How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

I dont think there will be an 'okay we give up', before lack of support forces this decision as the war is not really sustainable without western aid.

Will it happen - I dont know.

Rise of far right anti-EU (often Putin funded) in Europe is very worrying and US elections I think will prove decisive as I believe Biden Admin is keeping support temporarily low to keep chances of winning higher.

But then again I thought ATACMS would be the deciding factor for Taurus and I was wrong, so maybe I am biased in my judgement of political will .

[Beleg85]

42 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Unfortunately, this is our current reality. Ukrainians' faith in victory has been undermined. And this happened just in the last few months 

The morale of the people I knew collapsed literally before my eyes. First, the Blockade of Military Aid from the US House of Representatives. Then a devastating article from Time. And finally, “help” from truck drivers from Europe. The anger of Ukrainians against the authorities, their allies and each other has reached its climax

Mate, I think you are overreacting a little here. If one dubious article and several protesting truckers are enough to break the will of country that endured  50k KIA and beat the crap out of Russians in two successfull offensives, than I suppose we observe very different war. You are right about danger of Russian subversion and weakened morale after failure of summer offensive, but it is question of general direction where the war is going (lack of clear "roadsigns" in entire thing), not some mortal danger within Ukraine itself. I also doubt - and can base here on many experts, including Ukrianians themselves- that only thing that kept your folks going for so long was one last hope of successfull offensive. This war is not rollercoster, it's bloody marathon.

[Kinophile]

Oh David.  Really? C'mon man you can do better than spouting Ropke. 

 

[akd]

Russian fatalism viewed through some powerful drone optics:

Claim of successful Russian mining operation at Avdiivka:

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

Regarding this whole trucker blockade I'm disappointment by it, but I'm an outsider looking in. Would anyone from Europe be able to verify what Jürgen Nauditt says? (I have only found his Twitter account today)

 

Quote

russian special services are involved in blocking Ukraine's border with Poland and Slovakia This was the conclusion reached by the investigators of the Guildhall information agency, after analyzing the party affiliation, the sphere of activity and the circle of communication of the persons who are the direct organizers of the road "protests" on our western border. Rafal Mekler is the official organizer of blocking the Ukrainian border with Poland. He is the owner of the transport company Rafał Mekler Transport and the head of the branch of the pro-Russian party "Confederation of Freedom and Independence" in the Lublin Voivodeship. "Confederation" is known for its pro-Russian positions and views. Its leader, Janusz Korvyn-Mikke, called on the Polish government to recognize the occupation of Crimea, traveled to the annexed peninsula himself and even met there with the local Gauleiter of the Russian Federation Aksyonov. In Slovakia, neighboring Poland, the organizers of the action to block the border are activists of the public organization "Union of Motor Carriers of Slovakia" (UNAS). The blocking was supported by the anti-European right-wing radical party "Our Slovakia". This political force is known for its friendly contacts with the Russian Federation and officially advocates the "restoration of friendly ties" with the aggressor country.

 

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Mate, I think you are overreacting a little here. If one dubious article and several protesting truckers are enough to break the will of country that endured  50k KIA and beat the crap out of Russians in two successfull offensives, than I suppose we observe very different war.

You described the beginning of this war, and now the second part of the war is underway. This is the opinion of many friends. They are not ultra-patriots or nationalists, they are just average Ukrainians and there are a majority of them in our society. If at the beginning of the war they expressed anger towards Russia because of all the troubles that Russia caused them, now it is only apathy, defeatism. They closely followed developments using social networks. The chaos that is now happening in the Ukrainian information space is difficult to describe.

[akd]

Ukrainian infantry counterattack with close air support provided by drone:

 

[Splinty]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

You described the beginning of this war, and now the second part of the war is underway. This is the opinion of many friends. They are not ultra-patriots or nationalists, they are just average Ukrainians and there are a majority of them in our society. If at the beginning of the war they expressed anger towards Russia because of all the troubles that Russia caused them, now it is only apathy, defeatism. They closely followed developments using social networks. The chaos that is now happening in the Ukrainian information space is difficult to describe.

If they are staying home while their nation is fighting for its life, and whining that Ukraine is losing this far into the war. They are cowards. Sorry, but that's the truth.

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

You described the beginning of this war, and now the second part of the war is underway. This is the opinion of many friends. They are not ultra-patriots or nationalists, they are just average Ukrainians and there are a majority of them in our society. If at the beginning of the war they expressed anger towards Russia because of all the troubles that Russia caused them, now it is only apathy, defeatism. They closely followed developments using social networks. The chaos that is now happening in the Ukrainian information space is difficult to describe.

Well, we know it was going to be that way if offensive failed beyond expectations (and they were huge and unwisely infalted by various coteries both in and outside UA). We even discussed it here in length, you can check posts from late winter, any conclusion was to prepare yourself mentally on failures, stoppages and problems. They are ingrained in the process of such long war, and were gonna happen anyway even if AFU captured Tokmak.

Informational chaos was as long as I remember after first phase of honeymoon, Poroshenko jumping on Zelensky, various political coteries criticizing others for these or that military failures. Also Russian influence is very likely here.

 

I think the problem here is lack of any visible light at the end of tunnel (for now) of how this whole thing is supposed to end; NATO should try to communicate clear strategy for UA asap.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

If they are staying home while their nation is fighting for its life, and whining that Ukraine is losing this far into the war. They are cowards. Sorry, but that's the truth.

And this is a large part of our nation. At least the part that remained in the rear

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Well, we know it was going to be that way if offensive failed beyond expectations (and they were huge and unwisely infalted by various coteries both in and outside UA). We even discussed it here in length, you can check posts from late winter, any conclusion was to prepare yourself mentally on failures, stoppages and problems. They were gonna happen anyway, even if AFU captured Tokmak.

Informational chaos was as long as I remember after first phase of honeymoon, Poroshenko jumping on Zelensky, various political coteries criticizing others for these or that military failures. Also Russian influence is very likely here.

 

I think the problem here is lack of any visible light at the end of tunnel (for now) of how this whole thing is supposed to end; NATO should try to communicate clear strategy for UA asap.

Yes, but now not only political circles criticize each other, but also ordinary citizens. I see a clear divide in our society that is growing literally every week

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but now not only political circles criticize each other, but also ordinary citizens. I see a clear divide in our society that is growing literally every week

That was going to happen anyway, with or without successes in Zaporizhia. Unless someone really believed bragging by Budanov that AFU tanks will wash their tracks in Black Sea by Christmas. I am also not sure how much you are in your own social bubble here (mind, we all have one); my contacts, analysts and many other people who are in Ukraine every second week serving soldiers with stuff paint diferent mental picture: it will be difficult winter, but we will endure. Rifts are visible, but it looks like temporary hangover. Grudgings on insufficent Western help are there, but they are as old as this war.

Edited November 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Well, we know it was going to be that way if offensive failed beyond expectations (and they were huge and unwisely infalted by various coteries both in and outside UA). We even discussed it here in length, you can check posts from late winter, any conclusion was to prepare yourself mentally on failures, stoppages and problems. They are ingrained in the process of such long war, and were gonna happen anyway even if AFU captured Tokmak.

I think we got pulled into a "western equipment" + "western training" = big wins.  I mean that what was missing all along and by last May we finally had time to build up and it was supposed to drive the Russian hordes away.

Personally, I got pulled into "what in the sweet seven hells is keeping the RA together?"  After the abysmal failures of the Russian winter offensives, on top of the Fall 22 collapses, I am still not sure what is keeping that military in the field.  We even had a near coup in Jun.  I mean all signs pointed to a military system in failure.  The damn thing still looks like it is failing but somehow they are managing to keep it together.

I think this is much less the "Great Russian Bear" and its ability to suffer.  And more that warfare has shifted - a drum I beat upon from time to time.  Either way, western training and gear plus RA erosion were not enough to overcome whatever is going on with warfare in SE Ukraine from May-Nov 23.  We need to move on from this because it is done.

Next is the UA can continue to push over the winter.  Maybe Gen Cold can finally push the RA to a tipping point.  Or they accept what their CHOD said and go back on the defensive and hold on until Russia finishes breaking its skull on that rock.  Victory, being a slippery b#tch, is likely going to have to mean something other the complete recapture of every inch of pre-2014 Ukraine and a crushed Russia that somehow 1) does not fully disintegrate, yet 2) will never pose a threat to Ukraine - (talk about inflated expectations).

 If Ukrainian social will is going to fail because of this, well then once again we bet on the wrong freakin horse.  We have got 1000 shortfalls but partner nations failing is not one of them.  Damage control and political theatre-blaming will suck out the rest of the O2.  We will all dump trillions into NATO and take Sweden and Finland, refit, reload and get ready for the next crisis...should be along any minute.

 

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but now not only political circles criticize each other, but also ordinary citizens. I see a clear divide in our society that is growing literally every week

My problem now is trying to figure out if this is sincere - in complete absence of proof.  Or is it some sort of IO play.

[panzermartin]

42 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but now not only political circles criticize each other, but also ordinary citizens. I see a clear divide in our society that is growing literally every week

How is everyday life now in your country, are public services, health systems working properly are people struggling more now for the basics after 2 years of war and has this played a significant role in the fatigue? 

[Kraft]

3 rus special forces infiltrating into Sumy region spotted by a drone. 

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Next is the UA can continue to push over the winter.  Maybe Gen Cold can finally push the RA to a tipping point.  Or they accept what their CHOD said and go back on the defensive and hold on until Russia finishes breaking its skull on that rock.  Victory, being a slippery b#tch, is likely going to have to mean something other the complete recapture of every inch of pre-2014 Ukraine and a crushed Russia that somehow 1) does not fully disintegrate, yet 2) will never pose a threat to Ukraine - (talk about inflated expectations).

AFRF may suffer through winter quite substantisally, but the biggest problem for now seems Russian ability to keep industrial production going. They do have serious problems, like recent reports of Korean ammo being dangerous to crews, but overall they managed to pass the sanctions with crucial equipment production and replenish/upgrade it fast enough. It is a fact by this point: our half-baked sanctions (albeit quite heavy by western standards) failed to cause true ammo hunger or significant lack of sophisticated equipment on katsap side.

This is our biggest failing till now- not failed belief in superiority of western equipment, training or outdated command procedures of new brigades, but lack of understanding and political will to sanction Muscovites properly. It would quite likely fail anyway due to their significance on global stage and sheer size, but without it Kremlin can wage this war- in one form or another- for years.

[Zeleban]

15 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

How is everyday life now in your country, are public services, health systems working properly are people struggling more now for the basics after 2 years of war and has this played a significant role in the fatigue? 

The quality of public services did not have any impact on the morale of Ukrainians. Moreover, this year the situation with electricity supply is much better than last year. Last year at this time I was freezing in a cold apartment without electricity (light was provided once every 4 hours, and this is at best). There is nothing like it now. There is constant electricity, all services work uninterruptedly as in peacetime. 

Last year, even during difficult times, when there was no electricity and there were constant air raids due to missile attacks, there was no panic or depressive mood. Our invincible armed forces have just liberated Kherson, European countries have promised to send us a bunch of tanks, and so on. No one had any doubts about victory

Ukrainians in the rear are now living in what appears to be peacetime mode. If you find yourself in Kyiv now. you won't feel any difference from Berlin or Paris. Ordinary daily life of a peaceful metropolis. Only occasionally does Russia launch a single missile strike or UAV attack. Of course, in Kherson or Slavyansk the situation is completely different. There are daily artillery strikes and gliding bombs. 

 

Therefore, I think that the problem is the information security of the Ukrainian population. Russia is trying to undermine the morale of Ukrainians by all means available, and unfortunately it is succeeding.

[FancyCat]

On 10/29/2023 at 3:25 PM, FancyCat said:

8 days later, 20 more ships sail through the corridor. 

 

 

Definitely a good outcome for Ukraine, for a country with no navy, to carve out a corridor for 3rd party shipping against what majority opinion considers a powerful country one tier below superpower (public opinion) is a major achievement.

Quote

As of today, 153 ships carrying over 5.6 million metric tons of grain and other cargo have gone through Ukraine’s Black Sea humanitarian corridor, supporting farmers and other businesses in Ukraine and providing food and other products to the world.

 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is our biggest failing till now- not failed belief in superiority of western equipment, training or outdated command procedures of new brigades, but lack of understanding and political will to sanction Muscovites properly. It would quite likely fail anyway due to their significance on global stage and sheer size, but without it Kremlin can wage this war- in one form or another- for years.

Meh,  I mean "yes" but I think we also over-subscribe and misunderstand 1) what sanctions can accomplish and 2) how they actually work.

In a situation as complex as Russia first priority is to punish and erode, but no western nation is going to blindly do so while wrecking their own economies.  So they went deliberate and ratcheted.  There is also an escalation ladder here a play.  I mean if we basically drop a new Iron Curtain overnight damage to western economies is not small and it also leaves no room left for negotiations, coercion or deterrence.

We were never going to brick up Russia in this world.  FFS, China and India did not even blink...and they never were.  No western power is so invested in Ukraine that they are going to start trade wars with China and India, along with Russia.  So we pretty much did what we could and the damage will settle in over time.  Industrial capacity plays but the RA has been on a downward slide since the beginning of this thing.  Plus you can build all the tanks, crewing them with people that know what they are doing is something else entirely.  

What sanctions likely did do?

- Set conditions for future negotiation.

- Re-wire western economies away from Russia over time.

- Put pressure on an already fragile Russian economy, which will put us in position for the next war.

- Erode the RA in the backfield and expose it to vulnerable dependencies (with NK, FFS)

They were never going to be the magic Jiu-jitsu move to make Russia tap out in a year or two, anymore than Abrams and Bradleys were going to drive the RA from the field.  Choking out Russia was never in the cards.  Hurting them?  Sure.  Compressing over time. Absolutely.

My one true criticism of the West is incoherence, we do not really have a strategy here, so everyone is making up there own.  "Wait until X" - X running the gambit from strategic pressures to freakin tactical platforms.  None of it making for a coherent strategy.  We cannot even agree on end-states.  At this point there has been only 2 clear winners in this war: NATO and the western arms industry (maybe China and India, depending how one sees it).   

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

AFRF may suffer through winter quite substantisally, but the biggest problem for now seems Russian ability to keep industrial production going. They do have serious problems, like recent reports of Korean ammo being dangerous to crews, but overall they managed to pass the sanctions with crucial equipment production and replenish/upgrade it fast enough. It is a fact by this point: our half-baked sanctions (albeit quite heavy by western standards) failed to cause true ammo hunger or significant lack of sophisticated equipment on katsap side.

Adding to what The_Capt just wrote, there was no way at all that the world could stop Iran and North Korea from providing Russia with critically short military equipment.  Those two countries are already almost entirely cut off from the world, so what more can the world do without military intervention?

Sanctions are a blunt instrument, as they say.

This is not to say that the sanctions couldn't have been made stronger and more consistent.  The shocking news that industrial machining equipment was still being sold to Russia was angering.  Unfortunately, politicians have their own concerns and are very often willing to do the wrong thing for the right reasons (with "right" being reelection).  When the US went through post-Cold War base closures you never saw any local politician saying "yes, good idea to close the completely pointless and redundant base that is in my district.  It's obvious it has no real military purpose, even if it is a major economic benefit to local economies. So let's do what is best for the country and close it".

Steve

[acrashb]

Meanwhile, drones continue their steady move towards being one of two things on the battlefield: drones, and targets.

"Drone pilots have become increasingly valuable—and are targets for both sides"

Note that Russia is learning too, and in some ways outpacing the UA - especially in EW to disrupt the final phase of an attack run.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/10/29/trenches-and-tech-on-ukraines-southern-front
 

[dan/california]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

My one true criticism of the West is incoherence, we do not really have a strategy here, so everyone is making up there own. 

I don't think this is it, exactly. The strategy is to get Russia to realize it isn't a superpower anymore without tipping it into an infinitely worse replay of the disintegration of Yugoslavia. The problem is that there are two competing bad assumptions that underly this strategy.

The first bad assumption, some portion of the foreign policy blob is still convinced, despite all the evidence, that Russia can be brought to a rational analysis of the costs of continuing this war vs any possible gain. This faction is stuck in their convictions because they are on some level correct. On any rational basis Russia spending far, far more in Ukraine than it could ever hope to recoup. The notable problem is that the Russians simply don't seem to care. Indeed the have gotten at least ten thousand of of their own soldiers killed and wounded outside of Aviidka in the last few weeks in a crazed performative demonstration that they don't care about rational cost/benefit analysis  as most of the West understands it. I have been saying for months on end that rational autocrat would have declared victory and taken what he could get at the negotiating table at on May 1, 2022. Putin didn't do that, and has shown nothing but a determination to double down on an ever worse bet since.

The second bad assumption is that the Russian regime is weaker than it appears, and that we can win this thing without the real commitments of new resources. That just doesn't appear to be the case at this time. The eighteen months that have been dithered away by this attack of wishful thinking may be VERY costly. The problem with supplying Ukraine enough artillery ammunition is not money, resources, or expertise. It has been, and continues to be, at least in to many places, the unwillingness to make a medium term commitment of a few billion dollars that might look extravagant if the Russian army suddenly does come apart at the seems. I would simply point out that that would be a truly wonderful problem to have.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:23 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

I am not going to overreact to our good friend @Zeleban's anecdata at the moment, although I do sympathise with the pressure he and the Ukrainian nation is under while we sit in peace and comfort. Perhaps other Ukrainian threaders might chime in here?

That said, there are disturbing signs that the war is likely to become much more deadly for Ukrainian infantry in the field this winter, absent effective counters to the growing Russian drone threat. For example....

And please, can we take a pass on the kneejerk 'surebutthemobikshaveitfarworse' whataboutism. Until enough mobiks actually quit or mutiny over the 'far worse', it's cold comfort to the Ukrainian guys.

....Anyhow, it seems impossible that the Ukrainian nation can keep letting its already weary volunteer force continue doing the bleeding while able-bodied young men go about their peacetime business, or live as refugees abroad.

If that is indeed what is happening, which I'm not totally sure of tbh.

(more anecdata though: I recently I had a Linkedin friend trying to find a 30 year old Ukrainian engineer a job in Canada and I was tempted to ask why he wasn't at home serving his country?)