How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well first, thanks for a more readable post. I suspect nobody here disagrees with you that a complex challenge lies ahead, fraught with risk for all of humanity.

But 'deliberate and cautious' appears to mean to you mainly 'managing the head Orc in Moscow', who sits on the all important nukes. And that head Orc is going to be no Jeffersonian democrat. He will be fighting to retain brutal autocratic control over as much of the old empire as he can, regardless of what his subjects may think.

So preserving that kind of 'stability' is going to create some very ugly choices for us if mishandled, or even if adroitly handled, especially when the rebels espouse Locke rather than Lenin.

And the West seems to be a bit hit or miss where picking those clients, and then sticking by them, is concerned.

This piece is interesting, and gives an idea of what I mean.

Ukraine’s Offensive Bolsters Russia’s Separatists (FP, defirewalled)

Since the 1990s, the official U.S. position on the conflict has been simple: “We consider Chechnya a part of Russia.”

Yes, Pandora's box, absolutely. But how many millions of good people get thrown under the 'stability' bus? And does it even work in the end?  I don't have answers to any of that.

“Thank you for a more readable post” says the guy quoting 15th century English philosophers and the US Declaration of Independence in relation to a modern day war in Ukraine.

So as I read this, your point seems to be that we should “think about the Russians”? Ok, noted…I guess.  I kinda want them to stop volunteering to go kill innocent Ukrainians first, but I am a bit of a radical thinker.  So, yes, we are going to try and deal with the “head Orc” in Moscow who is sitting on all the nukes…because he is sitting on all the nukes.  As to freedom loving separatists - what in recent history would give you any indication that we are particularly adept at transplanting Jeffersonian liberty around the globe? Iraq? Afghanistan?

Or perhaps you were coming at this from a subversive warfare angle dressed in some sort of angelic robes? Ok, it is a play but as we have discussed, subversive warfare is damned tricky and can make things much worse. Freedom loving people who do not agree on what freedom means can (and will) start shooting at each other too.  Say we go and directly support a democratic loving faction with money, guns and data…then that faction splinters? Or decides that its version of the Declaration of Independence includes nuclear terrorism? In these situations depending on a peaceful transition of power based on some sort of universal freedom lightbulb is simply not a good idea.

As to throwing “those poor Russians under a bus”.  We let’s stop that f#cking bus from running over Ukrainians without exploding entirely and then we can hold a conference or something.

[The_Capt]

From the ISW report yesterday:

The Russian government has previously hesitated to fully allocate federal materiel to territorial defense forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) allocated military weapons and equipment to the Belgorod and Kursk territorial defense forces in August 2023, although a Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian authorities would store the weapons in a centralized, locked location and noted that it is unclear how the territorial defense forces will be able to access the weapons in an emergency.[18] Bogomaz's claim that a VDV commander is leading Bryansk Oblast's territorial defense forces may be indicative of the Kremlin's wider intentions to allocate better-trained, "elite" commanders to lead units comprised of poorer-trained territorial defense forces or conscripts. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin may have attempted to balance the need for increased border security with a desire to avoid empowering decentralized military formations following the Wagner Group's armed rebellion in June 2023.[19] The Kremlin may be recalculating such assessments in the wake of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast, however, and may be more willing to allocate greater materiel and manpower support to territorial defense forces.

 

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Kamalaspeak? Nah. "Let's not support Ukraine too much so Russia dorsn't cause us trouble even if it destroys lives of millions of people whose only crime is being born Easyern Europe" is more of a Kissinger line and he was no Democrat.

(Also realpolitik = belief that having ideals and acting on them is stupid and everyone should be out for just themselves and have no problem cooperating with evil like Russia ... unsurprisingly pushed mostly by Russia and their supporters)

I would suggest listening to what candidates actually say rather than making up a quote based on your most cynical interpretation of what they might do.  

[Carolus]

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/drohnen-spionage-sabotage-100.html

Drones have been spotted several times at night over a NATO base and industrial areas in Northern Germany. German security reports that these drones are hard to spot or detect by radar and that their construction and behaviour indicates they are not civilian models.

It is suspected these drones are Russian. They might have been started in Kalinigrad or from Russian ships which pass by in East Sea and North Sea.

The drones have avoided interception attempts by German police drones so far.

 

I wonder what the political interpretation is. Entering the airspace of another nation with a military jet is not allowed, and meeting Russian patrols with NATO jets has been a common occurance since days of the Cold War. 

But what about drones? Is this a "lesser offence" ? Is it permissible to shoot them down? Likely yes. But is it a diplomatic incident?

Edited August 23 by Carolus

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

“Thank you for a more readable post” says the guy quoting 15th century English philosophers and the US Declaration of Independence in relation to a modern day war in Ukraine.

So as I read this, your point seems to be that we should “think about the Russians”? Ok, noted…I guess.  I kinda want them to stop volunteering to go kill innocent Ukrainians first, but I am a bit of a radical thinker.  So, yes, we are going to try and deal with the “head Orc” in Moscow who is sitting on all the nukes…because he is sitting on all the nukes.  As to freedom loving separatists - what in recent history would give you any indication that we are particularly adept at transplanting Jeffersonian liberty around the globe? Iraq? Afghanistan?

Or perhaps you were coming at this from a subversive warfare angle dressed in some sort of angelic robes? Ok, it is a play but as we have discussed, subversive warfare is damned tricky and can make things much worse. Freedom loving people who do not agree on what freedom means can (and will) start shooting at each other too.  Say we go and directly support a democratic loving faction with money, guns and data…then that faction splinters? Or decides that its version of the Declaration of Independence includes nuclear terrorism? In these situations depending on a peaceful transition of power based on some sort of universal freedom lightbulb is simply not a good idea.

As to throwing “those poor Russians under a bus”.  We let’s stop that f#cking bus from running over Ukrainians without exploding entirely and then we can hold a conference or something.

I think you're kind of proving my actual point (which never had anything to do with 'white saviour' or bringing 'The Amurcan Way Of Life' to the Russians. That is entirely your invention).

Two can play at caricatures here....

So you are saying that, postwar, we gotta keep head Orc in power for the sake of Civilization, and for any person or group stuck on the wrong side of the Curzon line who doesn't like it, well, too bad. Stability. We got our hands full saving the good kids.

And I don't think that's gonna be so easy for the West. (It's why we're backing Ukraine, after all). As strategy, it might even turn out to be self defeating in the modern age.

....By which I mean, a confederation of  'Russian' principalities somewhat free to look outward might well be a more stable bet than propping up Moscow robber baron strongman. Maybe not, I am not as certain as you are.

Finally, that head Orc in Moscow is far more likely to be China's guy than ours.

As Beleg noted earlier, this isn't Yugoslavia and it isn't Iraq, and it isn't the 1990s or 2000s.

Edited August 23 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

Interesting about that hyper long punch up north then rapid fall back (that it was quite so far, I mean). Probably a long range feint? It might have thrown the RUS coordination  offbalance over the first week, so leaving the western flank unreinforced while RUS focussed on Kursk. 

The (current) plan is fairly clear - hold east, and expand west. 

Now there's some on larger RUS reinf about to hit, if not already. Will they stay focussed on the eastern flank and try to push through to the base of the incursion? 

Or attempt to cordon off the whole effort?, south to north west? I doubt they have the numbers, not without dragging a lot more from Donetsk. 

I assume RUS is trading space and POWs for time to breakthrough in Donetsk. 

Can we please move on from the esoteric squabbling over Russia's future? The Fat Lady isn't even singing yet. 

Edited August 23 by Kinophile

[kimbosbread]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The (current) plan is fairly clear - hold east, and expand west. 

I agree (and hope) with the Russian commentators that there has to be another punch coming somewhere else. I think it will be the Kinburn spit or ZNPP. This of course is the hyper optimistic scenario where Ukraine has reserves, and is able to neutralize the glide bomb threat somewhat.

That ro-ro ferry fuel of fuel tank train cars that just got blown up, that was Russia’s last one right?

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I think you're kind of proving my actual point (which never had anything to do with 'white saviour' or bringing 'The Amurcan Way Of Life' to the Russians. That is entirely your invention).

Two can play at caricatures here....

So you are saying that, postwar, we gotta keep head Orc in power for the sake of Civilization, and for any person or group stuck on the wrong side of the Curzon line who doesn't like it, well, too bad. Stability. We got our hands full saving the good kids.

Hey , you brought up Jeffersons bitty - I just pointed out the hypocrisy.  You posted it as an "oh so clever" way to try and highlight a point, but it was off key and frankly a poor fit for this current situation from just about any angle one wants to look at it.

No, what I am saying is that we are likely going to have to keep dealing with a head Orc in power because the odds of a Russian sudden impulse for liberal democracy are extremely long. The Russian people keep their people in power, not us.  Honestly I am not sure how you think the world really works at this point. Do you think we have some western Star Chamber that decides which country has which power regime?

We could push for regime change but given Russian history, it will very likely be some other gangster whose hands are just clean enough. If you are advocating some sort of western intervention that leads to Russian Independence, that does not lead to another Russian Civil War (now with nukes) then articulate what that looks like. Or are you on the side of "crush Russia to full on breaking...so that we can save them...because freedom will find a way?"

20 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

....By which I mean, a confederation of  'Russian' principalities somewhat free to look outward might well be a more stable bet than propping up Moscow robber baron strongman. Maybe not, I am not as certain as you are.

Here is the thing...we cannot control this. Hell we can probably barely influence it.  What we can influence is just how much damage this war does on Russia, and how fast...to a point. So far the course has been deliberate and cautious.  Why?  Because humans can get used to anything, slowly.  Sudden shocks cause panic, gradual increases in pressure can be adjusted for.  So the West has been steadily upping the pressure and escalation in an attempt to give Russia time to "adjust" as oppose to risk major fractures...that is the theory. 

Now where these "adjustments" will finally land is really anyone's guess, but we do know we do not want Russia to fully collapse or lose centralized control of its nuclear arsenal [side: note, I am no economic expert but I am pretty sure there is an economic nuclear scenario here as well as it relates to the global impacts on energy production and supply].  To my mind this is not a really good time for experiments in Russian democracy, but hey I guess I am a bit of a pessimist.

Either way, the whole point of this entire discussion - before you jumped in - was the state of Russian fragility and its impact on the western calculus in supporting Ukrainian military action.  Here I stand on my original conclusion - deliberate and cautious: because Russia is not a stable state. This would be laughable except for the part where they are sitting in possession of over 6000 nuclear weapons while staring into a possible abyss. Beleg85 came around with a counter-view and we bantered it around.  We seem to have landed on - Russia is in bad shape but there are still some intangibles that help hold it together....so a solid...maybe.  And then good old Long Lefty came out of his field with this whole Russian democracy thing. Your points actually support me on my original point with rosy cheeked Russian children yearning to be free while eyeballing their AKs.      

[LongLeftFlank]

I spend plenty of time in the real world; I possibly see more of it than you do nowadays, I don't know.

Your 'Russia box' notwithstanding, there are going to be groups within that box wanting to go their own way. Some of them are going to come across very sympathetically to Westerners, just as the Maidan Ukrainians were. Just as the Kurds were, whom we  threw under the bus, along with all the women of Afghanistan. We had reasons, of course, as Steve noted. 

I'm afraid I can't help you with your emotional baggage around Jefferson, or the philosophes. Some principles are universal.

But I think we've belaboured this long enough.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Hey , you brought up Jeffersons bitty - I just pointed out the hypocrisy.  You posted it as an "oh so clever" way to try and highlight a point, but it was off key and frankly a poor fit for this current situation from just about any angle one wants to look at it.

No, what I am saying is that we are likely going to have to keep dealing with a head Orc in power because the odds of a Russian sudden impulse for liberal democracy are extremely long. The Russian people keep their people in power, not us.  Honestly I am not sure how you think the world really works at this point. Do you think we have some western Star Chamber that decides which country has which power regime?

We could push for regime change but given Russian history, it will very likely be some other gangster whose hands are just clean enough. If you are advocating some sort of western intervention that leads to Russian Independence, that does not lead to another Russian Civil War (now with nukes) then articulate what that looks like. Or are you on the side of "crush Russia to full on breaking...so that we can save them...because freedom will find a way?"

Here is the thing...we cannot control this. Hell we can probably barely influence it.  What we can influence is just how much damage this war does on Russia, and how fast...to a point. So far the course has been deliberate and cautious.  Why?  Because humans can get used to anything, slowly.  Sudden shocks cause panic, gradual increases in pressure can be adjusted for.  So the West has been steadily upping the pressure and escalation in an attempt to give Russia time to "adjust" as oppose to risk major fractures...that is the theory. 

Now where these "adjustments" will finally land is really anyone's guess, but we do know we do not want Russia to fully collapse or lose centralized control of its nuclear arsenal [side: note, I am no economic expert but I am pretty sure there is an economic nuclear scenario here as well as it relates to the global impacts on energy production and supply].  To my mind this is not a really good time for experiments in Russian democracy, but hey I guess I am a bit of a pessimist.

Either way, the whole point of this entire discussion - before you jumped in - was the state of Russian fragility and its impact on the western calculus in supporting Ukrainian military action.  Here I stand on my original conclusion - deliberate and cautious: because Russia is not a stable state. This would be laughable except for the part where they are sitting in possession of over 6000 nuclear weapons while staring into a possible abyss. Beleg85 came around with a counter-view and we bantered it around.  We seem to have landed on - Russia is in bad shape but there are still some intangibles that help hold it together....so a solid...maybe.  And then good old Long Lefty came out of his field with this whole Russian democracy thing. Your points actually support me on my original point with rosy cheeked Russian children yearning to be free while eyeballing their AKs.      

This can be summed up as:

"The only people that get to decide how this plays out, ultimately, are the Russians.  And, unfortunately, they seem solidly predisposed to being an Orc hoard ruled by a single all powerful Orc in Moscow.  All we can do in the West is confront the Orc and make sure he and his hoard stay in Mordor to the fullest extent possible."

Or summed up even shorter:

"The road to Hell is paved with good intentions."

 

History has taught us that there are only TWO ways for a country to become a stable, democratic(ish) rules based peaceful state:

1. The people spontaneously decide enough is enough and engage in a (reasonably) unified fight (violence) for a better existence fundamentally on their own
2. The people spontaneously decide enough is enough and engage in a (reasonably) unified fight (perhaps not so much violence as determination) for a better existence while also being occupied by a more-or-less benevolent foreign government/s

The key ingredient here is the people need to be largely unified in their desire to act in a cohesive way for a better future.  Ukraine is doing the #1 method and it's a long, messy road.  The former Warsaw Pact countries also went the #1 route.  After WW2 concluded, Japan, West Germany and Italy went the #2 route.

The West tried #2 with Afghanistan and it failed because there was no unified vision of a better life for or by the people.  Iraq was also a #2 and... well... it's better now than at any time before, so there's that.

 

The lesson here is that until Russians decide for themselves that they want a better life, they won't have one.  I think the best possible route is to have Russia break up.  There's a better chance of SOME people improving their lot in life and it will mean no all powerful Orc in Moscow.  The real concern here is that the act of breaking up Russia may be fundamentally fatal to a very large number of people.

Steve

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This can be summed up as:

"The only people that get to decide how this plays out, ultimately, are the Russians.  And, unfortunately, they seem solidly predisposed to being an Orc hoard ruled by a single all powerful Orc in Moscow.  All we can do in the West is confront the Orc and make sure he and his hoard stay in Mordor to the fullest extent possible."

Or summed up even shorter:

"The road to Hell is paved with good intentions."

 

History has taught us that there are only TWO ways for a country to become a stable, democratic(ish) rules based peaceful state:

1. The people spontaneously decide enough is enough and engage in a (reasonably) unified fight (violence) for a better existence on fundamentally on their own
2. The people spontaneously decide enough is enough and engage in a (reasonably) unified fight (perhaps not so much violence as determination) for a better existence while also being occupied by a more-or-less benevolent foreign government/s

The key ingredient here is the people need to be largely unified in their desire to act in a cohesive way for a better future.  Ukraine is doing the #1 method and it's a long, messy road.  The former Warsaw Pact countries also went the #1 route.  After WW2 concluded, West Germany and Italy went the #2 route.

The West tried #2 with Afghanistan and it failed because there was no unified vision of a better life for or by the people.  Iraq was also a #2 and... well... it's better now than at any time before, so there's that.

 

The lesson here is that until Russians decide for themselves that they want a better life, they won't have one.  I think the best possible route is to have Russia break up.  There's a better chance of SOME people improving their lot in life and it will mean no all powerful Orc in Moscow.  The real concern here is that the act of breaking up Russia may be fundamentally fatal to a very large number of people.

Steve

Best way to tell if you are in a real war is 1) No Easy Buttons and 2) Every choice is bad...it really sucks.  I think this war meets this criteria

[danfrodo]

8 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Dan, last week I've watched this documentary about a remarkable Russian historian and hero named Yuri Dimitriev who refuses to bend for the criminals. His 'crime'? Trying to find a give a name to the hundreds of thousands of Stalin's executed victims who now rest in mass graves in the endless forests of Karelia. 

They are now trying to break Yuri by accusing him of children porno and other nonsense. He's in jail, no doubt he will die there. I was very impressed by this documentary and it reminded me of the fact that there still are decent Russians. Yuri Dimitriev, one of Russia's silent heroes. Let's not forget this man.

Higly recommended: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27989206/

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/content/yuri-dmitriev-affair

Hi Aragorn Ol' buddy 

So is RU 'apathy' driven by selfishness and lack of caring?  Or is it driven by fear?  I bet lots of it is driven by fear like in your example above, which probably leads to self-interested thinking -- can't make a difference because will be punished so just look out for yourself.  Generation upon generation upon generation of this.

I bet you are watching the Kursk invasion with beer & popcorn every day 

Edited August 23 by danfrodo

[kimbosbread]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So is RU 'apathy' driven by selfishness and lack of caring?  Or is it driven by fear?  I bet lots of it is driven by fear like in your example above, which probably leads to self-interested thinking -- can't make a difference because will be punished so just look out for yourself.  Generation upon generation upon generation of this.

And there’s self-selection. A glorious ancestor of a family friend ~130 years ago decided that pogroms were just not his cup of tea and made his way on foot to Palestine.

EDIT: This happened very hard in Italy too. Being a peasant in the south apparently sucked so bad that my great grandparents, upon arriving at Ellis Island, promptly vowed to never teach their infant son Italian, despite them not speaking anything but! So you get left with all the people who have a capacity for suffering, but not risk taking or changing their situation in life.

Edited August 23 by kimbosbread

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, billbindc said:

"As President I will strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies." 

VP Kamala Harris tonight. I think we know where she stands now.

 

How can you tell when politicians are lying? Their lips are moving!

[Sequoia]

Cmon Vet, you can do better than that. That joke was old before my great grandmother had tits. (another old joke).

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

EDIT: This happened very hard in Italy too. Being a peasant in the south apparently sucked so bad that my great grandparents, upon arriving at Ellis Island, promptly vowed to never teach their infant son Italian, despite them not speaking anything but! So you get left with all the people who have a capacity for suffering, but not risk taking or changing their situation in life.

I am 99% sure that describes one of my grandmother's side of the family.  My father also said something about the family name being somewhat problematic to bring up in certain circles.  Sicilian... need I say more?

I'm a funny guy when it comes to immigration.  I'm generally for it (I would be a hypocrite if I said I'm against it, seeing as I am not Native American), but I recognize that countries like the US get the best and the brightest, the most open minded, and the most motivated from otherwise problematic countries.  They are exactly the sorts of people that are needed to make societies change, so when they leave their native countries they rob them of a resource for changing things. 

The wave of millions of Russians that left at the start of the war should have been the seeds of revolution and change.  Instead, they are no longer directly involved.  Which is why Putin was likely very happy (at least at first) to see them leave.  Poets generally don't make good soldiers, but they can be excellent revolutionaries.

Steve

[sburke]

50 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

How can you tell when politicians are lying? Their lips are moving!

mostly true, but in this case we already know from actions that those words are actually true.  Though we might all wish the US was providing more, the biggest blockage there is from the GOP.

[Eug85]

An interesting fact about the unity of Russians and their attitude towards national minorities.

I can add that if you dare to call a Chechen or Dagestani Russian, the best thing that awaits you is a punch in the face.

These peoples are loyal to the Russians as long as subsidies do not provide them with a comfortable existence. Although regular shootouts and attacks on security forces in Dagestan make you think about this statement.

[Kraft]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/23/ukraine-biden-weapons-restrictions-00176210

 

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

How can you tell when politicians are lying? Their lips are moving!

Come on now, brother. She is part of the administration and party that's been supporting Ukraine and she just vociferously committed to continuing to do so. Let's be happy about it in an entirely bipartisan fashion.

[FancyCat]

The administration is already under water due to (gestures at middle east), I highly doubt (tho I firmly wish they would) they want to rock the boat in Ukraine. Any changes in stances will come after the election. As for those doves in the U.S admin, I'm not worried tbh. When the West began to offer high level munitions and eqp, the ability for doves to completely upend the direction of Ukraine entering NATO has been steadily diminishing. My concern regarding aid has been largely blindness to Ukrainian weakness allowing Russia to capitalize before western aid can stop it, but Kursk has restored my faith in Ukraine's ability to prevent full scale collapse.

One thing I emphasize is the Ukrainian ability to reinforce hawks in the West in promoting Ukraine support. The Kursk offensive, illustrating daylight between Ukraine and its Western allies is part of the calculus in Western minds. A Ukraine that is sold out by the West won't go quietly in the night, if (big IF) Nordstrom was also Ukraine, same principle, Ukraine will not be some meek client state that dutifully obeys it's Western puppet masters.

Doves who aren't actual Russian psyops need to explain how can the U.S balance between pushing Ukraine to settle vs allowing Russia to win.

Russian refusal to acknowledge Ukraine's independence in that very real sense is why it launched this invasion, and why it refrains from seeing the reality of cutting its losses Ukraine and cutting a deal.

Edited August 23 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

Quote

Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out a successful cruise missile attack into Russia this evening. Local outlets report that a Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile hit a Russian ammunition dump in Ostrogozhsk, Voronezh Oblast with secondary explosions and fire seen nearby.

Additional secondary explosions

 

Possibly some of the first footage of a Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile screaming low over Russia.

https://t.co/h6gi6RHxMi

https://t.me/atypicalday/41370

 

[FancyCat]

Quote

Aftermath of the Ukrainian strike on the Kavkaz ferry terminal, as seen in a satellite image taken today, August 23. It's completely toasted, including what was allegedly the last available ferry for Russia to transport rail cars to Crimea.

#Satellite imagery by @planet from August 23, available to Schemes (@cxemu), shows the destroyed ferry and several small vessels nearby that could also have been damaged by the strike on the #Kavkaz port in the Krasnodar Territory of the Russian Federation.

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/23/ukraine-biden-weapons-restrictions-00176210

 

That is a dumb, and likely nonsense reason.  The US has been an active participant in the targeting and killing of thousands of Russian troops inside Ukraine, and Russia knows it. “Eventually resetting relations” will have to overcome that little friction point before worrying about ATACMs strike inside Russia itself.  The West has got a lot of blood on its hands in this war already, a little more is not going to make a difference.

Now holding off as a threat on the next rung of escalation makes more sense.

Edited August 24 by The_Capt

[alison]

3 hours ago, Eug85 said:

An interesting fact about the unity of Russians and their attitude towards national minorities.

I can add that if you dare to call a Chechen or Dagestani Russian, the best thing that awaits you is a punch in the face.

These peoples are loyal to the Russians as long as subsidies do not provide them with a comfortable existence. Although regular shootouts and attacks on security forces in Dagestan make you think about this statement.

In Germany, I worked with libertarian-ish Slavic Russians who had emigrated because they struggled with the corruption and disliked the fact that whenever their entrepreneurialism hit a certain point of success they were made to pay into the local protection racket, or kowtow to the local mafia boss/politician/whatever. In China, I worked with progressive-ish Asian Russians who lamented the fact that they would never be taken seriously by the Slavic majority, they knew they were always going to be treated like trash, so better for them to try build a life in a place where they'd still forever be outsiders, but at least they could occupy a spot higher up on the ladder of "foreign friends" than the lowliest of foreigners (Africans, naturally) and perhaps even have a higher ceiling than useful frenemies from Europe and the Americas.

So do these interesting facts of mine show Russians to be right-wing or left-wing? Are they both? Are they apathetic? Well clearly not that, or they wouldn't have been motivated enough to emigrate. But that's the whole thing. If we only ever look at refugees and migrants, we are looking at the most self-motivated and often also the wealthier and better-educated slice of a country's population.

Meanwhile if you only look at the loudest voices on domestic social media, many of which by virtue of being in an authoritarian country tend to be reasonably if not entirely aligned with the party line, you could get the impression that the whole place is nationalist yahoos.

Or you can send in reporters whose job it is to hunt down the most compelling stories of hardship so that there is something interesting to write about, and depending on who they are reporting for, you will get to read well-sourced thinkpieces about racism and homophobia, or classism and economic inequality, or alcoholism and addiction, or sexual violence and misogyny, or whatever.

I have never lived in Russia myself, so for me I have to read between the lines from all these sources, and consider less controversial corners of social media, places where people who live in Russia completely ignore politics and the war and engage in everyday hobbies... And I apply what I know from living in China - a country where people from outside have a lot of preconceptions about how it is - and come to the conclusion that... it's complicated. Big country. 150 million people. It's cold. It's poor. It's conservative. Making more specific generalizations can be an interesting sociological exercise, but using them to predict something as major as a country's political collapse is just reading the tea leaves.

It's fine, people make careers of reading tea leaves... but it is just a guessing game, with varying degrees of confidence. For every one person who makes a correct prediction once, a thousand made wrong ones a thousand times. I think it's easier to predict the actions of politicians and other government officials, since - contrary to some pithy comments earlier on the thread - they tend to say what they want to do and then do what they said. Mainly because those are the people with their hands on the levers of power, so they actually have the concrete ability to affect major change in ways that the average person cannot. I know, I know, democracy and freedom and people's revolutions and so on, but now we're reading the tea leaves and writing fanfic again.

Authoritarian or democratically-elected, the buck stops with the folks whose job it is to make the tough decisions. For better or for worse, their top guys are the ones our top guys need to deal with. So I get this "well we need to engage with Putin, even though he/his administration is terrible" philosophy that you see amongst many politicians in the west. Maybe it's depressingly status-quo-y, but it seems to me that that's how the world works. Epic global rebalancings of power and thunderous revolutions are exciting but rare. Thankfully, too, since they often result in many civilian deaths. In all the in-between times, we just have to do the best we can with what we've got.

Personally, I'm glad to not be in a job where I need to make the tough decisions.

Anyway, my point is that it's interesting to read human interest stories from Russia, but I'm not sure that they will illuminate much about the war in Ukraine.