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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Some more tea leaves.  One of Russia's ruthless PMC leaders is calling for the ouster of Putin because he, like us here, sees that Putin is going to finish off Russia as an imperialist power.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/

The main point of the OpEd above is that this guy is speaking to the military even though he knows it risks his life to do so.  The premise is that he wouldn't be risking his life to say something unless he thought it was going to be listened to.  It's logical, though there's no idea to know how impactful this might be.

Steve

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3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Benjamin Franklin said, “He who would give up liberty for security, deserves neither liberty nor security.” It has been a long time since I read that, so my quote might be missing a word or two.

He did not say it, he wrote it, and it also generally horribly misunderstood.

Since I am not making a political comment, but merely mention a historic reality, I hope this skirts the red line of the moderators. 

The Franklin quote is from one of his letters, and the proper context is thus:

To give up liberty (this liberty being the right of the state to collect taxes from rich landowners - it is a liberty the state has, as Franklin calls it) for a little security (a one-time donated payment from rich landowners for equipping a militia force for which they wanted to weasel out of paying continuous taxes for in exchange) deserves neither (if the state accepts the offer of rich landowners who wanted to get out of paying taxes, the state would not deserve the liberty of enacting taxes, nor the security provided by military forces).

Thus Frankling was not talking about individual people and their personal liberties or securities, he was talking about the government and its liberties (taxes, laws, enforcement, and not giving rich people special treatment) and security (organising military forces).

Edited by Carolus
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...Putin is going to finish off Russia as an imperialist power.

I wonder if the remnants of Wagner being hunted down in Africa is having a greater moral effect than we may think. Russia's ability to cause mischief around the world was a major component of its power projection. Sure, the destruction of its cold war legacy army is an inconvenience, but the reduction of its ability to cause strife-by-proxy in the West must be especially galling.

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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some more tea leaves.  One of Russia's ruthless PMC leaders is calling for the ouster of Putin because he, like us here, sees that Putin is going to finish off Russia as an imperialist power.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/

The main point of the OpEd above is that this guy is speaking to the military even though he knows it risks his life to do so.  The premise is that he wouldn't be risking his life to say something unless he thought it was going to be listened to.  It's logical, though there's no idea to know how impactful this might be.

Steve

I saw that one too, one can wonder if it's mainly suicidal direction; but why would someone in a 'comfortable' position risk everything, for what exactly?

This brings me back to @Beleg85 point, we might be projecting rational Ideas onto a system which doesn't function according to our rational cognitions about statecraft.

Case in point, I'm now (for holiday mainly) in Morocco. How things work here is just 'different'. I mean they are all very human and on an individual level there is no difference. However, how the 'social contract' works overhere can't be explained reading 'western' theory about the subject.

Corruption isn't always looked at as corruption, it's for a large part how the social contract, for lack of a better word, works and has been working for a long time.

Change is happening, but it's step by step with plenty of backsteps involved. My info comes from locals and people inside the system, who might have ideas or feelings towards more democracy and less corruption and nepotism. But they know the only way is through the system. The King, while not above criticism, is seen by a large part of the population as the glue which keeps the whole system from imploding. Most people with enough bread in their mouth aren't going to benefit from an imploding system, so whatever their political views are, anyone with realism and love for their country aren't going to jump on some bandwagon even if it alinea with what they think is 'right'. The general population isn't ready for full fledged democracy.

Russia is in her own unique way more similar to such a society, imo, compared to a Western one. Russians aren't stupid and we'll aware how our political systems work. They play poker with those.

That isn't to say there are no red lines, but the red lines being put out in the open are probably more part of the poker game then anything else. We shouldn't seek to humiliate Russia, but imo also not be calling their bluffs just because they have a lot of nukes.

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1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Case in point, I'm now (for holiday mainly) in Morocco. How things work here is just 'different'. I mean they are all very human and on an individual level there is no difference. However, how the 'social contract' works overhere can't be explained reading 'western' theory about the subject.

 

Well at least I forebore wading into the Ben Franklin militia thing....

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some more tea leaves.  One of Russia's ruthless PMC leaders is calling for the ouster of Putin because he, like us here, sees that Putin is going to finish off Russia as an imperialist power.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4839613-another-russian-mercenary-leader-has-turned-against-putin/

The main point of the OpEd above is that this guy is speaking to the military even though he knows it risks his life to do so.  The premise is that he wouldn't be risking his life to say something unless he thought it was going to be listened to.  It's logical, though there's no idea to know how impactful this might be.

Steve

Would be interesting to know what the reach of his connections are in the KGB. He was part of the border force but clearly has enough to start and prosper Paladin. His PMC is under 500 members and mostly in Syria and Africa so there isn't a military component to this. 

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A *very* interesting arrest. Telegram is very heavily used by not just the Russian military but by overseas operations teams from the GRU, FSB, etc. While there is certainly some penetration by foreign sigint already, Durov's cooperation would represent a strategic overview of Russian government use that would likely have serious consequences. 

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15 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/23/after-a-six-month-lull-the-ukrainians-are-lobbing-tochka-ballistic-missiles-again/

Ukraine continues to use Tochka-U missiles. It seems that the production of these missiles has been established in Dnipro

I think it was Stalin who said "In Dnipro they build rockets like making sausages."

Edited by Carolus
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10 minutes ago, Lieutenant Ash said:

Call me crazy, but I don't 100% assume he's dead.  Putting all of Wagner's key players on one plane never made sense.  Don't think they would have done that. 

But, I never thought Putin would invade Ukraine or that a significant number of conservatives/Republicans would turn their back on Ukraine support--so what do I know?

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1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Call me crazy, but I don't 100% assume he's dead.  Putting all of Wagner's key players on one plane never made sense.  Don't think they would have done that. 

But, I never thought Putin would invade Ukraine or that a significant number of conservatives/Republicans would turn their back on Ukraine support--so what do I know?

He's dead.

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Extraordinary warning from Ukraine to Belarus: Belarusian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, gathering along the border in the Gomel region north of Kyiv and Chernobyl threaten Ukraine’s and the world’s security, and must withdraw beyond the range of their weapons systems. Kyiv urges Minsk to”not to make tragic for its own country mistakes under Moscow’s pressure” and warns that in case Ukraine’s border is violated all military concentrations and logistics in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Ukrainian military.

https://mfa.gov.ua/news/zayava-mzs-ukrayini-shchodo-nedruzhnih-dij-respubliki-bilorus

https://t.me/Ukraine_MFA/3186

 

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on one hand, it would be so stupid for Belarus try something, but hey, didnt many say that about the invasion? tweet direct from the MFA itself below. 

Quote

Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises. We warn Belarusian officials not to make tragic mistakes under Moscow’s pressure and withdraw forces from our border.

 

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i do wish i could delete posts...i found a english translation of the full MFA statement. Apparently mercs from Wagner, are also near the border, while it could be posturing, if i were Russia, deeply annoyed with Ukraine's Kursk incursion, and having already used Belarus to attack Kyiv, and wagering that potentially the Belarus - Ukraine border would be less defended, may decide to try at least a raid. This may be Ukraine warning off Belarus from allowing such a thing to occur. I don't believe since the failure of the Northern axis of advance from Belarus, that any raids have occurred no? 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/25-august-the-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-of-ukraine-according

 
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

on one hand, it would be so stupid for Belarus try something, but hey, didnt many say that about the invasion? tweet direct from the MFA itself below. 

 

I suspect the infrastructure retaliation from UKR would not be something Belarus' dictator wants.  he's already quite unpopular it seems.  And I think that would be a good response by UKR -- knock out some oil, electricity, transportation, etc around the Minsk area and see how much the Belarus people like being on the receiving end of war.  Smoke columns and explosions in the distance, lines for gas, no electricity, would have quite an effect, I bet.

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