How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The power plants are oil-fired facilities, and I'd expect they're either peakers (only run during peak demand periods) or else dedicated to powering (older) industrial facilities. Fuel-oil is quite expensive, even in Russia, so it wouldn't be baseload power. That wasn't always the case of course, hence the huge nameplate size of these plants.

Ergo, I wouldn't count on these strikes putting the lights out in Metro Moscow; some rolling brownouts perhaps, if it's very warm weather.

Don't put the lights out, put out the heat.

Come next winter, Ukraine should blitz the russian heating plants that provide the central heating systems in cities with  pressurized hot water during the first serious cold spell.

Due to lack of maintenance it's already a regular occurrence in russia that these systems fail occasionally during winter, which results in central heating pipes in commie blocks first freezing and then bursting when ice expands in them. That's a big mess to clean up, causes a lot of damage to buildings, and it's hard to stand living in a flat without heating when it's -20C outside - sure, you can run an electric heater and ignore the bill that racks up for the moment, until everyone in the neighborhood does the same and the wires in the wall start smoking ... and in a commie block you're unlikely to have wood or coal fired backup heat sources.

Do that to a million people in leningrad, another million in moscow, and see if the czar's throne totters.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, mosuri said:

Don't put the lights out, put out the heat.

Come next winter, Ukraine should blitz the russian heating plants that provide the central heating systems in cities with  pressurized hot water during the first serious cold spell.

Due to lack of maintenance it's already a regular occurrence in russia that these systems fail occasionally during winter, which results in central heating pipes in commie blocks first freezing and then bursting when ice expands in them. That's a big mess to clean up, causes a lot of damage to buildings, and it's hard to stand living in a flat without heating when it's -20C outside - sure, you can run an electric heater and ignore the bill that racks up for the moment, until everyone in the neighborhood does the same and the wires in the wall start smoking ... and in a commie block you're unlikely to have wood or coal fired backup heat sources.

Do that to a million people in leningrad, another million in moscow, and see if the czar's throne totters.

Sauce for the damned goose.

The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Todays drone attacks were also matched with Cyber warfare attacks. I wonder if the Ukrainians are seeking to make it clear they can ruin just as much infrastructure as the Russians despite the capability gap. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Further post to that effect. 

[LongLeftFlank]

The new Kremlinology:  just as predicted in early 2022 by Galeev, under pressure Putin's inner circle grows ever tighter and tighter, in the ancient absolutist tradition.

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/meet-dmitry-mironov-the-enigmatic-putin-aide-managing-the-kremlins-hr-department

"Those guys are not efficient in terms of professional services except for serving as bodyguards, but what is more important, they are absolutely controlled by him....”

Another former bodyguard once described the president’s adjutants to a Russian newspaper as “a select caste of people....

"His trust in the guards was shaped in part by their years of physical proximity."

According to Petrov, an “adjutant can serve [as] a moderator to convey [the] president’s orders and to track their implementation.”

“Through this commission, any appointments can be stopped....”

****

(Galeev 2023) On 'Access to the Body.'

"My grandfather did not sell the pancakes,
Did not blacken the Tsar's shoes,
Did not sing in the court chorus,
Did not jump into princes from the khokhols...

... So how can I be an aristocrat?"

Putin and Kirienko descend from Lenin's assabiyah. Their ancestors were minor, servant-status members of the assabiyah, serving food to Lenin's table. But  members nonetheless.

According to Ibn Khaldun, an assabiyah typically lives for four generations: from the conquest to the downfall. It very, very rarely outlives this span.

****

P.S.  Good luck to VVP's newest Martin Bormann in detecting and stopping this kind of thing....

https://www.occrp.org/en/news/russian-prosecutors-arrest-state-nuclear-official

“Stopping and conducting full scale checks of reactors where equipment from ZiO-Podolsk has been installed is absolutely necessary,” 

Edited September 1 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

its very unfortunate that the Russian civilian population has to suffer, but...considering the ample suffering placed on Ukraine, it is a expected outcome. 

Quote

Overnight, Ukrainian forces mounted one of the largest and most successful drone attacks on Russia's Moscow area since the beginning of the war. Ukrainian drones successfully hit the Moscow Oil Refinery, Konakovo Power Station, and Kashira Power Station.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Ouch

[Kraft]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

In Germany today is the beginning of the Russian-financed fascist takeover in Thuringia, and Saxonia and other eastern states will likely follow and turn Germany into as much of a drag on NATO and Ukraine as the locked congress in America was. 

Trump is not Putin's only willing stooge. He has his finger in the pockets of many parties in the West

Since these elections were given as a realpolitic reason why Taurus is being blocked, Id expect to hear good news soon.

/s.

[Bufo]

Drone based improvised mines:

Edited September 1 by Bufo

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1f6neza/continuation_of_ukrainian_tank_destroying_btr_and/

Continuation of my last post, the AFU tank closed in and finished off what was left of the Russian infantry from the BTR unit.  

[Carolus]

41 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Since these elections were given as a realpolitic reason why Taurus is being blocked, Id expect to hear good news soon.

/s.

Also, Rybar is celebrating the elections in Germany like a military victory.

 

 

[Fenris]

This is interesting if true (anything with bombshell or explosive in the title is often click bait).

Quote

The Swiss Ministry of Defense has recommended reconsidering Switzerland's neutrality, which has been maintained for 500 years. The recommendation is driven by the worsening situation in Europe due to "Putin, money, and weapons," urging Switzerland to explore deeper military cooperation with NATO and the EU.

 

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

This is interesting if true (anything with bombshell or explosive in the title is often click bait).

 

Putin remains a Master Strategist ... achieving something even Hitler couldn't do!

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

This is interesting if true 

I think it's accurate:

https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/swiss-report-suggests-500-years-neutrality-could-be-ditched-nato-co-operation

Having said that, it's a recommendation from a working group, and such things may or may not go anywhere.

 

[Fenris]

Clip released, said to be the pontoon bridge at Seym being bombarded.

Edit - another clip posted today, more bridging equipment destroyed on the way to the Seym.

 

Edited September 2 by Fenris

[sburke]

that is a lot of bridging equipment being lost in this fight.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Clip released, said to be the pontoon bridge at Seym being bombarded.

Edit - another clip posted today, more bridging equipment destroyed on the way to the Seym.

 

My wife looked over my shoulder as I was watching these videos.  She said, and I quote nearly verbatim, "didn't they learn that doesn't work?"  Yes folks, my wife seems to have a better grasp of military strategy than the Russian MoD does.  Though that isn't saying much.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Bufo said:

Drone based improvised mines:

Those look like AP mines.  I'm not sure that's really an effective concept since soldiers are likely to spot them before triggering.  AT mines, on the other hand, are a different story completely.

Steve

[Eug85]

7 hours ago, Carolus said:

Also, Rybar is celebrating the elections in Germany like a military victory.

 

 

Following America, Europe is gradually experiencing a polarization of society. Similar events recently took place in France, but the cunning Macron managed to neutralize the successes of the right-wing forces.

Very strange. The German participants of this forum insisted that the victory of the AfD was extremely unlikely.

[Vlad]

Hello guys,

I've decided to finally register here on the forums. I came over here from BGG forums, where someone has put up a link to this monster of a thread and being the masochist I am, I started reading from the beginning. Currently around page 720 but oh boy, it's been a blast from the past- initial onslaught, Ukrainian tractors, sinking of Moskva, discoveries around Bucha, etc. Added to that plenty of additional insight from many of you guys made it an interesting experience, even with plenty of informations I haven't seen elsewhere - be it info directly from Ukraine, or people with military experience providing their POV. My only info about the wa...*ahem* "special military operation" was from one Czech Facebook page compiling the OSINT into daily reports.

 

Anyways, here's my contribution to this thread:

I'm from Slovakia, so neighboring Ukraine, in fact I live about 10 kms (~6miles?) from UA border. In a country, where russian intelligence did a damn good job of polarising the public. We have plenty of people either believing the Russian narrative, actively pushing it (including several members of our Parliament) or even being on Kremlin's payroll (IIRC some German journalists provided a list of people payed by a Russian oligarch, which included one former MoP from a splinter of our  "we're not fascists, honestly" party). Heck, one of our "alternative media" "writers" got eavesdropped while meeting a Russian GRU (or FSB or whichever branch does this) agent who promised him 500€ for each new person he recruits.

It helped to sow a kind of war weariness in our population, which I see on my wife. She went from buying non-perishable food and giving stuff like old baby clothes, or baby carriage for the Ukrainian refugees to "those Ukrainians get this and that for free" over the time. It didn't turn her pro-Russian, just changed her perception of the situation.

 

In fact it has helped our former PM Róbert Fico back to power who rode the wave of pro-Russian sentiment to build a government. He is pretty much what you get when you order a crossbreed of Viktor Orbán and Silvio Berlusconi from Wish. Yes, he has pro-Russian and "pro-peace" rhetoric, but that's only because his opponents are for helping Ukraine.  If it was the other way around, he'd be selling everything including his underpants to help Ukraine. Hell, even on a meeting with Ukrainian government about two months ago he admitted that his pro-peace and pro-Russian rhetoric are just "for domestic audinece" and he didn't block any EU effort, in fact he contributed to it.

Alright, I won't bother you about inner politics of a meaningless little country anymore, back to reading. Those ~3k pages of discussion won't read themselves.  

Edited September 2 by Vlad
Typo

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, Vlad said:

Hello guys,

I've decided to finally register here on the forums. I came over here from BGG forums, where someone has put up a link to this monster of a thread and being the masochist I am, I started reading from the beginning.

welcome aboard.  Dang I'd kind of forgotten all the fun of tractor pics!

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Eug85 said:

Following America, Europe is gradually experiencing a polarization of society. Similar events recently took place in France, but the cunning Macron managed to neutralize the successes of the right-wing forces.

Very strange. The German participants of this forum insisted that the victory of the AfD was extremely unlikely.

The problem is the stellar rise of the BSW, which is another populist party but with a more strasserist / stalinist touch than the blood-and-soil AfD.

BSW is made up of by former SED members (the socialist ruling party of the GDR one-party state) and thus enjoys big admiration among East Germans, who idolize the time of soviet rule as an era without problems like climate change, gays and other things that cause them headaches when they try to think about them.

A lot depends now on how coalitions are now formed and what the other parties do. 

It is possible that the anti-constitutional views of the AfD could lead to a prohibition of the party, but that is a long and stony judicial path.

But until then, the two parties are a direct channel of information to Russia and China for whatever they can get their hands on within the German administration. 

In any case, I don't want to drag German regional politics too much into this thread, but it does affect Ukraine and is part of the overall hybrid-war of Russia against the West which the West mostly wags its finger at while losing one toe after another.

[Haiduk]

God save our AD crews and Raytheon company for their Patriot. About dozen ballistic missiles were intercepted during 5 minutes on N and NE approaches to Kyiv. It was too loud and... oouuch. A fragment of missile already was found on the lake park zone near our house. 

Also more than dozen Kh-101 have  attacked the city from S and W. All were intercepted too. Taking to account type of used missiles, the damage is minor - fragments of missiles damaged several buildings (including the mosque), burned four cars, two citizens were slightly wounded

It could be a deadliest strike, since May 2023, when 5 Kinzhals were launched on Kyiv. If we had't Patriot PAC 3, we would be suffer like Kharkiv and Sumy. Alas, we still have only one or two PAC 3 batteries

PS. Air Force Command statistic for this night and morning:

Enemy has launched:

14 Kh-101 - 13 intercepted, one likely crashed

1 unknown type of missile

4 S-300/400 - no interceptions (hit Kharkiv and Kharkiv oblast)

16 Iskander-M/KN-23 - 9 intercepted (Kyiv), rest hit Kharkiv and Sumy

23 Shaheds - 20 shot down, 3 likely suppressed by EW 

Edited September 2 by Haiduk

[Tux]

3 hours ago, Vlad said:

Alright, I won't bother you about inner politics of a meaningless little country anymore, back to reading. Those ~3k pages of discussion won't read themselves.  

Welcome to the thread and please don't apologise; I for one find this kind of first-hand narrative from the continent's smaller (but in no way meaningless!) countries really interesting.

There is more than one kind of tea leaf, out there.

[Vlad]

36 minutes ago, Tux said:

Welcome to the thread and please don't apologise; I for one find this kind of first-hand narrative from the continent's smaller (but in no way meaningless!) countries really interesting.

There is more than one kind of tea leaf, out there.

I just didn't want to clutter the thread by babbling about Slovak politics and general situation. In fact I could have made my previous post shorter. Sure, if there's interest then I can go deeper or anyone can send me a PM. However should I drift into Putin-like response from the Tucker Carlson interview ("you know, we have to start at the beginning, several centuries ago...."), then know that you've been warned - I'm not good at essays.