How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Apparently Russia has managed to recruit some small number of Cubans. I wonder if they will live long enough to freeze to death.

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Completely unrelated to the war other than the weaponization of refugees of course, but the pressure from this will drive many conflicts in this century.

I agree. It has in the past too. 

[dan/california]

The echoes of Prig's big weekend may not be over...

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/09/russia-ukraine-chernobyl-disaster/675083/

The commanders agreed. The task of managing diesel-fuel supply fell to one of the plant’s engineers, Valeriy Semenov, the de facto head of security at the occupied facility. According to Heyko’s calculations, Chornobyl required about 30 tons of fuel every day. For three nights, convoys of military fuel trucks carrying the required amount of diesel arrived at the station. Soon, the disgruntled Russian commanders showed up in Heyko’s office to tell him that his decommissioned nuclear plant had consumed half the fuel intended for their front line near Kyiv.

 

Russia's time in charge of Chornobyl was not cheap or pleasant.

[Battlefront.com]

12 hours ago, billbindc said:

I like and respect Alperovitch but I would be very wary of single reason explanations of this sort. For instance, it's fairly obvious that Prigozhin's ability to defend himself from the vengeance of Shoigu, etc (even if were pretending Putin wouldn't attempt it himself) was dependent on money and power that Wagner's continued, profitable existence provided. The struggle over those assets was a factor but only in the sense that they wanted to deprive Prigozhin of that resource so that he couldn't threaten them again.  To call it simply a business dispute is like calling a potential war involving Taiwan a fight over computer chips. Here, Alperovitch is missing the forest for the trees.

Yeah, there's more to it than just Prig looking out for his business interests.

For much of the war the MoD showed no interest in taking away Prig's businesses abroad.  It seems to me that the MoD's targeting of Prig's sources of wealth and power is the consequence of something else.  Something larger.  The long running thought was that Prig was looking to muscle in on the MoD's businesses, making the MoD's actions against Prig retaliatory in nature.  This seems highly plausible.

For whatever reason Putin didn't intercede to sort out the power struggle in a way that continued a check on the MoD's power while at the same time keeping Prig in his place.  Either that or Putin had come to the conclusion that Prig was no longer controllable.  Either way, the MoD made moves on Prig and Prig found Putin unwilling to intercede, so he took matters into his own hands.  He had counted on more support from other oligarchs, but found he had nearly none.  Which meant he either had to try and topple Putin or just give up while he had the upper hand.  He chose the latter.

It is still unclear to everybody how much Prig was egged on by other interests within Russia.  It seems unlikely his actions weren't in some way coordinated with others.  Prig even hinted at this being the case.  So was Prig used as a tool by smarter and more cautious powers?  I don't think we have an answer to that yet.

Alperovitch is correct about a few things, though.  First, that Prig's goal was never to topple Putin's regime.  Second, that money/influence/power is at the heart of how this played out (i.e. not political or nationalistic reasons).  Third, that Prig really screwed up when he decided to defy Putin a second time.

I don't understand people like Prig.  The man probably had billions socked away and a loyal security apparatus that could keep him safe even if radically downsized.  He certainly had what was needed to keep himself exceedingly comfortable for the rest of a natural life.  He had the smarts and skills to get himself into this position, but not enough to know how to stay there.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Apparently Russia has managed to recruit some small number of Cubans. I wonder if they will live long enough to freeze to death.

They were looking for Kuban Cossacks, but there was a mix-up and have recruited Cuban Cossacks instead.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, Fenris said:

Another long twitter thread detailing a pretty grim picture of life at the front for mobilised RU men.  

 

 

The more the merrier, but Russians seem to be resistant to things that might keep them alive. 

One thing we should all keep in mind is that when we see Russian soldiers complaining about officers is that I don't think many would recognize them as officers.  Russia's high levels of attrition have produced Battalion and bellow soldiers with rank, not officers even by Russia's low prewar concept.  I'm sure it's uneven, with some officers having gone through years of formal training to qualify for the rank they hold, but it's inconceivable that is the norm.  Losses are just too high and time to train too long for it to be anything other than that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

Seems like a place to drop part of my overtime bonus. I'll add it to my trusted list.

It's a promise I gave myself in Feb 22. Whatever I earn outside of my regular pay eaxh month will go to Ukraine. There are many good causes all over the world which deserve attention, but I have chosen this one because it has special significance to me. And I'll continue each month this goes on, doesn't matter how many years it takes. I am in the lucky position that this is financially possible and I know it's not for many others.

The wife is already joking "And how is your true love, Ukraine, today". 

Good on you!  Which reminds me it's about time I sent some more money eastward.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't understand people like Prig.  The man probably had billions socked away and a loyal security apparatus that could keep him safe even if radically downsized.  He certainly had what was needed to keep himself exceedingly comfortable for the rest of a natural life.  He had the smarts and skills to get himself into this position, but not enough to know how to stay there.

There's always a temptation to think that rich and powerful people must be really intelligent to reach that far.

But I think maybe the simplest explanation for a guy like Prig is that he was just not that smart to begin with.

He was not a shrewd political genius with special insight into Russian politics, but just a lucky psychopath of average intelligence who rose to power and wealth more or less by chance.

He was at the right place at the right time and was able to gain and combine connections with politicians, mercenaries and petty criminals, and he was ruthless enough to do anything to get what he wanted.

But then he got too big for his boots. Having your own private army probably affects your ego pretty badly.

Must be hard to keep a level self image when you're in your private jet, drinking champagne with one hand and ordering thousands of people to fight and die with the other.

He started to think he was the equal of Putin, a great person of history, and that somehow he was far above the level where he could simply be killed off.

But he wasn't.

The end.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[sburke]

54 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

No, advocating responsibility; a difficult thing for mere humans to adhere to that's for sure. 

hmm sounds familiar.

A Brief History on the Forced Sterilization of Indigenous Peoples in the US — The Indigenous Foundation

Jane Lawerence, a historian who focused on tracking the procedure performed on Indigenous women throughout the 60s and 70s, states, “Some of [the IHS doctors] did not believe that American Indian and other minority women had the intelligence to use other methods of birth control effectively and that there were already too many minority individuals causing problems in the nation.” These ideologies are what led to 25-50% of Indigenous women of childbearing age to be sterilized between 1970 and 1976. The government failed to provide these women with the necessary information to make an informed decision, they coerced Indigenous women to sign consent forms, and The Family Planning Services and Population Research Act of 1970 even subsidized IHS and Medicaid physicians for performing these sterilizations. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't understand people like Prig.  The man probably had billions socked away and a loyal security apparatus that could keep him safe even if radically downsized. 

I do not think Prigozhin considered it sufficiently safe without the political clout that the engagement in African affairs would have given him. Gierasimov and Shoigu would be after his head and with easy access to Putin's ear. A private person, even exceedingly wealthy one, plays in a completely different league, than a warlord. In 1200 yrs of the Roman Empire in the West, three men famously made a successful transition from warlordism to private life: Cincinnatus to plow, Sulla to drink and fornicate himself to death, and Diocletian to grow cabbage. The chances are not particularly high.

So he probably had no safe choice and was bound to chose between risky options.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Fascinating insights into NATO training for Ukraine; what worked and what didn't.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235

 

Good read.  This is consistent with other reports and is logical given the relatively short training times and NATO being "behind the times" on some very important aspects of this war.

To me, what I see in this is not enough time and perhaps prioritization problem of what to use that time for.  The soldier lists of a series of very real, smart things to train for.  But those things take time and it doesn't seem like there was enough to do everything.  NATO focused on the basics which, probably, is the best thing.  However, even before I got to the end I came to the same conclusion as the author... Ukraine should have recognized that is all it was and set aside some time and resources to prime the unit for things like drones, command procedures, and other things which clearly NATO isn't (yet) capable of providing instruction on.

One of the downsides of Ukraine's decision to create brand new brigades without withdrawing any from the frontline is that the inability to mix veterans in with the newly trained.  The Germans in WW2 showed us a really solid compare and contrast where new army units were successfully built with parts of existing units, but the Luftwaffe Field Division concept was an utter disaster.  The way Ukraine put together most of its new brigades used the latter instead of the former.

Obviously the positive side of Ukraine's approach was it didn't weaken its frontlines during the Russian winter offensive while the new forces were being built.  It probably was the right call overall, but hopefully this process won't need to be repeated again.  It is costly.

Steve

[Hapless]

It's gonna happen one day. I can't see KA-52s being close to the front, especially behaving so apparently nonchalantly, so this is a really good illustration of just how deep drones are getting.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Hapless

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

There's always a temptation to think that rich and powerful people must be really intelligent to reach that far.

But I think maybe the simplest explanation for a guy like Prig is that he was just not that smart to begin with.

He was not a shrewd political genius with special insight into Russian politics, but just a lucky psychopath of average intelligence who rose to power and wealth more or less by chance.

Yeah, my comment was more of my personal inability to grasp how stupid people in power can be, not that I'm surprised by it Oh, I have no doubts that Prig wasn't a smart man by the usual definitions.  There's plenty of very rich business people that are dumb as a sack of hammers, yet they somehow managed to accumulate great wealth.

The issue is that Prig spent decades navigating the Russian power system successfully.  He of all people should have understood the rules, and I am sure he did.  But he was arrogant and egotistical, two things which get in the way of correctly applying knowledge to reality.  Those are the sorts of qualities needed to succeed in a mafia system, but are also the same ones that tend to be their undoing.

15 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I do not think Prigozhin considered it sufficiently safe without the political clout that the engagement in African affairs would have given him.

I disagree.  Part of the unwritten rules of the Russian power system is that if you "retire" you're safe.  If Prig had agreed to hand over his business interests, which Wagner secured/protected, the MoD clan would have left him alone.  For the most part the clans are interested in getting what they want more than they are exacting personal revenge.  But he really would have to keep his nose out of things.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Hapless said:

It's gonna happen one day. I can't see KA-52s being close to the front, especially behaving so apparently nonchalantly, so this is a really good illustration of just how deep drones are getting.

Great video!  We've talked about this thing before, but only as a theory.  It seems the operator made a mistake and cut the drone in behind instead of trying to fly into its side when it had a chance.  Obviously coming in from behind ensures a much greater chance of a hit, but an FPV drone can't fly as fast and so once the helicopter decided to move (did it detect the drone?) then there was no chance of engagement.

This sort of thing is going to inspire designers to come up with solutions to give drone operators more options.  The days of helicopters sitting around doing whatever they want to do are numbered.

Steve

[Centurian52]

I wasn't going to ask this question on this thread, since I figure the main topic here is events that happened post Feb-2022, but the separate thread I created for it didn't get any responses.

Does anyone have any good sources for events in Ukraine from 2014-2021?

Edited September 6, 2023 by Centurian52

[holoween]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

NATO being "behind the times" on some very important aspects of this war.

Im not sure this is entirely accurate.

Especially the lack of awarenesss that drones are around seems weird to me given we havent had exercises with basically nonstop drone coverage since the war started.

So maybe this hasnt gone to everyone yet but ive certainly seen quite a shift in what we expect to face and need to focus on over the last 1.5 years.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

sounds familiar.

Did I use the word "forced"? No. Conflating a known problem with a inhuman solution is not fair.

[Centurian52]

12 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Did I use the word "forced"? No. Conflating a known problem with a inhuman solution is not fair.

To your credit, you did not say anything about forcing anyone to do anything. But, it definitely seemed like you were implying that the world would be a better place with fewer people of certain demographics (people from the 3rd world). That is a very unsettling implication.

[kevinkin]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The days of helicopters sitting around doing whatever they want to do are numbered.

Electronic warfare is a big topic in the US military, especially the Army these days. So big they reached to my spouse to come back to work! If you recall, she is an engineer with 35 years at Fort Monmouth. They closed down that shop and move the research to Aberdeen Proving Grounds in Maryland. We are not moving. But I sense a lot of urgency in the reach out. I think they are on boarding a lot of people and need experienced people with solid credentials to manage the process.   

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

To your credit, you did not say anything about forcing anyone to do anything. But, it definitely seemed like you were implying that the world would be a better place with fewer people of certain demographics (people from the 3rd world). That is a very unsettling implication.

If I implied that certain demographics should be culled off the planet (which didn't) I apologize. However, we need to think that there are situations into which babies are born into hunger and illness needlessly. Someone used the term "spray of refugees" as mode of warfare. Whatever I said was lot more gentle and thoughtful than that. 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3516840/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

Quote

The capabilities in this package, valued at up to $175 million, include:

Equipment to support Ukraine's air defense systems;
Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
81mm mortars systems and rounds; 
120mm depleted uranium tank ammunition for Abrams tanks; 
Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
Over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition; 
Tactical air navigation systems; 
Tactical secure communications systems and support equipment;
Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
Spare parts, maintenance, and other field equipment.

 

[Haiduk]

59 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I wasn't going to ask this question on this thread, since I figure the main topic here is events that happened post Feb-2022, but the separate thread I created for it didn't get any responses.

Does anyone have any good sources for events in Ukraine from 2014-2021?

I have huge massive of info (albeit very fragmented), but I havn't enough time to translate it. In own time sevaral years ago I've been writing small artilcles for VK branch of MIL.IN.UA resource about this. I had a time to write from Crimea 2014 to beginning of August 2014. If you interest some special I will try to answer. Write me PM

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great video!  We've talked about this thing before, but only as a theory.  It seems the operator made a mistake and cut the drone in behind instead of trying to fly into its side when it had a chance.  Obviously coming in from behind ensures a much greater chance of a hit, but an FPV drone can't fly as fast and so once the helicopter decided to move (did it detect the drone?) then there was no chance of engagement.

This sort of thing is going to inspire designers to come up with solutions to give drone operators more options.  The days of helicopters sitting around doing whatever they want to do are numbered.

Steve

Interesting issue. Wouldn't whirliwnd created by helicopter rotary wings be enough to push small drones away? On the other hand, probably angle under which drone strike would be crucial here.

But yup, just danger of not seeing small guy closing by undetected  is probably something helo pilots should start to consider nowadays.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

It seems the operator made a mistake

I think this was occasional encounter and drone operator hadn't task to hit Ka-52. He just spot it and probably thought: "Damn! What a fortune!". But, alas, the speed even of FPV race drone, using for strike purposes is not enough to chase a helicopter, so interception have to be trained.

Drone interception is also hard, because drone operators havn't information from radars. This is not their level and nor their tasks. I have a suspicion, even our MANPADs and SHORADs havn't proper radar info and operate on own lucky.  

Edited September 6, 2023 by Haiduk