How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They tend to conserve older units for crucial moments, but it is wrong to assume most of Storm-Z are convicts, "500-s" or narcomans. There are plenty of actual volunteers there and nowadays regular units are also thrown into assaults as well, when needed. Generally, Russian army now perform task that were reserved for Wagner or LDPR cannon fodder before. Which is not necessarly good sign.

 

[Ninja'ed by Grigb.]

Alright, but I think the main point still stands: What we see as useless foolish and wasteful assaults are seen by the Russians as reconnaisance in force.

[Kraft]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Anthony Perpetua is clocking Russian losses at effectively double the Swedish tally. We'll see who is right eventually.

 

I only found the daily twitter updates from him, does he have a cumulative list for comparison? Sorry I am terrible navigating twitter

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/us/politics/russia-nuclear-weapon-space.html

In recent weeks, a new warning has circulated from America’s spy agencies: Another launch may be in the works, and the question is whether Russia plans to use it to put a real nuclear weapon into space — a violation of a half-century old treaty. The agencies are divided on the likelihood that President Vladimir V. Putin would go so far, but nonetheless the intelligence is an urgent concern to the Biden administration.

 

this is an escalation by the Russians but all the coverage does a lousy job of pointing out that this is not a technical breakthrough of some sort. It is just just a violation of a fifty year old treaty. The treaty is fifty years old because the technology to do it has been around for at least that long. The U.S. should be very clear that the first two things we will do if the Russian were set actually set thing off is kill every Russian soldier in Ukraine, and their entire surface navy.

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I only found the daily twitter updates from him, does he have a cumulative list for comparison? Sorry I am terrible navigating twitter

I haven't seen it. Just noted a comment he made about it.

[panzermartin]

I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time. Kinda like northern Cyprus. I think Ukraine's military peak was at the summer offensive. Can't get better anymore imo. I think now the problem lies not in equipment but in manpower and collective will to continue the fight. 

It will be impossible for Ukraine to gather the mass needed to take back strongholds the way Russia does. Drone harrasment can of course continue infinitely.  I see no end to the attacks on the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine as well. Naval drones will probably continue to harass the russian ships. Unless they think of protective nettings and other measures, that would be a major headache. 

I think we might reach a point the best both sides could achieve would be a cease fire with probably Donbas and Crimea going to Russia. 

 

 

 

[Grigb]

I'm digging around, and here's a little snippet of what the RU improved - infantry cooperation with aerial bombardment. In later phases of Avdiivka battle, meat groups began assaulting more aggressively immediately after bombing, attempting to overrun the bombed area as quickly as possible.

There are claims that it worked extremely effectively against weakened UKR units. Weakened UKR units tend to leave bombarded areas altogether, giving aggressive RU meat groups the perfect chance to overrun areas before stronger UKR units arrive for counterattack.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time. Kinda like northern Cyprus. I think Ukraine's military peak was at the summer offensive. Can't get better anymore imo. I think now the problem lies not in equipment but in manpower and collective will to continue the fight. 

It will be impossible for Ukraine to gather the mass needed to take back strongholds the way Russia does. Drone harrasment can of course continue infinitely.  I see no end to the attacks on the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine as well. Naval drones will probably continue to harass the russian ships. Unless they think of protective nettings and other measures, that would be a major headache. 

I think we might reach a point the best both sides could achieve would be a cease fire with probably Donbas and Crimea going to Russia. 

 

 

 

 

Here we go again. 

[dan/california]

My impression, and it is only that, is that it is the glide bombs that making the difference. Russia has reportedly dropped literally a couple of hundred of them on Avdiivka in the last couple of weeks. Ukraine either needs enough SAMs to be able to take risks with them, or it needs those F16s in service with the Meteor AAMs. I think those are the only thing Western inventory with the range to keep the F-!6s out the Russian AA envelope.

[panzermartin]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Here we go again. 

What do you propose? 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I'm digging around, and here's a little snippet of what the RU improved - infantry cooperation with aerial bombardment. In later phases of Avdiivka battle, meat groups began assaulting more aggressively immediately after bombing, attempting to overrun the bombed area as quickly as possible.

There are claims that it worked extremely effectively against weakened UKR units. Weakened UKR units tend to leave bombarded areas altogether, giving aggressive RU meat groups the perfect chance to overrun areas before stronger UKR units arrive for counterattack.

 

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

What do you propose? 

That the Russians can't lose a couple of thousand people a day for forever.

[panzermartin]

Just now, dan/california said:

 

That the Russians can't lose a couple of thousand people a day for forever.

But the Ukrainians can? 

[Pablius]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Also from this 2002 report from Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/submunitions.pdf
these countries also produce 155mm munitions:

    Argentina
    Egypt
    Israel
    Pakistan

Singapore produces 152mm shells.
 

Hi from Argentina, as far as I can tell we no longer produce 155mm, just last year production of 105mm was reactivated after a decade or so and probably at a very low rate; there are a few articles discussing the possibility of producing 155mm again giving it´s high demand, but couldn't find anything about the actual feasibility of doing it.

On one hand given the profound economic crisis here I wouldn't bet much on our production capacity, on the other hand we currently have as much a pro US government as you can ask from Latin America, maybe there is a deal to be made.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

But the Ukrainians can? 

I think Ukraine's casualties are between a tenth and fifth of the Russia's. Which isn't great, but is tolerable given that the alternative is the entire country being turned into a concentration camp. There is at least some possibility the the Russians will wake up one morning and realize that they can just go home. The more ammo we send the faster they will figure that out.

Edited February 17 by dan/california

[Holien]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

But the Ukrainians can

Nope and they won't have to with the right support (ammo, equipment, ISR and airsupport) and training, but alas this year will not be the year when all the stars will be aligned.

Ukraine needs to survive this turbulent year and if the American situation improves then maybe next year.

The continued damage to Russian control of Crimea and their rear areas (manufacturing, petrol, gas) production will cause Russia serious issues that might bring down the house of cards...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Alright, but I think the main point still stands: What we see as useless foolish and wasteful assaults are seen by the Russians as reconnaisance in force.

Comparisions to Red Army in WWII, WWI stormtroopers or even US assaults on Pacific islands seem to be more common in rusnet; they definitelly know it is not reconaisance but full fledged, extremely bloody assaults. Tactics are already there, tried in Severdonetsk, Backhmut etc. Now they know what to expect,  improved their coordination with drones (big difference now, compared to year ago), airforce (well, somewhat...) and have access to more precision firing- still worse than AFU, but more of it.

Also this time it seems their victory is less lousy and more genuine than Bakhmut, but it may be connected to more effective censorship now. Still it is bloody as hell, but war-interested people there see (or think they see) some light at the end of tunnel. Others, like we wrote page ago, lament amount of casualties. The big questions is how many more of these they can have before they will run out of potential.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

There are claims that it worked extremely effectively against weakened UKR units. Weakened UKR units tend to leave bombarded areas altogether, giving aggressive RU meat groups the perfect chance to overrun areas before stronger UKR units arrive for counterattack.

That is quite a typical dynamic. Since WWI the tactic of vacating the first line in case of heavy bombardement has been used (although more often in connection with artillery bombardment than air). And the classic attacker's response to this is infiltration. 

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I think Ukraine's casualties are between a tenth and fifth of the Russia's.

Equipment loses, yes, but casualties are probably less lop-sided.

 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

I freely acknowledge that these people extremely brave and well intentioned, but it would be vastly more useful to get sent to a gulag for railroad sabotage than for holding up a sign.

easily said from the comfort of your couch here in the US.

[kimbosbread]

6 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Why without glide bombs? What would prevent russia from using glide bombs around Robotyne?

Because Robotnye is much better for sambushes and closer to the Ukrainian strongpoints ie Kherson/river. Donetsk is kind of surrounded on several sides which is less than ideal.

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

I'm digging around, and here's a little snippet of what the RU improved - infantry cooperation with aerial bombardment.

In areas that are surrounded, the aerial bombardment (in lieu of artillery) works well. I don’t think Robotyne is nearly as feasible for this unless they want to lose a lot more jets. And F16s in theory are coming quite soon.

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

My impression, and it is only that, is that it is the glide bombs that making the difference. Russia has reportedly dropped literally a couple of hundred of them on Avdiivka in the last couple of weeks. Ukraine either needs enough SAMs to be able to take risks with them, or it needs those F16s in service with the Meteor AAMs. I think those are the only thing Western inventory with the range to keep the F-!6s out the Russian AA envelope.

Well, depends on the AO. I think Robotyne is way less favorable- not as favorable as Kherson, but way better than Donetsk- even without F16s and a lot more SAMs.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Well, depends on the AO. I think Robotyne is way less favorable- not as favorable as Kherson, but way better than Donetsk- even without F16s and a lot more SAMs.

Iwas referring specifically to Avdiivka, and how it is just too risky to push western SAM systems forward there.

[Vet 0369]

22 hours ago, Sequoia said:

I think we both agree that far too many politicians have and continue to put their own ambition and status above the good of the country. I strongly suspect a strong streak of vanity and desire for power are necessary qualities one needs to enter into politics.

I have seen exceptions. When I lived and worked in Wichita, KS, in the 1970s, a “first-timer” was running for Congress. He promised to send a synopsis of all major bills to his constituents each month to poll how they wanted him to vote on the Bill.  I took a chance and voted for him, even though his party wasn’t the one which I usually agreed. He followed through on his promise by sending the poll to ALL constitutes in his District. Until he was appointed Secretary of Agriculture by President Obama. Even though I didn’t necessarily agree with all his positions, I respected him.

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

easily said from the comfort of your couch here in the US.

Well that is true of virtually everything said on this forum isn't it? I am simply looking trying to encourage people who are A in Russia, and B suicidally brave to spend their lives and futures wisely. Three minutes of sign waving for what amounts to life in a Gulag just doesn't seem like a good bargain.

Edited February 18 by dan/california

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Well that is true of virtually everything said on this forum isn't it? I am simply looking trying to encourage people who are A in Russia, and B suicidally brave to spend their lives and futures wisely. Three minutes of sign waving for what amounts to life in a Gulag just doesn't seem like a good bargain.

 I don't think the folks waving signs are actually getting life in the Gulag.  The Russian state certainly isn't going to treat holding the sign the same as active sabotage. C'mon man.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

 I don't think the folks waving signs are actually getting life in the Gulag.  The Russian state certainly isn't going to treat holding the sign the same as active sabotage. C'mon man.

 

Quote

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-duma-false-news-war-law-invasion/31734629.html

The bill envisions penalties of up to 10 years in prison for individuals convicted of the offense. The penalty for the distribution of "false news" about the Russian Army that leads to "serious consequences" rises to up to 15 years in prison.

 

Just one example among many. 

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Just one example among many. 

not sure why you posted as it doesn't support your statement of life.  It says "up to 10 years".  What do you suppose the penalty for actually derailing a train would be?  These folks are taking a serious risk, taking the step to move to actual sabotage is not a small thing.  Now you are looking at life for sure and in Russia maybe worse.  Not only for you but everyone you know is now under the optics as they look for the organization that would be implied by that level of action.  You are talking just average folks, not trained military.

Am I disappointed that the Russian people have behaved so horribly supporting a genocidal war against their neighbors? yeah.  However I do understand the psychological effort it takes to hold to a position on your principles without knowing for sure what the cost will be.  I did 7 1/2 months in a much more lenient state with the potential to have done several years more.

The downside for Putin is when you make it illegal to do anything without serious consequences, you drive people to do more serious stuff.  Enacting this law also reflects fear on Russia's part.  They wouldn't take this step if they didn't think there was potential for more protests.  We keep wondering just where Russia's breaking point is.  This seems to indicate Putin is also concerned about that.