How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Teufel]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Remind me what not to buy, please.

 

Way off topic, Trabant and Zastava are no longer on offer but Lada is probably suitable substitute given Russian quality control.

[Battlefront.com]

Rybar's account of Ukraine's attacks today:

Quote

The Ukrainian Armed Forces once again attacked Crimea : Russian anti-aircraft gunners shot down drones near Cape Tarkhankut, Portovoy, Kirovsky and Feodosia . By evening, the attacks resumed with renewed vigor: several aircraft were intercepted at Cape Fiolent , as well as several Ukrainian boats with landing forces by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

In addition, the enemy attacked the rear regions of Russia with drones: air defense systems destroyed the UAVs over the Tula, Voronezh, Moscow and Oryol regions.

And this:

Quote

At night, Ukrainian formations again launched six drones in the direction of the Crimean Peninsula . The takeoff of the drones was recorded by units of the PMC "Bears" at around 21.00 from the north of the Zaporozhye / south of the Dnepropetrovsk regions . After midnight, the UAVs flew to Crimea, bypassing air defense detection areas in new Russian territories. The first three UAVs were shot down by crews of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Divisions near Portovoy and Cape Tarkhankut. Another one was destroyed on approach to the Kirovsky airfield (it had already become a target of the Ukrainian Armed Forces more than once), and two more were hit over Feodosia. Judging by the area where the debris fell, Ukrainian formations tried to strike the oil depot again.

One of the drones discovered near the power facility vaguely resembles drones produced by the Ukrjet company. Based on the visual outline, one can assume that this is something similar to the UJ-22 Airborne or UJ-31 Zlyva. Russian air defense units coped with the attack, but the raid itself was small in number and more like testing the air defense before a more massive attack.

The night attack turned out to be just a test of the peninsula's air defense. In the evening, air defense systems were activated in different parts of Crimea, and the Crimean Bridge was also blocked, which is highly likely due to the introduced missile threat regime due to the takeoff of Storm Shadow/SCALP Su-24M cruise missile carriers of the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian Aerospace Forces, in turn, destroyed several Ukrainian landing boats with cluster bombs.

And this:

Quote

Last night, Ukrainian drones again tried to attack the Russian rear regions: thanks to the successful work of the anti-aircraft gunners, significant damage and casualties were avoided. In the Moscow region, air defense crews intercepted three drones over the territories of the Domodedovo and Ramensky districts, as well as over the Istra urban district. Another Ukrainian drone fell on the territory of an oil depot in the city of Oryol : an open burning of a fuel tank occurred in the Zheleznodorozhny district. The emergency services personnel who arrived on the scene managed to quickly extinguish the fire.

In addition, the enemy UAV was suppressed by electronic warfare in the Novousmansky district of the Voronezh region . The device fell near a public transport stop in the area of the Voronezh state farm, located 20 km south of Voronezh . In addition, it became known that yesterday the Ukrainian Armed Forces again attacked the Shaikovka airfield in the Kaluga region , but to no avail. At the same time, the authorities of the Tula region reported the interception of the drone .

 

Haiduk, Rybar goes into detail about two strikes Russian forces did on an ammunition dump and a tank repair facility in Kharkiv.  Any information about that?

Steve

[MikeyD]

BBC News website has an overview of the current offensive. Its not as detailed as us but its better than the usual perfunctory media coverage. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66796358

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

So this means the dreams of a glorious MechWarrior future are deader than dead?

More like TerraNova?

There is always room for giant robots, no matter how absurd they would be as a warfighting platform.

 

[Fenris]

Hromadske report with vision, interviews of life in a UKR artillery unit.  UKR to ENG auto-translate works with this one.

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW put out a special report yesterday assessing Ukraine's strategy of keeping the Bakhmut front white hot instead of focusing only on the south.  ISW has voiced their opinions on this debate many times since the initial fight for Bakhmut started last year and they have always favored this approach, even when friendly casualties were quite high.  Obviously we had considerable discussion about this many times since then and, I think it is fair to say, most of us seem to support this conclusion:

Quote

Ukraine's continued counteroffensive actions in Bakhmut since June 2023 have fixed elements of two of Russia’s four VDV divisions and three of the VDV’s four separate brigades, dramatically reducing the VDV’s ability to redeploy more forces laterally to reinforce the southern front. The fact that the Russian command redeployed these VDV forces to hold Bakhmut shows that they would have been available to shift to Zaporizhia Oblast to defend against the main Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts there had Ukrainian operations not fixed them in the Bakhmut area.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine’s-operations-bakhmut-have-kept-russian-reserves-away-south

I know I've strongly supported this view and every day that goes by the sensibility of it is reinforced.  Ukraine is playing this smart and Russia is coming out weaker as a result.

Although I've also held the belief that Ukraine stands more to gain with its forces in Bakhmut than down in the south (mostly because it can do it without significant diluting of efforts in the south), I found ISW's take on the concept of relative benefits to Ukraine by staying to be quite insightful:

Quote

A Russian redeployment of all or most of these VDV elements to defend in southern Ukraine would likely have benefited Russia far more than the deployment of Ukrainian counter-offensive forces from Bakhmut to Zaporizhia. Russian forces in Zaporizhia lack the manpower necessary to defend the entirety of the field fortifications they have prepared.  The redeployment of elements of multiple VDV divisions and separate brigades would have allowed them to man those defenses in depth, thus forcing Ukrainian troops attempting to penetrate the lines to confront fresh defenders repeatedly.  Ukrainian forces would not have benefited as much by concentrating more of their own combat power on their breakthrough efforts. Lack of mine-clearing equipment and the challenges of conducting mine-clearing operations in the face of Russian fixed and rotary-wing attacks supporting extensive Russian artillery and anti-tank systems operating from heavily prepared field fortifications and tree lines were the main obstacles to a rapid Ukrainian penetration. Ukrainian difficulties in coordinating combined arms operations on which Ukrainian counter-offensive forces had been hastily trained compounded these obstacles.  More Ukrainian forces wrestling with such difficulties would not have improved Ukraine’s chances materially. The Russian defensive positions around Bakhmut were not initially heavily mined, moreover, and therefore likely did not draw many of Ukraine’s limited mine-clearing capabilities to that area at least initially.  More Ukrainian forces pushing south into Russia’s well-defended minebelts in Zaporizhia were thus very unlikely to make a decisive difference in the effectiveness of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the area whereas the unavailability of so much of Russia’s potential reserve forces has likely given Ukraine its chance to make significant gains in the south.

I've made many of the same points about the relative benefits of attacking around Bakhmut and the lack of opportunities for the same forces to contribute as significantly in the south.  However, I did not explicitly think about the mine clearing deficiencies of the Bakhmut forces.  They really had less to offer in getting through the belts than the forces already there.  All they would have done is clogged up the front and allowed Russia to reinforce with its best forces in a place that was already difficult enough as it was.

I hope the anonymous sources who questioned/criticized Ukraine's continued offensive engagement in Bakhmut reads this report.  Oh, and checks out the latest news like the effective destruction of a Russian brigade.  You know, little stuff like that

Steve

[Carolus]

Claimed to be the view from the inside of a Russian vehicle (MRAP or jeep type) while a FPV drone hits. Viewer's discretion.

Seems to illustrate the nature of the conflict as it has been discussed: Precision and long range means that something will explode not just near you, but right on top of your head, even if you believe you are completely safe.

(Granted, these guys in the video were seemingly retreating with wounded on board already at grande vitesse, so they might have expected something due to frontline proximity).

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW put out a special report yesterday assessing Ukraine's strategy of keeping the Bakhmut front white hot instead of focusing only on the south.  ISW has voiced their opinions on this debate many times since the initial fight for Bakhmut started last year and they have always favored this approach, even when friendly casualties were quite high.  Obviously we had considerable discussion about this many times since then and, I think it is fair to say, most of us seem to support this conclusion:

I know I've strongly supported this view and every day that goes by the sensibility of it is reinforced.  Ukraine is playing this smart and Russia is coming out weaker as a result.

Although I've also held the belief that Ukraine stands more to gain with its forces in Bakhmut than down in the south (mostly because it can do it without significant diluting of efforts in the south), I found ISW's take on the concept of relative benefits to Ukraine by staying to be quite insightful:

I've made many of the same points about the relative benefits of attacking around Bakhmut and the lack of opportunities for the same forces to contribute as significantly in the south.  However, I did not explicitly think about the mine clearing deficiencies of the Bakhmut forces.  They really had less to offer in getting through the belts than the forces already there.  All they would have done is clogged up the front and allowed Russia to reinforce with its best forces in a place that was already difficult enough as it was.

I hope the anonymous sources who questioned/criticized Ukraine's continued offensive engagement in Bakhmut reads this report.  Oh, and checks out the latest news like the effective destruction of a Russian brigade.  You know, little stuff like that

Steve

What is this?! I come here to express my uniformed opinions, not have people throwing facts around and referencing ISW. I'm out of here!

[Teufel]

Spread things like this! 31st Guards needs new commander and quickly!

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Claimed to be the view from the inside of a Russian vehicle (MRAP or jeep type) while a FPV drone hits. Viewer's discretion.

Seems to illustrate the nature of the conflict as it has been discussed: Precision and long range means that something will explode not just near you, but right on top of your head, even if you believe you are completely safe.

(Granted, these guys in the video were seemingly retreating with wounded on board already at grande vitesse, so they might have expected something due to frontline proximity).

I've posted this above as illustration that HEAT, penetrating inside of vehicle doesn't cause injuries and burning alive to all, who are inside. This is not MRAP, but usual UAZ van.

[Teufel]

Update from Verbove direction, good to see continued actions as indicators are activities are decreasing last few days vs previous 7 and 14 day average.

 

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Haiduk, Rybar goes into detail about two strikes Russian forces did on an ammunition dump and a tank repair facility in Kharkiv.  Any information about that?

This was in Saturday. 4 Iskander-K at the morning and S-300 close to midnight. Local administration just reported about fire on object in NE part of the city

Russians conducted two missile/Shakhed strikes for weekend. First was mostly directed against Odesa oblast. AD shot down 6 missiles of 10 and 6 of 6 Shakheds. Touch and hold a clip to pin it. Unpinned clips will be deleted after 1 hour.

This night Russians likely targeted Starokostiantyniv airfield again and probably some objects in Dnipro city. Shakeds were directed to Mykilaiv and Odesa oblasts. AD shot down 17 of 17 missiles and 18 of 24 Shakheds

[Carolus]

56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I've posted this above as illustration that HEAT, penetrating inside of vehicle doesn't cause injuries and burning alive to all, who are inside. This is not MRAP, but usual UAZ van.

Thank you for the clarification, I must have missed your post.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Statistic of issued videos of Russian FPV strikes from June 2022 to September 2023 from LostArmor.

UKR soldiers also say as Russian artillery is degrading, main threat now is becoming Russian FPV and Lancets.... Russian are still increasing production of FPV drones, they have state program of producing and operators training.... But how much we can produce, it's a question.

Many of volunteers afraid we can lost a racing with Russia in FPV-building. Russia still gets free all components not only for commercial-type drones, but also for Lancets, using US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland electronic, engines etc. 

Kamil Galeev has been beating the drums on the importance of cutting Russia off from its longtime electronics suppliers *and* advanced tooling OEMs in the West since early in the war:

When it comes to Russia/China, I feel that US analysts may:

1. Overestimate their capabilities. Especially at the high end

2. Underestimate their capacities. Especially at the low end

They can produce terrifying amounts of "dumb" stuff e.g. artillery shells, while struggling with sophisticated products

....Another thing to consider is that:

1. Subtractive (cutting) operations were absolutely revolutionised in recent decades

2. Pressing/forging - not so much

-> While dependency [on foreign suppliers] in (1) is nearly absolute, in (2) there is a far greater degree of self-sufficiency. Not that you should make artillery shells on mid-20th c equipment. But you can.

With missiles it is very different. It is mostly machining and machining depends upon the modern CNC machines -> chokepoint.

[Even if] there's a Chinese multi-axis machine in a Russian military plant, it will be almost certainly equipped with Fanuc/Siemens controller.... It is necessary to make Western machine tool producers stop support and maintenance of their machines in Russia.

...When envisioning an American decision maker, you can safely assume she or he is getting:

1) Lots of reports on [Russian sources of] microelectronics

2) Hardly anything on any other defence related industry, including machinery

Most [in DC] genuinely don't have any idea and think it's all about microchips... But quite a few in Brussels do

He goes into a lot of further detail on this if you read back into his feed. Also this, but no need to subscribe unless you want to support KG, the meat of it is in his feed:

https://kamilkazani.substack.com/p/who-produces-machine-tools

****

This thread also touches on the forum comments earlier re Adam Tooze's take on Russian economic conditions, based on macro data.

Is ZARA operating in Russia or not? is largely irrelevant

But if Trumpf could stop maintenance and support of their machines in the Russian military plants, that would be nice.

The most critical markets are often small -> you won’t even notice them in the aggregate figures

Edited September 18, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Teufel]

Here we go, changes at Ukrainian MoD have been made. Natural course of action in my view, new minster gets his own new roster. Not heard anything about corruption or related things for these individuals. Please correct if such info is available.

 

[Carolus]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Kamil Galeev has been beating the drums on the importance of cutting Russia off from its longtime electronics suppliers *and* advanced tooling OEMs in the West since early in the war:

When it comes to Russia/China, I feel that US analysts may:

1. Overestimate their capabilities. Especially at the high end

2. Underestimate their capacities. Especially at the low end

They can produce terrifying amounts of "dumb" stuff e.g. artillery shells, while struggling with sophisticated products

....Another thing to consider is that:

1. Subtractive (cutting) operations were absolutely revolutionised in recent decades

2. Pressing/forging - not so much

-> While dependency [on foreign suppliers] in (1) is nearly absolute, in (2) there is a far greater degree of self-sufficiency. Not that you should make artillery shells on mid-20th c equipment. But you can.

With missiles it is very different. It is mostly machining and machining depends upon the modern CNC machines -> chokepoint.

[Even if] there's a Chinese multi-axis machine in a Russian military plant, it will be almost certainly equipped with Fanuc/Siemens controller.... It is necessary to make Western machine tool producers stop support and maintenance of their machines in Russia.

...When envisioning an American decision maker, you can safely assume she or he is getting:

1) Lots of reports on [Russian sources of] microelectronics

2) Hardly anything on any other defence related industry, including machinery

Most [in DC] genuinely don't have any idea and think it's all about microchips... But quite a few in Brussels do

He goes into a lot of further detail on this if you read back into his feed. Also this, but no need to subscribe unless you want to support KG, the meat of it is in his feed:

https://kamilkazani.substack.com/p/who-produces-machine-tools

****

This thread also touches on the forum comments earlier re Adam Tooze's take on Russian economic conditions, based on macro data.

Is ZARA operating in Russia or not? is largely irrelevant

But if Trumpf could stop maintenance and support of their machines in the Russian military plants, that would be nice.

The most critical markets are often small -> you won’t even notice them in the aggregate figures

Stuff like that makes me think that the West is not actually taking this seriously.

This is not hard to find out if you are in the related industrial fields.

Sure, dual use goods etc.

But imagine the same excuse being used in WW2.

"This gyroscope that leads V2s to downtown London? Yeah, was made in Baltimore. Wait, would you really expect us to stop exporting to Hamburg? But you can make fine lab instruments with those! Now excuse me while I get this shipment of airplane nacelles to Japan."

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Carolus

[Mindestens]

Supposedly leaked photos of the submarine. This doesn't look good. Which is very good.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Interesting qualitative first from Korea:

 

 

[akd]

Looks like a job for Duct Tape:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Looks like a job for Duct Tape:

 

7 years of coaching rowing taught me that there's NO form of marine damage (usually novices running the boat into/dropping the boat on the dock) that can't be fixed up with duct tape (preferably black).

...My trademark was to assemble scraps into a little Grim Reaper, mounted above the bow ball of the most decrepit shell.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Here we go, changes at Ukrainian MoD have been made. Natural course of action in my view, new minster gets his own new roster. Not heard anything about corruption or related things for these individuals. Please correct if such info is available.

 

Getting rumours in mainstream here:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-fires-6-deputy-defence-ministers-as-heavy-fighting-continues-in-the-east-1.6565898

Pretty cold if true.  Corruption can become a cultural norm in governments and very hard to root out.

[Hapless]

Re: the sub images:

I love how someone went to all the trouble of pixelating the background.

Edited September 18, 2023 by Hapless

[Carolus]

56 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Re: the sub images:

I love how someone went to all the trouble of pixelating the background.

"This could be any Russian submarine, really."

[masc]

1 hour ago, Mindestens said:

Supposedly leaked photos of the submarine. This doesn't look good. Which is very good.

I love how the second image I'm pretty sure is a censored selfie. Like people really just can't resist taking a picture with very sensitive stuff. Sounds like more Russians need classified information briefs.

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Mindestens said:

Supposedly leaked photos of the submarine. This doesn't look good. Which is very good.

"Leaked"    Well, I am an expert with 38 years of submarine construction and testing, and as a subject matter expert I can say that that submarine is truly f-ed, FUBAR, SNAFU, scrap metal. 

Aren't you glad I'm here to provide you with my expert opinions?   

And kudos to Ukraine. Nice shot. 

Dave