How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

 

[poesel]

8 hours ago, zinz said:

highly interesting interview with German.

Good summary of what was said here in the last few weeks or years.

One point to add that was not yet emphasized here: he speaks about the importance of Ukrainian long range drones and their improvements. Those could hit Russian logistic centers, which were deliberately placed outside ATACMS range.

Edited Sunday at 09:52 AM by poesel

[cesmonkey]

Korean official says 155 mm shells for Ukraine if Russia crosses South Korean's 'red line'.

Jang Ho-jin: “The mix of weapons support to Ukraine will vary depending on Russia’s response.”
https://news.kbs.co.kr/news/pc/view/view.do?ncd=7994337

Quote

National Security Office Director Jang Ho-jin appeared on KBS 1TV's Sunday Diagnosis today and said that it is up to Russia what kind of weapons it will provide to Ukraine.

Director Jang emphasized that the weapons that can be supported can be combined at various stages, whether lethal or non-lethal, and that the combination of weapons support will vary depending on Russia's response.

Director Jang warned that if Russia were to give North Korea high-precision weapons, there would no longer be any line between us.

[Jang Ho-jin/Director of the National Security Office: "Giving high-precision weapons to North Korea? Then what line can we draw? Public opinion will be the same, and Russia needs to take that into consideration."]

Russia We have made it clear that if the so-called 'red line' is crossed, we will also support lethal weapons such as 155 mm artillery shells.

Director Jang also assessed that Russia is showing signs of gradually getting closer to the red line.

 

[Carolus]

If South Korea and Japan join NATO because of Ukraine, Xi will strangulate Putin in his sleep.

(won't happen but a funny thought)

[poesel]

7 minutes ago, Carolus said:

If South Korea and Japan join NATO because of Ukraine, Xi will strangulate Putin in his sleep.

(won't happen but a funny thought)

Why not? The USA has already stationed troops in both countries and would either of those countries be attacked, NATO countries would come to help. So not many real differences. But symbolically, it would be huge.

[Carolus]

Interesting bit from the article: A Ukranian drone pilot is accompanying the training as an instructor, pointing out the dangers of small drones, how to conceal positions from drones, and how infantry can try to defend against drones. 

I bet the German drill instructors will eagerly write that all down too. Getting the knowledge straight from the source!

Edited Sunday at 02:43 PM by Carolus

[MikeyD]

I don't recall this being reported here yet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511ny02qjwo

[billbindc]

 

Prigozhin's ride...a year later.

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Interesting bit from the article: A Ukranian drone pilot is accompanying the training as an instructor, pointing out the dangers of small drones, how to conceal positions from drones, and how infantry can try to defend against drones. 

I bet the German drill instructors will eagerly write that all down too. Getting the knowledge straight from the source!

I was wondering when they would do this and its really good to see. Combining NATO training with instructors from the front in relation to the reality of the battlefield and drones is something I had hoped to see for a while now. Hopefully it happens in the UK and other locations. 

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

Interesting bit from the article: A Ukranian drone pilot is accompanying the training as an instructor, pointing out the dangers of small drones, how to conceal positions from drones, and how infantry can try to defend against drones. 

I bet the German drill instructors will eagerly write that all down too. Getting the knowledge straight from the source!

Am i the only one disturbed by the fact that only now, 3 countries are basing and training Ukrainian personnel in basic training? Prior two were UK and Poland. Considering all the angst in Ukraine on conscription, training, one would think NATO would have winded up this much faster. It's great that Germany is stepping up alongside Poland and the UK but ya, Ukraine needs more. 

Edited Sunday at 05:56 PM by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Korean official says 155 mm shells for Ukraine if Russia crosses South Korean's 'red line'.

Jang Ho-jin: “The mix of weapons support to Ukraine will vary depending on Russia’s response.”
https://news.kbs.co.kr/news/pc/view/view.do?ncd=7994337

 

South Korea has been indirectly supplying Ukraine already, supplying more artillery shells than Europe combined. From December 2023 below. That said, cuting out middlemen is always good. 

Quote

In an article on Russia's protracted war against Ukraine, the U.S. daily explained Washington's effort to secure munitions from South Korea when the U.S.' production of shells was barely more than a tenth of some 90,000 shells that Ukraine needed per month.

South Korean law prohibits providing weapons to war zones, but U.S. officials sought to persuade Seoul to provide munitions, estimating that about 330,000 155-mm shells could be transferred by air and sea within 41 days from Korea, according to the WP.

"Senior administration officials had been speaking with counterparts in Seoul, who were receptive as long as the provision was indirect," the WP reported. "The shells began to flow at the beginning of the year, eventually making South Korea a larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined."

Also unclear is whether Korea supplied weapons to help the U.S. refill its stockpiles depleted after the U.S.' supply of munitions to Ukraine or whether Korea's munitions were delivered directly for battle operations in Ukraine.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

I don't recall this being reported here yet.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511ny02qjwo

Those are significant sized buildings.  Let's hope they were full to the roof at the time of the attack.

Not only is it cost effective to use a bunch of drones to kill a much larger number of drones, but think of all the super expensive AD assets that won't be expended to shoot them down.

Steve

[Astrophel]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

If South Korea and Japan join NATO because of Ukraine, Xi will strangulate Putin in his sleep.

(won't happen but a funny thought)

Nato is not the alliance that is needed.  A North Atlantic focussed Defensive alliance which only works when all countries can sell it to their electorates - including Hungary, and the US Republicans - is not a deterrent.

We need a global alliance of determined democracies with firepower who are prepared and willing to take proactive actions.  Either this or Xi has to make a deal that we respect his borders when he respects others - including Taiwan and Philippines and South Korea, for that matter.  Putin will then melt away and we can get back to pressing issues like climate change and doing business, including buying Chinese e-cars.

Everybody who knows Russia and Putin tell that they respect strength and nothing else.  Fiddling around with weapons which are not allowed to hit targets in Russia is not strength.  Ukraine needs to win their war and Putin's bluff needs to be called.  The idea that Kim is a player in this great game is beyond absurd.  Let "us" deal with it now.  It seems USA is half-pregnant on this which does not work.

We need a coalition of the convinced to take on the fascist/autocratic/imperialistic alliance.  The future of humankind is at stake.  Unfortunately I don't see old Jo as the guy to stitch this together.  Nor will Trump - he is primarily concerned with himself and not humankind.

Leadership is more likely to come from the areas most directly threatened:  Europe and Far East.  Hopefully Macron can win his election and Sunak lose his so we can get going.  Please somebody step up to the plate!

[Carolus]

There is apparently a terrorist attack unfolding in Russian Dagestan. 

An Orthodox Church and a synagogue were attacked by men with automatic weapons. Hostages were taken in the church. A local policeman was killed.

If this causes a wave of anti-muslim anger in Putin's Russia, it would be the funniest thing. Dagestan is a huge recruitment centre for Russia.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

It's great that Germany is stepping up alongside Poland and the UK but ya, Ukraine needs more. 

Do they?  Have we not seen reports of problems getting enough Ukrainian volunteers?  Western nations can only support training if people show up to fight.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-draft-b2ca1d0ecd72019be2217a653989fbc2

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/25/europe/ukraine-draft-law-conscription-intl/index.html

https://theconversation.com/ukraines-draft-woes-leave-the-west-facing-pressure-to-make-up-for-the-troop-shortfall-231348

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150

To my mind this trend is the most concerning for Ukraine and the West of the entire war.  We often note that Putin is signalling and posturing that Russia can outlast the West in this war.  I am wondering if he does not have his sights set on Ukrainian endurance, not the West.  We do not have accurate numbers of Ukrainian force generation and recruitment but unless young men and woman keep signing up to fight it won’t matter how many training centres we setup.

 

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, Carolus said:

There is apparently a terrorist attack unfolding in Russian Dagestan. 

An Orthodox Church and a synagogue were attacked by men with automatic weapons. Hostages were taken in the church. A local policeman was killed.

If this causes a wave of anti-muslim anger in Putin's Russia, it would be the funniest thing. Dagestan is a huge recruitment centre for Russia.

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/23/world/europe/russia-attack-dagestan.html

Gunmen Kill at Least 6 at Synagogue and Churches in Russian Republic

Gunmen killed at least a half-dozen police officers and a priest in Dagestan in what appeared to be coordinated attacks, local officials said.

 

Article on the incident.

 

[billbindc]

If accurate...wow: 

 

[Pete Wenman]

Maybe linked to @billbindc post above

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

Including this today because I thought one bit was particularly interesting:  Putin says he'll host 43,000 displaced palestinians for a limited duration.  Limited, I suspect, because the males will be forced into the war as cannon fodder and the rest will be worked as slave labor in arms factories or brothels until they die.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/23/2248183/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Terror-attack-targets-synagogue-and-church-in-Dagestan?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-drones-warfare-robots-florian-seibel-defense/

Florian Seibel has seen the future of war — and it has robots in it. He now wants to convince Ukraine — and Europe — that they need to embrace autonomous weapons.

A former helicopter pilot in the German army, 44-year-old Seibel is the chief executive of Quantum Systems, a Munich-based company that boasts Silicon Valley wizard Peter Thiel among its investors. The company builds reconnaissance drones used by Ukraine to fend off Russia’s invasion.

 

Proof that people are working on autonomous drones.

[dan/california]

This may not amount to much, but I am extremely tempted to at least classify it as creaking noise.

[MikeyD]

Using the states beyond the Urals as the primary resource for endless meat assaults was bound to foment civil unrest. Also, the Kremlin allying itself with Iran was bound to rankle Sunni Muslims in the region. That's like siding with Rome during the Thirty Years War.

[cesmonkey]

Rybar reports that all 5 ATACMS launched toward Crimea, but one of those had its submunitions fall on a beach and cause multiple casualties on civilians vacationing there.

I wonder, is it ever a factor in the air defenses of Western militaries to avoid intercepting targets over civilian population centers when possible?

 

[Fenris]

One way RU keeps the ranks filled

Quote

I summarized a Russian recruitment post on VK. This is what they offer people to die in Ukraine. 

I compared this to an average Russian pay in the central parts of Russia, 45k ruble per month. 

Signup bonus + WIA-disabled is a 8 year salary payout.

 

[FancyCat]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Do they?  Have we not seen reports of problems getting enough Ukrainian volunteers?  Western nations can only support training if people show up to fight.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-draft-b2ca1d0ecd72019be2217a653989fbc2

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/25/europe/ukraine-draft-law-conscription-intl/index.html

https://theconversation.com/ukraines-draft-woes-leave-the-west-facing-pressure-to-make-up-for-the-troop-shortfall-231348

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150

To my mind this trend is the most concerning for Ukraine and the West of the entire war.  We often note that Putin is signalling and posturing that Russia can outlast the West in this war.  I am wondering if he does not have his sights set on Ukrainian endurance, not the West.  We do not have accurate numbers of Ukrainian force generation and recruitment but unless young men and woman keep signing up to fight it won’t matter how many training centres we setup.

 

I believe part of the problem of the lack of volunteers is that training is not sufficient enough, long enough or the training personnel aren't enough nor well qualified enough to train and so that increases the reluctance of conscripts to join instead of dodge if they aren't assured of proper training. 

From WP, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/ukraine-training-soldiers-mobilization-war/ , if the words of the Ukrainian personnel in the article span true for the majority of Ukraine's recruitment and training pipeline, of which only a small part is quoted below, there are signs that trainers and their lack of quality is a serious issue:

1. personnel in the military since 2022 but in the rear have been not trained despite 2 years passing.

2. lack of equipment in training centers, veterans and trained personnel are probably all needed and hoarded on the frontlines instead of returning home to become trainers. large numbers of existing trained personnel by NATO before the invasion are depleted. 

3. training centers and systems aren't developed, the NATO training center in Western Ukraine was shut down at the beginning of the invasion. 

4. I believe Haudiuk has mentioned it, certain brigades are preferred and make efforts to take the best personnel in the pipeline. 

5. quality of personnel trained by the pipeline is panned as useless and require extensive training on the frontlines.

Article notably says that lack of training is a big fear for draft dodging, in that sense, expanding Western efforts to provide training and trainers and the space needed for that is essential for raising the morale of those being sought for conscription and thinking of dodging. 

Quote

Ukrainian commanders have long griped about lackluster preparation for recruits at training centers. But with Russia on the offensive, the persistent complaints are a reminder that a newly adopted mobilization law intended to widen the pool of draft-eligible men is just one step in solving the military’s personnel problems.

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.

“We had guys that didn’t even know how to disassemble and assemble a gun,” said a 28-year-old deputy battalion commander from the 93d Mechanized Brigade, whom The Washington Post agreed to identify by his call sign, Schmidt, according to Ukrainian military protocol.

Schmidt said that he spent the first week with soldiers transferred from rear posts just making sure each one fired at least one box of bullets — some 1,500 shots — daily before moving on to more complex tasks. Within weeks, these soldiers could be fighting near the embattled town of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces have been making advances.

“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”

To get more troops to the battlefield immediately, Zelensky’s recently appointed military chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has redeployed people who were previously serving in jobs such as guarding bridges and other infrastructure far from the combat zone to brigades engaged in some of the fiercest fighting.

For front-line commanders, any new troops are welcome, given that some units have endured months without reinforcements. But many of these redeployed arrivals appear ill-prepared, commanders said, despite many having served in the military since the start of Russia’s invasion more than two years ago, albeit far from the battlefield.

An officer who has spent more than a year instructing new soldiers at one of Ukraine’s facilities said the training centers are low on Soviet-caliber ammunition because it is being saved for troops on the battlefield. That means recruits get little experience firing live rounds. The officer said the training center received just 20 bullets per person.

A current priority for Ukraine’s General Staff is securing more training for recruits abroad — at facilities that can’t be targeted by Russian bombardment, unlike those in Ukraine. Britain so far has provided the most basic training for Ukrainians. In a potential boost, France is considering sending instructors to Ukraine to help prepare draftees, Syrsky said in a post on social media.

The prospect of being sent to dangerous front-line positions without adequate training is a main reason many Ukrainian men fear conscription. As part of a recruitment effort, the National Guard’s Khartia Brigade has billboards across the country promising “60 days of preparation.”

 

Edited Monday at 03:48 AM by FancyCat