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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks!  OK, so it is as I thought.  For sure the unit exists and is separate from other units, though it is likely fairly small (100s and not 1000s).  If it has been enlarged, then it likely was enlarged with Ukrainians.  Which is fine, because Putin obviously thinks this is how insurrections work :)

Steve

Well, since Ukraine does not really exist and has always and will always be part of Russia, then it is an insurrection! Duh!

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2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Actually the US Marines are technically part of the US Navy, but generally are treated as their own branch.

From 2001 to 2019, proposals to rename the Department of the Navy to the Department of the Navy and Marine Corps were introduced with wide support in the United States Congress, but failed due to the opposition of Senator and former U.S. Navy officer John McCain.

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There are claims two more villages, away from main "axis of advance" ( :) ) were attacked. Could be Psyops so take with solid grain of salt.

Also Girkin made acidic, ironic rant about whole situation, but wait till Dmitryi will translate it professionally.

 

Btw. regarding RVC and its leaders; it's war, but worth to remember nonetheless:

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664

Edited by Beleg85
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On 5/20/2023 at 4:54 AM, Haiduk said:

During Russian assault of UKR positions in Pervomaiske area (Avdiivka direction) Javelin operator of 59th mot.inf.brigade can't lock Russian tank on about 300 m, because LOS was closed by dust and smoke. Only when dust curtain scattered enough, operator could lock on target and launched missile

 

Interesting. I wouldn't have thought that dust would be a problem for the Javelin.

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On 5/20/2023 at 5:34 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, probably too detailed for the comfort of military censors.  It was a very good video though.

Sorry I missed it (downside of trying to catch up on these posts after falling a few days behind). But I suppose opsec is more important that my desire to understand the war. I hope it will be back up after the war.

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4 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

Interesting. I wouldn't have thought that dust would be a problem for the Javelin.

I think dust is a pretty broad spectrum obscurant. Probably because it's suspended solids rather than vapours and droplets constituting a large part, as is the case for smoke.

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36 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

And now the operation is defeated? 

https://kyivindependent.com/counter-terrorist-operation-in-russias-belgorod-region-canceled/

The Invaders seem fairly unconcerned...

 

Possibly they circled/are circling back through to UKR? 

Would make a ton of sense to circle back that way. Keep the Russians jumping as long as possible, and then drive back over the border right when they are about to drop the hammer. I would love to se another SAM ambush ruin the Russians day, again.

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13 minutes ago, poesel said:

?

Bulbenfuhrer, sorry (damn dyslesxia). Bulba is "potato" in Belarussian, the second part is obvious. Common nickname for Lukashenko in BL, UA and also here, connected to his agrarian utopia he likes to view his country as.

 28572543-d3af-4d2f-a0ff-da65118feb16.web

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https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/23/hungary-continues-to-block-release-of-eu-military-funds-for-ukraine

The €500 million is part of the bloc's European Peace Facility, which aims to help embattled countries, such as Ukraine.

EU foreign ministers have failed to agree on new funds to finance weapons for Ukraine, after Hungary blocked the decision over the country's biggest Bank, OTP Bank, appearing on Ukraine's list of "international sponsors of the war".

Ukraine's anti-corruption agency blacklisted the Hungarian bank because they say "it provides preferential credit terms to the Russian military, i.e. actually rewards them for the committed war crimes."

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13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The size of the RDK/LSR force is too small to stay in Russia for too long.  Russia has enough forces in the immediate area and in FSB reserve to handle them relatively quickly.  Couple of days maximum before they withdraw, a week if Russian forces are even less capable than I think they are.  For all we know it might already be over.

I'm not saying you are wrong at all, but remember what we all thought about Ukraine's ability to hold out against the Russians in Feb 2022. We were all taken by surprise at the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. 

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2 minutes ago, Probus said:

I'm not saying you are wrong at all, but remember what we all thought about Ukraine's ability to hold out against the Russians in Feb 2022. We were all taken by surprise at the tenacity of the Ukrainian defense. 

If the principle of economy of force applies, I would imagine the best option is to pull back after Russia begins to seriously deploy and then do it again at another point in order to create the least efficient situation possible for the Russian MoD.

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On 5/20/2023 at 6:07 AM, Battlefront.com said:

It is not difficult to imagine that Bakhmut will have as much impact on this war for Russia as something like Stalingrad did for the Germans in WW2.

I think I see Bakhmut as the culmination of a series of attritional battles which each sapped a chunk of the Russian strength. The first being Mariupol, the second being Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut being the last.

A closer parallel than Stalingrad might be the Battle of the Somme (although honestly I'm going back and forth on which battle is closer, there are no perfect parallels in history, but the Somme fits the narrative I'm trying to paint at the moment so I'm rolling with it). For the kind of military impact it had of course, not for how it's remembered in the historiography (everyone seems to think the Somme was a disaster for the British, conveniently forgetting that the battle consisted of more than just the first day of the battle). Stalingrad will definitely be closer from a historiography perspective. The Somme didn't gain much for the British in terms of ground, but from an attritional standpoint the battle was a major Entente victory.

The German high command felt that they could not afford a second Somme. But Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut basically hit the Russians with three Sommes in a row. None of them gained the Ukrainians any ground (in fact they all cost them ground). But each was a grinding attritional slog that the Russians could ill afford. They each contributed to the exhaustion of Russian forces. And with Bakhmut they are completely tapped out.

Although honestly I thought that Russian offensive potential had been exhausted by Severodonetsk. I wasn't counting on them moving the goalposts for just how little combat power can still count as "offensive potential".

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3 hours ago, Splinty said:

Actually the US Marines are technically part of the US Navy, but generally are treated as their own branch.

The Commandant of the Marine Corps historically reported to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), which is the Navy. The Commandant now directly to the Secretary of the Navy to whom the CNO also reports. So, by extension, it appears that the CNO has the Navy, and the Commandant has the Marine Corps. The Commandant also now has a seat on the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

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9 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

The Commandant now directly to the Secretary of the Navy to whom the CNO also reports. So, by extension, it appears that the CNO has the Navy, and the Commandant has the Marine Corps.

I'd think SecNav/DoN was "The Navy" top dog... so the floaty-fighty ones and the jarheads are both still Navy... Even if the Marines and Navy are equals on the Joint Chiefs. Similar arrangement in DoA, too, with the Army and the  National Guard both having seats on the JCS.

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3 hours ago, Yet said:

Oryx mentions Ukr lost 62 fighters, so 40 new F16s aint such a big changer. It merely would make sure that activities in the air can continue instead of cease to exist.

 

 

If we say about fighters, that 29 were lost (MiG-29 and Su-27)

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3 hours ago, Yet said:

Oryx mentions Ukr lost 62 fighters, so 40 new F16s aint such a big changer. It merely would make sure that activities in the air can continue instead of cease to exist.

This plus the donated Soviet era aircraft probably brings them back to prewar strength, so that's significant.  The other thing is that the F-16 has capabilities that Soviet type aircraft don't have *and* automatic support for any NATO munition or EW package without the need for special engineering.

It's a really big deal because Russia has been struggling with the depleted Ukrainian airforce with weaponry that they are very familiar with.  Ukraine can now entertain doing very interesting things it previously could not do.

Steve

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