How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

 

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Like perhaps @The_Capt should write a letter to the Ukrainian general staff collating his thoughts, when they are less busy with the fighting in the East (where I think the "command capacity" of the Ukrainian army is being applied).

I was kinda hoping they could tell me what is happening to be honest.  From a human being standpoint every minute of this war has been a horror show.  From a professional military standpoint every minute of this was has been a fascinating horror show.  I say this with no small amount of guilt but I chose the red-handed path far too long ago to flinch away now. 

I think we are all watching to see how the Ukrainian Doctrine works on the offense.  I am not sure how much is "slow" and how much is "deliberate" at this point.  I also suspect that there is a lot of collective learning and adaptation happening right now.  We saw hints of this in Mosul, as light/SF forces would push to contact and then "stonk" forces would come forward when the enemy was "Found and Fixed".

In this war, I am thinking we might see more "Isolate, Find, Fix" then stonk.  The tempo and pace of that action will be a key indicator of where offensive action may be heading.  On the downside you still basically have hybrid forces for the most part, or at least until the UA figures the time is right for conventional mass; however, the Russians have taught all one thing, use conventional mass carefully.  So hybrid forces do not normally move with the speed and tempo of large conventional ones, it is one of the reasons we look down on them as a "poor mans force".

What hybrid forces do have, particularly in this war, is more freedom of movement.  That and a very high level of self-synchronicity which is a big plus for tempo as it becomes decentralized.  A guy named Antoine Bousquet wrote about "chaoplexic" warfare, a war on the seam between chaos and complexity, and hinted at a lot of what Ukrainian forces appear to be doing, whilst the Russian forces were more rigidly adhering to our old solution.  I think we can all agree how the defensive phase for Ukrainian forces went, I am going to be watching closely as the offensive phase occurs. But it is probably way too early to draw any solid conclusions.

[Commanderski]

I saw this on several sites. I don't know if this has been verified or if the Russian commander was "helped" in this matter:   Russian tank regiment commander killed himself ‘after finding out 90% of tanks held in reserve were unusable because parts had been stolen’, claims Ukrainian intelligence"

Here's a link to one of the articles: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10655501/Ukraine-claims-Russian-tank-commander-killed-reserve-tanks-unserivcable.html

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

We controlled 80 % of Irpin', two days ago Russians conducted an attempt to expand own zone of control and launched attacks from three sides. Looks like their atatck has finished with their final expulsion from the town.

On eastern direction from Kyiv, Russians switched from Brovary direction on Boryspil (there is largest airport of Ukraine near this town). This night and the morning their probes were repelled. Today this photo appeared with "UKR tankers inspect two captured T-72B3 in Kyiv oblast", Judging on terraine and "O" marking, this is east from Kyiv, but I don't know when and what place

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Looks like Stugna-Ps working in pairs:

 

[akd]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We controlled 80 % of Irpin', two days ago Russians comducted attempt to expand own zone of control and launched attacks from three sides. Looks like their atatck has finished with their final expilsion from the town.

On eastern direction from Kyiv, Russians switched from Brovary direction on Boryspil (there is largest airport of Ukraine ner this town). This night and the morning their probes were repelled. Today this photo appeared with "UKR tankers inspect two captured T-72B3 in Kyiv oblast", Judging on terraine and "O" marking, this is east from Kyiv, but I don't know when and what place

Looks like same location:

 

[Hapless]

Not sure what's going on in this one, but I'm sure it's stupid:

Longer video towards the end of this https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-reportaz-z-prvni-linie-pohled-do-hlavni-domobrany-a-s-pistoli-proti-tanku-195688 Looks like they were getting an RPG-18 ready and then the guy in black decided to close assault it with a pistol.

On the one hand, seems easily staged. Dedicated cameraman, key character all in black so he's easily tracked, hard to tell exactly what's going on, BMP doesn't have it's engine running etc etc

On the other hand... apparently Russian basic tactical skills as demonstrated over the last month.

[A Canadian Cat]

14 hours ago, CAZmaj said:

What is a "back up command group"?

I took it to mean the equivalent of 2IC or XO.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

37 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like same location:

 

Yeak looks similar, but Lukyanivka ???

That can´t possibly be the case?

Lukyanivka Map - Ukraine - Mapcarta

 

 

[Sarjen]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

Any reading skills on this forum to verify that?

 

 

[Erwin]

This good news for Ukrainian negotiating position.  However, am still thinking that Russia's aim is to maintain the Crimea land bridge to claim a "victory" and all else is distraction.  Mariupol must be captured for Russia to claim a victory.  So, if Ukraine can keep fighting there it will get Stalingrad-level bloody.

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, IanL said:

I took it to mean the equivalent of 2IC or XO.

Yes, wasn't using good terminology. Obviously every military unit has a chain of command, and an executive officer who is of course designated to take over from the commanding officer if something unfortunate happens. The unfortunate thing happens the next most senior officer in the unit more or less automatically becomes the XO, rinse and repeat. It is still VERY disruptive for units to experience a change of command due to combat. even more if it not just some sort of precision strike on the command group but part of unit wide losses in combat. Also the (acting) commander's radio operator and senior NCO are also removed you have the entire process of getting the unit up to speed on what radio/ comms platform is now issuing valid orders. There is no evidence the Russians are good at anything with radios.

For a captain to be doing a colonels job, one of two things has happened. Either the unit got hit so hard the CO and XO bought it in the same strike, or the CO and XO have been taken out sequentially as the unit has continued to fight/manuever. For the third officer in line to wind up in command BAD things have been happening. If that third officer in line is tasked with anything other than withdrawing from active combat to reorganize and reset VERY BAD things are happening. For the third officer in line to get KIA while commanding a unit means either the unit couldn't be withdrawn successfully, or higher command need to keep it in the fight even after things gone comepletely off the rails. The three most obvious guesses as to the condition of that unit after the death of the third commanding officer in the chain of command are bad, worse, and never mind.

Edited March 28, 2022 by dan/california

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

30 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeak looks similar, but Lukyanivka ???

That can´t possibly be the case?

Lukyanivka Map - Ukraine - Mapcarta

 

No, this is a village Lukyanivka in 45 km from eastern Kyiv city limit  

There is a male name Lukyan, from which derived both names - a village (and many other villages with the same name) and historiacal name of the part of Kyiv.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

31 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeak looks similar, but Lukyanivka ???

That can´t possibly be the case?

Lukyanivka Map - Ukraine - Mapcarta

 

 

No, here:

https://mapcarta.com/29401286

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, this is a village Lukyanivka in 45 km from eastern Kyiv city limit  

There is a male name Lukyan, from which derived both names - a village (and many other villages with the same name) and historiacal name of the part of Kyiv.

 

1 minute ago, akd said:

No, here:

https://mapcarta.com/29401286

Thanks guys. So it is google maps and mapcarta not showing that village. Both show the same part of Kyiv between old Kyiv and Baby Yar when searching for Lukyanivka and I thought: Nope that is impossible.

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

If Bellingcat's reporting it, it happened. The WSJ article says they believe it was "hardliners" in Moscow trying to throw off the talks. Absolute nonsense. Russian policy is top to bottom frightfulness to coerce and this is of a piece. The only real lesson here is that the oligarchs, up to and including the most powerful, are expendable. 

Edited March 28, 2022 by billbindc

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

So it is google maps and mapcarta not showing that village.

You should type Luk'yanivka, then Google Maps find it. Though, this is incorrect writing. Lukyanivka should be correct. I don't know why English version use this starnge spelling and why they use the spelling Lukyanivka for the same name of Kyiv location.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

4 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Depending on the phrasing here this is a funny compromise. Neutrality secured by other nations that can stand up to Russia? So....... The United States?

At the rate Russia is wrecking it's army and economy I think Monaco will qualify.  

[Kinophile]

Ref the Captain as BTT CO, above...I keep following the mental thread of just how bad could things be for the Russians in certain units. 

If you think further, there's yet another layer of "Well, She's All Facked Up Now" to this.

There's multiple Capts in a battalion, and they absolutely are not all equal in ability or experience, with a formal seniority and an internal, ability-based seniority. So once the Btt CO/XO are pancaked you step up the most experienced and able guy, right?

But now that the repl. Captain is another a crater in the ground, so who's next?

Well if your C&C is getting whacked again and again I bet the rest of the Btt officer core is also getting ground down. So the pool of available, non-dead/bleedy "talent" is now a shrinking puddle.

Comrad Capt. WhatsHisBloodyNamovich of the Motor Pool? The arschlock who stole all the handwarmers during the January deployments? That guy?

Let's take an "Operational Pause" here, a few KM back...Like, ALLLL the way back...

Edited March 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[kraze]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Looks like same location:

 

It's a different location. Check the grass and the rear tank. On your photo it has commander's shield. Also you can clearly see they all are in different positions on the road between the two photos.

So yeah it's 2 times 2 captured tanks.

We just have a lot of roads like that.

Edited March 28, 2022 by kraze

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If Bellingcat's reporting it, it happened. The WSJ article says they believe it was "hardliners" in Moscow trying to throw off the talks. Absolute nonsense. Russian policy is top to bottom frightfulness to coerce and this is of a piece. The only real lesson here is that the oligarchs, up to and including the most powerful, are expendable. 

The real lesson here is Biden was right, Putin has to go.