How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

And now for something funny that you guys in particular should enjoy:

 

[Vergeltungswaffe]

Superior meme.

[Peregrine]

Pretty sure a Putin government could argue the drive to Kyiv is 95 or even 100% successful so it's going better than MG.

Any chance of schwimmwagen tractors making into CMBS based on their anecdotal but seemingly extensive use.

 

[Battlefront.com]

https://pixelforest.itch.io/farmers-stealing-tanks

No explanation needed

Steve

[Peregrine]

Tractors got some serious drift happening. Not quite sim enough for me.

Great music. Can we still customize our loading/splash screen music?

 

[Kinophile]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/15/opinions/russia-ukraine-petraeus-bergen/index.html

Pretty good summary of RUS performance in various areas. Very understated, lacks our more Man-On-The-Street "ROFL!? "s.

Plus no tractor jokes

[Doc844]

In reference to Ukraine's counter offensive, the main news broadcasters havent mentioned a thing about this, not totally surprised to be honest.  Has it been verified by any other sources yet 

 

Edit. I did find a mention of it on Ukraine Media https://uacrisis.org/en/day-20-of-war-ukraine-on-counter-attack-russia-quits-council-of-europe-ukraine-russia-talks-to-continue

Edited March 16, 2022 by Doc844

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back to the discussion about what might come after Putin.  First, a good OpEd that says what I've been saying for weeks now, but much better and all in one place

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/598108-why-vladimir-putin-will-fall?rl=1

OK, so once Putin is out of power... then what?

When the Allies defeated Nazi Germany they physically occupied it and had pretty much free reign to do as they pleased.  Forcing Germans to face up to their crimes was a huge part of what happened in the early days.  But it was also done in combination with the Marshall Plan.

Contrast this with WW1 when Germany wasn't fully defeated on the battlefield and wasn't occupied.  The Germans not only didn't get the benefit of a sort of Marshall Plan, they got stuck with a HUGE bill for the war and a forced peace deal that was arguably a "smash and grab" for the other colonial powers.  Even more galling was the "war guilt clause" that made Germans agree they were the only ones responsible for the war.  Which was total BS and they knew it, but what choice did they have at the time?  So that one in particular came back to bite the Allies (not US, because they opted out) years later.

As some of you have pointed out, nobody is going to militarily occupy Russia if Putin falls.  So you might be thinking this means we are in another Weimar situation in the making where we MIGHT get a slightly better form of Russia just as long as it takes to get a worse one ready to cause trouble.  I disagree that is inevitable.

Russia needs the rest of the world to turn the economic faucet back on for it to do anything more than struggle to survive day to day.  The smart thing to do is agree to lift sanctions and put in financial investments only if Russia agrees to certain political reforms.  In particular education, media, and democracy safeguards.  Russia could say no, of course, but there will be a lot of pressure to say yes.

You might think there's no precedent for this sort of approach.  Wrong.  This is how the former Soviet dominated Communist countries became a part of the EU and NATO.  Each of those organizations laid out certain requirements before being admitted.  Only a couple had any prior experience with any form of government even resembling democracy, and even then not for 50 some odd years.  Those countries voluntarily and fundamentally changed their ways because the incentives were so big.  Even when you look a the less successful members (Bulgaria in particular) they still are way better now than they ever were.

This could happen with Russia.  Might.  Possibly.  I don't have a crystal ball to know if it will happen, I just know that it is reasonable enough to hope that it can.  Maybe not right away, but not very far down the road.

Steve

The problem is that people in those formerly USSR-occupied countries weren't having a predator mentality for generations. They didn't need to be occupied and de-somethingfied because their people already didn't feel like ever attacking any neighbor. In fact people in some of those wanted to have even smaller borders of their own - e.g. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.

Thing is - there will be no reason for russian people to change if that financial faucet is reopened again once one putin is replaced with another putin.

Even if the most agreeable politician is put in power (which is fantasy) - he will quickly get spoiled by russians themselves propagating corruption and demanding USSR is restored once again (which is reality). And we will quickly have another big war.

Russians must be isolated if they are to change. Because if that "money faucet" is open again - russians will learn nothing. It will be literally 1991 all over again.

[John Kettler]

10 hours ago, keas66 said:

Elements of the  1st ABCT arriving in Mannheim  ?

 

1 ABCT, 3 ID was shown several times on Twitter last week drawing Stocks-2 equipment from the POMCUS near Mannheim, Germany. Included in that was were numerous Abrams tanks. Based on what I can recall, Stocks-2 had not been used in quite some time. My ex-Army Scouts brother cautions that this could simply be a unit getting ready to go on combat exercies, but I have the strong feeling that part of this is signaling, both to the Kremlin and our NATO allies, of how seriously we take what's going on in Ukraine and where it might go from there. 

Regards,

John. Kettler

[John Kettler]

9 hours ago, DesertFox said:

I have my doubts that the vid is legit.

US troops left Mannheim and Heidelberg area in 2011 and the M1 on the train look a lot like the 105mm version to me.

[edit] Addendum: After looking deeper into this I need to correct myself. Apparently 1st ABCT is in the process of being activated and material which was stored in Coleman worksite (which had been reactivated 2015), Mannheim is being shipped to Grafenwoehr Training ground. So those M1s in the vid could very well be M1A2s with 120mm Smoothbore. Vid is too unsharp to really see that.

Bundeswehr tests new heavy equipment transporters, helps deliver Army Preposition Stocks-2 | Article | The United States Army

US Army lädt zum Besuch auf Coleman ein | Mannheim.de

DesertFox,

In a nutshell, this is REFORGER, but on a smaller scale (so far) than the full-blown version. Most interesting article on the move.

Regards,

John Kettler

[CAZmaj]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

The problem is that people in those formerly USSR-occupied countries weren't having a predator mentality for generations. They didn't need to be occupied and de-somethingfied because their people already didn't feel like ever attacking any neighbor. In fact people in some of those wanted to have even smaller borders of their own - e.g. Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia was never occupied by the USSR and was never in a Warsaw Pact.

[John Kettler]

9 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

DesertFox,

At least 4 were destroyed utterly, but it's hard to say beyond that. Certainly, there could be a great deal more damage than what we see here, and all the helicopters surviving in the vicinity will need to be meticulously gone over. Wonder what the Ukrainians used? If MRLs, did they use unitary warheads or cluster munitions? Was right in my earlier comment to Haiduk, the towering smoke columns in the distance shot yesterday were indeed from burning POL, just that the fuel tanks were inside the helicopters!

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 16, 2022 by John Kettler

[BletchleyGeek]

4 hours ago, Rokossovski said:

When combined with the reports of progress in cease-fire talks, the Russian moves to menace Odessa from the sea and the reports of multiple Ukrainian counter-offensives suggest the possibility that the timing of some of these actions may be driven by a desire for immediate leverage in the talks rather than being the product of purely military calculations.

In particular, the timing of Ukrainian counter-offensives could be especially important in this struggle -- I hope that they are well-timed rather than being initiated prematurely as a result of political calculations.

Zelenskiy is being reported on several media outlets as "admitting that Ukraine will never join NATO because we see now that door us has been closed to us". Given the very poor track record of Ukrainian-English translators so far, see the "all casualties are KIA" confusion, I am unsure exactly who was the subject of "closing the door". It does sound like a concession to me - when translated. I would appreciate a transcript from the locals on this thread. 

Regarding the counteroffensives etc. it was obvious on the situation maps made by people like JominiOfTheWest that the Ukraine Armed Forces were concentrating west and east of Kiev. A couple days back our fan of Jomini decided to edit out Ukraine units from his maps upon request. So I guess that a counterstroke against the Russian "pincers" on Kyiv was literally written on the wall.

The movements in Kherson are a surprise, didn't see any new UKR large units identified there. The 53rd Motorised Bde, and 17th Tank Bde were the two large units reported in the area, and had been so for a while.

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[John Kettler]

Here is a VG article from The Drive on Russian artillery (then) threatening Ukraine. What's marvelous about it are embedded tweet videos showing the various pieces of the artillery units, such as , for example, Reostat for the VDV. This is the kind of look not commonly seen when discussing artillery, where the focus is solely on the firing unit and not the supporting players, if you will.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44579/this-is-russias-much-feared-artillery-arsenal-that-could-wreak-havoc-on-ukraine

Regards,

John Kettler
 

[TheVulture]

Russian group destroyed near Trostyanets. The big question, if you look where that is on the map, is how the hell did they get there. I'm guessing coming out of Transnistria is plausible?

 

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, Erwin said:

This from CivDiv posted in General Discussion forum seemed very insightful re the Russia-Ukraine situation:

 

 

Almost unbelievable and incomprehensible (and shocking) is his thesis that the Russian education system broke down over 25 years and that means that Russia has one of the least educated and worst-trained population of any "advanced nation".  ...And that its leadership comes only from a pool of about 150 people who are competent to run a nation.  ...And the final nail in the coffin (according to Zaihan) is that partially due to the massive losses from WW1, the Stalin era and then WW2, that Russia's population is declining and it cannot for long support itself or remain a viable nation...  So, Ukraine may be its last "hurrah"... 

Erwin,

Renowned military historian Chris Bellamy, in his magisterial Absolute War, did some analysis of Soviet demographics before and after the GPW and concluded, in a separate section before the main text, that the combination of GPW population losses and all the millions and millions of births that didn't happen as a result were what ultimately doomed the Soviet state. Believe he said that by early 1970s the demographic handwriting was on the wall on this score. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 16, 2022 by John Kettler

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russian group destroyed near Trostyanets. The big question, if you look where that is on the map, is how the hell did they get there. I'm guessing coming out of Transnistria is plausible?

 

Trostyanets is in Sumy oblast. NE.

Probably made an error with coords when putting that bomb symbol onto the map

[Rokossovski]

13 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Russian group destroyed near Trostyanets. The big question, if you look where that is on the map, is how the hell did they get there. I'm guessing coming out of Transnistria is plausible?

There appear to be multiple places by that name in Ukraine. What appears to be the biggest such town is located near Sumy. Trostianets - Wikipedia. That location would also be more consistent with where we have been seeing fighting up to now.

[Ninja'd by kraze]

Edited March 16, 2022 by Rokossovski
To note kraze's ninja work.

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Hi-Res Pictures on the arty-strike at Kherson Airbase:

Ukraine Strikes Back: Barrage Leaves Russian-Occupied Kherson Airbase In Flames (thedrive.com)

 

 

DesertFox,

There's a wealth of material there. From a damage standpoint, it's really a shame the fire axis didn't permit firing down the ramp rather than perpendicular to it. A facility map of the airport would be a valuable aid to BDA, because then we could tell what was where the visible ramp fire is burning.

Regards,

John Kettler

[TheVulture]

33 minutes ago, kraze said:

Trostyanets is in Sumy oblast. NE.

Probably made an error with coords when putting that bomb symbol onto the map

That makes more sense. Thanks for the correction. 

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And now for something funny that you guys in particular should enjoy:

 

It does seem like they are working from a long list of fiascoes and want to check all the boxes before this war is over..

[TheVulture]

Russian convoy on Ushakova avenue in Kherson. 

 

Picking a still from around 14 seconds, I've found where this is on google streetview to figure out that they are heading south-east, but it's not obvious from that what they are doing. I'd guess moving in to central Kherson - if they were advancing out of Kherson or moving back across the Dneipr, I don't think they'd be going down the avenue in that direction, but maybe someone more local knows better.

[Haiduk]

Grads of 128th mountain-assault brigade strike Russian pontoon crossing and vehicles somewhere in Luhansk oblast

UKR recon UAV Leleka-100 during surveilance mission spotted Russian Buk SAM, launching the missile. There was coordinates were transmitted to nearest 152 mm battery and Buk was destroyed.

 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

Just goes to show how big a rout the Ukrainians suffered in the south, and how poorly their initial counterattack went.

One of the reasons of Russian fast advance in Kherson oblast in first days of war, which mentioned in local twitters is betrayal of Kherson SBU high-ranked officer, which supply Russians with detailed information about our positions, plans, reserves etc. Reportedly Russians in first hours of attack caused many losses with helicopters and artillery strikes and forced Ukrainans to retreat in disorder. Chief of Kherson administration and city mayor also almost foiled the establishing of Territorial defense units in the city and around. Units were on the paper, but in real they almost hadn't a weapon. This have to be object of investigation after the war.

Regarding "poorly counterattack", there is unknown in what day and where this really was filmed. There is quiet from the morning in Kyiv. Now already about a week we have information about developments with 1-2 days delay. For example, the video with column strike near Brovary was filmed on 9th March and issued 10th or 11th.  What I know to this time, our forces pushed the enemy further in NW direction, but no any officially confirmed information, just twitter "insides"

Upd. Last "insides", Bucha and Hostomel are recaptured, mop-up operations is continuing. This is photo of Hostomel (?) street with destroyed BMD. Russians, whithdrawing, took as hostages local adminisration of Bucha and civil volunteers, which were involved in humanitarian aid for citizens.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, TheVulture said:

That makes more sense. Thanks for the correction. 

I've seen this sort of error before.  If someone popped in "Springfield, United States" they'd get a whole bunch of very, very, very different locations   I've caught this a couple of times on LiveLeak.

Steve