How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now here's a yacht.  Just docked in Trieste and seized.  Belongs to oligarch Andrey Igorevich Melnichenko and is worth about HALF A BILLION Euro.  And yet I find it ugly, so there's that:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502459553211949058/photo/1

Steve,

$600 million dollars worth of butt ugly. Have never seen anything as hideous as that for a yacht, never mind a mega yacht. Looks like the out of wedlock child of an incompetent blacksmith and a ship designer with no understanding of beauty at all.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian troops abandoned Volnovakha town, Donetsk oblast. After about two weeks of bombing and arty/MLRS shelling, the town is almost completely ruined.

 There is critical situation in besieged Mariupol. Russian aviation, heavy MLRS and artillery continuously shell and bomb the city. Part of the city is under enemy control, but UKR forces are continuing to fight, having approx 1:15...20 in personnel. There are many destructions, often not possible to bury killed civilians, they still lay on the streets. Officillay confirmed about 1580 civilain victims, but this number in real much more. The dead are buried in mass graves or directly in the yards. No electricity, no water, and -10 degreez of cold at the night. 

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

50 minutes ago, Hister said:

Glad you guys liked the Julia Ioffe interview. 

 

Will ask again about the TU-142 Strizh incident. What is your take on it, was it more likely operated by Russia or by Ukraine and why you think so? Thanx.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia

 

Here's my analysis:

Wikipedia lists the following details

Quote

The unmanned aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace around 23:23 EET, where it was observed by the Romanian Air Force and flew for 3 minutes.^[5] Afterwards, it continued flying through Hungarian airspace for the next 40 minutes, where it was also observed by the Hungarian Air Force.^[6] It then entered Croatian airspace flying at a speed of 700 km/h (380 kn; 430 mph) and altitude of 1,300 metres (4,300 ft),^[7] where it was picked up by Croatian military radar.^[8] After spending 7 minutes in Croatian airspace, it crashed in the Croatian capital, some 50 m (160 ft) away from the Stjepan Radić Student Residence Hall. 

Taking that speed and those timings, that's about 35km through Romanian airspace, 470km through Hungarian and 80km through Croatia, ending at Zagreb. The Tu-141 has a range of around 1000km, although that looks rounded off and is also going to depend on weather conditions etc.

Taking all that at face value, 1000km in a straight line doesn't put it anywhere inside Ukraine that Russia could have launched it. Vinnytsia is about as far into Ukraine. Since it is essentially a cruise-missile it doesn't have to travel in a straight line though, but obviously that gives it the furthest range. Transnistria might just about be a possibility if you definitely want it to be a Russian launch, but it looks far more likely that it was Ukrainian.

[Kinophile]

Mass graves.

Anytime Putin wants something during the negotiations, Zelensky should just say Mass Graves of Women and Children.

It won't shame him, he won't care, but it'll remind why NOTHING should be given to that ****er.

Unconditional and immediate withdrawal.

All POWs and political prisoners returned.

Removal of arty 50km back from border.

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Asked you before to recommend a good online English site or book for Russian weaponry ID but never heard back. 

It's hard to say... Maybe this http://bastion-karpenko.ru/publikacii/

Or maybe this... http://www.rusarmy.com/uk/index.html

Never searched specially such resources

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Very interesting... and terrifying! The lining with round fragments tells you what this drone is about.

As far as I understand these UAVs are not autonomous like the Turkish Kargu (basically a flying mine that homes onto whatever looks like a "designated target").

That little one is more like a cheap miniature cruise missile, and it has also an image based target designation mode. It could likely be the case that someone was guiding it into the target. BTW @Haiduk, are you still in Kyiv? Are the Ukraine security forces there still engaging Russian Armed SOF infiltrated in the city?

Bletchley Geek,

Concur. It's essentially a flying MON or, in US parlance a Claymore mine. Though primarily an antipersonnel weapon, it would be highly effective vs soft targets, such as MT, EW, CPs, radio, microwave and radar facilities, helos and fixed wing aircraft on the ground. Hitting a building with it was a waste of the weapon. Also, the warhead fragment should be analyzed to see if warfarin/rat poison is present. It's an anticoagulant often used with suicide vests in particular to maximize civilian casualties via bleed out. Believe such Russian use, if proven, could justifiably be presented as evidence of CW employment.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian "shibboleth". Captured Russian diversant can't say word "palianytsia" correctly.

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Two more Bayraktar strikes. First target probably Uragan MLRS launcher

 

Haiduk, 

Am surprised they aimed at the cab and not the launcher itself, but after that the MRL is definitely not moving again and probably can't be fired, either.

Regards,

John Kettler

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk, 

Am surprised they aimed at the cab and not the launcher itself, but after that the MRL is definitely not moving again and probably can't be fired, either.

Regards,

John Kettler

It wouldn't really matter where they hit to disable the launcher - but it was of absolute importance to kill human filth that crewed it.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Splinty said:

No one, and I mean NO ONE who I knew during the introduction of the original MREs thought Chicken a la King was the best of anything. It looked and smelled like dogs vomit. 

Splinty,

On second thought, believe it was turkey a la king, and maybe it was the best of what he had available that day in the carton he had. Ate it cold, too, since I believe the heater packs hadn't been included with the MREs yet or there was some other issue. The roadwheel cookie was good, though.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian "shibboleth". Captured Russian diversant can't say word "palianytsia" correctly.

 

Haiduk,

Full marks for pulling an analogy straight out of the mists of history that most western readers won't know and fewer still will understand!

Regards,

John Kettler

[panzermartin]

This is like ostfront all over again. Russians advancing vs tactically superior, better organized and equipped pockets of defenders that inflict heavy losses on them but ultimately withdraw under sheer numbers and mass artillery firepower. Germans couldn't find an antidote against the massive use of Soviet artillery,it's the same story. 

[akd]

Ukrainians dropping RPG warheads from commercial drones:

 

Edited March 12, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Artillery of 128th mountain-assault brigade shells the enemy armored vehicles. Two close hits, Russian (or LNR) vehicles try to leave kill zone

A good example of how effective artillery can be even if it doesn't hit the targets.  Whatever the enemy units were doing at the time was disrupted.  Now the unit needs to regroup and reassess their mission.  All of you guys here understand that can have a significant impact on an ongoing tactical engagement.

Steve

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

This is like ostfront all over again. Russians advancing vs tactically superior, better organized and equipped pockets of defenders that inflict heavy losses on them but ultimately withdraw under sheer numbers and mass artillery firepower. Germans couldn't find an antidote against the massive use of Soviet artillery,it's the same story. 

Most losses to Russians now inflicts our artillery, which have targeting superiority due to drones and recon information

Edited March 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Combatintman]

55 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

George MC,

Many thanks for that uncut video and analysis. Absolutely concur the initial tank hit was from an NLAW, since it's plainly apparent the detonation is right over the turret, the aimpoint users are taught to hit. Since that was apparently the BTG CO's track, find myself wondering whether the NLAW guy knew what to look for so he could target it directly or just that the CO's number was up? Had no idea the BTG CO was in a tank, as was expecting there to be a command track in the sea of MTLB-Ms in the BTG. The ambush's occurring at the same site as in CMBS is "The Twilight Zone™" grade weird.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

The analysis is off in regards to the firing points ... here's something I posted elsewhere

The analysis of the firing points is a bit off and possibly because the Google Earth imagery is dated and possibly because they're not old school trained imagery analysts.  As can be seen from the video clip, the pedestrian crossings on Google Earth have gone and a pedestrian underpass has been put in.  The bus stop or whatever it was on the right hand side of the highway has been moved closer to the T junction opposite the garage but the central strip of the highway seems consistent with the Google Earth Imagery.  I had to plot the first obvious NLAW firing point and then measure that to the impact point to give me a scale to work with in order to confirm that the bus stop on the right had moved.  This allowed me then to confirm the position of the second targeted tank.  Anyway ... enough of that, you want to see pictures obviously ...

With regard to your definition of spitting distance further upthread then if you can spit 40m John then yes it is spitting distance.

[Splinty]

33 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Splinty,

On second thought, believe it was turkey a la king, and maybe it was the best of what he had available that day in the carton he had. Ate it cold, too, since I believe the heater packs hadn't been included with the MREs yet or there was some other issue. The roadwheel cookie was good, though.

Regards,

John Kettler

No heater packs with the original brown bag MREs. I was an E4 in Germany when they started hitting the line units in the 80s. The only ones I found edible were the Ham slice, and the dehydrated pork and beef patties.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Splinty

[John Kettler]

3 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The analysis is off in regards to the firing points ... here's something I posted elsewhere

The analysis of the firing points is a bit off and possibly because the Google Earth imagery is dated and possibly because they're not old school trained imagery analysts.  As can be seen from the video clip, the pedestrian crossings on Google Earth have gone and a pedestrian underpass has been put in.  The bus stop or whatever it was on the right hand side of the highway has been moved closer to the T junction opposite the garage but the central strip of the highway seems consistent with the Google Earth Imagery.  I had to plot the first obvious NLAW firing point and then measure that to the impact point to give me a scale to work with in order to confirm that the bus stop on the right had moved.  This allowed me then to confirm the position of the second targeted tank.  Anyway ... enough of that, you want to see pictures obviously ...

With regard to your definition of spitting distance further upthread then if you can spit 40m John then yes it is spitting distance.

Combatintman,

Good one! Naturally, was using the expression in terms of spitting distance relative to weapon range, especially the NLAW. Impressive updating of imagery and analysis from it!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

Unfortunately no more info. Russians doesn't give more. 

Previously V was stated as Naval infantry. But I think it's erronous and used for Airborne (it's always BMD) and Chechen.

Initialy Vs were stated as being in the north (Kyiv area). I don't know if it's still the case or V is also for Airborne in the south (eg 76 GAAD)

I think the marks and particular units is coincidental.  Meaning, all units in the north had Vs and most were Airborne, therefore confused into thinking V was specifically for airborne. 

The primary purpose of these marks is to avoid friendly fire.  For that to be effective the trigger pullers need to know what symbols to avoid shooting at.  Too many symbols could cause confusion or uncertainty, which is exactly the opposite of their intended purpose.

The initial invasion force consisted of three primary groups... northern forces were to take Kiev, central forces Kharkiv and then move south to cut off DLPR line, southern forces spilling out to take Odessa to the west and act as a southern pincer to cut off the DLPR line.  The friendly forces in the DLPR region were apparently organizationally assigned to the central group, which makes sense.

As far as I can tell the initial marks represent:

V = forces coming out of Belarus

Z = forces coming out of Russia (including DLPR frontlines)

/ = forces coming out of Crimea (these were hastily painted most likely to preserve prewar OPSEC)

O = unknown, but they seem to be coming out of Belarus as well (of all markings these are the lest frequently seen)

Having different symbols for the different main efforts makes sense, though, as they all started out as distinctly separate forces with distinctly different missions. 

Recently there have been some V and Z marks seen in the south where normally only / marks are seen.  These units appear to be VDV units.  My thinking is they were either originally tasked with the other groups but were hurridly retasked to the south once it was clear that area had the most hope of a rapid breakthrough with possible strategic significance.

Steve

[sburke]

Zelensky reporting between 5-600 Russians surrendered yesterday.  Since start of war UKR troop losses at 1,300.

Around 1,300 Ukrainian troops killed and 600 Russian troops surrendered yesterday, says Zelensky (msn.com)

[BeondTheGrave]

20 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The analysis is off in regards to the firing points ... here's something I posted elsewhere

The analysis of the firing points is a bit off and possibly because the Google Earth imagery is dated and possibly because they're not old school trained imagery analysts.  As can be seen from the video clip, the pedestrian crossings on Google Earth have gone and a pedestrian underpass has been put in.  The bus stop or whatever it was on the right hand side of the highway has been moved closer to the T junction opposite the garage but the central strip of the highway seems consistent with the Google Earth Imagery.  I had to plot the first obvious NLAW firing point and then measure that to the impact point to give me a scale to work with in order to confirm that the bus stop on the right had moved.  This allowed me then to confirm the position of the second targeted tank.  Anyway ... enough of that, you want to see pictures obviously ...

With regard to your definition of spitting distance further upthread then if you can spit 40m John then yes it is spitting distance.

I had a question with this video. When the first tank is hit, you see the missile impact somewhere on the upper turret. It seems to penetrate as the tank later brews up. But you can also see something either go through the far side or carry overtop of the tank and impact with some force on the berm or ditch on the far side of the road. Does anyone have a guess as to what that is? A missile fragment? A sabot? No way that an NLAW can make a through and through of a T-72 is there? 

[John Kettler]

45 minutes ago, akd said:

Ukrainians dropping RPG warheads from commercial drones:

 

akd,

Those don't look like RPG-7 type warheads to me. They look like these GPW RPG-43 antitank grenades, which which pack some 500 g of TNT, penetrate some 97 mm of RHA and have stabilizing streamers. Later model AT hand grenades used parachutes instead of streamers. 



Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 12, 2022 by John Kettler

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

/ = forces coming out of Crimea (these were hastily painted most likely to preserve prewar OPSEC)

Indeed this is just wide slashed Z

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Those don't look like RPG-7 type warheads to me. They look like these GPW RPG-43 antitank

Usually old RKG-3 HEAT grenades use, reworked for UAV drop.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Mass graves.

Anytime Putin wants something during the negotiations, Zelensky should just say Mass Graves of Women and Children.

I watched some of the footage of filling the mass graves last night.  I'm not going to type what that was like for me.  So just fill in the blanks.

Unfortunately, it is likely this footage will be turned into Russian propaganda "showing" Ukrainian Nazis committing acts of genocide against Russians living in Ukraine.  Misusing footage to create a false narrative is a standard, even central, component of Russian disinformation.

Steve