sburke Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said: This might be something that really shakes faith in the Putin within Russia more than anything. When their Tsar has promised help and evacuation but nothing of the sort turns up and law and order utterly collapses without even a Ukrainian presence. Faith in the system cant exactly be high right now. This isn't the first time as I recall. When the Russian anti Putin forces crossed the border last year the same thing occurred. As soon as the forces that enforce law and order aren't present people go a little bonkers. Not something unique to Russia, but that it is occurring now in their space tends to paint a bleak picture as to Putin's accomplishments and the state of the oh so special military operation. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethaface Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: Both sides have definitely fallen back on drones. Here again drones really mess things up. What is a tactical drone versus operational one when even the tactical ones have up to 20km ranges? Based on the really sporadic deep strike capabilities of the RA, I suspect their ISR complex is 1) behind what the UA has access to, and 2) straining. We can recall that brief campaign winter before last when it looked like the RA was targeting power generation. They never really let off and even made a decent job of it for awhile. But over time the accuracy of this campaign appears to have dropped off - we see more crappy terror strikes that they are likely doing off Google Earth. Russian operational strike has always been poorly integrated. But ISR for strike is different than ISR for intelligence - seeing a herd of buffalo 1000 meters out is a different problem than trying to hit one. The driver is sensor-shooter integration. So the RA likely has awareness but translating that into precision strike is a bridge too far. For example, say they are buying ISR satellite data from some Indian private company. It is high resolution (we have seen examples in this thread) but say 24 hours old. Well 24 hours old data is useless for precision strike on a single target, or even a unit. But formations take a long time to move around - it is another problem with heavy steel, it leaves a signature window that is really long lead. A brigade may take a day to marshal, get shaken out and on the move with all the support in place, a Div is even longer. So even crappy Indian satellite data 24 hours old is going to queue a formation movement. It will likely even give a solid idea for units. Ukraine with the HIMARs have demonstrated the opposite. They are hitting logistical nodes and HVTs with frankly stunning accuracy, at very long ranges. We have seen a lot of EW suites, radars, command posts and logistics getting hit. That takes serious fast refresh rates and a very responsive sensor-shooter hook up. I am willing to buy that RA may have been blind at Kursk...easy to do when you have only one weepy eye in the sector. But I also know who was seeing that sector like a hawk from the border to way in depth...the UA. Even the good old grape vine can do work, but what it can't do is direct accurate precision strikes :). So as long as Ukraine keeps it moving somewhat and is able to deny enemy observation drones realtime ISR against their incursion, they are free to roam around as they please until they hit serious opposition. And even then they can just evade and isolate enemy concentrations IF they do have accurate realtime info (edit: assuming Russia can't (re)direct enough C4ISR assets capable of rapid precision strike along the whole Kursk/Belgorod area or full border). I'm curious whether UKR can utilize and translate these intangible capabilities into accurate strikes against RU reinforcements, similar to how they struck that battalion in trucks. Imo it would be an interesting strategy to go for vague incursions trying to draw RU reinforcements and then striking them with precision on the move. Edited August 13 by Lethaface 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Quote Russia to send evacuees from Kursk Region to Ukraine’s occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast As per the Kursk governor, a number of people evacuated from areas currently under Ukrainian military control will be relocated to Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 8 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Russia to send evacuees from Kursk Region to Ukraine’s occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast As per the Kursk governor, a number of people evacuated from areas currently under Ukrainian military control will be relocated to Russian-occupied southern Ukraine. Out of the frying pan... Into the fire... I bet they will love mother Russia after that... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Quote According to Russia's Central Bank, the ruble took a big hit today, falling by almost 4% against the euro. Since the start of the Kursk offensive on August 6, Russia's currency lost 7.5% (EUR/RUB 93.0 --> 100.6). This will cause more inflation... https://www.cbr.ru/currency_base/dynamics/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.so=1&UniDbQuery.mode=2&UniDbQuery.date_req1=&UniDbQuery.date_req2=&UniDbQuery.VAL_NM_RQ=R01239&UniDbQuery.From=01.04.2024&UniDbQuery.To=14.08.2024 Quote Ukrainian reinforcements moving across the border to Russia's Kursk Oblast. #UkrainianArmy #RussiaUkraineWar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Meanwhile the Russians continue to demonstrate excellent offensive technique. Literally a meat delivery. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acrashb Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, sburke said: As soon as the forces that enforce law and order aren't present people go a little bonkers. Not something unique to Russia[...] I've seen credible reports and some video of Russian soldiers looting abandoned Russian houses. That's at least a bit unique to Russia. And won't endear the public to them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 (edited) Quote Vyorstka reports that Russian conscripts evacuated from the border of the Kursk region are forced to sign contracts to be sent back to the front line. By law, conscripts in Russia are not supposed to take part in combat. Reportedly, 150 conscripts are now in one of the military units in the Kursk region, they are told "to follow the assault infantry to clean the territory” and are promised benefits and “combat” payments - $50 per day. https://t.me/svobodnieslova/5443 Edited August 13 by FancyCat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiggathebauce Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 43 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Can't have the refugees spreading panic and discontent in the Russian Metropoles, how cynical 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 (edited) Quote The first footage of Ukrainian Air Force airstrikes in support of the Kursk offensive has emerged. Seen here, a Ukrainian fighter drops a pair of US-supplied JDAM-ERs on Russian positions in Tetkino, conducting an effective tactical strike into Russia. Location (51.281863, 34.276610) Edited August 13 by FancyCat 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 8 minutes ago, FancyCat said: Never thought I would see the day where AFU were flying with jets into Russia. (The helicopter runs back in 2022 nonwithstanding) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Mental to see this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Quote Russian independent media outlet Agenstvo(re-launched Proekt) reports Russian generals sending conscripts from Murmansk region, who are only 1 month in the army, to the battle in Kursk region, despite Putin's promises not to send conscripts to the war https://t.me/agentstvonews/6957 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Chosen Company released another excellent video. Still uncanny to hear English in this conflict. Makes all the more eerie. Truly amazing people. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 The ISW paper that Hapless linked yesterday was a long read (76 pages), but well worth it. I think it's essential reading for anyone who wishes to continue discussing the state of maneuver on the modern battlefield in general, and in Ukraine specifically. https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War_final.pdf Yes, it's a lot of reading. But it can't be more reading than is involved in keeping up on this thread. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said: Mental to see this. That is pretty mental. It makes me wonder, if we had had satellites in 1916, if we would have seen a similar scar running across northern France. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 5 hours ago, Probus said: Sooner or later the competent generals will rise to the top or is that not the way it works in Russia? He was not that silly to wipe out every one of them. The most competent general was in Siberia. The unit which won the battle for Moscow. Without doubt there will be some individuals in the shadows. I don't think the Ukraine underestimate their enemy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: Meanwhile the Russians continue to demonstrate excellent offensive technique. Literally a meat delivery. I just saw the same thing happening to some Donovian infantry in a recent Hapless video. I guess this goes to show that anything that happens in a CM scenario can happen in real life. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 5 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: This might be something that really shakes faith in the Putin within Russia more than anything. When their Tsar has promised help and evacuation but nothing of the sort turns up and law and order utterly collapses without even a Ukrainian presence. Faith in the system cant exactly be high right now. It could help to replenish the meat wagons. Having run out of willing prisoners, Russia may now be creating a Precrime Division. If it happens, I imagine the police will have an incentive to arrest more and more men, adding to the social unrest side of the scale. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 1 hour ago, FancyCat said: Interesting. This is a border town not currently known to be a source of fighting. Curious why this strike location and why now. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said: Meanwhile the Russians continue to demonstrate excellent offensive technique. Literally a meat delivery. I wish we could have seen what happened just before this. The video starts with three men already out and wounded. So what happened here? My guess is the BMP started to unload in an area they thought the Ukrainians weren't manning, they got hammered, some either got back in the BMP or never got out, the three already out were wounded, the BMP put out smoke (rightly) fearing things were going to get worse, then drove off. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Quote Ukrainian attack drones hit the Russian city of Voronezh tonight, with multiple explosions and at least one fire reported near Baltimor airbase, home to a number of Russian strike aircraft. Low flying Ukrainian drone over Voronezh https://t.me/vchkogpu/49899 https://t.me/typicalvoronezh/24339 Fire reportedly in the vicinity of Baltimor airbase 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 37 minutes ago, Offshoot said: It could help to replenish the meat wagons. Having run out of willing prisoners, Russia may now be creating a Precrime Division. If it happens, I imagine the police will have an incentive to arrest more and more men, adding to the social unrest side of the scale. I read science fiction book recently where the opening hook was that you could get forcibly recruited for a traffic offense. I suspect Russia is headed most of the way there. The court has a quota of mobiks to provide... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 Another indicator RU is running out of equipment Quote Belarus is transferring military equipment from its active units to Russia at Moscow's request. Russia asked Belarus for this equipment after events in the Kursk region, as Russia is facing a severe shortage of weapons in this and other areas. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 (edited) What was the joke from several days back? Russia went from second biggest army in the world to second-biggest army in Russia. Edited August 13 by MikeyD 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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