How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

38 minutes ago, acrashb said:

The King, the Mice and the Cheese

That story is classic example I use in engineering where we keep pasting on fixes to fixes to fixes.....

[Sgt Joch]

2 hours ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Well sure you have the twitter algorithm tuned to show you furry cats and cute babes. People that were using it for politics see a significant difference. People who don't have an account can see it too. People who study social media and or political engagement have documented it.

Everyone is glad you still get your fix of puppies and kitties - that is awesome truly it is.

Twitter is Twitter, look at it, don’t look at it, take it seriously, don’t take it seriously. Honestly could not care less…

p.s. - I have ZERO interest in wasting my time discussing Twitter so please everyone leave me out of this silly debate. If you guys want to spend time convincing yourselves that Musk will throw the election to the Big Bad Orange Man (tm), do it amongst yourselves.

p.s.2 - Trudeau voter? 

Edited September 4 by Sgt Joch

[fry30]

Wow, fast day today with all the posts 

Edited September 4 by fry30

[Battlefront.com]

I'm coming late to the party.  I have a few things that I think need to be said...

It concerns me that someone views being critical of an American politician or political party is "anti-American".  Anybody thinking that needs to take a really, really hard look at their internal belief systems OR how they express them.  Because there is nothing MORE American than engaging in critical discourse.

Also, if both US political parties and/or both candidates for US President were equally supportive of Ukraine then I would suggest the topic of US politics would not repeatedly come up here. Similarly, if both sides of the political divide in other countries were equally supportive of Ukraine, their national politics wouldn't come up where either.  Sadly, that is not the case in the US, nor is it true in the other Western democracies.  I'm sorry if people can't handle the fact that the leaders of their preferred political stance are not fully supportive of Ukraine, but it is what it is.  Burying heads in sand or trying to trash the other side doesn't change the well factual documentation of how things are playing out.

Steve

(BTW, it will likely amuse those here who are on the right side of the spectrum that I consider myself, historically speaking, solidly right of center on most issues.  I certainly don't know left of center people with 2000 military uniforms, 20ish firearms, and a lifetime profession of studying warfare )

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

(BTW, it will likely amuse those here who are on the right side of the spectrum that I consider myself, historically speaking, solidly right of center on most issues.  I certainly don't know left of center people with 2000 military uniforms, 20ish firearms, and a lifetime profession of studying warfare )

Dunno about studying warfare, but for firearm's there's these guys:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Rifle_Association

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Pistols

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redneck_Revolt

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Compare this map to the one I posted last week showing (rough) Uke defensive lines. Not dramatic gains, but gains nonetheless.

And if they're indeed in Hrodivka, they've leapfrogged the stream/balka barrier (begging the question of whether such terrain features even matter in post-mech warfare -- I am no longer sure tbh) and are into the Pokrovsk defensive belt.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russians-likely-captured-novohrodivka-halytsynivka-near-pokrovsk-50448205.html

*****

Butusov has been quiet lately, but his last missive (24 Aug) was not optimistic.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/donbas-cities-may-soon-fall-butusov-warns-of-critical-situation-radio-nv-50445367.html

So about that 'shell famine' and shoddy Nork ammo, etc. One photo never made a spring and all that, but.... CollapseTM seems as far away now as ever.

 

More grim assessments, from Kastehelmi (1 Sep).

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1830251231358718238.html

Simply put, the Ukrainian defenders don’t seem to be in full control of the situation. Ukrainian sources are speaking about multiple simultaneous issues, such as lack of manpower and ammo, problems with coordination, failed rotations, bad leadership and so on. 

Fortifications have so far failed to stop the Russian advance.... a network of trenches, anti-tank obstacles and strongpoints on tactically good terrain.... are not enough, if sufficient manpower and supporting elements are not present when they’re needed.... There have been rumours about more [UA] reserves being sent to Pokrovsk.

Something really seems to have changed in this attrition war, and my best guess is it's on the UKR side.

...On the plus side, Perpetua's map shows yet another Russian column getting shot/droned to rags on a road due west of Donetsk. 

Bigger picture:

1. Substantially all the large RU offensives since Bahmut have been within 30km of the Donetsk railhead, so logistically 'easy' to sustain and command, vs. say, their ham handed attacks around Izium and above Kherson in summer 2022.

2. So if they're now picking up 10 square kms of open farmland per day cuz the Ukes can't man bunker lines anymore, that creates longer lines for them, which will be subject to whatever passes for interdiction in the drone era.

3. Question is: what is the UA's capacity now to tear up those longer lines badly enough to halt the overall offensive as the weather turns squishy and cold?

Edited September 4 by LongLeftFlank

[Holien]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rx28v1vpro

Russia is trying to ensure someone gets into power.

Quote

The US has charged and sanctioned Russian state media executives and restricted Kremlin-linked broadcasters as it accused Moscow of a widespread campaign to interfere with the presidential election.

 

Edited September 4 by Holien

[Général_Hiver]

1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said:

Twitter is Twitter, look at it, don’t look at it, take it seriously, don’t take it seriously. Honestly could not care less…

p.s. - I have ZERO interest in wasting my time discussing Twitter so please everyone leave me out of this silly debate. If you guys want to spend time convincing yourselves that Musk will throw the election to the Big Bad Orange Man (tm), do it amongst yourselves.

p.s.2 - Trudeau voter? 

You can minimise the 'Big Bad Orange Man' all you like, but in the most generous interpretation possible, he cheerfully encouraged a mob to descend on the Capitol.

[LongLeftFlank]

Hmm, at this point I'm really tempted to go find a new thread someplace, since nobody here can stop yammering about US politix, our host included.

Hey brother @Erwin, you got a few crappy American beers left in the fridge over there? Just no more goddamn Pilsners (unless they're actually Czech).

Or maybe we can blow the dust off the old Ramadi thread in the unvisited CM1 corner, drink a toast to old Squarehead, and fight some civilised MOUT.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, at this point I'm really tempted to go find a new thread someplace, since nobody here can stop yammering about US politix, our host included.

It comes and goes.  Always has since this thread started.  At least the German posters here are probably happy we haven't spent the last 10 pages tearing their government a new one

That said, there does seem to be more interesting things to talk about, so hopefully we can do that.

Steve

[Général_Hiver]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hmm, at this point I'm really tempted to go find a new thread someplace, since nobody here can stop yammering about US politix, our host included.

Hey brother @Erwin, you got a few crappy American beers left in the fridge over there? Just no more goddamn Pilsners (unless they're actually Czech).

Or maybe we can blow the dust off the old Ramadi thread in the unvisited CM1 corner, drink a toast to old Squarehead, and fight some civilised MOUT.

 

 

For what it's worth, it gives me no pleasure either.

 

Edited September 4 by Général_Hiver

[Kraft]

Quote

Employees of Russian State-Controlled Media Outlet Deployed Nearly $10 Million to Publish RT-Curated Content, Which Garnered Millions of Views

Quote

[They] co-opted online commentators by funneling them nearly $10 million to pump pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation across social media to U.S. audiences.

Which online commentators could be meant??

Quote

For example, after the March 22, 2024, terrorist attack on a music venue in Moscow, Afanasyeva asked one of U.S. Company-1’s founders to blame Ukraine and the United States for the attack, writing: “I think we can focus on the Ukraine/U.S. angle. . . . [T]he mainstream media spread fake news that ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack yet ISIS itself never made such statements. All terrorists are now detained while they were heading to the border with Ukraine which makes it even more suspicious why they would want to go to Ukraine to hide.” 

Just random selection, dozens of tweets like this. The highest viewed one sits at almost 4 million.

The following are on a direct payroll (TENET Media). All of these have twitter/.. accounts millions of followers, anti-Ukraine, pro-Trump, mostly pro-Gaza

A drop in the bucket.

But I guess russian putin close oligarch sons financing Musks overtaking of twitter, which then ended up being the jumping board for these grifters is total coincidence. 

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-rt-employees-indicted-covertly-funding-and-directing-us-company-published-thousands

 

Edited September 4 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Something really seems to have changed in this attrition war, and my best guess is it's on the UKR side.

...On the plus side, Perpetua's map shows yet another Russian column getting shot/droned to rags on a road due west of Donetsk. 

Bigger picture:

1. Substantially all the large RU offensives since Bahmut have been within 30km of the Donetsk railhead, so logistically 'easy' to sustain and command, vs. say, their ham handed attacks around Izium and above Kherson in summer 2022.

2. So if they're now picking up 10 square kms of open farmland per day cuz the Ukes can't man bunker lines anymore, that creates longer lines for them, which will be subject to whatever passes for interdiction in the drone era.

3. Question is: what is the UA's capacity now to tear up those longer lines badly enough to halt the overall offensive as the weather turns squishy and cold?

This is the first Russian "breakthrough" since early summer of 2022 that hasn't been stopped in its tracks this far after taking a key point on the map.  So something appears to be different.

I don't think Russian skills have gotten significantly better relative to Ukraine's.  We've also seen Ukraine with bad leadership, poorly dug in troops, shell shortages, etc. and still managed to stall out Russia's advances. So I think Ukraine's manpower shortage is the biggest factor at play here.

You're not the only one that's posted analysis relevant to the war only to see it not get traction.  Here's what I said 19 hours ago:

 

Steve

[danfrodo]

42 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

More grim assessments, from Kastehelmi (1 Sep).

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1830251231358718238.html

Simply put, the Ukrainian defenders don’t seem to be in full control of the situation. Ukrainian sources are speaking about multiple simultaneous issues, such as lack of manpower and ammo, problems with coordination, failed rotations, bad leadership and so on. 

Fortifications have so far failed to stop the Russian advance.... a network of trenches, anti-tank obstacles and strongpoints on tactically good terrain.... are not enough, if sufficient manpower and supporting elements are not present when they’re needed.... There have been rumours about more [UA] reserves being sent to Pokrovsk.

Something really seems to have changed in this attrition war, and my best guess is it's on the UKR side.

...On the plus side, Perpetua's map shows yet another Russian column getting shot/droned to rags on a road due west of Donetsk. 

Bigger picture:

1. Substantially all the large RU offensives since Bahmut have been within 30km of the Donetsk railhead, so logistically 'easy' to sustain and command, vs. say, their ham handed attacks around Izium and above Kherson in summer 2022.

2. So if they're now picking up 10 square kms of open farmland per day cuz the Ukes can't man bunker lines anymore, that creates longer lines for them, which will be subject to whatever passes for interdiction in the drone era.

3. Question is: what is the UA's capacity now to tear up those longer lines badly enough to halt the overall offensive as the weather turns squishy and cold?

It just aint stoppin', dang, this is getting serious.  If UKR spent all it's reserves in the kursk attack assuming RU would throw everything up there and stop attacking, and UKR is wrong, then now what?  

[LongLeftFlank]

Yup Steve, that was well noted, thanks.

I didn't actually quote Butusov when I linked to him above, but I will go back to his OpEd piece from June.  Being aware of course that he is an 'Ernie Pyle' frontline journalist and likes to speak for the common squaddie... who himself often doesn't see the Big Picture, but other times may be seeing critical parts of it far more clearly than anyone else.

https://english.nv.ua/opinion/the-reason-for-ukraine-s-military-failures-opinion-50424528.html

1. The changes in Ukraine’s military at the tactical level, at the bottom, are taking place rapidly, while changes in tactics, understanding, and awareness of tactics at the highest level are very much lagging behind.

2.  Our military assesses its performance based on territory held [i.e. 'watchman generals']. This is a big problem.

3.  The destruction of the enemy and the preservation of personnel should be paramount. Territory, dots on a map are just tools, like ammunition, to best complete these tasks.

So this all rings true to me (the wargamer), but can Ukraine pull a fluid defence off without essentially abandoning linear fronts and reverting to hybrid partisan warfare? And I suspect that is all a LOT harder now in the FPV drone era, even against a battered Russia.

Bonus thought: is it possible the Russian BTG concept might work better today, with drone screens, than it did back in 2022? (although those fuel trucks are even more vulnerable than they were before)

...As I noted before, I think the VDV regiments are going to return to the field soon, and they might be using some evolution of this concept to create some 'bubble' in which to 'mass' (that's company scale, not squad scale assaults).

Edited September 4 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Some indications that Ukraine shot down the F-16 that crashed last week:

https://news.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-faces-rising-questions-over-064830110.html

And the Armenia situation is apparently getting worse for Russia's traditional security in its Near Abroad:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-longtime-russian-ally-says-it-s-frozen-its-participation-in-putin-s-nato-at-all-levels-after-a-year-of-snubs/ar-AA1pRqVS?cvid=2fc1e7c094414310a2c910d9c110edfc&ei=40

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

It just aint stoppin', dang, this is getting serious.  If UKR spent all it's reserves in the kursk attack assuming RU would throw everything up there and stop attacking, and UKR is wrong, then now what?  

Then they just declare 'point made', withdraw and redeploy. Nothing special is holding them in Kursk oblast, other than perhaps keeping Sumy city out of Grad rocket range.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yup Steve, that was well noted, thanks.

I didn't actually quote Butusov when I linked to him above, but I will go back to his OpEd piece from June.  Being aware of course that he is an 'Ernie Pyle' frontline journalist and likes to speak for the common squaddie... who himself often doesn't see the Big Picture, but other times may be seeing critical parts of it far more clearly than anyone else.

https://english.nv.ua/opinion/the-reason-for-ukraine-s-military-failures-opinion-50424528.html

1. The changes in Ukraine’s military at the tactical level, at the bottom, are taking place rapidly, while changes in tactics, understanding, and awareness of tactics at the highest level are very much lagging behind.

2.  Our military assesses its performance based on territory held [i.e. 'watchman generals']. This is a big problem.

3.  The destruction of the enemy and the preservation of personnel should be paramount. Territory, dots on a map are just tools, like ammunition, to best complete these tasks.

So this all rings true to me (the wargamer), but can Ukraine pull a fluid defence off without essentially abandoning linear fronts and reverting to hybrid partisan warfare? And I suspect that is all a LOT harder now in the FPV drone era, even against a battered Russia.

Bonus thought: is it possible the Russian BTG concept might work better today, with drone screens, than it did back in 2022? (although those fuel trucks are even more vulnerable than they were before)

There's almost always some truth to what a decent low level squaddie observes at the front or through direct frontline sources.  It should never be fully dismissed, though also never taken as the be-all-end-all take on matters.  The discussion a page or two ago about a YouTuber fits into that as well.

The problem is that on the ground it is very hard to imagine it is worth dying to defend a tree or a ditch on the side of a road.  Very hard.  And when there's lots of deaths in lots of ditches and shattered trees, the criticism scales upwards.  Yet that is, basically, what warfare boils down to.  This is the sort of discussion that drives "maneuverists" crazy, because their answer to this nasty situation is to "just drive around it".  Well, that doesn't really work out so well in reality.

The big debate about Bakhmut was, and probably will be for the rest of the war, the biggest example of this debate.  "Pull back and save lives" was one position and that certainly has merit to explore.  However, the bigger picture must be used to judge to what extent this position was even realistic and, more importantly, what the long term impact would be of pulling back every time Russia massed an offensive force.  Maneuvering to the rear has consequences too.

I still don't know what to think of all of this.  I tend to favor defenses that yield a disproportionately favorable exchange of casualties with the enemy.  But it certainly is hard to justify that strategy if the end result is nobody left to defend with.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There's almost always some truth to what a decent low level squaddie observes at the front or through direct frontline sources.  It should never be fully dismissed, though also never taken as the be-all-end-all take on matters.  The discussion a page or two ago about a YouTuber fits into that as well.

The problem is that on the ground it is very hard to imagine it is worth dying to defend a tree or a ditch on the side of a road.  Very hard.  And when there's lots of deaths in lots of ditches and shattered trees, the criticism scales upwards.  Yet that is, basically, what warfare boils down to.  This is the sort of discussion that drives "maneuverists" crazy, because their answer to this nasty situation is to "just drive around it".  Well, that doesn't really work out so well in reality.

The big debate about Bakhmut was, and probably will be for the rest of the war, the biggest example of this debate.  "Pull back and save lives" was one position and that certainly has merit to explore.  However, the bigger picture must be used to judge to what extent this position was even realistic and, more importantly, what the long term impact would be of pulling back every time Russia massed an offensive force.  Maneuvering to the rear has consequences too.

I still don't know what to think of all of this.  I tend to favor defenses that yield a disproportionately favorable exchange of casualties with the enemy.  But it certainly is hard to justify that strategy if the end result is nobody left to defend with.

Steve

Sure, but contrast that with Napoleon's dictum (crudely recalled): destroy the enemy army and everything else takes care of itself.

[Général_Hiver]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, but contrast that with Napoleon's dictum (crudely recalled): destroy the enemy army and everything else takes care of itself.

Napoleon was a masterful tactician (he's my bloody icon for goodness sake) but an appalling strategist. There's a reason he lost.

[Centurian52]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

on the ground it is very hard to imagine it is worth dying to defend a tree or a ditch on the side of a road.  Very hard.  And when there's lots of deaths in lots of ditches and shattered trees, the criticism scales upwards.  Yet that is, basically, what warfare boils down to.  This is the sort of discussion that drives "maneuverists" crazy, because their answer to this nasty situation is to "just drive around it".  Well, that doesn't really work out so well in reality.

The big debate about Bakhmut was, and probably will be for the rest of the war, the biggest example of this debate.  "Pull back and save lives" was one position and that certainly has merit to explore.  However, the bigger picture must be used to judge to what extent this position was even realistic and, more importantly, what the long term impact would be of pulling back every time Russia massed an offensive force.  Maneuvering to the rear has consequences too.

Every decision has consequences. Pulling back may save lives. But it may also mean losing ground that will be costly to retake, or losing a chance to grind down the enemy. The way I see it the trick, as Jack Aubrey would put it, is to choose the lesser of two weevils.

Edited September 4 by Centurian52

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Every decision has consequences. Pulling back may save lives. But it may also mean losing ground that will be costly to retake, or losing a chance to grind down the enemy. The way I see it the trick, as Jack Aubrey would put it, is to choose the lesser of two weevils.

Braaaavo!     

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, Général_Hiver said:

Napoleon was a masterful tactician (he's my bloody icon for goodness sake) but an appalling strategist. There's a reason he lost.

Sure, and I am not suggesting we should resurrect Napoleon using ChatGPT and put him in charge.

But I appreciate Butusov's (and Tararigami's) contention that far too much UA blood has been spilt (by Red Army educated generals) holding territory for its own sake when  ceding some may have preserved the force to kill more of the enemy. 

....I can't prove decisively that it's true of course, but the current Ukrainian approach seems no longer to be sustainable for them.

Edited September 4 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

9 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

American politics is incredibly important in this war.

True, but

9 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

American military aid (with notable contributions from our NATO allies) has kept Ukraine in this war.

A little humility would serve some of our US forumites quite well.  
Europe is roughly on par with the US in military aid and well ahead in total aid:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

It's not a competition, so no point in nitpicking. Just saying.

Edited September 4 by Butschi

[Fenris]

Don't recall seeing one of these actually being used against the enemy before.  Not the best quality, makes it pretty impossible to see if it has any effect.

Quote

Ukrainian Wild Hornets FPV drones with an automatic gun attached, attacking Russian positions.