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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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These recent videos of Russian armoured assaults are insane ! 🤯

I mean, I ( and almost everyone on this forum ) would be absolutely messing myself with worry if I even tried that in CM in a WW2 context. Are the Russian generals on drugs ?

Maybe it's just because I tend to be very logical, but I cannot wrap my head around this kind of behaviour after 2 (two !) years of seeing this sort of thing get smashed.

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13 minutes ago, Baneman said:

These recent videos of Russian armoured assaults are insane ! 🤯

I mean, I ( and almost everyone on this forum ) would be absolutely messing myself with worry if I even tried that in CM in a WW2 context. Are the Russian generals on drugs ?

Maybe it's just because I tend to be very logical, but I cannot wrap my head around this kind of behaviour after 2 (two !) years of seeing this sort of thing get smashed.

I think it is the “just one more push” mentality.  The Russian theory of success here is that Ukraine will eventually run out of capability to resist.  They need to keep pushing to that end.  I am also sure there is a dimension of “must continue to demonstrate offensive action” to reinforce the narrative of “Russia cannot be beat”.  

So here we are.

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1 hour ago, Baneman said:

These recent videos of Russian armoured assaults are insane ! 🤯

I mean, I ( and almost everyone on this forum ) would be absolutely messing myself with worry if I even tried that in CM in a WW2 context. Are the Russian generals on drugs ?

Maybe it's just because I tend to be very logical, but I cannot wrap my head around this kind of behaviour after 2 (two !) years of seeing this sort of thing get smashed.

It's a form of greeting the spring for them. Russian soldiers leave their holes they lived all winter and simply cannot resists sending several own mechanized battalions into flames during these futile attacks. Some unconcious form of celebrating life rising everywhere around them probably. We have Eggs and Easter bunnies, they have crispy  tanks. I didn't read him lately, but I am sure Dugin has entire theory already of suicide attacks as expression of uniquely Russian unharnessed elaine vital.

Check mate, cold-hearted Anglo-Saxons. You will never get it. ;)

Edited by Beleg85
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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There is no better use for far right elements than to draft them into the army and let them fight some other nation. They are supposed to like it.

Not sure I can really agree with that...now feels like a good time to make a callback to @sburke's comment about extremism and reason. If I were running a unit in a professional armed service of a democratic nation, I wouldn't want to try to integrate a bunch of personnel who might have serious issues serving alongside and taking orders from men and women who might be of a different ethnic origin, follow a different religion (or no religion), be LGBT, etc. Far too much potential for disruption of good order and discipline.

Canada had some very unfortunate experiences back in the Eighties and Nineties after our Airborne Regiment became a "dumping ground" for personnel (often with far right tendencies) who had caused disciplinary issues elsewhere...

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5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Not unified ) We have several parties, which in our and western societies consider as "far right", but indeed almost all they are "left-national" with more or less particles of right/republicans things in own ideology. If political force votes for social-oriented economy, state control over largest economy branches they are not "right" - neither "far", nor "close". But maybe this war will generate social demand for national-right-center (republican) ideology.   

If you wish to privately reach out to talk about the ways in which proto/semi/fully fascist parties often cherry pick across traditional political lines, I'm happy to indulge in the conversation but there have been enough forays off topic lately here.

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9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's especially tricky because it's not clear cut as to the intentions.  For the most part I think the Republicans are actively opposing Ukraine support for the simple reason that the Democrats want it.  This has been a problem with the GOP for some time now, and it's getting worse.  Look at what they did to the border security compromise.  Just about everything the Democrats offered up was something the GOP has been demanding.  Did they get everything?  No, and nor should they since they don't speak for 100% of America.  But what happened?  They torpedoed something they claimed was their top priority.  Which indicates to me that it was never a real priority to solve, it was just a vehicle to win elections.

There's also the problem that the GOP's core agenda is, for its own domestic reasons, in concert with many of Moscow's aims.  Cutting back foreign assistance has always been favored by the populist wing of the GOP, even though up until now arms packages were usually exempted.  Catering to Joe Sixpack's short term interests is also a strong tradition within the GOP, so railing against anything that might be perceived as filling up a gas guzzling truck is on their agenda.  And let's not forget isolationism.  A huge and long standing force in American politics that comes from deep seated emotions which, sadly, people like Hitler and Putin take full advantage of.

The result of all of this is it's not very easy to point a finger as to why the GOP is behaving the way it is.  Some members are clearly pro-Putin, others are just anti-Democrat, and others still are generally anti-democracy.  Even if an individual is all three, they should be allow to speak.  That's not the problem with our society.  The problem is a large percentage of the population isn't able or capable of understanding that speech, yet are perfectly happy to go along with it because it makes them feel good.

Steve

Oh for principled leaders like this today… certainly not a loser in my opinion 

 

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7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

US citizen with callsign "Will", signs a contract with Russian army. Milblogger Kotenok in own TG claims this guy served in US army, but when knew what is going on Donbas decided to join to fight against "nazism". Some time he served in "15th international brigade" (so-called "Pyatnashka") of DNR, now he signed contract in Yugra city in Syberia (74th motor-rifle brigade). Interview in English. I wonder he has Mexican or Hindus roots?

Impossible to say.  He has a pretty neutral American accent.  Common for both northeast and westcoast, but not limited to those two VERY densely populated areas.  As for ethnicity, no clue but I'd guess mixed parents and at a minimum raised in the US.  One of the things that's difficult with Americans is it is very common for mixed parents to be themselves from a mix.  America is the "melting pot", after all!  If I had to guess I'd say one of his parents has strong Middle Eastern heritage.

The things he said were very repetitive and not very interesting. 

Steve

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6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Worth to note Russia officially mix those concepts too;

I think most countries have this problem.  For sure it is a big one in the US.  Some of the biggest pro-Fascists I can think of brand themselves as "true patriots".  Complete with Confederate flag.

The contradictions make a sensible mind hurt.

There's really no hard line between patriotism and nationalism anyway, but it really is a blurry one these days in the US. Traditionally "true patriots" were supportive of hardline nationalists (neocons), however the disasters of Afghanistan and Iraq have put a huge rift between the two.  At least rhetorically, because I'd guess that most "true patriots" still idolize Oliver North, despite the fact that he was (likely still still is) an ardent neocon.

Did I mention the contradictions hurting the mind?

Steve

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  • Quote

     

    • https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-3-2024Republic of Tatarstan Head Rustam Minnikhanov warned that Russian companies and local authorities must defend themselves against Ukrainian drone strikes and not rely on Russian air defenses following the April 2 Ukrainian strikes on Russian military production and oil refinery infrastructure in Tatarstan.
    • Russian-backed former Ukrainian separatist politician Oleg Tsaryov complained on April 3 that no current Russian political party adequately represents the political interests of Russian ultranationalists, highlighting a possible source of discontent between the pro-Russian ultranationalist community and the Kremlin.

     

    Two things from ISW we haven't already discussed. I wonder how Putin feels about air defenses that are not controlled by the Kremlin?
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NY Times just ran an article detailing the death of Kuzminov, the Russian helicopter pilot that defected to Ukraine.  As was reported earlier, the guy was a flaming idiot.  He knows Russia kills people like him, yet he lived a high profile life right out in the open.  Including contacting an ex-Russian girlfriend in Russia to come for a visit.  What are the chances the GRU and/or the FSB weren't tapping the lines of everybody Kuzminov ever knew?  A safe bet would be "everybody".

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/31/world/europe/russian-defector-murder-spain.html

Steve

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"Will" rather reminds me of those teenage girls in the UK who thought it would be a good idea to travel to Syria and present themselves as child brides to ISIS. Its impossible for a sane person to even guess what they were thinking at the time.

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9 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

Not sure I can really agree with that...now feels like a good time to make a callback to @sburke's comment about extremism and reason. If I were running a unit in a professional armed service of a democratic nation, I wouldn't want to try to integrate a bunch of personnel who might have serious issues serving alongside and taking orders from men and women who might be of a different ethnic origin, follow a different religion (or no religion), be LGBT, etc. Far too much potential for disruption of good order and discipline.

For an army in the time of peace, that reasoning makes a lot of sense. However I do not think that a country fighting an existential war would be so picky, if the nationalists actually follow their ideology and volunteer for service. And values such as machismo and hatred for the foreign enemy may actually translate into high combat morale, being more valuable than the ability to easily get along with women or sexual minorities. There is a lot of literature about people becoming good soldiers in war often being poor soldier material for a regular peacetime army.

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13 hours ago, dan/california said:
13 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Sorry for the double quote i couldn't delete it.

 

So anyone can explain why the white house is so against NATO and therefor Europe taking the initiative in the weapon supply? I mean they are clearly having issues and on the other side of the sea, so their peoples don't feel the same threat as we do. The USA is acting as a wild card its only natural that we step up, and even if the NATO will take control of the supply it does not mean that the USA and its eastern allies cannot help Ukraine if they find the will for it. So what could be the real reason?

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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Impossible to say.  He has a pretty neutral American accent.  Common for both northeast and westcoast, but not limited to those two VERY densely populated areas.  As for ethnicity, no clue but I'd guess mixed parents and at a minimum raised in the US.  One of the things that's difficult with Americans is it is very common for mixed parents to be themselves from a mix.  America is the "melting pot", after all!  If I had to guess I'd say one of his parents has strong Middle Eastern heritage.

The things he said were very repetitive and not very interesting. 

Steve

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/04/04/pro-kremlin-telegram-channels-share-propaganda-video-featuring-u-s-city-councilor-who-joined-russian-army-after-fleeing-child-pornography-charges

No suprise that he is on the run from US law enforcement...

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3 hours ago, hcrof said:

Pedophiles and Russia. The beauty of it is that they flee incarceration in the US (pretty tough, but has toilets and you'll likely live) for Russia (awful and not enough toilets), and then join the Russian Army to fight on the Ukraine front (toilets are now literally a hole in the ground) and, because Russia does not give a flying damn about them, they are sent in the next sheep assault and die in confused agony.

Its wonderful. 

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4 hours ago, hcrof said:

No surprise at all.  Though you have to be both a criminal and insane to think of going to Russia to fight is a sensible alternative to all the other ways to evade justice (or, shudder, man up to what you've done).

Daily Beast has a little more info, though mostly an English rehash of the Meduza article:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/wilmer-puello-mota-is-russias-new-us-media-star-wanted-on-child-porn-charges-in-rhode-island

This is another black eye for the Mass Air National Guard.  Jack Teixeira, the classified documents leaker, was also serving with them.  That's two extreme whack-jobs in the same branch of service that don't believe in the country they serve but DO believe in it's long standing enemy.  Wonderful.

Speaking of which, I missed the news last month of Teixeira pleading guilty to espionage charges:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/massachusetts-air-national-guard-member-jack-teixeira-pleads-guilty-after-classified-documents-leak

Steve

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For those that don't regularly check the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68722542

Interesting article on how hackers are being recognised by Ukraine as important to the war effort.

Some interesting points made.

Quote

And most recently, in January, Kristopher and others also successfully hacked into a prominent Russian weapons-maker and stole 100 gigabytes of private data, which led to a public celebration from the Ukrainian authorities.

"The array of information transferred to the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine contains drawings, specifications, patents, software referring to both existing and promising military developments," the announcement said.

Ukraine added that the data stolen was a "significant blow" to Moscow and worth $1.5bn (£1.2bn) - although it did not say how this figure was reached

Those being honoured are potentially now open to Russian retaliation.

If it was me I would keep this quiet until many years after end of the war. 

On the other hand I guess it might encourage more to join in if they know they are being valued?

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32 minutes ago, Holien said:

For those that don't regularly check the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68722542

Interesting article on how hackers are being recognised by Ukraine as important to the war effort.

Some interesting points made.

Those being honoured are potentially now open to Russian retaliation.

If it was me I would keep this quiet until many years after end of the war. 

On the other hand I guess it might encourage more to join in if they know they are being valued?

With Russia, you need to keep low for the rest of your life or your life might be a lot shorter than you'd like.  Remember the Skripals were targeted something like 15 years after he was outed as a double agent.

Steve

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Next Darwin premium for Russian recon 

Russian serviceman tells a story about stupid death of all recon group:

"Ahaha! Guys, look at this! The door bell on the tree here in the forest! How funny! Ahaha! I must ring! It's so jolly! Hey, Owl, are you home? BOOOM!"

 

Edited by Haiduk
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