How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Chibot Mk IX]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

It's gonna happen one day. I can't see KA-52s being close to the front, especially behaving so apparently nonchalantly, so this is a really good illustration of just how deep drones are getting.

Wake me up when it happens. I'd love to take credit for this idea.  

 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Heh, look who came! 

DefMon upoloaded Russian video how D-30 howitzers fire at UKR troops on outskirt of Verbove. But most inteersting thing in this who is doing this. 387th motor-rifle regiment. Mashovets wrote about them in January.

This is a unit of new-formed 44th airborne division. Division was established in late autumn of 2022 and includes two regiments - 387th and 111th. More interesting, despite division has a status "airborne", it regiments are both motor-rifle. They are usual mobiks and regiments at least on winter of 2023 weren't equipped by VDV "shtat". 387th regiment though got some young officers - graduates of officer military schools as well as some cadre troops from several air-assault and airborne regiments. 

The second interestimng thing - this division was appointed for Troops Grouping "Crimea" or for reserve of Troops Groupng "Dnepr". So Russians already forced to throw in the battle not only units from  Lyman direction, but from Crimea

PS. There is an opinion, this is the same battery of D-30, which was hit by UKR arty on other known video.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Teufel]

 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

On one occasion, Nestor’s commander asked if trainers would at least consider the presence of drones on the battlefield. The answer was a damning “No.”.
“You didn’t take your drones with you, and the only drone we have available is DJI Phantom 4, but we can’t even use it for bureaucratic reasons.” he recalls them saying. So they continued the training as is.

This a a case study in a peacetime military organization taking to long to ingest obvious lessons. The only reason this does not deserve a full scale rant is that every availabe drone is probably going to Ukraine. When this war ends ,one the best Ukrainian units needs to be invited to the biggest U.S./NATO training areas for a full up exercise. I suspect that would be an incerdible learning experience for everyone involved

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting issue. Wouldn't whirliwnd created by helicopter rotary wings be enough to push small drones away? On the other hand, probably angle under which drone strike would be crucial here.

But yup, just danger of not seeing small guy closing by undetected  is probably something helo pilots should start to consider nowadays.

Probably if you approach from below, But if you get above it then it is actually pulling the drone towards the helicopter. Any charge the will kill a bmp2 will relieve the helicopter of a rotor blade, and that isn't something helicopters survive.

Edit: the ideal helicopter hunter would not be a quad copter. You want something like a WarMate fixed wing drone. very soon something similar will have AI that IDs helicopters and ask "should I kill this immediately". 

Edited September 6, 2023 by dan/california

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

But I sense a lot of urgency in the reach out. I think they are on boarding a lot of people and need experienced people with solid credentials to manage the process.   

Anduril (Oculus guy’s drone etc. company)pings me weekly, but I imagine like any decent software engineer, the allure of jumping through security clearance hoops, bad software quality, not working remote and getting paid significantly less… is not that exciting.

This is kind of a problem in my view. The US has lots of very good software engineers, but it’s going to be difficult to lure them to even the newer companies in the defence space with the low salaries and office requirements (and for a decent fraction of us, drug testing). I suspect we’ll lose out to the Eastern Europeans in short order who are more “motivated” to put it lightly.

[Billy Ringo]

Saw the following earlier today on another site, regarding Prighozhin.   Obviously just rumor, but is an interesting consideration.

https://t.me/Separ13_13/18701

Today I was talking to a friend, he is an employee of the Wagner PMC, and he said to me an absolutely brilliant phrase. He was personally acquainted with the First*, and the First once told him: "If you do not see my severed head, then I am alive." Know.
 

[Teufel]

Posted footage of the drone that carries AT-mines with 7kg payload some days ago that “DefMon3” reported on. This is claimed to be that same system in action.

Russians left plenty of these buried and Ukrainians will now kindly return them, from above. One has to acknowledge the massive blast that these AT-mines cause in relation to RPG drones and grenades. Just waiting for videos of Russian counterattacks being ambushed by AT-mines falling down all around them.

Longer thread that offers perspectives on the shortcomings, inexperience and lack of situational awareness that 32nd has faced since deployed. Of course extrapolating to other NATO trained units and assuming they all suffer the same problems. As always, it’s good to see perspectives that call out BS before it becomes accepted as truth.

Not suggesting it’s all sunshine and lollipops but well balanced reply to the KI article referenced.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Teufel

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Heh, look who came! 

DefMon upoloaded Russian video how D-30 howitzers fire at UKR troops on outskirt of Verbove. But most inteersting thing in this who is doing this. 387th motor-rifle regiment. Mashovets wrote about them in January.

This is a unit of new-formed 44th airborne division. Division was established in late autumn of 2022 and includes two regiments - 387th and 111th. More interesting, despite division has a status "airborne", it regiments are both motor-rifle. They are usual mobiks and regiments at least on winter of 2023 weren't equipped by VDV "shtat". 387th regiment though got some young officers - graduates of officer military schools as well as some cadre troops from several air-assault and airborne regiments. 

The second interestimng thing - this division was appointed for Troops Grouping "Crimea" or for reserve of Troops Groupng "Dnepr". So Russians already forced to throw in the battle not only units from  Lyman direction, but from Crimea

PS. There is an opinion, this is the same battery of D-30, which was hit by UKR arty on other known video.

 

Well, that answers the question we had about where all the equipment would come from to fill out the VDV shtat.  The answer is... nowhere

There is a lot of very interesting tea leave readings to do with this information. 

1. by Fall of 2022 Russia had already concluded that it needed to expand its VDV forces, yet even with all that time all they've managed to do is raise a weak Mot Rifle Div. 
2. Russia either knew they didn't have what it took to make another VDV Division from the start, or they only figured this out after they had announced the new unit's formation.  Either way, they have a VDV Div in name only.
3. whatever the case may be, they decided to keep the VDV Div designation despite it not being a VDV Div.  Maybe they felt the propaganda value of another "elite" unit being raised was a good thing, or perhaps they just didn't want to admit they couldn't raise one and did a "bait and switch".
4. apparently the division was intended to be a strategic reserve to keep Crimea safe, yet now it is on the frontline.  More importantly, it is in the thick of the fighting in the most threatened sector.  One does not throw a half-assed reserve unit into the most important sector of the front if one has other options.

I do like where this appears to be headed!

Steve

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

I suspect we’ll lose out to the Eastern Europeans in short order who are more “motivated” to put it lightly.

Very good point and thanks for acknowledging there is a problem in the US. It might not be so much about money (we, as a couple have plenty of that) or motivation (my spouse is a flag waving hero) but the US is just getting older and those we are accepting into our fold are too young at the moment to enter the work force as engineers. These types of things are never talked about in discussions on policy; they are sweep under the rug. Journalism is America hardly exits. 

[Teufel]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good on you!  Which reminds me it's about time I sent some more money eastward.

Steve

Wanted to share this possibility as well, have no association with account nor can vouch for authenticity. Possibly to make contributions other than drones and related equipment.

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Wanted to share this possibility as well, have no association with account nor can vouch for authenticity. Possibly to make contributions other than drones and related equipment.

 

Yeah, this has been a fundraising topic as of late.  I've spread my money around, but most of it has gone to support services.  There's no shortage of verified wasy to help in all kinds of ways.

Steve

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I disagree.  Part of the unwritten rules of the Russian power system is that if you "retire" you're safe.  If Prig had agreed to hand over his business interests, which Wagner secured/protected, the MoD clan would have left him alone.  For the most part the clans are interested in getting what they want more than they are exacting personal revenge.  But he really would have to keep his nose out of things.

Steve

Alperovitch pointed out that Putin rose to power on partially ensuring the chaos of the post-Soviet era would end, and that the war is causing some of these barriers and boundaries to start cracking. 

Would explain why the Russian government in many ways seems focused on ensuring it stays as far as away from normal people as possible, to avoid the comparison of the 90s. 

Wasn't Prig a powerful and wealthy man before the war? Sure, the war gave him more, but wasn't Wagner well under way in prior to the invasion? Maybe encountering the fighting in Ukraine made him more....i dont have a word for it. Or the taste of having thousands of men to command went to his head. Certainly not the first time in history.

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I disagree.  Part of the unwritten rules of the Russian power system is that if you "retire" you're safe.  If Prig had agreed to hand over his business interests, which Wagner secured/protected, the MoD clan would have left him alone.  For the most part the clans are interested in getting what they want more than they are exacting personal revenge.  But he really would have to keep his nose out of things.

Steve

And I agree with you. Prig killed himself. It's beyond comprehension why the guy didn't "just fade away" and perhaps, maybe resurface at a more opportune time. I can't figure this entire episode out. I don't think anyone even in the CIA can. It's nuts. 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Alperovitch pointed out that Putin rose to power on partially ensuring the chaos of the post-Soviet era would end, and that the war is causing some of these barriers and boundaries to start cracking. 

Would explain why the Russian government in many ways seems focused on ensuring it stays as far as away from normal people as possible, to avoid the comparison of the 90s. 

Wasn't Prig a powerful and wealthy man before the war? Sure, the war gave him more, but wasn't Wagner well under way in prior to the invasion? Maybe encountering the fighting in Ukraine made him more....i dont have a word for it. Or the taste of having thousands of men to command went to his head. Certainly not the first time in history.

Yup, Prig had lots and lots of money prior to the war.  The high profile one was providing food to the MOD IIRC, but the reality is it was all the mineral mines in Africa that were generating lots of illicit money.

For sure he would need to watch his ass even if "retired".  But with billions in hand he could easily afford to keep a 100 or more Wagner guys on the payroll.  Some of them would be sleeper assassins in case the boss fell out a window and then down some stairs (in that order).  Prig could have made that known and I don't think anybody would want to call his bluff on that.  If there is one thing Wagner guys are good at, it's killing people.

Anyway, the counter point to anybody thinking that Prig had to try to play this game out until the end is wrong IMO.  He had the means to leave the game and keep his life in comfort.  He chose not to do so and that wasn't smart.

Steve

[acrashb]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I have no doubts that Prig wasn't a smart man by the usual definitions.  There's plenty of very rich business people that are dumb as a sack of hammers, yet they somehow managed to accumulate great wealth

The difference is between 'smart' and 'wise'.  And there's the issue of values - good or bad. poor values lead to a lack of wisdom, and poor outcomes when 'smart' is used to accumulate wealth.  Not that there's anything wrong with wealth, if honestly achieved.

You wrote earlier that Prig had enough money to retire in grand style.  But for people like him that's not the point - the point is power, and you don't get that in retirement.

[acrashb]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This sort of thing is going to inspire designers to come up with solutions to give drone operators more options. 

The Skydio 2+ commercial drone will already follow a person you tell it to.  It is a small step from there to "follow that helicopter / tank / AFV ... right up to contact".

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, acrashb said:

You wrote earlier that Prig had enough money to retire in grand style.  But for people like him that's not the point - the point is power, and you don't get that in retirement.

I think the man was lulled into a false sense of security. That's the the way clans and organized crime work. I would assume he was having Stolichnaya on the the rocks when the a/c went down in flames. He never knew what happened. 

[chuckdyke]

39 minutes ago, acrashb said:

The Skydio 2+ commercial drone will already follow a person you tell it to.  It is a small step from there to "follow that helicopter / tank / AFV ... right up to contact".

Yes the smallest drone is the size of the common sparrow. Wait and we have mosquito size or even smaller. 

[kevinkin]

26 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Yes the smallest drone is the size of the common sparrow. Wait and we have mosquito size or even smaller. 

I think drones will be defeated by some technology we don't know about yet. Not in my lifetime perhaps. Maybe there will have to be an international convention regarding their use. (Get it done quickly). For example, a mosquito sized UAV could be used to kill the POTUS, me, or my good friend next door. Without any thought they could make owing guns irrelevant. 

Edited September 6, 2023 by kevinkin

[kevinkin]

There is a young kid at the US Open (Tennis) that's quoted “Sometimes,” Shelton said, “you’ve got to shut off your brain, close your eyes, and just swing.”. Does that work all the time. No. Does that work some of the time. Yes. But it's such an American way of putting things. It's the same thinking that NASA had in the 60's. Anything is possible if you just try. 

[kimbosbread]

46 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I think drones will be defeated by some technology we don't know about yet. Not in my lifetime perhaps. Maybe there will have to be an international convention regarding their use. (Get it done quickly). For example, a mosquito sized UAV could be used to kill the POTUS, me, or my good friend next door. Without any thought they could make owing guns irrelevant. 

Drone is easier to build with common off the shelf parts than a gun- it’s some electric motors and batteries and a chip, and a some sensor to guide it, and maybe a radio. I think it would be instructive for politicians and military leaders to all attend a “build your own FPV drone out of $250 in parts” day, and then guide it via headset to hit a person sized mannequin 5km away.

On the other hand, a gun with any sort of range (ie not the Shinzo Abe Special) requires metal of sufficient strength for the barrel, not to mention bolt if semi automatic. A hobby machinist can still build this, but it’s more difficult than just Digikey/Mouser/Alibaba. Sure, in America guns and gun parts are plentiful and part and parcel of Freedom (TM), but everywhere else it’s a bit harder.

That said, some of our favorite Latin American kleptocrats have banned drones in their countries, but I somehow doubt that will matter when the next revolution comes. The sad thing to me is that the noble guerilla in the jungle with kalashnikov is much more romantic than some four-eyes like me with a pile of drones, pupusas and whatever beer is commonly available. Nobody is gonna have the latter on a tshirt!

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

That said,

Translate Shakespear in modern jargon. The Cellphone is mightier than the AR15.

[Fenris]

Something good to hear said and reported on as far as the US political front goes.

Quote

In the US Senate, they expect that the upper chamber will approve additional funding for Ukraine in the amount of $24 billion by the end of September, according to Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate.

 

[danfrodo]

Daily dos of daily kos confirmation bias:  I do wish things were going faster.  Go slow has some benefits, but it also gives RU time to counter -- laying more mines, moving troops, etc.  Could UKR go faster at cost of high initial casualties but get breakthrough?  I don't know.  A big push that failed would be really bad -- high casualties & a morale killer.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/9/6/2191834/-Ukraine-Update-How-Robotyne-became-the-center-of-the-counteroffensive

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

M26 for MLRS/HIMARS when?

I cannot see any reason not to, now that 155mm DPICM and depleted uranium APFSDS-T are already being sent... I guess it is just only a matter of time and critical need.

newest number I found was from 2006

https://www.hrw.org/news/2006/08/18/cluster-munition-questions-and-answers-m26-rocket#:~:text=The U.S. stockpiles 369%2C576 M26 rockets in its active inventory.

Edited September 7, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing