How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 11/17/2023 at 4:06 PM, The_Capt said:

There is truth to this.  Every older generation does shake their heads and wonder if it isn’t all falling apart.  I heard a remake of Billy Joel’s “We didn’t start the fire” with modern references and it rolled just fine.  

So everyone does it…but some turn out to be right.  I am sure some old guys were sitting in a bar back in 1177 BC or 476 AD having the same conversation, and they were absolutely correct their worlds were about to end.

So where does this leave us.  Well the reality is that humanity above about 125 people is always on the edge.  We keep skirting it and pretending that we are not on free fall pretty much all the time.  We invent distractions and control mechanisms but we all know civilization is about three meals deep.  

So why might this time be different?  Well that is the real question.  My guess is that we have seen a confluence of factors that all signal to a potential significant disruption in the species.  Out last one was really that time between 1914-1945, but a historian 1000 years in the future could very well see us as being in a major social singularity from 1914 to 2100.  We look back and see disruptions that last hundreds of years now but in our own lifetimes we can only see 50, maybe 100 years.  So one could make a coherent argument that we never recovered from 1914 and this has all been part of one big century long disruption.

But one has to admit the last 25 years have been nuts, even by historical standards.  First was introducing global information technology.  That ability is profoundly changing us in ways I am not even sure we have seen the end of.  The fact that the “old guys lamenting” now stretch across every time zone on the planet and can gather on a wargame forum is an example.  Then we had the end of the Cold War and a period of turbulence.  We all watched the wall fall and spent the “peace dividends”.  Smart politicians saw opportunity and went for a “new world order”, “thousand points of light” etc.  We thought that nation states were inviolate and that our main job was to get rich and make sure the bad states didn’t melt down too badly.  All the while chasing the “bad guys” across the planet, but they were all comfortably “non-state”.  9/11 shook the tree hard though.  Frankly I think the last superpower is still trying to figure that one out.  It started two foreign wars which turned into slow burn COIN but it was all low level.  Non-existential stuff.  

Then COVID happened.  Worst pandemic in a hundred years, the impact of that little dance are not anywhere near done being felt.  At some fundamental social levels that experience shook people everywhere.  We start coming out of that and then suddenly hard power, military power between states as a method to resolve dispute jumped back on the table.  We really should have seen it coming in ‘03, the seal was broken but that all had enough of a multi-lateral veneer that we could convince ourselves that it occurred within the global rules based order.  But then Ukraine happens and suddenly “policy and diplomacy by war” is back on the menu.  Worse a great power just did it unilaterally against another sovereign state.  In many ways Ukraine is worse than Taiwan.  Taiwan is recognized as a sovereign nation by only 13 other nations (powerhouses like Haiti).  If it wasn’t for US tub thumping and semi-conductors we could easily write that one off as “a domestic situation”.  Ukraine was a fully recognized sovereign nation in the UN…we are not supposed to invade those anymore.

So that shook things up.  Then Hamas/Israel.  Arguably intra-state but looking very brutal.  Taiwan is on the horizon etc.  So I do not know if this is the End of Days but we are definitely “not ok”.

Finally climate change.  This is a 2-3 times in an entire species timeline threat for the vast majority of life on this planet.  Why so few?  Because 99% of all species that ever existed have gone extinct from them.  So here we are facing that pressure to our front which of left untreated could bottleneck us.

So I cannot say if we are done to be honest but man a lot of lights on the old dashboard are blinking red.

This brings to mind one of the most memorable movie lines I ever heard in “Oh God Book 2,” John Denver says to God (George Burns) “But what if we screw-up and destroy the world?” To which God replies “Hey, I created you, and I created the world and gave it to you. If you screw it up, I start again and create something else!” 
 

I’m working from an old mind here, so if it isn’t verbatim, deal with it.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

This brings to mind one of the most memorable movie lines I ever heard in “Oh God Book 2,” John Denver says to God (George Burns) “But what if we screw-up and destroy the world?” To which God replies “Hey, I created you, and I created the world and gave it to you. If you screw it up, I start again and create something else!” 
 

I’m working from an old mind here, so if it isn’t verbatim, deal with it.

There is enormous wisdom in this line.  The reality is that we risk destroying ourselves.  The planet will recover and some other form of life will become dominant.  In the grand scheme we just are not that important.

[danfrodo]

grab back of stuff here, some hopium that is sorely needed.  Alleged RU collaborators/officials are fleeing Oleshky and allegedly supply line to kinburn spit has been interdicted.  Also another RU soldier appeals to Putin.  Who does he think put him there?  It's like Jan 6 clowns who thought Trump would pardon them/pay their legal bills.  Rubes.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/11/20/2207021/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Ukraine-s-offensive-across-the-Dnipro-has-Russia-panicking?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[Offshoot]

Ukraine is developing and testing a drone they claim is very resistant to electronic warfare - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3789361-ukraine-develops-ewresistant-drone.html

Quote

 

According to him, thanks to the GPS antenna, which is almost impossible to jam, the drone is very resistant to enemy EW. Due to the complete autonomy of the drone, the enemy cannot calculate its coordinates and the ground command, which makes it possible to protect the operators.

Fedorov noted that the Backfire is being tested at the front and is showing good results. Over the past two months, the Ukrainian military has carried out at least 50 successful missions.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3594318/biden-administration-announces-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

Quote

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $100 million, include:

Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
One High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and additional ammunition;
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
More than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
Cold weather gear; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

 

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is enormous wisdom in this line.  The reality is that we risk destroying ourselves.  The planet will recover and some other form of life will become dominant.  In the grand scheme we just are not that important.

Gaia theory.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3594318/biden-administration-announces-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

 

Odd that they specified "ONE" HIMARS.  In the past I've not seen a count associated with such systems.  Keep Ivan guessing

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

From ISW's Nov 20th report.  We haven't seen any tea leave readings about Kadyrov and Putin in quite a while, so here's one for you:

Quote

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to distinguish himself in the Russian information space, infringing on the generally accepted boundaries between Russian federal subject (region) heads and Russian President Vladimir Putin. During a video conference on the renewal of the Russian public transport fleet in the Russian regions, Kadyrov publicly invited Putin, who was also on the call, to visit Chechnya.[29] Kadyrov told Putin that Chechen elders had “scolded” Kadyrov because Putin has not visited Chechnya in a long time.[30] Putin did not directly respond to the invitation and instead thanked Kadyrov and the Chechen people for their hard work in restoring the republic. Kadyrov’s public invitation to Putin, who has notably not visited Chechnya since 2011, places Putin in a difficult position, as he either ignores the invitation and risks snubbing Kadyrov, or he accepts the invitation and risks looking as though he is amendable to Kadyrov’s pressure.[31] This implicit veiled challenge to Putin in a public forum is unusual and represents a clear attempt at informational posturing on the part of Kadyrov, who has recently tried to balance an apparent desire to curry favor with Putin while also appealing to his own Chechen constituency.[32]

Steve

[Ales Dvorak]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:06 PM, The_Capt said:

  I heard a remake of Billy Joel’s “We didn’t start the fire” with modern references and it rolled just fine.

From Billy Joel:"Take a song like 'We Didn't Start the Fire.' It's really not much of a song ... If you take the melody by itself, terrible. Like a dentist drill.

I agree.

This one is more melodic.

 

 

[zinz]

https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/111448923363031114

 

German Defense Minister Pistorius announced a new €1.3 billion aid package to Ukraine at a joint briefing with the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov.

 

4 IRIS-T AD systems (most likely full batteries)

20.000 155-mm shells

anti-tank mines

surveillance drones and detection systems

other weapons

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, zinz said:

https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/111448923363031114

 

German Defense Minister Pistorius announced a new €1.3 billion aid package to Ukraine at a joint briefing with the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov.

 

4 IRIS-T AD systems (most likely full batteries)

20.000 155-mm shells

anti-tank mines

surveillance drones and detection systems

other weapons

Enough shells for a week or so.

IRIS-T is good stuff though, and probably makes up a big chunk of the total sum. 1.3 billion is nothing to sneeze at, though.

Pistorius is a decent politician and probably the best defense secretary Germany had in decades. Doesn't talk that much, but what I have heard from the troop is positive. The problem is the governmental coalition is going through internal crunches, so his influence on policy is limited. 

The chancellor has ultimately the last word and Scholz and his closest circle of advisors are from "Camp Careful", some even from "Camp Our-misunderstood-socialist-friends-from-Russia". 

[Carolus]

Ukraine remembers how everything began 10 years ago.

When the diplomatic takeover of Ukraine did not work, Putin pulled out the guns.

The EU parliament and EU commission seem generally working on pulling Ukraine in quite diligently, but the EU council always has a veto, and the council is made up of all the heads of government of the EU members. This is where Hungary can throw wrenches into the gears. There are also, however, a lot of paperwork processes the council is actually not that involved in.

The bureaucracy of the EU is like an elephant. Its starts very slow and never gets fast, but once it set its sights on something, it is generally picking up almost unstoppable momentum.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Carolus

[cyrano01]

On 11/20/2023 at 3:37 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The upshot of the ISW report is that even though Russia created, funded, and supplied the DLPR forces since their inception, they remained largely independent of Russian command culture (allegiance).  Some 10 months after the official integration was announced Russia is STILL having difficulties with it.

The whole point of bringing this up is to support the argument I've been making that the DPR forces fighting in Avdiivka were not practically available for fighting outside of the immediate Donetsk territory.

This is an interesting situation for wargaming.  Sometimes there are constraints on doing what is militarily optimal.  In this case, the DLPR units are inherently territorial.  Mindset as well as logistics.  As much as Russia might want to transfer DLPR units to wherever they need them to be doesn't mean that they can.

 

Clearly they need a 'New Model Army'

[zinz]

https://nitter.net/bayraktar_1love/status/1726981722254811490

Not only Ukraine is doing military celebrations under enemy fire. 

[cesmonkey]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

Clearly they need a 'New Model Army'

 

 

Exactly! Rocks much harder than post-1980 Billy Joel (ach ptoo).

Also, for the 'nightmares come to life' files....

Poster is an Aerorozvidka guy recovering from wounds, messing with AI.  (And speaking of messing with AI - OT but hilarious) 

Edited November 21, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

From General Syrskyi, Ukraine's 'Old Blood N Guts'.

Just you keep attacking on all fronts there, Russia. Especially way down here...

If the Ukes cut highway M14, Russian forces in the entire Dnpr delta get starved for supplies; they need to come by boat or air (risky!)

2. Clever!

4. Note....

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Harmon Rabb]

More sniper related videos. Always interesting to see, as I remember it was posted here that next to artillery snipers are the leading cause of KIAs in this war.

[Carolus]

13152

At some point, something's got to give.

[Offshoot]

The use of DroneHunter drones in Ukraine, which fire nets to catch enemy drones. These are made by a US company but are being tested and refined in Ukraine. The article says they can even intercept Shahed-136 drones ( https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukrainians_buy_dronehunter_a_predator_uav_to_catch_shahed_136_zala_and_orlan_10-8620.html ).

 

[NamEndedAllen]

Trying to up their dismal ISR game? (Thus sneaking in my nod to Elvis with “game”, as reference to Eagles winning the Super Bowl rematch at KC last night)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/soviet-era-m-55-spy-plane-may-be-headed-to-war-in-ukraine

In one of its regular intelligence updates, the U.K. Ministry of Defense assesses that Russia is “likely considering bringing the Soviet-era M-55 Mystic-B high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service.” In fact, the M-55 never made it into operational military service with the Soviet Union or Russia, with only four examples being flown. The last of these to remain active was more recently used for civilian research of the stratosphere and the Earth’s surface, under the name Geofizika.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The use of DroneHunter drones in Ukraine, which fire nets to catch enemy drones. These are made by a US company but are being tested and refined in Ukraine. The article says they can even intercept Shahed-136 drones ( https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukrainians_buy_dronehunter_a_predator_uav_to_catch_shahed_136_zala_and_orlan_10-8620.html ).

 

I think this is a viable tool to combat "cruise missile" type drones as their trajectory is likely more predictable than a copter type drone.  But then again, if you can see where the Shahed is wouldn't it just be easier to shoot it down?  Seems Ukraine has had great success downing them in that way.

Steve

[Offshoot]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this is a viable tool to combat "cruise missile" type drones as their trajectory is likely more predictable than a copter type drone.  But then again, if you can see where the Shahed is wouldn't it just be easier to shoot it down?  Seems Ukraine has had great success downing them in that way.

It depends on what they have been using to bring most Shaheds down. We have seen videos of them being taken out with small arms or older anti-air kinetic weapons, but do these account for most of the downings? A re-usable drone that is at very little risk of being lost if it is being used to cover infrastructure a long way from the front lines could be one of the most cost-effective methods and free up systems that could be employed elsewhere.

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

A quick quote in ISW's Nov 21st report got me thinking about bad winter weather and drones.  The worse the weather, the better the drone has to be to work.  That means expensive, which means limited.  One would think this is good news for all the potential targets, a time when they can go back to doing 20th Century mech warfare without the risk of getting zapped by drones.  Except that the same bad weather grounding most of the drones in a given time does pretty much the same thing for heavy AFVs.  It's no fun for infantry either, but there's more flexibility.

Just a missive!

Steve