How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Rokko]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, this is Ukrainin POWs from 77th air-assault brigade. No details how it happened. Some unverified talks I've read, one group advanced too far along narrow forest between Klishchiivka and Bakhmut and were surprisingly counter-attacked there and probably encircled. Some could broke throough, but part was captured. Also no info when it happened. 

UKR TG "Sniper speaks" also told Russians could push back our positions on 500 m on nothern flank of Bakhmut, but didn't clarify were exsctly. Maybe near Berkhivka, when these "swing" is usual

Wow that sucks,

I don't think I've ever seen a group of Russian POWs this large before, which made this video stand out as an (hope inducing) outlier. Although it's obviously better than if they had all been killed, even if it means they are going to be subjected to months long starvation diet in the best case.

What I am wondering now, is this a platoon that decided to quickly surrender after a sharp and one-sided engagement without too many casualties or the remnants of a badly decimated company?

[Tux]

20 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

For everyone else, I've already given my devil's advocate position, which I think Western Europe would have taken in a heartbeat earlier in this conflict, but now perhaps not: Russia, in exchange for retreating to its borders takes all refugees + asylum seekers from Europe.

As a complete left-field hypothetical I don't think it needs to take up much of the thread's time but, since this is the second time you've brought it up:  No.  Never.  A world in which Putin's Russia accepts this idea, Western European nations accept this idea and in which this idea is even close to workable (not to mention ethical, moral or even legal) just doesn't exist.

[Haiduk]

39 minutes ago, Rokko said:

What I am wondering now, is this a platoon that decided to quickly surrender after a sharp and one-sided engagement without too many casualties or the remnants of a badly decimated company?

Company is too much for Bakhmut-sacle operations. Platoon more likely.

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Company is too much for Bakhmut-sacle operations. Platoon more likely.

Mistakes happen in a war, they happen even more often in a war being fought by people who were civilians a very few months ago. There are any number of similar  incidents in the U.S. march from Normandy to Berlin. 

For instance it very nearly happened in this ugly little fight

https://www.thenmusa.org/articles/the-442d-regimental-combat-team/

The only reason it didn't was that the Nisei were willing to do things pretty much everybody else thought were suicidal. 

[kevinkin]

52 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

@kevinkin I want to know specifically what the Devil's Advocate negotiating position you are talking about is.

There is no firm position. It is wise to keep all options open. A flexible way to win rather than a rigid costly attritional way. Diplomacy is a card in the deck, however it's never discussed. Diplomacy is not a indication of weakness. It is very often a sign of strength. Someone around here opinioned that Ukraine is better off now than before 2/22/22 because we finely titrated our support to Ukraine. Tell that to a mom. 

Was this war inevitable or avoidable? I will say it was avoidable given America's position. US soldiers have not fired a single bullet, but our tax dollars have. Unfortunately the Ivy leaguers in DC did not pay attention and stare down Putin because they just don't know how the world works. Or maybe they are using Ukraine as testing ground for our industry. Either way, it's sad. I advocate staring Putin, the mother ****er, down before the US has to enforce a no fly zone or put troops in theater. The Chairman of the Joints Chief of Staff forwarded that the US could not break through the entrenchments with the level of combat support the the west has provide Ukraine. This madness is not a video game.  Ever heard the phrase guys "it's my way or the highway"? A nuanced approach to war at this scale kills more people, destroys infrastructure, and will leave wounds for generations. If we don't stare down nuclear blackmail the planet is toast anyway. Get it done USA.   

[sburke]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Mistakes happen in a war, they happen even more often in a war being fought by people who were civilians a very few months ago. There are any number of similar  incidents in the U.S. march from Normandy to Berlin. 

For instance it very nearly happened in this ugly little fight

https://www.thenmusa.org/articles/the-442d-regimental-combat-team/

The only reason it didn't was that the Nisei were willing to do things pretty much everybody else thought were suicidal. 

When I was a bike courier in DC early 80s, one of my coworkers was Daniel Inouye's son.  Really nice guy - the son I mean, never met his dad.  Marginal Man - Wikipedia

corrected.. early 80s wish it had been early 90s.. I'd be 10 years younger....

Edited September 5, 2023 by sburke

[Fenris]

The second post below is a longer version of the first clip whcih we saw yesterday of retreating RU troops being shelled (including cluster rounds) and hit with an FPV drone.  Pretty grim and gives a better picture of the number of men on the move.

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

Because it looks to me awfully like, somehow, Russia are negotiating with their own defeat even less now than they were earlier in the war.

I don’t think this is because Russia “won’t” negotiate with their own defeat, it is because they do not know how to.  Or at least the current power regime for Putin and the political power architecture he put in place for over 20 years, this is an unsolvable riddle.  They painted themselves into a box they cannot escape.  To admit defeat or even a negotiated end state is to declare that 1) Russia has no manifest destiny in its Near Abroad, 2) it was driven to a negotiation table by a minor rump state it considered an ersatz province, and 3) Russia is not strong, it is in fact incredibly weak.  For Putin and cronies none of this computes and they will never accept it.  As you note, even if they are pushed all the way back to the old border, they cannot quit if Putin is still in power.  So What?  They only way out is looking more and more like a regime change scenario.  RA military collapse in the field may do this but there are other mechanisms.  Problem will be, which ones do not see the entire thing fall completely apart and spark possible worse?

[Fenris]

Couple of encouraging tweet threads.  Second one has clips to back up their claims for geo location of RU shelling their own trench line.

Quote

The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline. Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne

 

Quote

Based on GeoLocated footage (by 
@EjShahid
 and 
@moklasen
  

Ukrainians are expanding their breach with more infantry and/or recon and they have highly likely reached the trenchsystem protecting the Surovikin line

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Fenris

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

That's fine. Got it.

It is apparent that you do not.  I'm going to respond to your post, but this is not a discussion and trying to make it into one will get you banned for good.

Not that I have any obligation to re litigate my decisions as Moderator, but as requested here is the post you made after I just warned you about your behavior:

On 8/19/2023 at 12:49 AM, kevinkin said:

I did not attack you. Why so defensive? You are a tactical thinker, I think strategically. That's why you love videos of bodies being blow up and I don't. 

Either your contempt for me includes thinking I'm an idiot or you really don't know how bad your posts are.  Either way, I don't care.

6 hours ago, kevinkin said:

BTW, associating me with a pro-Russian fascist is a typical indirect insult and is more of an attack on me than whatever the Hell I said two weeks ago. 

I was simply pointing out that I have only had to ban two people in the past few months.  I don't do it often and I don't do it without reason.  That is not an insult, it is simply a statement of fact.

I have given you a last warning.  What happens next is up to you.

Steve

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

but this is not a discussion

I get it.  

[kevinkin]

Pretty interesting view on things:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/09/04/where-is-the-money-military-graft-becomes-a-headache-for-ukraine/

This is the result of debasing currency and giving it to a poor nation fighting your fight.

It is what it is. But, what is the long term solution? Burning out the Ukrainian populace it not one. Hoping for a Russian collapse is not either. That's why I am bringing up diplomacy. That's how real powers stay real powers i.e. not by printing money and sending it off without a strategy.    

Edited September 4, 2023 by kevinkin

[chuckdyke]

42 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

That's why I am bringing up diplomacy.

Diplomacy is the prerogative of the Ukraine. If necessary, they will resort to an IRA or even a fundamentalist type of operation. Locals always have the last word. To discuss diplomacy on this forum is a waste of time. Select which side you are on. 19th century style of imperialism is not European diplomacy nowadays. Up to the US population who they support I don't vote there.

Edited September 5, 2023 by chuckdyke

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

To discuss diplomacy on this forum is a waste of time.

Yep. Maneuver warfare is never discussed. How to stop the death on US terms is never talked about. There was this band in the 80's called Simple Minds. "Don't You (Forget About Me)". I fear the those minds are in DC and we are throwing Ukraine under the bus. Think about it. Please. This war could end fast. It just requires US back bone, courage, and a week of B-52s. Who is staring down Putin given our love of Ukraine? Diplomacy will come up over the winter. Mark my word. 

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

US back bone, courage, and a week of B-52s.

Like B29's over Korea doing MacArthur's bidding. The man was sacked for very good reasons. The B52's will trigger WW 3 Imo. B52s were yesterday's tools. You don't negotiate with the likes of putin the last person who did this was Prigozhin. Arm the Ukraine is diplomacy at present you just don't agree with it. UN resolutions which Russia has Vetoed was diplomacy and you don't advocate diplomacy but appeasement. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by chuckdyke

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Yep. Maneuver warfare is never discussed. How to stop the death on US terms is never talked about. There was this band in the 80's called Simple Minds. "Don't You (Forget About Me)". I fear the those minds are in DC and we are throwing Ukraine under the bus. Think about it. Please. This war could end fast. It just requires US back bone, courage, and a week of B-52s. Who is staring down Putin given our love of Ukraine? Diplomacy will come up over the winter. Mark my word. 

sooner or later there will be negotiations.  I think everyone knows that.  Even knuckleheads like me know it.  

But for now there's nothing for UKR to negotiate.  The barest minimum start for talking would be for RU to return to Feb 22 'borders'.  And even that most obvious requirement is not on the table.  Right now it would be like Hitler asking to negotiate the status of France in late July 1944, just before Cobra.  

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Like B29's over Korea doing MacArthur's bidding. The man was sacked for very good reasons. The B52's will trigger WW 3 Imo. B52s were yesterday's tools. You don't negotiate with the likes of putin the last person who did this was Prigozhin. Arm the Ukraine is diplomacy at present you just don't agree with it. UN resolutions which Russia has Vetoed was diplomacy and you don't advocate diplomacy but appeasement. 

I don't want to derail the thread, but it's hard to find an American who's done as lasting damage to the world as MacArthur by allowing his egomania and zealotry blow a complete victory.  Like a football match team being up 10 goals to zero and then having to forfeit into a draw for some reason.

Edited September 5, 2023 by danfrodo

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

When I was a bike courier in DC early 80s, one of my coworkers was Daniel Inouye's son.  Really nice guy - the son I mean, never met his dad.  Marginal Man - Wikipedia

corrected.. early 80s wish it had been early 90s.. I'd be 10 years younger....

I know him too. Great guy.

[LongLeftFlank]

The Russians (probably even their command, who could know better if they had any interest in doing so) and their apologists in the West are also proceeding from an rather different set of 'facts', or assumptions than the people on this board:

In their looking glass version, it is Ukraine that is rapidly running out of capable troops, particularly infantry.

- ALLEGEDLY, UA leadership (officers and NCOs) was more or less wiped out over 2022, especially in the Bahmut 'grinder'. The UA are putting unwilling, ill-trained and ill-led noobs into the field, particularly non-Ukrainians.

- ALLEGEDLY, on some fronts these troops are being forcibly kept in the field by nAzov  fanatics, Mansoor Chechens and skinhead mercenaries (primarily Poles).

- ALLEGEDLY, several million bourgeois Ukrainians have fled overseas or bribed their way out of serving. 'NATO's proxy war' is extremely unpopular among Ukrainians under 30 across all demographics.

- ALLEGEDLY the Ukrainian domestic economy, which is run by (largely Jewish) oligarchs living outside the country, has never fully mobilised for war except inasmuch as it can profiteer off it.

- In any case, 'so-called Ukraine's' economy, infrastructure and society can never function separately from Greater Russia without being entirely rebuilt, ground up, and that's allegedly impossible under wartime conditions. The entire project is a scam, or at best a NATO-fed delusion dreamed up in London by, well (((((the usual suspects)))).

- ALLEGEDLY, since so-called Ukraine cannot sustain it, since 2008 UA is basically a NATO construct and puppet force, entirely dependent on NATO/NGO stocks and direction. These are now rapidly running down owing to poor discipline, wastage and pilferage.

- ALLEGEDLY, Western military organisation, experience and doctrine is ill-suited to fighting against the Russian army, and the hohols only do ok when they ignore it and fight in the Cossack (Russian) way. Giving them first line Western kit is actually an act of desperation; there is little else to send now.

- ALLEGEDLY, any quality edge the hohols might have enjoyed in 2022 in terms of drones, night vision, missiles, ISR, etc., is now largely closed and Ukrainian troops are now the ones getting trench bombed. China, being the world's workshop and wanting NATO to lose, is quietly providing huge quantities of pretty much anything Russia can't make itself.

****

Again, all these points are 95% false, so don't even bother to refute them or pretend I am advocating them. 

But negatives are by their nature (and by design) quite difficult to disprove, and there's enough 'supportive' anecdotes out there for people like McGregor and Big Serge to wave about, along with a bunch of handwavy 'you know nothing, bourgeois Western fools!' historical pseudo-analogues (Kursk, etc.).

....Since holding a different view of the world is impossible -- as others pointed out above -- the Russians choose to believe the above 'facts'.

And while folks like Rybar or Girkhin may admit Red Army performance in the SMO has also been weak, under their chosen set of facts, it's now merely a matter of bringing their 3x weight advantage fully to bear, and holding on before NATO's puppets, wait for it....

Collapse.

Like I said, don't bother to beat up this straw man. The point is, they can 'find' their own facts if they choose to, and have done so.

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Like I said, don't bother to beat up this straw man. The point is, they can 'find' their own facts if they choose to, and have done so.

Well I for one am tired of London getting all the credit/blame!

Edited September 5, 2023 by sburke

[FancyCat]

Of course there's negotiations ongoing but we aren't going to hear about it for years, general public don't get that info. Public facing info, is the only tidbits we get to talk about. Something to keep in mind, public statements by Russian diplomatic and military figures has been for months focused on a set of demands that make it impossible for public negotiations to begin for Ukraine. If I'm recalling correctly, the ceding of the 4 partially controlled regions is one of the main demands by Russia. Explain how negotiations, which require both sides to agree to come to the table, before even talking at said table, can occur with such public contrasts from both parties on their demands and goals.

Which leads in to what LongLeftFrank noted and what I was referenced in the BBC Russia article I linked, is the noted degradation of the Russian diplomatic service prior and during the war.

Being instead of low level diplomatic contacts being able to parse out areas of concessions and agreement between Ukraine and Russia, you have Russian diplomats more concerned for their jobs, preening to be the top anti-Western spokesman. Indicating a Russian focus inward, or more precisely, like former President Medvedev acting like a drunken buffoon, a focus on satisfying Putin, who's seems keen on LLF's version of events.

Oh sure Ukraine could indicate it wants talks and drop their demands down from withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukraine, except we run back into the current Russian demand for talks to begin, Ukraine must acknowledge the loss of Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, and Donetsk. So for negotiations to begin, both sides need to save face, or have realities they are willing to accept, neither is true at this point.

Which is why NATO supporting Ukraine is a perfectly fine negotiating tactic. (And is indeed a tactic) Because it is in direct contrast to Russia's current negotiating tactic, exhausting Ukraine and the West to force them to cede territory uncontrolled by Russia to Russia.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Russians (probably even their command, who could know better if they had any interest in doing so) and their apologists in the West are also proceeding from an rather different set of 'facts', or assumptions than the people on this board:

In their looking glass version, it is Ukraine that is rapidly running out of capable troops, particularly infantry.

- ALLEGEDLY, UA leadership (officers and NCOs) was more or less wiped out over 2022, especially in the Bahmut 'grinder'. The UA are putting unwilling, ill-trained and ill-led noobs into the field, particularly non-Ukrainians.

- ALLEGEDLY, on some fronts these troops are being forcibly kept in the field by nAzov  fanatics, Mansoor Chechens and skinhead mercenaries (primarily Poles).

- ALLEGEDLY, several million bourgeois Ukrainians have fled overseas or bribed their way out of serving. 'NATO's proxy war' is extremely unpopular among Ukrainians under 30 across all demographics.

- ALLEGEDLY the Ukrainian domestic economy, which is run by (largely Jewish) oligarchs living outside the country, has never fully mobilised for war except inasmuch as it can profiteer off it.

- In any case, 'so-called Ukraine's' economy, infrastructure and society can never function separately from Greater Russia without being entirely rebuilt, ground up, and that's allegedly impossible under wartime conditions. The entire project is a scam, or at best a NATO-fed delusion dreamed up in London by, well (((((the usual suspects)))).

- ALLEGEDLY, since so-called Ukraine cannot sustain it, since 2008 UA is basically a NATO construct and puppet force, entirely dependent on NATO/NGO stocks and direction. These are now rapidly running down owing to poor discipline, wastage and pilferage.

- ALLEGEDLY, Western military organisation, experience and doctrine is ill-suited to fighting against the Russian army, and the hohols only do ok when they ignore it and fight in the Cossack (Russian) way. Giving them first line Western kit is actually an act of desperation; there is little else to send now.

- ALLEGEDLY, any quality edge the hohols might have enjoyed in 2022 in terms of drones, night vision, missiles, ISR, etc., is now largely closed and Ukrainian troops are now the ones getting trench bombed. China, being the world's workshop and wanting NATO to lose, is quietly providing huge quantities of pretty much anything Russia can't make itself.

****

Again, all these points are 95% false, so don't even bother to refute them or pretend I am advocating them. 

But negatives are by their nature (and by design) quite difficult to disprove, and there's enough 'supportive' anecdotes out there for people like McGregor and Big Serge to wave about, along with a bunch of handwavy 'you know nothing, bourgeois Western fools!' historical pseudo-analogues (Kursk, etc.).

....Since holding a different view of the world is impossible -- as others pointed out above -- the Russians choose to believe the above 'facts'.

And while folks like Rybar or Girkhin may admit Red Army performance in the SMO has also been weak, under their chosen set of facts, it's now merely a matter of bringing their 3x weight advantage fully to bear, and holding on before NATO's puppets, wait for it....

Collapse.

Like I said, don't bother to beat up this straw man. The point is, they can 'find' their own facts if they choose to, and have done so.

The best sentence Upton Sinclair ever wrote was " It is impossible to get a man to understand some thing when his salary depends on not understanding it". The Russian addendum would include something about keeping your freedom and all of your body parts. The question is will this willful misunderstanding and mis-knowing survive a collapse of the southern front.

The_Capt has stated several times that war is a collision of certainties. What remains to be seen is what will the Russian military do when it really is forced to understand that its certainties are wrong and suicidal.

[Fenris]

Bummer if correct.  I hope/trust the crew is ok.  Caption on this tweet is

Quote

Ukraine has lost its first Challenger 2

 

Edited September 5, 2023 by Fenris

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-4-2023

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. 

 

It is a read the whole thing kind of day.

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Russians (probably even their command, who could know better if they had any interest in doing so) and their apologists in the West are also proceeding from an rather different set of 'facts', or assumptions than the people on this board:

In their looking glass version, it is Ukraine that is rapidly running out of capable troops, particularly infantry.

- ALLEGEDLY, UA leadership (officers and NCOs) was more or less wiped out over 2022, especially in the Bahmut 'grinder'. The UA are putting unwilling, ill-trained and ill-led noobs into the field, particularly non-Ukrainians.

- ALLEGEDLY, on some fronts these troops are being forcibly kept in the field by nAzov  fanatics, Mansoor Chechens and skinhead mercenaries (primarily Poles).

- ALLEGEDLY, several million bourgeois Ukrainians have fled overseas or bribed their way out of serving. 'NATO's proxy war' is extremely unpopular among Ukrainians under 30 across all demographics.

- ALLEGEDLY the Ukrainian domestic economy, which is run by (largely Jewish) oligarchs living outside the country, has never fully mobilised for war except inasmuch as it can profiteer off it.

- In any case, 'so-called Ukraine's' economy, infrastructure and society can never function separately from Greater Russia without being entirely rebuilt, ground up, and that's allegedly impossible under wartime conditions. The entire project is a scam, or at best a NATO-fed delusion dreamed up in London by, well (((((the usual suspects)))).

- ALLEGEDLY, since so-called Ukraine cannot sustain it, since 2008 UA is basically a NATO construct and puppet force, entirely dependent on NATO/NGO stocks and direction. These are now rapidly running down owing to poor discipline, wastage and pilferage.

- ALLEGEDLY, Western military organisation, experience and doctrine is ill-suited to fighting against the Russian army, and the hohols only do ok when they ignore it and fight in the Cossack (Russian) way. Giving them first line Western kit is actually an act of desperation; there is little else to send now.

- ALLEGEDLY, any quality edge the hohols might have enjoyed in 2022 in terms of drones, night vision, missiles, ISR, etc., is now largely closed and Ukrainian troops are now the ones getting trench bombed. China, being the world's workshop and wanting NATO to lose, is quietly providing huge quantities of pretty much anything Russia can't make itself.

****

Again, all these points are 95% false, so don't even bother to refute them or pretend I am advocating them. 

But negatives are by their nature (and by design) quite difficult to disprove, and there's enough 'supportive' anecdotes out there for people like McGregor and Big Serge to wave about, along with a bunch of handwavy 'you know nothing, bourgeois Western fools!' historical pseudo-analogues (Kursk, etc.).

....Since holding a different view of the world is impossible -- as others pointed out above -- the Russians choose to believe the above 'facts'.

And while folks like Rybar or Girkhin may admit Red Army performance in the SMO has also been weak, under their chosen set of facts, it's now merely a matter of bringing their 3x weight advantage fully to bear, and holding on before NATO's puppets, wait for it....

Collapse.

Like I said, don't bother to beat up this straw man. The point is, they can 'find' their own facts if they choose to, and have done so.

Well said, LLF.  Very good to remind us all that just because what RU side believes is false doesn't mean they don't believe it.  And it motivates them to continue.