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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Nothing too special about this drone video, except when one flew into the BMP driver hatch.

 

 

Did you see that wicked turn it did on approach?  Poor Russian guys.  Just taking a nap on the back of a BMP (while participating in an illegal invasion)…and boom.

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43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Did you see that wicked turn it did on approach?  Poor Russian guys.  Just taking a nap on the back of a BMP (while participating in an illegal invasion)…and boom.

I've noticed that they never just roll off the the vehicle.  In this instance, not much chance to do anything.  but so many times I see them cringe & shoot & curl into ball.  RU should have training so that the instinctual move is to just jump/roll off.  The drone is after the vehicle, at least the infantry could survive.  But it happens fast and they only way one could react is to have practiced so it becomes an automatic response.

Edited by danfrodo
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2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I've noticed that they never just roll off the the vehicle.  In this instance, not much chance to do anything.  but so many times I see them cringe & shoot & curl into ball.  RU should have training so that the instinctual move is to just jump/roll off.  The drone is after the vehicle, at least the infantry could survive.  But it happens fast and they only way one could react is to have practiced so it becomes an automatic response.

I seriously doubt anyone's training to this point, (if they had any) includes identification of drones and their intent.

Most probably are thinking "what the heck..." and by the time that thought registers, it is too late. They have been acquired and or eliminated.

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Some summry for several days in Robotyne - Verbove pocket. 

Russians stopped intensive assaults, instead this moved here more "Shtrorm -Z/ -V" units, manned with convicts. They send them mostly on foot by small groups, but most of them are successfully eliminated on approaches. 

Sometime Russians throw to probes small armored groups, but they had the same fate - FPV drones and mortars/artillery work on them.

National Guard "Omega" special forces work at two Russian armor vehicles and infantry with AT-4 and AGL in vicinity of Robotyne

Russians in mass became to use here many ATVs - own domestic AM1, Chineese "Desertcross" and donated civilians. Despite some of UKR militaries jokingly called these vehicles GFV (Golfcar Fighting Vehicle), a serviceman from Robotyne in own tweet say this is veryu hard target - ATVs are very fast and maneuver - artillery and mortars can't target them, even for MGs and FPVs they are hard targets to aim. ATVs even not always blow up by mines, so this guy told UKR forces lost two small positions, because Russians rapidly came close on ATVs and bursted in the trenches. 

Though this ATV or small jeep wa not so lucky and blew up on mine

 

Also reportedly Russian deployed some powerful EW system near Robotyne, which when turns on blocks the video channel of FPV drones. 

Edited by Haiduk
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Golfcars also are used by Russians on Avdiivka direction

Situation here still very hard - despite we stabilized situation and our artillery likely got French shells, so reportedly our arty is working tough again, Russians continue own zomby-atatcks, so situation still dynamic and change often. 

Also some words about shells - servicemen tell in twitter they have enough mortar shells, but despite our arty increased own activity, the shells amount still not so proper as before shells shortage. If recently a battery in avarage fired 60-70 ammo for a day, now they can fire about 30 and during final phase of Avdiivka battle this number could be less 10.   

Just for nice picture - FPV has strruck Russian BMP and turned it out in hellish fireball. Likely it hit fuel tanks

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Bakhmut direction. UKR troops reportedly could slightly push back Russians in Bohdanivka and Ivanivske on the northern flank. 

Near Andriivka on the southern flank, large Russian column was destroyed (I wonder why they driven with Bukhankas and Ural to assault...)

As a mockery on background places music and song form cult Soviet movie about VDV

 

Edited by Haiduk
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UKR continues to strike on Russian economy. Several days ago Zelenskyi put a task to GUR and SBU to increase attacks on Russian infrastructure and industrial objects.

Yestardsy UAV hit "Severstal' " steel works in Cherepovets, Vologda oblast. Despite local officials claimed no significant damages and victims, TG sources say the drone badly damaged a blast furnace, which can cause reducing of production.  

 

Cherepovets is in 810 km from neares point from Ukrainian border. "Severstal' " steel works is a huge plant, which alsmot equal by the square to this city.

snimok-ekrana-2024-03-07-154142.png

 

Other incident - unknown it was technical failure or GUR agents sabotage, but in Khanty-Mansiysk autonomus district (Syberia) the oil well сaught fire

 

Edited by Haiduk
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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians in mass became to use here many ATVs - own domestic AM1, Chineese "Desertcross" and donated civilians. Despite some of UKR militaries jokingly called these vehicles GFV (Golfcar Fighting Vehicle), a serviceman from Robotyne in own tweet say this is veryu hard target - ATVs are very fast and maneuver - artillery and mortars can't target them, even for MGs and FPVs they are hard targets to aim. ATVs even not always blow up by mines, so this guy told UKR forces lost two small positions, because Russians rapidly came close on ATVs and bursted in the trenches.

Russians are reading the forum.

On 9/24/2023 at 5:38 AM, The_Capt said:

Take a look at this war.  Infantry walking is exactly what we are seeing. Ya think there might be good reasons for this?  How we can mount and move infantry is another really big question.  Right now I would invest in quad bikes/ATVs over any heavy metal.

 

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16 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

Don't think this has been posted earlier but the Army trying some new tech here.

Airborne soldiers do some smart shooting with new sight that helps smash drones. 

https://www.forces.net/services/army/airborne-soldiers-do-some-smart-shooting-new-sight-helps-smash-drones?fbclid=IwAR0TWthFemVVlX_5RRp79SZg4GiWN8JOPy84i4znNrwF7E1cRtwvIsFwyi4

 

 

verrrrrry Interrresting! The sight looks like a very useful piece of kit. Really brilliant call to have soldiers who don’t usually use firearms such as medics and drivers as opposed to infantry who are usually very used to using the rifles. Much more accurate data on whether it acrypually increases a rate of hits.

Edited by Vet 0369
Errr actually
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International court seeks the arrest of 2 Russian officers over attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure (yahoo.com)

The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Tuesday for two high-ranking Russian military officers on charges linked to attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine that judges said happened “pursuant to a state policy.”

It's only the second time the global court has publicly announced arrest warrants linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. In March 2023, the court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, accusing him of personal responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine.

On Tuesday, the court announced warrants for Russian Lt. Gen. Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash, who was commander of the Long-Range Aviation of the Aerospace Force at the times of the alleged crimes. Also wanted is Russian Navy Adm. Viktor Kinolayevich Sokolov, who was the commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

They are wanted for the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects, causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects, and the crime against humanity of inhumane acts.

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This month's target list has been provided by the Russian Defense Ministry - thank you very much!

Ukraine's military intelligence claims cyberattack on Russian Defense Ministry (yahoo.com)

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) launched a cyberattack attack against the servers of the Russian Defense Ministry, gaining access to "a bulk of classified service documents," the agency said on March 4.

The operation by military intelligence cyber specialists reportedly helped to obtain orders, reports, instructions, and reports "that circulated among about 2,000 structural units of the Russian security service," as well as information security and encryption software.

The analysis of captured data also helped to identify generals and other high-level commanders of the Russian Defense Ministry's structural units and "all those who used the software for electronic document management," the agency's statement read.

The agency claims to have obtained official documents of Timur Ivanov, a Russian deputy defense minister.

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What I'm seeing in these reports is that the Russia winter offensive has petered out.  After taking Avdiivka they went on a fairly large scale offensive front wide and it seems Russia has benefited very little from it.  Lots of losses, not much territory, and as has been the case for much of this war... no exploitation.  As I observed many pages ago, it seems they expend too much of their immediate combat power taking X that they have nothing left to take Y.

At least that's the way it seems to be going.

On top of this, Ukraine is keeping up the pressure on Russian air and naval forces.  Any reports of the airforce's activity level in the last few days?  It was reported significant decline after Ukraine's week of shoot downs.

And of course we have further evidence that pretty much nowhere in European Russia is safe from Ukraine's reach.  NORTH of Moscow... man, that's crazy.  Crazy good.

Nice to see some good news being reported after all the doom and gloom some people insisted on focusing on.  This war's not over by a long shot.

Steve

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https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html

Quote

 In late 2022, the US began “preparing rigorously” for Russia potentially striking Ukraine with a nuclear weapon, in what would have been the first nuclear attack in war since the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki nearly eighty years before, two senior administration officials told CNN.

The Biden administration was specifically concerned Russia might use a tactical or battlefield nuclear weapon, the officials said.

I first reported US officials were worried about Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon in 2022, but in my new book, “The Return of Great Powers” publishing on March 12, I reveal exclusive details on the unprecedented level of contingency planning carried out as senior members of the Biden administration became increasingly alarmed by the situation.

 

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