How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Perhaps a bad Google translation?

Mistake in original text

[Armorgunner]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Perhaps a bad Google translation?

I think Pantsir aka SA-22 Greyhound what was @Artkin meant?

Edited September 21, 2023 by Armorgunner

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, GAZ NZ said:

POLAND WILL NO LONGER ARM UKRAINE, etc  etc etc 

Source? 

[cesmonkey]

Could be worse:

Republicans in letter to White House vow to oppose further Ukraine aid
https://thehill.com/homenews/4215940-republicans-in-letter-to-white-house-vow-to-oppose-further-ukraine-aid/
 

Quote

The American people deserve to know what their money has gone to. How is the counteroffensive going? Are the Ukrainians any closer to victory than they were 6 months ago? What is our strategy, and what is the president's exit plan? What does the administration define as victory in Ukraine? What assistance has the United States provided Ukraine under Title 10? It would be an absurd abdication of congressional responsibility to grant this request without knowing the answers to these questions. For these reasons and certainly until we receive answers to the questions above and others forthcoming we oppose the additional expenditure for war in Ukraine included in your request.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Armorgunner said:

She did get their most modern available weapon tho! Which means that someone else, got some older things to work with  

This video is a bit misleading.  I've seen that dance before, with prop guns. It's a holdover from Soviet times, Support The Troops With Ballet-type of wierd thing. I believe it's roots go deeper and the "weapon" is usually a sword.

I watched a short very similar Polish dance, by a guy with a wooden sword, at our wedding in Przemyśl. 

[kimbosbread]

Interesting that one of the major American vassal states (KSA) just publically said they might get nukes (which they probably have already thanks to Pakistan). Hopefully that lights a fire under the *** of whoever signs the “Let’s provide ATACMS” form.

[Aragorn2002]

7 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I guess some of us hoped that the war will help Poland to wake up and become something else than Hungary-aligned force always doing the wrong thing and always trying their best to destroy EU from within. To shake off PiS and become something more. It is obvious now it was too good to be true.

When crisis comes, people don't change for the better, they become more of what the were before.

Hear, hear. The present regime of Poland is no reliable ally, but a threat for the European unity, same as that of Hungary. This regime only cares about it's own interests.

[Harmon Rabb]

Zelenskyy in Washington.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[niall78]

9 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hear, hear. The present regime of Poland is no reliable ally, but a threat for the European unity, same as that of Hungary. This regime only cares about it's own interests.

Probably an attempt to extort more money from the EU. That's the level these guys are at - base level grifters.

[Armorgunner]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

This video is a bit misleading.  I've seen that dance before, with prop guns. It's a holdover from Soviet times, Support The Troops With Ballet-type of wierd thing. I believe it's roots go deeper and the "weapon" is usually a sword.

I watched a short very similar Polish dance, by a guy with a wooden sword, at our wedding in Przemyśl. 

Me to, but the first time I saw them. The the girls had AK 74´s, and a year later they had AK-47´s. But now?? Going with PPSh-41 or whatever thy found in the dump  Next time they probably dance with Mosin-nagant. 

You know Its bad when the army search for guns (for them selfs) at the local stripclub 

[cesmonkey]

Interesting possibilities:

South Korean newspaper editorial:

https://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2023/09/06/2023090601594.html
 

Quote

If Putin tries to supply nuclear-powered submarines, reconnaissance satellites and cutting-edge fighter jets to North Korea, South Korea should consider supplying weapons directly to Ukraine.

And I bet South Korea's own sanctions against Russia would be ramped-up significantly.

[Centurian52]

21 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Unofficial twitter of Air Forces commented this "inside" with Russian prowerb "The fear has big eyes" (means someone, who fears exaggregates the danger)

Interesting. I have heard of this phenomenon many times before, but I've never heard a proverb for it before. Unfortunately proverbs don't tend to translate well from one language to the next ("Fear has big eyes" almost works in English, but it might need some workshopping).

[cesmonkey]

https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/2082186/nauseda-nesutarimai-tarp-ukrainos-ir-lenkijos-turetu-buti-isspresti-maksimaliai-greitai
Nausėda: disagreements between Ukraine and Poland should be resolved as quickly as possible
 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Hear, hear. The present regime of Poland is no reliable ally, but a threat for the European unity, same as that of Hungary. This regime only cares about it's own interests.

Traditionally, very englightening post about this short drama.

 

Meanwhile, in real world - one of Russian "peacekeepers" killed in Karabakh was deputy commander of submarines of Norther Fleet. Odd place for such a guy.

https://www.rferl.org/a/top-russia-navy-officer-killed-azerbaijan-nagorno-karabakh/32602846.html

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like today these strikes already began. Reportedly several substations were damaged, so were temporary power cutt off in Rivne, Vinnytsia oblast and Kyiv oblast. On eve GUR reported Russia conducted recon on UKR power resources, their conditions, repairs, defense etc.

All depends how much missiles Russians had time to produce and store. During about week this is third missile strike (but today there are no Shakheds) and most numerous - 43 missiles against about two dozens in previous two. But previous strikes weren't directed against power infrastructure. The missile, which caused fire in Kyiv was shot down not far from district thermal power plant.

Thanks. Unfortunatelly, their stocks does not seem to be near to ending.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2023/08/29/russia-hoards-missile-stocks-as-it-prepares-for-major-autumn-strike/

I am curious if the fact that UA now has its own small drones and missile can change the dynamic of Russia's own airstrikes on Ukrainian soil this winter; will it be so dramatic like last one? 2022/23 they attacked with total impunity according to (it seems) pre-planned schedule; now just gathering planes on airfields by muscovites seem to pose a danger. Even airfields quite deep into Mother Russia itself could theoretically be targeted by a team with some IKEA-made cartoon bomblet. That means longer route for missiles and subsequently more time to prepare the answer.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Zelenskyy in Washington.

That does not send encouraging signals.

[Haiduk]

Slovenian Valuk APC (local version of Pandur I) in 44th mech.brigade. 20 APCs were handed over.

 

[akd]

Interesting thermal view of 155mm DPICM in action:

 

[MSBoxer]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Could be worse:

Republicans in letter to White House vow to oppose further Ukraine aid
https://thehill.com/homenews/4215940-republicans-in-letter-to-white-house-vow-to-oppose-further-ukraine-aid/
 

 

After reading the article I note that the headline could be re-written as
"Approximately 10% of republicans in House and Senate write letter opposing further aid to Ukraine"

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Interesting thermal view of 155mm DPICM in action:

 

It's inetersting, Russian milbloggers claim how DPICM inflict big losses, especially wounded, but I already not a single time read opinions of UKR soldiers, that DPICM is too weak and have too large circle of covering, when the center of impact almost free from explosions. DPICM of course, nice thing against large formation in one place, but both sides try to avoid concentration of infantry 

One more video of weak effect of DPICM - one submunition hit the truck, but fire extinguished itself as truck drove away

 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

That does not send encouraging signals.

Speaking of the wonderful world of politics. I'm going to have to promote Jake Broe Again. He does a good job of explaining how important this week is for Ukraine on the political front. Not so much directed at anyone here because I know the regulars on this topic are much more politically astute than the average man on the street (or these days Twitter). More maybe lurkers who want some more information.

TL:DW: Jake predicts that the US Congress will approve the security assistance package.

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Lethaface]

On 9/20/2023 at 3:42 AM, The_Capt said:

My largest issue with his entire argument was reducing war to statistical deaths.  War is violent but on many levels and more often the psychological scars on an entire society can leave impacts far beyond body counts.  Vietnam had an enormous impact on the US collective psyche well out of proportion of deaths compared to WW2…and then we have Blackhawk Down.  

Pinker misses the relativity of war on a micro-social and then how that can spread to macro.  So his entire thesis - we are getting more peaceful is not only statistically weak when looking on a broad scale, it also misses the trees for the forest on a smaller scale.  There is an entire slice in the social and political sciences that bought into the idea that war was a disease we could be cured of a temporary phenomenon that sprung from upscaling civilization.  In reality mankind has been violent with each other from pretty much Day 1.  It is an impulse that is baked into us and will be very hard to remove, if ever.  In the end Hobbes and Rousseau continue to wrestle for our souls…when in reality I think they were both right and wrong.  We are creatures who have always lived on the margin. Suspended between order and chaos, thriving and self destruction.  

This war is no exception.  It is the most wasteful and useless war in a long time.  Russia was not running out of X.  Ukraine was not an imminent threat to Russian survival (at least not that we can figure).  This war hardly even counts as “policy by other means”, it is too personal and irrational to make that much sense.  We just lived through a Great Peace and now it looks like it is over.  Hard military power as a means of diplomacy is back on the table.  Irrational and personal causes of war are back (they never really went anywhere) and we are leaning back to Rule of the Gun on a global scale.  Or maybe that is just how it looks on a Tuesday.

While I haven't read Pinker, a limited list will always be a only a limited list. We humans often have desires to categorize stuff which isn't easily categorized into specifics. 
However fact is that unlike popular belief, 'the world' has become more pleasant for the average human to live his life; relatively you had more chance of hunger, disease, violence and or war in previous generations. At least pre-covid, I haven't really looked into the subject since. Also let's not forget that the bulk of humanity lives in SE Asia.
So yes we will probably always retain our violent nature (which isn't necessarily something 'wrong') and it is very plausible the trend will reverse at some time in the future (if it hasn't already), it is also good to realize that during the 20th century  and onwards life improved rather drastically for the average human being. 

 

[kimbosbread]

I’m shocked USN is going about things in what I consider the right way: Autonomous hilux of the seas. This just arrived in Japan: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-sends-drone-ships-to-western-pacific-in-first-deployment-near-china/ar-AA1h2F1A?ocid=BingHp01&cvid=3c5357d34abb41e9caa14a5bb4492a96&ei=8
 

I’m a big fan of containerized payloads straight up strapped to the back of boat like this. Hopefully in a shooting war it’ll last long enough to need to get more containers on there. Interesting that they felt more fuel is needed and hence the stretch.

[Teufel]

Keep in mind that Kevin McCarthy does not speak on behalf of the entire GOP. Sometimes one has to close the door on noisy neighbors and open the window to others.

https://twitter.com/GOP4Ukraine/status/1704860436548440527?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1704860436548440527|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[Teufel]

Claimed to be Russian friendly fire. Tos-1 firing at own infantry, ouch!

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1704900641737338948?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1704900641737338948|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=

[Teufel]

From Getty Region TG, copy paste;

New details of the attack on the command post of the Russian Black Sea Fleet near Sevastopol have emerged. It was a joint special operation of the Security Service of Ukraine, the Air Force and the Navy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Sources in the SBU reported that the military base was destroyed by missiles that hit the target precisely. The Russian generals designated this base as their backup command post so that they would not be caught behind the main deployment site.

The strike was carried out after the Security Service verified data that the commanders of the enemy fleet were indeed present in the military unit.  Currently, not only the enemy's manpower is affected, but also the expensive military systems that were located at this base.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Teufel