How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

long thread with twitter videos, from the 2024 Fires Symposium. 

Quote

"They have probably a #PATRIOT Bn [worth].. Some of this is being used to protect static sites.. others are being moved around and doing some really historic things..One of them is a #SAMbush.. stretching the very edges..to engage the first A-50 system back in Jan"

"The German trainers woke up that Ukranian battery in the middle of the night and made them march order emplace, fight an air battle and..take off somewhere..A month later they conducted some of their first #SAMBUSH..shooting down SU-27's along the border." (US Army)

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

115th mech.brigade is the same one, which units fled from own positions in Siverodonetsk in 2022, which ruined the front.

Yes, I saw that and guessed at what you just said.  That the 115th continues to be a problem.  With Ukraine's manpower shortage what it is, I think it might be best to disband the 115th and distribute it's personnel to other units.

Steve

[Ultradave]

7 hours ago, Astrophel said:

I didn't read your links because I don't trust "X" these days.  When I click they kid me I am in an Apple environment and then start collecting passwords.  Maybe I am overly paranoid but I do not intend to give X the passwords for my home server environment and definitely not my Apple ID.  Be careful please or reassure me I am paranoid.  

 

Are you paranoid if they really are out to get you  Seriously though, I've been on Macs since the Performa 630 days, and that sounds sketchy. Very. And I still have an X account because that's the only way to keep track of collegiate wrestling - they update which mat, up next, etc and ESPN has coverage on separate streams of each mat during tournaments. Back and forth with the remote.....

.....ANYWAY, I've never been asked for anything except my regular X login and password, so maybe make sure it's actually X (ex-Twitter) you are logging into and haven't been spoofed somehow to some lookalike phishing site. It happens. 

I deleted my old account though and created a new one to just follow very select things - like the college wrestling and some astronomy stuff. I stay away from the toxicity there.

Dave

[zinz]

Not sure if it was posted here before. It's basically a day in the life of a Fpv pilot at the front. I find these kind of longer formats much more interesting than the short something goes boom clips 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

I deleted my old account though and created a new one to just follow very select things - like the college wrestling and some astronomy stuff. I stay away from the toxicity there.

Dave

I envy anyone who only uses “X” to follow non-political topics. Seriously following this war on Twitter sometimes feels like swimming in a sewer with how much Russian trolls you can find and idiots who repeat said trolls talking points.

I also like astronomy, some of the most relaxing moments I can remember is just spending time with my Celestron telescope watching the night sky during summer. Not that big of a wrestling fan, I’m more into boxing. by the way congratulations to Ukraine’s Oleksandr Usyk for winning the undisputed heavyweight title. One of the best matches I have ever seen. He knew he was not just fighting for the title he was fighting to lift the spirit of his whole country.

Anyway, here is some content from the sewer known as X that I wanted to share with you guys today.

Watching Ukrainian pilots shoot these things never gets old, bonus points for the way the sun looks in this video, Reminds me of the movie Top Gun.

The folks running Rheinmetall have been great during this war.

[sburke]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

China has quite a large surplus in production capacity for solar panels. With the latest punitive tariffs on those in the US (IIRC) they will not be picky about whom to sell to.

Friend of mine got his panels installed by some Ukrainian guys. He bought the option for an isolator so that you can run the system independently if there is a blackout. The Ukrainians told him he was stupid to do so in Germany, whereas in Ukraine everyone had that.

I thought that was standard in new systems.  In the event of a loss of power from the grid mine establishes its own mesh and just keeps on plugging away. All I lose is the feed back to the grid which I get paid for here in Calif.  I've got Panasonic (which I wouldn't be surprised to hear they get panels produced in China) with IQ8M micro convertors.

[cesmonkey]

Hmmm ...

 

[ASL Veteran]

 

[Kinophile]

Still trying to keep interaction to a minimum here, because life, but a very useful Quora post on the S-400, relevant to the recent strikes in Crime (where the UKR specifically hit the Battery radar). 

Quote

I have read many answers here and I have to admit that people here are clueless.

These are the components of a single S-400 battery.

A single S-400 battery is made up of multiple components.

• Command and Control Center: The command and control center is the brain of the S-400 system. It's the main component of the S-400 and is mounted on a Ural-5323 8×8 truck, which provides mobility and allows the command post to be relocated quickly as needed. This center coordinates all the actions within the battery, processing data from various radars and sensors and directing the launchers to engage targets. It is equipped with advanced communication systems to maintain continuous links with higher command echelons and other air defense systems.
• Radar Systems: The radar systems are critical for detecting, tracking, and targeting. The S-400 battery typically includes several radar types:
  • 91N6E Big Bird Acquisition and Battle Management Radar: Mounted on an MZKT-7930 vehicle, this radar has a detection range of up to 600 kilometers. It can track up to 300 targets simultaneously and provides the initial detection and tracking data for incoming threats.
  • 92N6E Grave Stone Multi-Functional Radar: Also mounted on an MZKT-7930 vehicle, this radar is responsible for guiding the missiles to their targets. It has a tracking range of about 400 kilometers and can engage up to 36 targets simultaneously while guiding up to 72 missiles.
  • 96L6E All-Height Surveillance Radar: This radar provides additional coverage, especially for low-altitude targets. It can detect and track targets at various altitudes and is typically mounted on a 8×8 vehicle for mobility. The radar can cover a range of about 300 kilometers and is particularly useful for detecting stealth aircraft and low-flying cruise missiles.
• Launchers: The S-400 system uses several types of launchers to deploy its missiles. Each launcher can carry up to four missile tubes (each tube carries 4 missiles) which can be loaded with a variety of missile types depending on the mission requirements. The launchers are designed to be highly mobile, allowing the battery to quickly change locations to avoid being targeted.
  • 5P85TE2 and Launchers: These launchers are mounted on 10×10 vehicles and carry huge missiles that are used against supersonic and hypersonic targets.
  • 5P85SE2 Launchers: These are mounted on 8x8 vehicles and carry lighter missiles which are used against low-flying targets.
  • Missiles: The S-400 system is versatile in its missile capability, being able to launch different types of missiles to engage various threats at different ranges:
    • 48N6E, 48N6E2, and 48N6DM Missiles: These are the primary long-range missiles with engagement ranges varying from 250 to 400 kilometers. They are designed to intercept aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles.
    • 9M96E and 9M96E2 Missiles: These are medium-range missiles with ranges of 40 to 120 kilometers. They are highly maneuverable and are used for engaging smaller, more agile targets like tactical ballistic missiles and precision-guided munitions.
    • 40N6 Missiles: These ultra-long-range missiles have a reach of up to 400 kilometers and are designed to engage high-value targets like AWACS, electronic warfare aircraft, and ballistic missiles at extreme distances.
• Support Vehicles: To maintain the operational readiness of the S-400 battery, several support vehicles are included:
  • Loader Vehicles: These vehicles are used to reload the launchers with missiles. They ensure that the battery can continue to engage targets over an extended period without having to return to base for rearming.
  • Power Supply Vehicles: These vehicles provide the necessary electrical power to all the components of the battery, ensuring uninterrupted operations.
  • Maintenance and Repair Vehicles: These are equipped with tools and spare parts to perform field maintenance and minor repairs, minimizing downtime and keeping the system operational.

One S-400 battery is usually made up of more than 20 components, including 8 Launchers and around 5 support vehicles and excluding hundreds of missiles.

Ukraine has so far destroyed 6 launchers. They don't even make up a quarter of 1 single S-400 and they are the easiest to replace.

Basically, no country has ever destroyed the S-400. But Ukraine has destroyed 6 launchers/components of the S-400. 

Last point is obviously out of date today  

[cesmonkey]

Has anyone heard more details on the loss / withdrawl from the Krynky bridgehead and what transpired?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ASL Veteran said:

 

Annoying and confusing mish-mash presentation, but some really grate videos not yet posted here.  Worth watching, though I recommend volume off

This T-72 destruction shows how difficult it is to defend against a good drone operator.  Sure, the tank is already disabled at this point, but once again I want to point out that in previous wars tanks like this could have been (or would have been) recovered.  Picking off bogged, damaged, or abandoned tanks does matter.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

One of Ukraine's top officials in charge of reconstruction has quit.  He cited bureaucratic hurdles and what appears to be inter-departmental turf wars.  Corruption is probably playing some role in both, but he did not cite corruption and did not specify anything that caused him to leave:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-reconstruction-resignation.html

Despite the reasons for leaving, he said his agency was able to complete their projects and to do so with the financial transparency that the West is insisting upon.  it sounds like his main objection is it shouldn't be so hard to do the right things for the right reasons.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Has anyone heard more details on the loss / withdrawl from the Krynky bridgehead and what transpired?

No withdrawal. Bridgehead place just was moved along Krynky (the village has 11 km in length) toward Kozachi Laheri village. Old bridgehead now is a plain of ruines - it's not possible to hold the ground there

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

One of Ukraine's top officials in charge of reconstruction has quit.  He cited bureaucratic hurdles and what appears to be inter-departmental turf wars.  Corruption is probably playing some role in both, but he did not cite corruption and did not specify anything that caused him to leave:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/world/europe/ukraine-reconstruction-resignation.html

Despite the reasons for leaving, he said his agency was able to complete their projects and to do so with the financial transparency that the West is insisting upon.  it sounds like his main objection is it shouldn't be so hard to do the right things for the right reasons.

Steve

Yeah, spoke to a guy a couple months back who was shutting down his Ukraine aid- related consultancy owing to total frustration with the local bureacrats. Not corruption so much, just total inflexibility; they only know how to quote and apply the book, no interest in the outcome.

To get anything done, you need to work with the parallel/amateur channels (Ukrainians are really great at creating those), but that's all a no-go where any kind of US aid money is involved because 'there's no accountability'.

So, unstoppable dumb meets immovable stupid.....

[Carolus]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So, unstoppable dumb meets immovable stupid.....

Hahahaha, I have to remember this sentence whenever I feel frustrated about a bureaucratic process again.

[cesmonkey]

Update from Konstantin Mashovets

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1940

Here's part two:
 

Quote

2. In the Pokrovsky direction, the troops (forces) of the enemy group (GV) “Center” continue persistent attacks in the northwestern direction.

Probably, the advanced units of the enemy's 30th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR), in cooperation with the 35th MRB and at least one motorized rifle regiment of the 27th motorized rifle division (MSR), most likely the 433rd MSBR, succeeded within several occupy the village of Novoaleksandrovka for a day and move north of the railway, towards the village of Lozovatskoye.

In general, as far as I understand, the Ukrainian command has not yet been able to cope with the crisis, which, obviously, has arisen in almost the entire zone of action of the enemy GV "Center"... It has

not yet been possible to stop the advance of the enemy's advanced units in the Ocheretino-Vozdvizhenka direction , as well as to the south (in the Umansky area, in the direction of Yasnobrodovka and two “axial directorates - Novopokrovskoye - Novoselovka Pervaya and towards the village of Sokol)

In addition, after the obvious tactical success of the enemy in the southern part of this strip (the area with ... In this regard, the “extreme need” for him to advance to the Sokol-Novopokrovskoye line is, obviously, gradually disappearing, although, of course, it remains quite desirable. After

all, his advanced units are gradually moving towards the village of Novoselovka Pervaya in a different direction - from the south. , which, by and large, is even “deeper” in securing the southern flank of the “Ocheretinsk” group than the above line.

In general, with the further increase of the enemy’s efforts in this direction (and it, obviously, will be so...), we have every prospect of getting not just tactical, but significant operational troubles...

At the moment, in the Pokrovsky operational direction ALREADY we have a full-scale tactical crisis, and if the enemy additionally brings in 2-3 more motorized rifle brigades (msbr) + 3-4 motorized rifle brigades... then in this case I don’t even see much difficulty for him in terms of turning these tactical successes into operational ones. ..

Obviously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction do not yet have the ability to either stop or “stop” the enemy’s offensive, which already has a steady tendency to grow in scale.

Moreover, in my opinion, due to his latest tactical successes in this direction, the “variability” of his POSSIBLE further actions begins to increase before the enemy command...

In this regard, the fact that the enemy is persistently trying to advance in the western and northern - in western directions, but at the same time “does not force events” in the zone of operation of its 132nd Omsk Rifle Brigade,for example in the direction of Kalinovo or Alexandropol...

In other words, he is trying to get “as deep as possible” BEHIND the right flank of our Toretsk tactical group from the south to the Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka road.

What will happen next, I think... there is no need to explain..

 

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yeah, spoke to a guy a couple months back who was shutting down his Ukraine aid- related consultancy owing to total frustration with the local bureacrats. Not corruption so much, just total inflexibility; they only know how to quote and apply the book, no interest in the outcome.

To get anything done, you need to work with the parallel/amateur channels (Ukrainians are really great at creating those), but that's all a no-go where any kind of US aid money is involved because 'there's no accountability'.

So, unstoppable dumb meets immovable stupid.....

I speculate that they "follow the book" to reduce the chance of corruption.  Not an easy problem to solve.

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I speculate that they "follow the book" to reduce the chance of corruption.  Not an easy problem to solve.

That's correct, although most of the 'corruption' -- which is widespread, let's not fool ourselves -- comes from 'persuading' those bureaucrats to turn a blind eye, allowing actual business (legitimate purpose or not) to get done. Stuff falls through the cracks all the time, we're understaffed, what can we do? (shrug)

...Basically, if you 'go through channels' the Crats will generally say NO, whether to play it safe, or cuz they can't be arsed (as they have no accountability for results), or in the hope of a payment being offered.

So people stop asking permission and simply start creating their own channels. At that point though, everyone is a lawbreaker and can be convicted / extorted the moment Someone In Authority decides they are a Person of Interest.

...Too much Law, too rigidly enforced by too many folks, soon becomes indistinguishable from having no Law at all.

None of this is special to Ukraine, btw. In my lived experience, Latin America is by far the worst at this, but high government places like Vietnam get pretty close.

Edited June 11 by LongLeftFlank

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/03/world/europe/ukraine-destruction.html?unlocked_article_code=1.yE0.CUwg.AXRHeG_7we3j&smid=url-share

MMM

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

That's correct, although most of the 'corruption' -- which is widespread, let's not fool ourselves -- comes from 'persuading' those bureaucrats to turn a blind eye, allowing actual business (legitimate purpose or not) to get done. Stuff falls through the cracks all the time, we're understaffed, what can we do? (shrug)

...Basically, if you 'go through channels' the Crats will generally say NO, whether to play it safe, or cuz they can't be arsed (as they have no accountability for results), or in the hope of a payment being offered.

So people stop asking permission and simply start creating their own channels. At that point though, everyone is a lawbreaker and can be convicted / extorted the moment Someone In Authority decides they are a Person of Interest.

...Too much Law, too rigidly enforced by too many folks, soon becomes indistinguishable from having no Law at all.

None of this is special to Ukraine, btw. In my lived experience, Latin America is by far the worst at this, but high government places like Vietnam get pretty close.

Interesting. My take on Vietnam is quite different. Yes, there is corruption but the rules and rates are so widely understood and agreed upon that they are simply a routine cost of doing business. Breaking them, showing too much greed or simply a lack of grace is an excellent way to go to jail. Call it 'grey' corruption if you will but it isn't the wild West either. 

Per Ukraine and in general, my over all observation is that complaints about bureaucracy are really about the worst 10% of it. Yes, it's widespread but Ukraine isn't doing to Russia what it's doing because it is deeply debilitated by corrupt practice. 

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Per Ukraine and in general, my over all observation is that complaints about bureaucracy are really about the worst 10% of it. Yes, it's widespread but Ukraine isn't doing to Russia what it's doing because it is deeply debilitated by corrupt practice. 

I think the most important thing to recognise is that Ukraine has made great strides in combatting corruption in the last ten years, which is really quite commendable even if there is plenty more work to do. Its important to keep that in mind when anyone from the west looks at the country to be entirely honest, as the west has very extensive anti corruption practises and culture (compared to most of the world) The fact that Ukraine is actively doing so while in an existential war is honestly very impressive, while Russian corruption is only getting worse.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corruption-transparency-index-improvement/32797746.html 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wartime-ukraine-ranks-among-worlds-top-performers-in-anti-corruption-index/#:~:text=Wartime Ukraine climbed twelve places,to 36 out of 100.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I think the most important thing to recognise is that Ukraine has made great strides in combatting corruption in the last ten years, which is really quite commendable even if there is plenty more work to do. Its important to keep that in mind when anyone from the west looks at the country to be entirely honest, as the west has very extensive anti corruption practises and culture (compared to most of the world) The fact that Ukraine is actively doing so while in an existential war is honestly very impressive, while Russian corruption is only getting worse.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-corruption-transparency-index-improvement/32797746.html 

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/wartime-ukraine-ranks-among-worlds-top-performers-in-anti-corruption-index/#:~:text=Wartime Ukraine climbed twelve places,to 36 out of 100.

Agreed!

And Ukrainian responses to corruption have been largely to adopt Western models of transparency and political consequence while the Russian response is to attempt to recreate the Soviet system of a controlled economy. Corruption per se may decline in the Russian system but all of the other frictions and inefficiencies increase. 

[kimbosbread]

Yeah, the decline in corruption is certainly worth noting. Plus, they managed to build what was probably the #3 software development country in the world (after US, China). It was so good post 2018 that I knew US-based, US-salary-being-paid Ukranians seriously consider moving back to Kyiv to work or start companies. So clearly the economic climate at least in the big city wasn’t completely overshadowed by corruption.

[poesel]

15 hours ago, sburke said:

I thought that was standard in new systems.  In the event of a loss of power from the grid mine establishes its own mesh and just keeps on plugging away. All I lose is the feed back to the grid which I get paid for here in Calif.  I've got Panasonic (which I wouldn't be surprised to hear they get panels produced in China) with IQ8M micro convertors.

No, it's not standard.

Short explanation for everyone else: your solar system pushes power into the grid if it produces more than you need. If you have a blackout because - to stay on topic - someone bombed the grid between you and the power plant, you would still try to push power into the grid. That is nice for your neighbors, but a nasty surprise for the electrician. He would expect the power to be cut, but the wire is still live.

This is why a solar converter only runs when there is grid power. Unless you have an isolator which disconnects you from the grid. Then your converter can create its own mesh, as sburkes does. A manual isolator is a few hundred € while an automatic one about 2-3k€ (IIRC). This is why they are not standard.

Solar would be a good choice for Ukraine (and everyone else...), but that is a long term solution. Ukraine produced only 1.2% of its electricity by solar in 2020. To change that is a huge effort in the best of times, and this is not.

https://www.worlddata.info/europe/ukraine/energy-consumption.php

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Update from Konstantin Mashovets

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1940

Here's part two:
 

 

Concerning for sure.  This is the closest thing the Russians have had to a breakthrough since the beginning phase of Bakhmut.  However, the map shows how much more they have to do to create an operational level threat.  The blue arrow points to where this is going on: