How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

With that much they probably could

Steve

Hah! And in that scenario, it’s highly plausible that NATO, the EU, etc would quickly all step in to bring it to an end, a la the USA and Soviet Union repeatedly bringing Israel to a cease fire and negotiations each time Israel began threatening Damascus, and taking the Sinai. Could be a decent landing pad for the war?

Edited January 4, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Zeleban]

 

An interesting article about the state of strategic aviation and the fleet of the Russian Federation:

The potential of the Russians to attack our cities depends not only on the available stock of missiles. Here you need to see what they have with carriers for cruise missiles.

 

"On paper", the Russians have as many as 60 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, each of which can take either up to 6 Kh-555 missiles or up to 8 Kh-101 missiles.

In fact, a maximum of 50% of them are combat-capable, at the same time for an attack on Ukraine, orks raised only up to 20 Tu-95MS aircraft, with a "ceiling" of 6-8 missiles, there were 1-3 missiles on board.

Yes, the Tu-95MS is an effective bomber. But the average age of the "board" fluctuates at the level of 30-40 years, and obviously this excludes the possibility of flying with a full combat load. Therefore, for example, even if the Russians would like to shoot as many as 120 missiles in one salvo, they can get a maximum of 60-70 missiles in one salvo.

With the Tu-160, the situation is even more specific for the Russians. "On paper" they have 16 such bombers, the "oldest" of which is only 35 years old, almost a third (or 6 units) were manufactured after the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s and 2000s. Each Tu-160 can carry up to 12 missiles of the X-101 or X-555 types, all 16 bombers could fire a total of up to 200 missiles at a time.

But something unknown happened to the Russians, and they did not use their Tu-160s at all for strikes on Ukraine during November-December 2022.

 

The Russians have something similar with their Tu-22M3, carriers of deadly Kh-22 or Kh-32 missiles.

"On paper" there are 60 such bombers, but no more than 10 for air strikes at the same time. With a combat load of up to 3 Kh-22 missiles, a maximum of one was taken on board. The "age" of the Russian Tu-22M3 also varies in the range of 30-40 years.

Russia has ships for launching "Calibers" concentrated in the temporarily occupied Crimea: 2 frigates of project 11356, 3 missile corvettes of project 21631 and four submarines of project 636, the total salvo is up to 56 missiles. (Another 1 frigate, 1 corvette and 2 submarines of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation were "stuck" near Syria before the start of the war, they could not return to the base, and that is why the Ukrainian naval forces constantly give reports in the Mediterranean Sea as well).

Surface ships with "Caliber" leave a maximum of 10 km from the coast not only because they are afraid of "Neptune". But also because they have chronic problems with power plants. In the summer, the Russians could launch only 2 submarines with "Caliber" at the same time, now launching even one submarine into the sea is a rarity.

It goes without saying that Russia is now trying to build new carriers for cruise missiles to replace the old ones.

For example, a new word "vosproizvodstvo" appeared in the Kremlin's novoyaz, and this is how they describe the production process of the Tu-160 from the "backlog" of the USSR. Indeed, it looks like this - the fuselage and other "stocks" stood idle at the plant for three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and now the Russians are building a bomber from it, under the index Tu-160M2. The first rolled out of the shop in January 2022, the second at the end of December of the same year.

The Russians are also completing two missile corvettes of the "Karakurt" project in the temporarily occupied Crimea, this is + 16 "Calibers" to the total salvo of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation.

While the situation for us is balanced by the disorganization of the enemy. The Russians have not yet been able to put the Tu-160M2, delivered in January, into service by the "Air and Space Forces of the Russian Federation". The Russian military-industrial complex is not yet capable of producing new titanium centerplanes for such bombers. And those two "Karakurt" rockets have been kept by the occupiers in Crimea "on trial" for almost a year.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I will preempt the Germany bashing accusations by stating, these moves to give equipment are done in coalition lockstep largely, so as long as Scholz pledges the Marders within a month to Ukraine, no bashing will occur. 

But definitively optics matter, sure we can debate if that is a IFV or APC or tank or what not, but I think the average person when looking at the below image, will conclude France is giving more than Germany. Marders may not cut it.

It's been in the main news here, and the AMX was described as a light tank. So a NATO nation sends tanks, that has been settled. I guess 'light' means we can't send heavy tanks, so no Leo2.

But since our minister of defense is in political trouble (again, and for two things at once) it might be a useful distraction to send more stuff to Ukraine. I hope they remember the stocks of Leo1s in the garage.

I'll keep you updated what is happening here, so you can keep on bashing.

[Bulletpoint]

What is the current situation in Ukraine regarding the electricity and water grid?

It seems to me that the Russian campaign to leave Ukrainians dark and cold has failed, as nearly every missile they launch is now being shot down. And as the Ukrainians are still able to repair any damage relatively quickly.

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But we are notoriously weak on assessing the outcome of this war here, I can only hope smarter people than me are on it.  

Hah hah hah! Well played. However please do recognize that proper forecasting assessments must apply likelihood; whether by percentage or a set of narrative labels defined by percentage ranges. They should be specific, include the dependent assumptions, and time frames - not indefinite. Think of this as a scenario’s meta data, not its story line. Otherwise they become the prognostications we see in popular columnists and cable news talking heads brigade. To me, we seem understandably stronger in well-formed forecasting of battlefield events, than in the murky long term outcome of this war.

PS Another element is keeping score, in order to refine forecasts. Steve does this pretty routinely, referring to past predictions and whether they have come to pass, and an assessment of how close a hit or miss was. The media columnists and talking heads rarely do this!

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[Zeleban]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

What is the current situation in Ukraine regarding the electricity and water grid?

It seems to me that the Russian campaign to leave Ukrainians dark and cold has failed, as nearly every missile they launch is now being shot down. And as the Ukrainians are still able to repair any damage relatively quickly.

In Krivoy Rog, the electricity situation remains stable. In my area, electricity is always available and only goes out on the day of the rocket attacks. And then during the day it is completely restored. In Irpin, my neighbors report that they have returned to the stabilization schedules of shutdown (4 hours of electricity, 4 hours of electricity off). When I left there in early December, the electricity was about 2-4 hours a day

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Turboprops are jets about as much as AMX-10 is a tank

Yes you are right. The AMX-10 is not a real tank.

I was just trying to say that I'm okay with the AMX-10 being called a "light tank" as long as it opens the possibility of Ukraine finally getting real Western made tanks during this war.

Now that the the tank taboo is broken maybe we can finally get the AFU some Western made aircraft like the F-16.

I jokingly suggested calling the F-16 a "light jet" if it would make the process of transferring it to the Ukraine Air Force faster, and maybe open the door for other Western made aircraft.

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Bulletpoint]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In Krivoy Rog, the electricity situation remains stable. In my area, electricity is always available and only goes out on the day of the rocket attacks. And then during the day it is completely restored. In Irpin, my neighbors report that they have returned to the stabilization schedules of shutdown (4 hours of electricity, 4 hours of electricity off). When I left there in early December, the electricity was about 2-4 hours a day

Thanks. So it seems to be correct that Putin's strategy of hitting power and water supplies has failed.

[Grossman]

In July 2022 US Congress gave approval for the US Air Force to train UKR pilots on F15's, F16's and other US aircraft. There's about 600 UKR folk hanging around in Texas at various Air Force bases.  With a 3 month minimum training period the first cohort should be ready for service. 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Eduard Ergashev, 30th separate special ELINT regiment "Sviatogor" of Rosgvardiya, Northern-Caucasus military district of Rosgvardiya. Was killed on 23rd of June

Major Ivan Matiushchenkov, HQ of 49th CAA, was killed on 8th of July, likely in Kherson oblast

Major Ainur Safiulin, HQ of 37th motor-rifle bigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was killed on 27th of December after missile strike in Kherson oblast

 

Lt.colonel of justice Yevgeniy Rybakov, chief deputy of control and investigation department of Investigation Committee of Russia. Was killed on 30th of December in Donetsk during strike at hotel "Victoria"

 

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, womble said:

I was thinking this, too. How long can they keep their bombers flying and their missiles rolling off production lines once sanctions get tightened and the loopholes they're currently using are closed down?

That’s the Big Question! 
When or whether the inflection point of a falling Russian capability curve clearly, irretrievably cross a rising Ukrainian curve? From the Russian perspective? Assumption being that nothing changes these curves directions. 

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

What is the current situation in Ukraine regarding the electricity and water grid?

It seems to me that the Russian campaign to leave Ukrainians dark and cold has failed, as nearly every missile they launch is now being shot down. And as the Ukrainians are still able to repair any damage relatively quickly.

In several past days we had two temeperature records, in Kyiv was +13, so loads on power grids were lesser and electricity cut-offs in Kyiv have been minimized. 

Though upcoming weekend will be with frosts up to -9. On Donbas up to -12...-14. In Russia even in border oblasts will be up to -15...-18 and Moscow and central part of country around -25. Syberia - 30...-42. I wonder how much mobiks will survive

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Ishchenko, likely HQ of 37th motor-rifle bigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district. Was killed on 27th of December after missile strike in Kherson oblast

 

Major (old photo when he was a captain) Nikolay Goncharov, engineer of unknown tank unit. Was killed on 12th of September

 

Major Alan Gazdanov, probably 49th separate special purpose brigade of Rosgvardiya, N.Osetia, Northern-Caucasus military district of Rosgvardiya

 

Major Aleksandr Seikayev, commander of separate medical battalion. Was killed on 3rd of January in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia oblast after missile strike

Lt.colonel <name unknown> Bachurin, deputy commander of 1444th rifle regiment of Samara oblast. Was killed on 1st of January during missile strike in Makiivka, Donetsk oblast

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

Name of the tank on turret - "Guchi" (misspelled Gucсi)

[Huba]

47 minutes ago, Grossman said:

In July 2022 US Congress gave approval for the US Air Force to train UKR pilots on F15's, F16's and other US aircraft. There's about 600 UKR folk hanging around in Texas at various Air Force bases.  With a 3 month minimum training period the first cohort should be ready for service. 

GLSDBs were supposed to be available in numbers about three months from now or so IIRC. It all looks like gearing up for The Spring Offensive. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

In July 2022 US Congress gave approval for the US Air Force to train UKR pilots on F15's, F16's and other US aircraft. There's about 600 UKR folk hanging around in Texas at various Air Force bases.  With a 3 month minimum training period the first cohort should be ready for service. 

Do those "other aircraft"  go-

bbbBBBBRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTttttttt!.... 

[Kinophile]

I wonder...

Does UKR intend to keep up the corrosive, tactical raiding/long range fires pressure on Russia, but no major offensive over Jan,  Feb? There's certainly no signage.  Kremina feels more like a steady push,  but there seems to be sustained (and sustainable) Ivan resistance. 

Say UKR start ramping up in March as their US  vacationing pilots and NATO trained ground pounders return and integrate,  gain some experience and iron out logistical/technical kinks, then go for the jugular in April/May? 

That gives them 3 months of relative rest/refit of worn out units, keep torturing the Ivan's logistics into funny shapes and solidify their own AD defenses (incl. versus any Iranian SRBM crap).

It plays to the UKR preference for corrosive shaping of Russian units and plans while they themselves gain in strength, then attack. 

It's what they've done each time and it's worked,  solidly. There's no tech the Russians can get that will counter this basic approach.

There's certainly nothing systemic they can do, or rather,  succeed at that will stop this plan. Mobiks won't be in better shape after 3  months if winter exposure...

Edited January 4, 2023 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

In July 2022 US Congress gave approval for the US Air Force to train UKR pilots on F15's, F16's and other US aircraft. There's about 600 UKR folk hanging around in Texas at various Air Force bases.  With a 3 month minimum training period the first cohort should be ready for service. 

What are your sources for this information?

[kevinkin]

The writer tries to simplify the endgame decisions for the West into a binary choice:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3795699-theres-a-way-to-end-putin-for-good/

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, womble said:

Hitler had 3 Army Groups and didn't manage it...

Yes, but they weren’t Ukrainian!

[NamEndedAllen]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The writer tries to simplify the endgame decisions for the West into a binary choice:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3795699-theres-a-way-to-end-putin-for-good/

Thanks for this link. Well worth the read. Both are scenarios we’ve pondered and discussed here. Would be strengthened were the ticking clock aspect been included, with an indication of which one they think is favored by it. Clearly a stark argument for their preferred outcome - the forced restoration of all occupied Ukraine. And a chilling warning against failure. 

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Turboprops are jets about as much as AMX-10 is a tank

Turboprops are jets! In fact, even the most modern turbofan engine is nothing more than a turboprop engine with a whole bunch of short propeller blades with a duct around them.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Turboprops are jets! In fact, even the most modern turbofan engine is nothing more than a turboprop engine with a whole bunch of short propeller blades with a duct around them.

Precisely! What is an AMX-10RC if not a light tank on wheels? 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

In July 2022 US Congress gave approval for the US Air Force to train UKR pilots on F15's, F16's and other US aircraft. There's about 600 UKR folk hanging around in Texas at various Air Force bases.  With a 3 month minimum training period the first cohort should be ready for service. 

Seems like major development. What is source?

 

An article about Bakhmut from usually well-connected reporter. Heavy casualties on both sides, but author states that Wagner creeping offensive seem to be loosing impetus:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/as-battle-of-bakhmut-nears-culmination-ukraines-artillery-gasps-for-more-ammo