How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be a Ukrainian psyop, but it is more likely to be as it seems.

Steve

Doubt it is psyop, there have been indications for quite a while the Russian aviation was in trouble.  The one item that hadn't been mentioned before and am unsure of what is implied there is the comment about maintenance.  Parts were always mentioned as an issue but this -

Quote

Russia, due to the lack of capacity and specialists in Moscow, is trying to redirect aircraft maintenance to Iran, where the work is carried out in a "makeshift manner" without appropriate certification.

implies that perhaps the support personnel may also have ben siphoned off by the war effort.

[Fenris]

Two mobility kills for General Mud.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

If we built this large wooden badger....

https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=48441

'General Maus' is quite an old problem, alongside 'General Mud' and 'General Winter.'

[Beleg85]

Just a silly snippet for anniversary of Maidan...it happened that Vadim Titushko, infamous hooligan whose name was given to entire kind of street-thugs of pro-Yanukovych clan (titushki) is now a decorated sergant in Ukrainian 72nd Brigade. Sometimes war takes the best from people...

 

[Harmon Rabb]

One less T-80. Relevantly old video but intense. Skip to 0:16 if you just want the action right away.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, sburke said:

Doubt it is psyop, there have been indications for quite a while the Russian aviation was in trouble.  The one item that hadn't been mentioned before and am unsure of what is implied there is the comment about maintenance.  Parts were always mentioned as an issue but this -

implies that perhaps the support personnel may also have ben siphoned off by the war effort.

Personnel lost to the war effort is possible, but it is also possible they got laid off because they didn't have work to keep everybody busy.  Or they are referring to Russian mechanics not having the experience of jury rigging stuff like the Iranians do.

Whatever the case is, I'm sure it's accurate.  What I was less sure about is Ukraine stating they have tons of documents proving that things are "near collapse".  It could be they are deliberately blowing it out of proportion from what the situation really is.  However, my bet is that it's fully accurate.

Steve

[Gpig]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

One less T-80. Relevantly old video but intense. Skip to 0:16 if you just want the action right away.

Looks like the whole crew survived. Lucky for them.

You guys think it was a Javelin?

 

[Aragorn2002]

18 hours ago, Kraft said:

The Dutch have made very sizeable contributions, this however seems to come to an end now with (another) anti-EU alt right wing populist getting elected in Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-dutch-wilders-idUSBREA3G1CS20140417/

 

Nothing will change. Wilders is far more reasonable than Orban and a realist. He's demonised by the media and only could get attention by radical statements, but he's far too smart to risk his opportunity to form a coalition. Apart from that his coalition partners won't stand for stopping military aid to Ukraine, neither would the entire nation, which is firmly behind Ukraine's freedom struggle. Those F-16s will be delivered.

Somewhat less immigation, which is necessary. And more attention for security and defence. Good old crime fighting, also badly necessary. No burning mosques or closed Koran schools. No Nexit, no referendum on Nexit, no improved relations with Putin. If Wilders doesn't except that, we will have new elections very soon.

All in all far from ideal, but Wilders has to pour a lot of water in the wine, as we say overhere.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like an American Naval vessel was targeted by Houthi relebels with suicide drones that were defeated:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4324690-us-warship-attack-drones-red-sea/

Steve

[Zeleban]

Meanwhile, there is literally a blockade of Ukraine. It seems that every day Ukraine is becoming more and more cut off from its Western neighbors. No supplies from volunteers to the front, no quadcopters, thermal imagers, hemostatic tourniquets. In addition, there are excellent prospects for pitting nearby neighbors against each other. What else does Putin need to successfully defeat Ukraine? 

[panzermartin]

https://jp.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-amundi-russia/russias-economic-growth-shows-western-sanctions-ineffective-says-fund-manager-amundis-cio-idUKL8N3CO2U2

 

[Snols]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Meanwhile, there is literally a blockade of Ukraine. It seems that every day Ukraine is becoming more and more cut off from its Western neighbors. No supplies from volunteers to the front, no quadcopters, thermal imagers, hemostatic tourniquets. In addition, there are excellent prospects for pitting nearby neighbors against each other. What else does Putin need to successfully defeat Ukraine? 

Protesters at Polish-Ukrainian border allow to pass humanitarian and military aid. Former government negligence and stupidity in this area (grain trade) made a lot of unnecessary tensions between PL and UA. 

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, Snols said:

Protesters at Polish-Ukrainian border allow to pass humanitarian and military aid. Former government negligence and stupidity in this area (grain trade) made a lot of unnecessary tensions between PL and UA. 

But what about Slovakia, Hungary and Moldova? By the way, I didn’t even mention Poland in my post

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

But what about Slovakia, Hungary and Moldova? By the way, I didn’t even mention Poland in my post

The first tweet you posted did.

Ukraine is going through a horrific time right now but other countries still have to go about their daily lives.  These kinds of issues, rooted in micro-social rifts and insecurities that have nothing to do with Ukraine, were and are always going to happen.  The rest of Europe, that is not at war, can't and won't cease their normal internal politics and focus solely on Ukraine.  It's just not realistic.

Most people in the West have seen Ukraine's summer offensive fall pretty flat without really understanding why, so they feel a bit deflated.  Israel-Gaza has mostly knocked Ukraine off the front pages in western media, basically because there is so much controversy involved rather than the 'pure' good vs. bad that is Ukraine/Russia.  Winter is also here and so it's cold and dark and people are stressed about Christmas and family and energy bills.  Beneath that all, though, support for Ukraine is basically unaffected.

If you want to find signs that Ukraine isn't the only thing that concerns the rest of Europe and then interpret that as 'switching sides to support Russia' I can't stop you but do understand that that is what you are doing.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Tux

[Zeleban]

22 minutes ago, Tux said:

The first tweet you posted did.

Ukraine is going through a horrific time right now but other countries still have to go about their daily lives.  These kinds of issues, rooted in micro-social rifts and insecurities that have nothing to do with Ukraine, were and are always going to happen.  The rest of Europe, that is not at war, can't and won't cease their normal internal politics and focus solely on Ukraine.  It's just not realistic.

Most people in the West have seen Ukraine's summer offensive fall pretty flat without really understanding why, so they feel a bit deflated.  Israel-Gaza has mostly knocked Ukraine off the front pages in western media, basically because there is so much controversy involved rather than the 'pure' good vs. bad that is Ukraine/Russia.  Winter is also here and so it's cold and dark and people are stressed about Christmas and family and energy bills.  Beneath that all, though, support for Ukraine is basically unaffected.

If you want to find signs that Ukraine isn't the only thing that concerns the rest of Europe and then interpret that as 'switching sides to support Russia' I can't stop you but do understand that that is what you are doing.

 

OK OK. I understand that people in Europe have a lot of their own problems. Explain to me why they are blocking the border with Ukraine, instead of holding rallies in their capitals in front of their parliament buildings?

After all, according to your statements, Ukraine has long since disappeared from the front pages of Western newspapers and does not attract the same interest as last year. Why would they attract attention to themselves in this way?

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

OK OK. I understand that people in Europe have a lot of their own problems. Explain to me why they are blocking the border with Ukraine, instead of holding rallies in their capitals in front of their parliament buildings?

From Reuters:

Quote

Truckers from Ukraine have been exempt from seeking permits to cross since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Polish and Slovak drivers say that has undercut business.

I imagine they see this as a far quicker way to make an impact. It’s caught our attention, after all.

 

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

After all, according to your statements, Ukraine has long since disappeared from the front pages of Western newspapers and does not attract the same interest as last year. Why would they attract attention to themselves in this way?

No, it hasn’t “long since” disappeared. There have been 2-3 articles on Ukraine on the BBC main page in the last week or so, from memory. It’s just mostly been trumped by Israel/Palestine, recently.

However, as per the above, the reason they are attracting attention to themselves in this way is because they specifically have an issue with unlicensed Ukrainian drivers damaging their business (or so they claim).  Blocking Ukrainian trucks at the border by way of protest seems fairly rational, given that.

Like I said, I’m not here to justify things or tell you how to interpret the news - especially given your country’s desperate situation.  I do think there are fewer portents of doom going around than you do, though.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Tux said:

The first tweet you posted did.

Ukraine is going through a horrific time right now but other countries still have to go about their daily lives.  These kinds of issues, rooted in micro-social rifts and insecurities that have nothing to do with Ukraine, were and are always going to happen.  The rest of Europe, that is not at war, can't and won't cease their normal internal politics and focus solely on Ukraine.  It's just not realistic.

Correct, except it has nothing to do with failed offensive: these are grassroot, not official protest in reaction for (another) border problem stemming from way much faster than normal access of Ukraine to European markets.  There was no time to reach complex,  pan-European conclusion in many areas in case of agricultural products, transport,small business etc.   Such things happen and will happen for a long time; in different countries in EU among various working groups are threatened by cheaper Ukrainian labour and products. It's unavoidable, I would say, and various border disagreements and small trade wars are reality from day one of invasion, like they were before the war. They are additioanlly fuelled by centralized, oligarchic system of UA agriculture and (to slightly better degree) transport, where literally several corrupted barons can hold the grasp on government and force "no step backward" policy.

Suffice to say, I personally heard stories and saw photos from refugees 27.II. about local farmers still blocking their roads with tracktors inside UA, circa 10kms from border crossings - it took half a day and personal intervention of internal minister to remove them. That was while Russian tanks were closing on Kyiv, mind you- he called them from bunker.

Sooner or later some agreemtent will be probably reached.

 

Interesting... clip suggets that Russian Omon raided this local version of Amazon and gave voyenkomat calls to employees working there from outside Russia...could be a Ukrainian psyops though, there were several of this kind already, but similar practices in Russia were not unheard of before.

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kraft]

Quote

Unfortunately, we lost a number of positions near Andriivka and Klishchiivka, I will not argue with the fact that we suffered losses, but the operational situation in the south of Bakhmut is controlled by the Defense Forces of Ukraine, the initiative is ours, despite the tactical successes of the enemy, we do not allow success to develop.

In the north of the fortress, russians do not go to storm the positions, FPV and skirmishes dismantle the positions... We lose the position not because of the assault, but because there are simply no whole people left..

 

[Zeleban]

55 minutes ago, Tux said:

However, as per the above, the reason they are attracting attention to themselves in this way is because they specifically have an issue with unlicensed Ukrainian drivers damaging their business (or so they claim).  Blocking Ukrainian trucks at the border by way of protest seems fairly rational, given that.

I think you have noticed that truckers from several countries bordering Ukraine are participating in the strike, and they do it simultaneously. While truckers from other European countries do not see this as a problem.

At least European truckers have a much greater sense of unity than European politicians.

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

 

Yes it's true. Ukraine is running out of people. At least ready to fight. While Russia is only increasing the number of new units at the expense of untrained mobs, Ukraine has practically no men left who are ready to voluntarily go to the front. There are no such people among my old friends. They all unanimously declare that they would rather flee to the west than go into the trenches.

Unfortunately, this is our current reality. Ukrainians' faith in victory has been undermined. And this happened just in the last few months 

The morale of the people I knew collapsed literally before my eyes. First, the Blockade of Military Aid from the US House of Representatives. Then a devastating article from Time. And finally, “help” from truck drivers from Europe. The anger of Ukrainians against the authorities, their allies and each other has reached its climax

In the information field of Ukraine one can hear almost direct calls for the overthrow of the government. Everyone is looking for the culprit of failures and, as is usually the case in Ukrainian society, the scapegoat is seen in the president and his entourage. There is no longer a trace left of the image of Zelensky’s savior. Now this is the image of a loser (the next one will be the image of a traitor)

So I can say with confidence that Ukraine is losing this war and the main reason is not the lack of shells or tanks, but the lack of desire among Ukrainians to fight further. Of course, the soldiers at the front are still fighting, but how long will their persistence last if there are no motivated reserves left?

I think that everything will be decided before the new year (Putin knows about the disastrous state of morality in Ukrainian society, so he threw all his strength into achieving success at the front, because the last blow remained). I am confident that Ukraine will enter 2024 without part of its territories occupied by Russia.

 

What will happen next can be easily predicted by anyone familiar with Ukrainian society. Total depression, devastation, economic decline (and, of course, Russia’s behind-the-scenes game) will very quickly bring pro-Russian politicians to power. Events in Georgia developed in a similar way. After the 2008 war, despite all the troubles that Russia brought to this country, pro-Moscow politicians soon came to power there, who retain their power to this day.

So I think that over the next 5 years, Moscow may well absorb the rest of Ukraine

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes it's true. Ukraine is running out of people. At least ready to fight. While Russia is only increasing the number of new units at the expense of untrained mobs, Ukraine has practically no men left who are ready to voluntarily go to the front. There are no such people among my old friends. They all unanimously declare that they would rather flee to the west than go into the trenches.

Unfortunately, this is our current reality. Ukrainians' faith in victory has been undermined. And this happened just in the last few months 

The morale of the people I knew collapsed literally before my eyes. First, the Blockade of Military Aid from the US House of Representatives. Then a devastating article from Time. And finally, “help” from truck drivers from Europe. The anger of Ukrainians against the authorities, their allies and each other has reached its climax

In the information field of Ukraine one can hear almost direct calls for the overthrow of the government. Everyone is looking for the culprit of failures and, as is usually the case in Ukrainian society, the scapegoat is seen in the president and his entourage. There is no longer a trace left of the image of Zelensky’s savior. Now this is the image of a loser (the next one will be the image of a traitor)

So I can say with confidence that Ukraine is losing this war and the main reason is not the lack of shells or tanks, but the lack of desire among Ukrainians to fight further. Of course, the soldiers at the front are still fighting, but how long will their persistence last if there are no motivated reserves left?

I think that everything will be decided before the new year (Putin knows about the disastrous state of morality in Ukrainian society, so he threw all his strength into achieving success at the front, because the last blow remained). I am confident that Ukraine will enter 2024 without part of its territories occupied by Russia.

 

What will happen next can be easily predicted by anyone familiar with Ukrainian society. Total depression, devastation, economic decline (and, of course, Russia’s behind-the-scenes game) will very quickly bring pro-Russian politicians to power. Events in Georgia developed in a similar way. After the 2008 war, despite all the troubles that Russia brought to this country, pro-Moscow politicians soon came to power there, who retain their power to this day.

So I think that over the next 5 years, Moscow may well absorb the rest of Ukraine

I am not sure if this is a bit or your headspace.

If it is a bit designed to somehow push us towards "more support before Ukrainian will fails" it really is a bad idea.  If the West starts to believe that Ukrainian will is buckling no matter what we do, the entire thing starts to look like a bad investment.  This will accelerate withdrawal of support not encourage it.

If this is real...well, the West cannot send crates of "will" over the border.  Neither does more money or sexier weapons create willpower; the first month of this war proved that in spades.  If Ukrainian willpower fails then it constitutes a decision by its people.  A coerced decision, but a decision one-the-less.  Ukraine becomes Southern Vietnam or the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, another lesson in how we cannot defend a place that refuses to defend itself.  If this is a reality in Ukrainian society then Russia was going to absorb Ukraine one day regardless of how this war turns out.  All we really did was buy time and make it expensive.

You live there so are much closer to the social coalface than I, but I really have not seen any clear indication of the collapse of Ukrainian will.  Are the training centers in NATO nations running out of people to train?  Are we seeing mass desertions?  Draft dodging happens in every war.  How systemic is it in Ukraine right now?  We do not see mass migrations or exodus from Ukraine.  National infrastructure failures?

Militarily...FFS there has been one tepid operational offensive that did not deliver as much as people were hoping for.  Hardly a reason to start waving the white flag of war.

Maybe you should go talk to someone, or try to take a break (tall ask, given your situation).  Having been in bad situations such as yours, even an hour of escapism can be helpful.

 

[Tux]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe you should go talk to someone, or try to take a break (tall ask, given your situation).  Having been in bad situations such as yours, even an hour of escapism can be helpful.

This.

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure if this is a bit or your headspace.

If it is a bit designed to somehow push us towards "more support before Ukrainian will fails" it really is a bad idea.  If the West starts to believe that Ukrainian will is buckling no matter what we do, the entire thing starts to look like a bad investment.  This will accelerate withdrawal of support not encourage it.

If this is real...well, the West cannot send crates of "will" over the border.  Neither does more money or sexier weapons create willpower; the first month of this war proved that in spades.  If Ukrainian willpower fails then it constitutes a decision by its people.  A coerced decision, but a decision one-the-less.  Ukraine becomes Southern Vietnam or the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, another lesson in how we cannot defend a place that refuses to defend itself.  If this is a reality in Ukrainian society then Russia was going to absorb Ukraine one day regardless of how this war turns out.  All we really did was buy time and make it expensive.

You live there so are much closer to the social coalface than I, but I really have not seen any clear indication of the collapse of Ukrainian will.  Are the training centers in NATO nations running out of people to train?  Are we seeing mass desertions?  Draft dodging happens in every war.  How systemic is it in Ukraine right now?  We do not see mass migrations or exodus from Ukraine.  National infrastructure failures?

Militarily...FFS there has been one tepid operational offensive that did not deliver as much as people were hoping for.  Hardly a reason to start waving the white flag of war.

Maybe you should go talk to someone, or try to take a break (tall ask, given your situation).  Having been in bad situations such as yours, even an hour of escapism can be helpful.

 

 

I have no idea how many instructors there are in NATO training centers. I also don’t know how many soldiers deserted from the Ukrainian army. I said that the military at the front is still holding their positions.

I just described the views of Ukrainian citizens in the rear. I think there is no need to remind that without the will to resist in the rear, there will be no resistance at the front.

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Tux said:

This.

Do you mean to stop communicating with my fellow countrymen?

[Zeleban]

I have always remained quite optimistic in my views on this war. What I described in the post above did not arise out of nowhere, but as a result of communication with my friends