gas, perhaps thinking they'd never have to actually invade Ukraine.

Quote

 

In the case of Gostomel, they had a big follow-up drop, but, due to the fact that the Ukranian air defense was still up, decided to abort. This air defence will then go to keep being operative and shoot down two IL-76, presumably packed with paratroopers, some time ago this morning. A success in that operation would have allowed Russian forces to deploy a VDV regiment inside the Kyiv perimeter, and could have precipitated a quick fall of the capital. As of now, all attacks trying to breakthrought the defenses of the capital have failed.

 

Two IL-76 cannot carry a regiment, no matter how hard they try or whatever configuration (BMD mounted or foot) they choose. And it is difficult to quickly eliminate all air defense - a MANPADS might be to small to flat out kill a large transport, but just one Strela-10 vehicle that's left untouched and boom, one dead IL-76. Under that circumstance, it's hard to see what the Russians could have quickly done to guarantee that this could not happen to them.

[melm]

23 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Have you ever read the 1994 agreement? Ukraine got rid of the Soviet arsenal on its soil. From hindsight I call it a huge mistake. I was born in 1950 and listened to the old Soviet propaganda on TV. Putin wants to reinstate the Politburo in all Slavonic countries. 

Yes, I know the 1994 memorandum. I am not so sure that it's still obligatory for each side. To be honest, it's already violated by the invasion. Any escalation can happen.

[AlanSA]

1 hour ago, melm said:

Very sadly. Yes. But what else can people of Ukranian do then? Giving up easily won't help to get Putin's leniency, won't get Crimea and Donbass back. They just have no choice.

Yes they do. They can choose not to engage in an urban war that will cost thousands of innocent lives. Crimea and Donbass are not coming back for the foreseeable future and thousands or perhaps tens of thousands more Ukrainian civilian deaths isn't going to change that.

Bottom line is Russia is willing to fight for Ukraine and the west is not. Putin called the west's bluff and now it's time to cut losses and spare lives. Not prolong the conflict and the devastating consequences that will have for innocent Ukrainians and also vulnerable people across the globe from the economic fallout. Not to mention the ever increasing possibility  of war between nuclear powers.

Edited February 26, 2022 by AlanSA

[Aragorn2002]

32 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Aragorn2002,

Appreciate your kind response. We're good. There's so much going on, so much at stake, so many interests, some competing, some complementary, that it's frighteningly easy to get swept up. On my end, because of my TBI and Aspbergers, which was exacerbated by the TBI, at times I find it so overwhelming I have to break off. Was similarly fried by CNN's 24/7 Desert Storm coverage, but I didn't have to process it with a TBI thrown in, either. Also, there's a $40 word attached to people with Aspbergers. It's perseveration and basically refers to getting rolling on a topic and just keeping on going, whether in conversation or, in my case, posting! The more stress I'm under and the less sleep I've had, the more I tend to perseverate.

Thus, I find myself in a multi-dimensional tightrope walking exercise in which I seek to take in rapidly breaking intel items, assess them as best I can, when I can and comment on them where possible, while also staying current with the by now hundreds of other posts, which must also be screened for useful info, whether other nuggets from current or near current other SM posts, say, or things like the article on Russian logistics. And as long ago (late June of 1989 when I left) as my Soviet Threat Analyst days were, much of what I knew then still applies now, allowing me to provide perspectives on things when theoretically my knowledge base is largely obsolete. But how obsolete is it when T-64s, T-72s and T-80s, however upgraded, are still the standard tanks, when the MI-24, MI-29 and Ka-50 series (the last already in flight test when I left) roam the skies and dispense death, along with the Su-25? Much the same situation obtains ref artillery, with the 2S1, 2S3, 2S7, BM-21, BM-27, etc. still in service. And today's much higher tech and far smaller manpower Red Army is the result of massive reforms initiated by Marshal Ogarkov while I was still in military aerospace. Likewise, what the Soviets used to call reconnaissance-strike complexes are now fully operational, as evidenced by bad things resulting from UA soldiers using their cell phones! Despite all its high tech, today's Red Army is still heavily driven by concepts and principles antedating the GPW in some cases, but now the means finally exist to execute at least some of them. But as we all know, today's modern battlefield is both vastly more complex and vastly more dangerous, often with no safe rear, either. 

And have to do all of the above while not going off the rails, somehow getting sleep and not getting so caught up in things I post or say something inappropriate. And all of the above while juggling my endless fascination with weapons and warfare against the all too real havoc and destruction and the knowledge that we CMers have our own people in, or potentially in, the combat zone. This is altogether together too close to having brother George in his M3 CFV right across the border from East Germany and a SECRET level Army study in my safe showing a 50% casualty rate for units like his fighting the Covering Force Battle--and then war breaks out.

Finally, this is ever in my mind. Has been n since I first read it and was poleaxed by it.

https://warprayer.org

Regards,

John Kettler

Lost for words, John, but thank you for yours. As always I wish you all the best.

Twain's War Prayer humbles and calms me. Very impressive.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[womble]

7 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

Yes they do. They can choose not to engage in an urban war that will cost thousands of innocent lives. Crimea and Donbass are not coming back for the foreseeable future and thousands or perhaps tens of thousands more Ukrainian civilian deaths isn't going to change that.

Bottom line is Russia is willing to fight for Ukraine and the west is not. Putin called the west's bluff and now it's time to cut losses and spare lives. Not prolong the conflict and the devastating consequences that will have for innocent Ukrainians and also vulnerable people across the globe from the economic fallout. Not to mention the ever increasing possibility  of war between nuclear powers.

And the Ukrainians should just knuckle under to a dictator who enforces his will with draconian measures and flat-out lies, because the West is leaving them to swing (which they aren't)? The Ukrainians aren't fighting Putin because the West wants them to, they're fighting him and his gangster buddies because they don't want to be ruled by them. This battle isn't about getting Crimea and Donbass back it's about resisting international criminality.

[arkhangelsk2021]

Thanks to Japanese subtitles, I can at least get the gist of this conversation.

Quote

Note: White text is Ukrainian woman, Yellow text is Russian soldier

0:00 Who are you?
0:04 What exercise? Are you Russians?
0:06 Are you Russians?
0:08 (Yellow): Yes
0:09: What are you doing here?
0:10 (Yellow): It's not like I make the calls.
0:13: Occupier! Fascists!
0:16 Why are you coming onto our turf?
0:17 Why are you carrying weapons?
0:19 We ... who knows about such things ...
0:20 Take these "seeds" and move on
0:21 So when you die here, a sunflower can grow out of your grave.
0:24 (yellow): Is that so?
0:24 (yellow): You can't change anything just by talking about it.
0:25 (yellow): Let's just try not to make things worse.
0:28 (yellow): Please.
0:30: What do you mean make things worse?
0:31: (I meant), let's try not to make things worse than even now.
0:34: You, everyone, put those seeds into your pockets.
0:37: Carry those seeds. You will be carrying them to your deaths.
0:41: You come to our soil.
0:42 (yellow): Understood. I've heard you out.
0:44: Do you understand? You are an occupying army.
0:46 (yellow): Understood.
0:47: You are the enemy.
0:47 (yellow): Is that so?
0:48: You'll be cursed!
0:49 (yellow): Is that so?
0:50: It is so.
0:53 (yellow): That's it. Listen carefully. 
0:54: I heard you.
0:55 (this should also have been yellow): Let's try not to make things worse.
0:56: Don't worsen things?! You came here - we didn't call you!

Say what you will about the invasion, but I do think the soldier here deserves some credit for maintaining a controlled demeanor in the face of a woman that's suddenly coming up and yelling at him for something he can't control. He's taking Putin's whole "We are brothers" stuff to heart.

=====

In other news, there's disorganization in Ukrainian public reporting:

Quote

In the Brody area at 9 am a Russian landing party landed on 3 helicopters, about 60 people - this was announced by Andriy Sadovy. Our troops repulsed. Now they are retreating towards the forest in the area of Leviatyn

which was refuted by the Ukrainian national authorities:

I'd buy the version where there's no operation. It's not clear how such an operation supports or enables anything.

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add more recent events.

[womble]

16 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

the soldier here deserves some credit for maintaining a controlled demeanor in the face of a woman that's suddenly coming up and yelling at him for something he can't control. He's taking Putin's whole "We are brothers" stuff to heart.

He's at least being a restrained and responsible human being. He might even be professionally observing the RoE that his superiors have set for his AoO. He doesn't have to take Putin's propaganda "to heart" to remain a loyal soldier of the nation he's sworn to serve.

[Aragorn2002]

24 minutes ago, womble said:

He's at least being a restrained and responsible human being. He might even be professionally observing the RoE that his superiors have set for his AoO. He doesn't have to take Putin's propaganda "to heart" to remain a loyal soldier of the nation he's sworn to serve.

No, but he probably will shoot and kill Ukrainian civilians who try to defend their fatherland and family nevertheless, so let's not get carried away about the humanity of the average Russian soldier.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[AlanSA]

47 minutes ago, womble said:

And the Ukrainians should just knuckle under to a dictator who enforces his will with draconian measures and flat-out lies, because the West is leaving them to swing (which they aren't)? The Ukrainians aren't fighting Putin because the West wants them to, they're fighting him and his gangster buddies because they don't want to be ruled by them. This battle isn't about getting Crimea and Donbass back it's about resisting international criminality.

I'd expect them to find an alternative to engaging in a major urban firefight with the Russian military. If that means capitulating and facing the imposition of a foreign dictator so be it. Especially since that will be the likely result in the end anyway.

It's easy to advocate martyring people, especially if it's from afar,  but what are the realistic outcomes  people expect from continuing to fight in this manner? What would be a, for the lack of a better word, 'satisfactory' outcome and the odds of actually achieving it vs potential consequences?

 

 

 

 

[womble]

38 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

I'd expect them to find an alternative to engaging in a major urban firefight with the Russian military.

Perhaps they consider the alternatives to be less palatable. "They" here, being the people of Ukraine, who, it seems are pretty invested in making their country unpalatable to the Russians. Perhaps they think that the people of Russia will find the prospect of their sons getting ground up in multiple urban battlefields for no good reason more unpalatable than accepting that force majeur isn't the best way to make friends and influence people.

38 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

Especially since that will be the likely result in the end anyway.

It's just a little bit early to be speculating about "likely" outcomes. A week ago, many people thought an actual invasion was "unlilkely". The war (and it is a war, though I haven't heard anyone with a good idea of what Russias goals are; I'm sure they have some, but whether it's regime change or annexation remains unclear) two days in and it's certainly not the fait accompli that might have been expected in some quarters.

38 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

It's easy to advocate martyring people

Perhaps, though I'm advocating nothing, merely suggesting reasons that Ukraine and Ukrainians might be disinclined to adopt supine capitulation as a method of resolving the conflict at hand.

38 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

What would be a, for the lack of a better word, 'satisfactory' outcome and the odds of actually achieving it vs potential consequences?

That's a really good question, to which the Russian half is very difficult to determine. If Putin's goal is to make the defensive NATO alliance take a step back from its eastern borders, then he's doing the wrong things. The preposterous claims he's making for internal consumption don't constitute a negotiating position (and any cessation of hostilities will be a negotiation, even if one side has a distinct advantage; there's no realistic prospect that Ukraine will just give up, especially when they don't know what they'd get if they did).

I'm not Ukrainian, but at the moment, I reckon they'd settle for Russian troops just getting the hell out of their country. They're not likely ever to be in a position to demand reparations for the damage done to their country. They can look at Russia nowadays, see the way that Putin runs things, and reckon that even at the cost of thousands, it's worth attempting to emulate the success of the Muj in Afghanistan. It's not for me to judge where they draw the line. It's their country, and worth fighting for to exactly the extent that they consider it so, since they're the ones doing the dying.

It's just as easy to tell people to give up and accept the jackbooted heel of oppression from afar, as well, when you won't be under that heel.

Edited to add: France waited 4 years, Poland waited a similar time. It wouldn't be unreasonable for Ukraine to be thinking in those sort of timescales.

Edited February 26, 2022 by womble
Afterthought

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

No, but he probably will shoot and kill Ukrainian civilians who try to defend their fatherland and family nevertheless, so let's not get carried away about the humanity of the average Russian soldier.

Just like American soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan in their comparable situations. But at least it does mean that the Russians, right now, can still be worked with. The Ukrainians will have to factor this realistic factor into their calculations - if they keep resisting ... the reality is that a soldier's humor is finite. Expend it all uselessly by sniping them or by making this kind of attack and they will start committing atrocities. Of course, it'd make for great theater for the United States, but that doesn't improve the lives of Ukrainians.

 

31 minutes ago, womble said:

Edited to add: France waited 4 years, Poland waited a similar time. It wouldn't be unreasonable for Ukraine to be thinking in those sort of timescales.

My question at this junction would be whether the Russians are, objectively speaking, sufficiently bad that these multi-year waits are a good alternative - assuming that is the Russians are going to occupy them. The video I cited above, as well as videos of other people celebrating Ukrainians going up to "scold" Russians and getting away with it, is a sign that at least if they fold now, they can receive a deal sufficiently good that it won't be worth multiple years of guerilla warfare.

Also do note that both France and Poland didn't save themselves. They were saved by the Allies (the Polish by the Soviets). It seems no one is interested in doing the same for Ukraine.

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add a reply to Womble.

[Andy_101]

I'm seeing a lot of reports / videos now of captured Russian soldiers (many are young men / teenagers) who appear utterly bewildered that they were in a conflict, and believing they were on military exercises.  Is that possible?  Surely they would have known they were invading Ukraine when the order was given?  Or were they kept in the dark until it was too late?  

[Aragorn2002]

120.000 Ukrainian refugees so far. Will perhaps rise to 4.000.000. Big Russian airborne operation going on near Kiev, which is targeted by Russian missiles.

19 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Just like American soldiers in Iraq or Afghanistan in their comparable situations. But at least it does mean that the Russians, right now, can still be worked with. The Ukrainians will have to factor this realistic factor into their calculations - if they keep resisting ... the reality is that a soldier's humor is finite. Expend it all uselessly by sniping them or by making this kind of attack and they will start committing atrocities. Of course, it'd make for great theater for the United States, but that doesn't improve the lives of Ukrainians.

I think the average Ukrainian would spit you in the face. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Holien]

3 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

doesn't improve the lives of Ukrainians

Russia invading Ukraine doesn't improve the lives of the Ukrainian people. 

Russia has forced this upon the Ukrainians and there is now no good outcome. 

Russia could end this today by withdrawing. 

The best we can hope for is that the Ukrainian resistance is not in vain and forces Russia to withdraw. 

The Ukrainians must do what they feel is best for them.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, AlanSA said:

I'd expect them to find an alternative to engaging in a major urban firefight with the Russian military. If that means capitulating and facing the imposition of a foreign dictator so be it. Especially since that will be the likely result in the end anyway.

So this

 

18 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

The Ukrainians will have to factor this realistic factor into their calculations - if they keep resisting ... the reality is that a soldier's humor is finite.

And this is, victim blaming.  An angle oppressors and abusers have used forever: “this is your fault for struggling”.  It is the little old lady’s fault for getting shot.

I am not sure what the Ukrainian’s should do they are a free people (for now) who are fighting and dying for that freedom.  I think Russia should stop because the loss of life is entirely on them right now.  I think Russia should pay for the damage it has caused and toss out its current government while it is at it and rejoin the international community.

But we are being all realistic and pragmatic. Ok, same answer.  Realistically this will devolve into a long running insurgency backed by western powers that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a grade school dance - so awkward but adorable.  This will likely create destabilizing pressure on Putins regime and instability in Russia itself.  So from a Russian point of view Ukraine rolling over and quitting is the only good option at this point.

And I for one sincerely hope they find a way to remain a free and democratic nation able to chart their own destiny.

Edited February 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[Holien]

1 minute ago, Andy_101 said:

I'm seeing a lot of reports / videos now of captured Russian soldiers (many are young men / teenagers) who appear utterly bewildered that they were in a conflict, and believing they were on military exercises.  Is that possible?  Surely they would have known they were invading Ukraine when the order was given?  Or were they kept in the dark until it was too late?  

Easy to keep them in the dark...

Let's hope these reports are true and that Ukraine treats any prisoners well as they will return to Russia and you want them to know the truth. 

[Holien]

21 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

They were saved by the Allies (the Polish by the Soviets). It seems no one is interested in doing the same for Ukraine.

Have you ever heard of the "phrase out of the frying pan into the fire"? I think that succinctly describes the Polish being "saved" by the Soviets. It might be a good analogy for Ukraine but history will judge that.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Holien

[CHEqTRO]

17 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think the average Ukrainian would spit you in the face. 

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And this is, victim blaming.  

Couldn´t have put it better myself.

Now, some news in reference to their possible commitment to the conflict and the referendum:

Edited February 26, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[CHEqTRO]

Also, in reference to air superiority:

Plus those IL 76 that were shoot down, it was Ukranian Aircraft who did it, not ground AA

EDIT:

Those are the Russians casualties as claimed by the Ukranian army. Probably the numbers are somewhat exagerated, but honestly, seeing all the videos out there, and the conditions on the ground, I do not think they are that crazy.

Edited February 26, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[arkhangelsk2021]

28 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

120.000 Ukrainian refugees so far. Will perhaps rise to 4.000.000. Big Russian airborne operation going on near Kiev, which is targeted by Russian missiles.

I think the average Ukrainian would spit you in the face. 

They are having a war. I think missiles are ... inevitable.

And Aragorn, I said that knowing it won't be popular, but I do think you need to make a choice. First, you need to decide whether you believe Ukraine can stop Russia without it descending into a guerilla war. If yes, go ahead and cheer for the Ukrainians every time they destroy some Russian transport. But since you've called them "defenseless", that does not seem to be true.

If that's the case, the rational move is to think very hard as to whether an insurgency is worth it. A second best is arguably better than turning all your cities into piles of ember. You can blame the Russians. I can blame the Russians. But the city in ashes will be Ukrainian. 

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Also, in reference to air superiority: Plus those IL 76 that were shoot down, it was Ukranian Aircraft who did it, not ground AA

Interesting - I assume they did hit the airfields, but the MiGs are known for being able to be operated off highways if it comes down to it.

Edited February 26, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021

[Haiduk]

Some words about tactic of Russians. They use a tactic of "small raid groups" somewhat similar to Mongols in Mediaeval times. Their BTGs are moving to own goals initially in composition of company groups , but after they approach to own objectives, they disperse on small combat groups - usually 1-2 platoons with reinforcement and make probes on own front in own sector. In this way they search weak points in our defense. If they find a hole or they can overrun our defense - other part of combat group join itself again and continue own advance.  

During seizing of towns and cities they use in mass small diversion groups, which sneak to settlements as civilians or on the captured Ukrainian vehicles, wearing in Ukranian uniform. Among diversion groups not only militaries, but also police, SOBR and local pro-Russian elements, but the role of latter is mostly to paint special markers, leading to primary objectives with special UV-paint. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

46 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

it does mean that the Russians, right now, can still be worked with

No. It means that the Russian soldiery, right now, aren't instructed to suppress civilian resistance in a brutal manner, but to remain civil. There is no working with Russia-in-the-person-of-Putin. Or, at least, there's no way anyone can see to work with him, as he's being steadfastly unreasonable (and has painted himself into a corner, I think, with some assistance from the US intelligence publicity, in the shape of removing any fig leaf he might have wanted to hide behind).

Of course, that attitude of the soldiery will probably change, once they start hurting, and they won't take it out on the criminals that sent them to do their dirty work, will they?

46 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

My question at this junction would be whether the Russians are, objectively speaking, sufficiently bad that these multi-year waits are a good alternative - assuming that is the Russians are going to occupy them

There might be a difference between occupation and the installation of a puppet government supported by Russian "security assistance", using the model so ruthlessly applied by Lukashenko to the north, but there might not, too. And that assessment is for the Ukrainians to make, not us. And the fact remains that at the moment, for all the restraint being shown by the Russian forces in country, there isn't even a "negotiating position" set out by the Russians for the Ukrainians to surrender under, let alone something to dicker against.

 

46 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Also do note that both France and Poland didn't save themselves. They were saved by the Allies (the Polish by the Soviets). It seems no one is interested in doing the same for Ukraine.

Aye, that's not something I'm unaware of. And things change as years pass. The Russians were party to the occupation of Poland in the beginning, and came back a few years later.

 

25 minutes ago, Holien said:

Have you ever heard of the "phrase out of the frying pan into the fire"? I think that succinctly describes the Polish being "saved" by the Soviets.

I'd have to ask a Pole who lived through it all, but I get the impression that, while being in the Soviet sphere of influence for half a century or so might not have been ideal, it left more of Poland to find its liberty than being under the Third Reich for that long would've.

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by womble
Completion of a half-finished sentence

[CHEqTRO]

13 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

If that's the case, the rational move is to think very hard as to whether an insurgency is worth it. A second best is arguably better than turning all your cities into piles of ember. You can blame the Russians. I can blame the Russians. But the city in ashes will be Ukrainian. 

And as such, its the Ukranians who will make the decision to keep on fighting or not. Not us. As of now, they seem to have decided to defend their homes from foreign occupation. Its our responsability then, as their suppossed allies, to support them