billbindc Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 4 minutes ago, Butschi said: Huh? March 7th + 48h is off by about two weeks. That could have been anything or nothing and not related to this incident at all, I think? They gave further warnings three days ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 If this is a false flag, it is literally 15 years old video game plot https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Russian. Then again, Putin already did it once https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings. I personally believe the claims that this is some separatists, because they can see the center getting weaker. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 According to a new rumour, Russia is looking for five guys from Ingushetia (a Russian republic close to Chechnya). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Scheme of today's missile strike. Red - Kh-101, purple - Kh-59, yellow - Shaheds, green - Kh-22, blue - Kinzhal, orange - ballistic (Iskander/S-300) It was strongest attack since the end of 2022 with heavy consequenses. Russians used in mass those types of misisles, which can't be intercepted by more weak AD of eastern cities. This was posted here today, but I repeat if somebody skipped it: 63 Shaheds - 55 shot down 2 Kh-59 - 2 12 Iskander-M - 0 22 S-300 - 0 40 Kh-101 - 35 5 Kh-22 - 0 7 Kh-47 Kinzhal - 0 (according unconfirmed info one Kinzhal, passing north of Kyiv oblast on route to Khmelnitskyi, was engaged with Patriot missile, but interception wasn't successful) Most bad situation in Kharkiv - the city was hit with 20 S-300 missiles from Belgorod and remained completely out of electricity In Zaporizhzhia except GES-1 and GES-2 hit (GES-2 got heavy damages, GES - hydro energy plant), which were hit with 8 different misiles, about 450 private and multistorey buildings got different damages On the photo - aftermath of missile impact in private cottages district of Zaporizhzhia In Khmelnitskiy also missile and Shaheds caused destructions and civilain deaths Total number of victims - 5 killed, 3 missed, not less 30 wounded. At the evening Russians launched one more Iskander-M on power infrastructure object near Odesa. So, in 8 oblasts of Ukraine there were partial electricity cutting off 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 I can't get it to copy and paste to save my life but Medvedev just did a Telegram post that seemed to imply the Russians are going to blame it the Ukrainians regardless of what happened, and then go full Reichstag Fire with it. Of course it is Friday night in Moscow, and Medvedev may simply have already been to drunk/high to check what the party line actually is supposed to be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 2 minutes ago, dan/california said: I can't get it to copy and paste to save my life but Medvedev just did a Telegram post that seemed to imply the Russians are going to blame it the Ukrainians regardless of what happened, and then go full Reichstag Fire with it. Of course it is Friday night in Moscow, and Medvedev may simply have already been to drunk/high to check what the party line actually is supposed to be. The issue is that I see RU Nats are very confused. There isn't any sort of war frenzy per se yet (except from few total madmen like Medvedev). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 9 minutes ago, dan/california said: Of course it is Friday night in Moscow, and Medvedev may simply have already been to drunk/high to check what the party line actually is supposed to be. I don't think this is reliable information, because I don't think Medvedev is ever not this drunk and high. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 (edited) 9 hours ago, Holien said: If America could only ween itself off Oil... There is a pathway but too many on the right are against anything "green". A topic not for this thread but it would help the world and stop Americans being held hostage to oil price pressure. I wonder if Ukraine will listen to this advice from Biden or will take the Israeli position. Europe really needs to up it's involvement as I despair of some Americans who hold power. This news, though it was again from "anonymous source" summoned a huge wave of hate in Ukraine. Especially on background of today's heavy strike. Despite President's Office rejected US warned Ukraine to stop strikes we can see there are no strikes in about a week on Russian refineries. Also journalists of "Voice of America" Ukrainian branch officially asked White House to comment the article in FT. The answer was very blurred and contained the phrase "we don't encourage attacks inside the Russia" (well, I imagine 1941 and White House, which don't encourage Britain strikes inside Germany). I think, after today's disaster, we have to blow Russian refieries and energy infrastructure with double force. It's more and more opinions here that US doesn't want a victory of Ukraine. These limited weapon supply after the peak in December 2022 is just for "not allow Ukriane to lose", but not to "Ukrainian victory". Last speech of Sullivan, where he pointed out "victory conditions" for Ukraine - "if Ukriane keeps ittelsf as democracy state bla-bla-bla"... but without pointing out in what borders. What we can expect from the country which even can't do nothinbg with Huthi attacks and asking China to influence on them (!!!) Edited March 22 by Haiduk 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Russians in ecstasy of FAB-3000. Long text on one milblogger (screen with translations) - he believes, Russia will change own way of war and will hammer UKR strongpoints and defense lines with these super-bombs, instead to waste personnel and vehicles in useless attacks under strikes of UKR drones. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 7 minutes ago, Haiduk said: This news, though it was again from "anonymous source" summoned a huge wave of hate in Ukraine. Especially on background of today's heavy strike. Lot's of folk here not very happy with this either.... I am all for sending Ukraine everything we can from the Uk. No point in having it sat here in warehouses when we have a fire to put out in Europe. I will be writing to my MP, not that I expect it will do much but it's something I can do. Europe has realised that we shouldn't be dependent on foreign countries for energy and key commodities so we are on a trajectory to remove the strangle hold of OPEC and Russia. If Ukraine can produce it's own weapon systems with European help, American Aid will become less important. We need to keep you in the fight this year.... Ukraine needs to work out how to recruit folk to keep the front lines manned... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Faces of probable shooters in Moscow - all from Ingushetia. It smelled like a "HE shugar" set by Chechens, controlled by FSB, when several houses were blown up with multiple victims. Let's see what Russia will claim in next days. Some of their officials already blame Ukraine. Next - "we need come together around our lovely strong president in his fight with world evil -> mobilization -> inner terror -> possible preparations to invasion in Baltia/Poland" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Anyway, 2 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Russians in ecstasy of FAB-3000. Long text on one milblogger (screen with translations) - he believes, Russia will change own way of war and will hammer UKR strongpoints and defense lines with these super-bombs, instead to waste personnel and vehicles in useless attacks under strikes of UKR drones. According to their own experience in Aphanistan, a very large bomb is less effective than multiple smaller ones because the overall destruction area of the big bomb is smaller. Clowns. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 People on reddit are claiming it was fake: Quote Apparently the story that the US wanted Ukraine to stop hitting refineries was false https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-denies-us-requested-to-halt-strikes-1711118430.html 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 2 minutes ago, Grigb said: Anyway, According to their own experience in Aphanistan, a very large bomb is less effective than multiple smaller ones because the overall destruction area of the big bomb is smaller. Clowns. I think it does a better job of flattening concrete bunkers in the vicinity and cellars that might withstand nearby 500kg impacts though? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 minute ago, Haiduk said: Faces of probable shooters in Moscow - all from Ingushetia. It smelled like a "HE shugar" set by Chechens, controlled by FSB, when several houses were blown up with multiple victims. Let's see what Russia will claim in next days. Some of their officials already blame Ukraine. Next - "we need come together around our lovely strong president in his fight with world evil -> mobilization -> inner terror -> possible preparations to invasion in Baltia/Poland" These photographs could be forgeries; the RU claim that these particular men have already been killed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 ISIS Khorasan, but they did claimed responsibility wherever they can already several times, so treat with caution. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Just now, Letter from Prague said: People on reddit are claiming it was fake: Let's wait several days. As I wrote already about a week there are no strikes on refineries. Maybe we replenish the stock of drones? Or maybe it wasn't fake? Or after today's attack Zelenskyi fu..d off Sullivan and strikes will continue? Let's see... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 5 minutes ago, Kraft said: I think it does a better job of flattening concrete bunkers in the vicinity and cellars that might withstand nearby 500kg impacts though? Yes and no. If it hits directly yes otherwise no - overal destruction effect from near misses of two let's say 500 kg bombs will be greater than from single 1000 kg bomb. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Commander of the Ground Forces Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk: Quote Russian plans are not fully clear to us. We only know the data they have, what they create. They create force grouping with more than 100 thousand soldiers. It won’t necessarily be an offensive. Perhaps they will replenish their units that are losing their combat capability. These are so far such dire predictions that such an offensive will happen. We will do everything in order to inflict maximum losses on the enemy, so that all their resources that they form are involved in the battle at this time. But we are preparing for a different development of the situation. If we fail to keep the enemy in Ukraine, the next country will be the NATO country. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/oleksandr-pavliuk-russians-form-a-hundred-thousand-group-of-troops/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sross112 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Maybe someone in the oil industry can explain it to me as I don't understand why the US would care about Russian oil exports. The US is a net exporter so doesn't less oil from Russia mean more money/profit for US big oil? More money for US big oil means more money for US politicians, so why would there be US outrage against strikes on Russian oil infrastructure? The only reason I can see is if Russian oil is financing US politicians to a greater degree than the US oil is, maybe that is it? Wouldn't the main consumers of Russian oil be the biggest ones to throw a fit? Like China and India? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 While the US exported more under Trump, under Biden that has been reversed: "Although exports increased in the first half of 2023, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports, meaning it remains a net crude oil importer.Oct 10, 2023" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 If it is ISIS or some Islamic offshoot based in a remote part of Russia, will Russia have the military resources available to counter this threat and bring it under control. Especially if it extends to other territories. Basically--has Russia opened up a two front battle? (Along with their trouble making in Africa.) And, if it is Islamic based, will that have any effect on Chechnya's support of Russia with regards to Ukraine. This could be interesting... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 30 minutes ago, sross112 said: Maybe someone in the oil industry can explain it to me as I don't understand why the US would care about Russian oil exports. The US is a net exporter so doesn't less oil from Russia mean more money/profit for US big oil? More money for US big oil means more money for US politicians, so why would there be US outrage against strikes on Russian oil infrastructure? The only reason I can see is if Russian oil is financing US politicians to a greater degree than the US oil is, maybe that is it? Wouldn't the main consumers of Russian oil be the biggest ones to throw a fit? Like China and India? I'm adjacent to the industry and I find the statements fairly mystifying, tbh. As best I can tell, it's: "Do what'nsoever you want to do with me, Brer Fox, but please, please, please! Don't throw me in that briar patch!" Or, if you prefer, John le Carre: "When you and Karla are stuck on your ledge on the Reichenbach Falls and you’ve got your hands round Karla’s throat, Brother Lacon will be right there behind you holding your coat-tails and telling you not to be beastly to the Russians.’ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: Let's wait several days. As I wrote already about a week there are no strikes on refineries. Maybe we replenish the stock of drones? Or maybe it wasn't fake? Or after today's attack Zelenskyi fu..d off Sullivan and strikes will continue? Let's see... If I were Zelensky I'd see this as an opportunity if true. Tell Sullivan the UA has a huge campaign about to start against Russian refineries, but I'll call it off if you give me the 100 billion in funding and all the Patriot stocks you have (and then add anything else still on the wish list). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 30 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said: If it is ISIS or some Islamic offshoot based in a remote part of Russia, will Russia have the military resources available to counter this threat and bring it under control. Especially if it extends to other territories. Basically--has Russia opened up a two front battle? (Along with their trouble making in Africa.) And, if it is Islamic based, will that have any effect on Chechnya's support of Russia with regards to Ukraine. This could be interesting... Unlikely to be any problem on strategic scale, they (i.e. common people, not authorities who don't care unless it's useful) have problems with religiously-inspired musilim terrorism from time to time, but scale is meagre. Usually it is some gangsters from Caucasus, family feud and this kind of stuff. Chechen national terrorism was basically finished 10-15 years ago, then religious one started but on smaller scale and we didn't see larger acts in last years. So if somebody hope Tartars, Chechens or Ingush suddenly rising up...nope, it won't happen. And Chechens are firmly in Kremlin camp kept by iron-chubby fist of Kadyrov, however I would pay closer attention to Dagestan and Ingushetia- long time ago there were signs there were several schools who could promote this kind of ideology outside of state control. Anyway it is work for police and siloviki, not something deserving to delegate any extra military forces. Naturally, Russian telegrams are already certain it was in fact CIA work (how would US Embassy know before ?), like supposedly most of islamic terrorism worldwide. But that was to be expected. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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