How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[omae2]

53 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I base my position in the explicit western policy to not get invovled with either air or ground forces in Ukraine unless

a) weapons of mass destruction are used by Russia

b) a member of NATO is attacked in a significant manner conventionally or nonconventionally

Until either a) or b) are fulfilled, not a single bullet will be fired at Russia, unless it comes from a Ukranian barrel.

In addition, a certain degree of international agreement among allies needs to exist for any single country to go ahead in any way beyond what is currently being agreed upon.

This is explicit, publicly stated policy by various heads od state as well as the NATO secretary general, as well as based on current international law.

If you have anything which would indicate that certain countries have changed their stance, that would be very interesting and I would like to ask you again to share that information.

All right. First of all you assume that the above mentioned things are some sort of a physical rule that cannot be broken. That ain't true, but there is no indication that anybody want to break them.

Secondly what i wrote is that there is no certainty in politics and if a hostile nation gather forces next to your border even if the above mentioned things are true you gonna react cause you don't know if this isn't the exception. Which is a speculation, that i firmly believe that is true.

Thirdly that was just my opinion that Poland should do a military exercise to threaten the Belorussian military so it think twice before getting involved in Ukraine considering the fact that they cannot really afford a mobilization cause then people who are oppose to the power would get access to weapons. That exercise would break no international law or would be a problem to any of the allies until Poland would decide to get into a war. Which of course it would not do. But i thing they should act like they would.

So your conclusion that the Belorussians would not react to such an imaginary exercise is a speculation. Cause you don't know, neither do i that they would. They definitely should if they are rational cause its a threat tho.

And because both of us just speculating on an imaginary exercise i said that it will yield no fruit and basically that's where we are now. Do you think we should pollute the thread further?

[danfrodo]

So would Belarus military actually go along with this?  Would the soldiers actually fight hard?  or would they rebel?  Or just hunker down and refuse to to into danger?  Does Belarus have enough ammo & material to actually launch something meaningful that wouldn't get easily destroyed?  Would it topple Lukashenko, putting yet another neighbor out of RU's direct control? -- now that would be putting Putin's military and political genius on full display yet again.

We know RU has taken a lot of Belarus' military resources, but we don't know what's left.  And we don't know willingness of the military or the population to sustaining casualties in an attack.  

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So would Belarus military actually go along with this?  Would the soldiers actually fight hard?  or would they rebel?  Or just hunker down and refuse to to into danger?  Does Belarus have enough ammo & material to actually launch something meaningful that wouldn't get easily destroyed?  Would it topple Lukashenko, putting yet another neighbor out of RU's direct control? -- now that would be putting Putin's military and political genius on full display yet again.

We know RU has taken a lot of Belarus' military resources, but we don't know what's left.  And we don't know willingness of the military or the population to sustaining casualties in an attack.  

We've been over this every previous time Belarus made saber rattling moves.  The basic equation has not changed, but I think due to Russia's robbing of Belarusian military resources they are even less able to actually do anything.

The entire might of the fresh Russian military did not make an incursion from Belarus work out to their ultimate benefit.  The thought that a Belorussian incursion, on its own and with no effective support from Russia ANYWHERE, is just laughable.

Also consider that the Russians slammed into the Kharkiv area against (mostly) TD units and even then made very little progress and it cost them dearly for what they did achieve.  The thought that the Belarusian military, that has never been in a military conflict in its entire history, is going to do better is just silly.

As for what might happen if Belarus actually tried something this stupid... I expect there would be a revolt at the front.  Units would just cease to be functional after taking the first wave of casualties that Ukraine would definitely be able to hand out.  And then what?  I don't know, but it would be very good for Ukraine and very bad for Russia whatever happened.

So... in summary... Belarus is not going to invade.  And if they did, this would be an awesomely GOOD thing for Ukraine. 

I say Ukraine should not do a damned thing about this supposed threat, other than put the TD units on higher alert than they normally are.  If Belarus decides to be stupid, there will be plenty of opportunity to respond and slap them silly.

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've been over this every previous time Belarus made saber rattling moves.  The basic equation has not changed, but I think due to Russia's robbing of Belarusian military resources they are even less able to actually do anything.

The entire might of the fresh Russian military did not make an incursion from Belarus work out to their ultimate benefit.  The thought that a Belorussian incursion, on its own and with no effective support from Russia ANYWHERE, is just laughable.

Also consider that the Russians slammed into the Kharkiv area against (mostly) TD units and even then made very little progress and it cost them dearly for what they did achieve.  The thought that the Belarusian military, that has never been in a military conflict in its entire history, is going to do better is just silly.

As for what might happen if Belarus actually tried something this stupid... I expect there would be a revolt at the front.  Units would just cease to be functional after taking the first wave of casualties that Ukraine would definitely be able to hand out.  And then what?  I don't know, but it would be very good for Ukraine and very bad for Russia whatever happened.

So... in summary... Belarus is not going to invade.  And if they did, this would be an awesomely GOOD thing for Ukraine. 

I say Ukraine should not do a damned thing about this supposed threat, other than put the TD units on higher alert than they normally are.  If Belarus decides to be stupid, there will be plenty of opportunity to respond and slap them silly.

Steve

yeah, what he said 

I worry about overconfidence but in this case optimism seems to be well founded.  Lukashenko is kinda like what Franco was probably thinking in ww2 -- 'I've got a great gig here and no one can touch me, why would I go and screw that up with a foreign war?'

[Probus]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It may feel good to blow up stuff in the backfield but unless that can be translated into actual corrosive effects on the battlefield

Hit the ballbearing plants!

[acrashb]

Hearts and minds:

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 236 missiles and UAVs today, including:

-3 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile

-6 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles

-77 Kh-101 cruise missiles

-28 Kalibr cruise missiles

-3 Kh-22 cruise missiles

-10 Kh-59 / Kh-69 air-to-surface missiles from Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft

-109 Shahed-131 / 136

https://t.me/kpszsu/18332

 

[Eug85]

New footage of helicopters fighting drones. Ukraine is using helicopters in this role more and more often.

[kraze]

On 8/25/2024 at 4:38 PM, billbindc said:

A *very* interesting arrest. Telegram is very heavily used by not just the Russian military but by overseas operations teams from the GRU, FSB, etc. While there is certainly some penetration by foreign sigint already, Durov's cooperation would represent a strategic overview of Russian government use that would likely have serious consequences. 

Durov is a FSB agent. I doubt there will be any cooperation except for some misleading statements.

Him getting prison time would've been major justice for all the crimes he committed incl. actively supporting and causing war crimes in Ukraine, but something tells me it won't happen as he will play the magical "russian opposition" card that people in the West keep falling for.

Edited August 26 by kraze

[Holien]

@kraze

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj35lk4x86yo

What do you think about this Russian?

Quote

Pavel Kushnir had protested repeatedly against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and began a hunger strike soon after his arrest in May, later refusing water too.

He died, slowly and without publicity, on 28 July - four days before a group of better-known dissidents were swapped for Kremlin spies, sleeper agents and killers imprisoned in the West.

 

Edited August 26 by Holien

[ArmouredTopHat]

*Graphic warning*

Seems Rusich have flat out murdered some Kadyrovites. This could get interesting...

[Eug85]

The ultranationalist group "Rusich" known for its executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Shared footage of the execution of Kadyrov's men. I did not post these photos because of their graphic nature. But this clearly demonstrates that there is hostility between individual groups in the Russian army.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

The ultranationalist group "Rusich" known for its executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Shared footage of the execution of Kadyrov's men. I did not post these photos because of their graphic nature. But this clearly demonstrates that there is hostility between individual groups in the Russian army.

This is the tip of the iceberg, as they say, about the murderous hostility that exists between ethnic Russians and Chechens.  Something like this could trigger a broader conflict between these armed extremists.  Even if it stays at a fairly contained for a while, it will likely build up to something bigger.  That's what happens when two violent Alpha male groups start offing each other.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, what he said 

I worry about overconfidence but in this case optimism seems to be well founded.  Lukashenko is kinda like what Franco was probably thinking in ww2 -- 'I've got a great gig here and no one can touch me, why would I go and screw that up with a foreign war?'

I forgot to add that Belarus doesn't have experienced "barrier" units at their disposal.  If they got any they would likely be Russian and that would most likely end up with some spectacular fighting in the rear.

But it's all daydreaming.  Belarus is not going to invade.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Does Belarus have enough ammo & material to actually launch something meaningful that wouldn't get easily destroyed?

Not really.
 

Quote

A few weeks ago, Belarusian forces began conducting various exercises that we believe are preparations for a large-scale bilateral drill involving one operational command against another. Although this concept isn’t new (the Russians first implemented it on a large scale in 2019), Minsk only conducted a drill of this magnitude for the first time last year, in September.

We closely monitored the drill and provided clear warnings and recommendations that it was purely an exercise. Our current assessment links the recent “build-up” near Ukraine to the 2024 iteration of the bilateral exercise. While many aspects of this year’s drill are similar to those in 2023, the concentration area has notably shifted. The deployment of forces into Gomel Oblast, which served as a staging area for Russian troops during the 2022 attack on Kyiv, is particularly concerning.

While it is crucial to remain vigilant and closely monitor Minsk’s actions, intentions, methods, and their potential impact, we assess that it is unlikely Belarus is considering offensive action against Ukraine at this stage. Our long-term assessment is that the Belarusian Armed Forces primarily function as a mobilization force, which would require a significant increase in manpower through mobilization to conduct any offensive operations. Even then, their forces primarily rely on post-Soviet equipment that has seen minimal modernization, leaving them ill-equipped for contemporary battlefield demands.

Additionally, Ukraine has heavily fortified and mined many areas along its border with Belarus, meaning any attack from Belarus would require an overwhelming amount of force to succeed. Minsk currently does not have the capability to muster such a force.

We therefore assess that Ukraine’s primary concern is small-scale incursions aimed at seizing limited territory to compel a redeployment of Ukrainian forces from other regions. While the probability of such a scenario remains low, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Determining whether Lukashenko would actually take this step is beyond what open sources can provide. However, what we do know is that the current forces are too small to meet doctrinal requirements for offensive operations. We will continue to monitor Belarusian activities near Ukraine and plan to release an analytical paper on the bilateral exercise in September or October.

 

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1827799256151036253

 

Edited August 26 by Vanir Ausf B

[ArmouredTopHat]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the tip of the iceberg, as they say, about the murderous hostility that exists between ethnic Russians and Chechens.  Something like this could trigger a broader conflict between these armed extremists.  Even if it stays at a fairly contained for a while, it will likely build up to something bigger.  That's what happens when two violent Alpha male groups start offing each other.

Steve

It does make me wonder just how much 'behind the scenes' have been going on between various extreme units of the Russian forces. We get snippets of data now and again that tend to paint a pretty messy picture. 

[Eug85]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the tip of the iceberg, as they say, about the murderous hostility that exists between ethnic Russians and Chechens.  Something like this could trigger a broader conflict between these armed extremists.  Even if it stays at a fairly contained for a while, it will likely build up to something bigger.  That's what happens when two violent Alpha male groups start offing each other.

Steve

Yes, but the link between all these warring factions is Putin's strong power. For the ultranationalists, he guarantees the aspiration for Russia's dominance in the international arena. And for the Kadyrovites, he guarantees regular cash subsidies to the Chechen budget. This is just a minor misunderstanding. In response to this action, some members of the Rusich group will most likely be given over to Kadyrov to be torn apart. And none of the ordinary Russians will dare to take any action aimed at protecting Russian nationalists.

[Carolus]

Claimed to be Chinese guys in Russian service. Has anyone heard about this outside of Twitter?

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Yes, but the link between all these warring factions is Putin's strong power. For the ultranationalists, he guarantees the aspiration for Russia's dominance in the international arena. And for the Kadyrovites, he guarantees regular cash subsidies to the Chechen budget. This is just a minor misunderstanding. In response to this action, some members of the Rusich group will most likely be given over to Kadyrov to be torn apart. And none of the ordinary Russians will dare to take any action aimed at protecting Russian nationalists.

To clarify, I was speaking only about the extremist groups going after each other, not the general population.  We have seen this happen from time to time since the war stared, but it was always "sorted out" before it got out of control.  I don't think this specific incident is any different.  However, sometimes these sorts of "misunderstandings" get out of control.  It happens with crime families from time to time.

Steve

[Fenris]

Vision from the dash of a I what I think is a MRAP following a UKR AFV through a village in Kursk.  Anyone recognize the type?  One comment reckons it looks like a Challenger.  It takes a hit and is damaged towards the end.

Quote

Ukrainian forces, likely from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, are clearing a village in the Kursk region on the first days of the operation. At 3:34, a Ukrainian tank withstands a "Lancet" drone strike.

Claimed to be RU vision of the same action.  Edit, shorter clip with less editing. Apparently a couple of weeks ago.  Comments claim the AFV had been abandoned before it blows.  With the overhead view it looks like T something.

Still with open hatches

 

Edited August 26 by Fenris

[FancyCat]

Quote

"Ukrainian officials are preparing to present a list of long-range targets in Russia to top U.S. national security officials that they think Kyiv’s military can hit if Washington were to lift its restrictions on U.S. weapons... The U.S. has said for months that lifting the restrictions won’t make a strategic difference in the war as Russia has moved its most important targets, including aircraft, back from the border and out of reach. But Kyiv has identified several high-value targets that it can reach with U.S.-provided missiles, the people said. It hopes the list will bolster its campaign to convince President Joe Biden to change his mind." @ErinBanco @paulmcleary

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/26/ukraine-biden-targets-russia-restrictions-00176377

 

Edited August 26 by FancyCat

[Kraft]

With one of the most massive missile bombardments, hitting kyiv hydroelectric dam, churches and the like, among critical infrastructure that may cause people to freeze to death

The russian 'freed' opposition has thankfully condemned this attack

Oh wait, these russian propaganda assets only did this when sudcha was taken in nearly pristine condition, parroting russian propaganda outlets.

 

Edited August 26 by Kraft

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Vision from the dash of a I what I think is a MRAP following a UKR AFV through a village in Kursk.  Anyone recognize the type?  One comment reckons it looks like a Challenger.  It takes a hit and is damaged towards the end.

The exhaust vents look like a T-64. It sounds like one too.

[billbindc]

8 hours ago, kraze said:

Durov is a FSB agent. I doubt there will be any cooperation except for some misleading statements.

Him getting prison time would've been major justice for all the crimes he committed incl. actively supporting and causing war crimes in Ukraine, but something tells me it won't happen as he will play the magical "russian opposition" card that people in the West keep falling for.

Durov is something quite a bit more complicated than an FSB agent and if playing the magical "russian opposition" card results in one getting arrested I'm not sure what your problem with it is. Since it's very likely Telegram was already cracked to a large degree by Western intelligence, I doubt he has all that much to bargain with. We'll see.

[Eug85]

GRAPHICS.

Incredible things happen. Judging by the conversation, the Russian tried to shoot himself and shot himself in the chin, but not only survived, but remained conscious. It seems that there was no brain in his head at all.

https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1828363806935793790?t=267q6dggIycB_ZgXU9EzHQ&s=19